Dissecting Deadline Day
It was one of the craziest transfer deadline days in living memory with City’s takeover and outlandish bid for Berbatov stealing the headlines. In the end City had to make do with Robinho (which is something I’m still finding difficult to type let alone understand), while Berbatov made his inevitable move from Spurs to the red side of Manchester.
Elsewhere it all seems a lot less glamorous but there were nonetheless a few deals that us fantasy managers will need to mull over during the international break. Here’s my brief views on some of the day’s most notable arrivals.
First off we have to start with looking at the Berbatov situation. While City’s bid introduced some fun into proceedings, a move to Eastlands never really looked on the cards. United got their man and now we have to consider just how he is likely to fit into the United puzzle. Presumably he’ll be set for 30+ Premiership appearances with Tevez and Rooney rotated around him. Ferguson could even have a new role in mind for Rooney which may involve drifting out wide *shudder*.
Hesitation is rarely a good thing but in the case of Berbatov and United perhaps it’s the best the tactic. United have tough fixtures against Liverpool and Chelsea next and those two games should give us time to work out the role the Berbatov will play and the effect he’ll have on the roles adopted by Tevez and Rooney.
Tottenham got Frazier Campbell on loan for the season as part of the Berbatov deal. Interesting one that - although it would appear that Campbell will likely play second fiddle to new signing Pavlyuchenko and Darren Bent, I can’t see the deal being made if the young striker was going to be limited to just a handful of games. I’m still thinking that Ramos opting for one striker with Bentley or dos Santos in support, particularly away from home but this signing would suggest that he perhaps has a more conventional 4-4-2 in mind. Campbell would offer some potential then if he can command a starting role - that looks a big “if” though.
Next up there’s Robinho at City to consider. Unlike Berbatov at United, we could never had anticipated this particular scenario but we’re going to have to get used to it. The first consideration is just how Robinho will be classed across the games - he should come into the games as a Forward in which case you’d certainly expect him to be just below Torres and Adeabyor in the pricing and up there in the same bracket as Berbatov/Tevez/Santa Cruz.
If that is the case I can’t see him being a popular fantasy purchase. While he’ll harvest in plenty of man-of-the-match awards and FPL bonus points, he is certainly not an out-and-out goal machine who is likely to threaten the 20 goal mark. He’s averaged a goal every four appearances for Madrid.
Alternatively, like Ronaldo, he’ll be classed in midfield and arrive at a similar price bracket to Gerrard and Lampard - in which case he could represent better value in some of the games. That would depend on his role in the City side which certainly poses a whole new set of questions. It appears the Hughes is likely to turn to Robinho to play alongside fellow Brazilian Jo or at least play just off the tall striker. That would see Wright-Phillips confined to the right wing rather than playing in the hole as he did so effectively at Sunderland. Alternatively Robinho could be used out wide but it seems unlikely that someone like Wright-Phillips will be deployed in a central position while Robinho is shifted wide.
Can Hughes build a side with Wright-Phillips, Petrov, Robinho, Elano and Ireland in midfield? It seems unlikely. Something or someone will have to give as a result of Robinho’s arrival and while Elano looks favourite to be marginalised, this transfer could also influence the returns of Wright-Phillips and Petrov who will certainly be in a week-to-week dogfight for FPL bonus points and man-of-the-match awards.
Elsewhere, Liverpool wrapped up the signing of Albert Riera from Espanyol - a deal which has been doing the rounds for several weeks of course. Riera gives Rafa options on the left of midfield and he could offer some fantasy potential but with plenty of uncertainty surrounding Rafa’s selection and formation, and of course Riera’s credentials, I can’t see many takers for him just yet. Riera was on loan at Man City in 2005 and didn’t exactly set the world alight in his 15 appearances. He joined Espanyol from City and made 72 appearances scoring 8 goals.
Steve Finnan has gone the other way in a 2 year deal. That leaves Rafa with Arbeloa and Degan contesting the right back spot. The Swiss defender is still sidelined with injury so Arbeloa has a clear run of starts for the next month or so.
On the blue side of Merseyside, Everton were quietly smashing their transfer record with the £15 million signing of Belgian international Marouane Fellaini. The midfielder is truly an imposing figure, standing at 6ft 4in - not surprisingly then he’s a handful in the air but is also known as a true box-to-box midfielder who will certainly add plenty of presence to the Everton midfield.
Still only 20-years-old, Fellaini is a prospect rather than the finished article - 11 goals in 79 appearances tells you that he’s by no means an obvious fantasy signing. His arrival should certainly lift Everton’s season though and should benefit the output of their players. It’s also likely to see Jagielka make the move back into defence which could see Lescott shifted to left back once again with Baines dropping out. In other words, expect a shake-up at Everton as a result of this signing.
George McCartney has rejoined Sunderland from West Ham for an undisclosed fee (although a staggering £6 million has been mentioned). That leaves just Lucas Neill and young Joe Widdowson to cover the left back spot while Behrami is employed at right back. McCartney will compete with Collins and Bardsley - the latter having been deployed at left back for the last couple of games. Keane cleared his decks in defence somewhat but selling Higginbotham back to Stoke.
Stoke also signed Tom Soares from Palace and Michael Tonge from Sheffield United to boost their midfield options - sound Championship players who should give them further resolve to fight the drop but hardly major fantasy considerations.
Finally, Newcastle brought in Ignacio “Nacho” Gonzalez and Francisco “Xisco” Jimenez Tejada. The latter could be a decent prospect and at 6ft 2in, will provide some height to the Newcastle forward line while Viduka is still sidelined. The 22-year-old has scored 12 goals in 44 appearances for Deportivo La Coruna. Gonzalez meanwhile arrives on a season-long loan deal from Valencia. The attacking midfielder comes with a decent goal record having scored 45 goals in 170 appearances for his Uruguyan club Danubio before joining Valencia.
any thoughts on the possibility of saha pairing up with Yakubu for the toffees? That is if he ever manages to not be injured…
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someones already rasied the point but berbies move surely will have an impact on the winkers return. Last year ronnie scored well because there wasnt an out and out striker to aim for. surely this year with berbie and tevez as his robbie keane ronnies output will be severly limited. Still good but nowhere near his 14m pricemark. in the long term berbs would look like the better purchase
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Reply by Phil Pino on September 2, 2008 8:15 am:
I don’t think so, more likely you’ll see a decrease on Berbatov’s goal-scoring… Ronaldo’s a greedy so-and-so and will still take people on and shoot irrespective of whether there’s a cross to be had!
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That’s an excellent summary Mark, brilliant writing… Obviously the Man City situation is the most interesting - what’s going to happen to the likes of Johnson, Kompany and Ireland? We saw at the weekend that Hughes doesn’t mind starting Elano on the bench so i’d assume SWP on the right, Petrov on the left with Robinho just behind Jo. Elano struggled in CM so i think Johnson & Kompany might hold the CM spots (they’ve done very well there so far!)
What fun eh? Still my chief concern is whether to gamble on A Traore or just to get Kaboul…
Tonge & Soares! Best signings of the window… Come on you Potters!!
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Reply by higgo on September 2, 2008 8:26 am:
where does ireland fit in? i had considered drafting him in but now not so sure. is he guaranteed a place?
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Reply by Phil Pino on September 2, 2008 8:32 am:
I think Ireland will be the one to lose his place to be honest. Hughes was willing to sell him at one point and although he’s had a good start i think Johnson & Kompany are preferred (for now). I’d hold off on signing him for a while…
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Excellent work as always Mark!
So what are we thinking about Berbs?? Get him in or wait and see?
My problem is that I’ve lost .2 mill on Tevez and dont wanna miss out on Berbs at a bargain price coz we all know how fickle a lot of the FPL managers are and that he’s going to skyrocket in price (if he’ll skyrocket in value is another question).
Should I make a move or not?
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Reply by Dwight K. Schrute III on September 2, 2008 8:38 am:
Depends if you think he’ll score many against chelsea or liverpool I guess. He hasn’t played in the last 3 games so is lacking match fitness too. I reckon you should hold off until their fixtures clear up, even if that means his value has gone up a bit in the meantime. There should be better options over the next 2-3 GW.
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Reply by Guy Incognito on September 2, 2008 12:04 pm:
Sounds like you’re one of the fickle ones…
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surely berba has to be an automatic ff choice, he is cheaper than other strikers within the “top 4″ clubs and is an all round fantastic player who brings both goals and assists. He will deffo be in my team along with SWP, going to bring him in asap though cos his price will surely rise and i dont know if my budget will stretch any further.
also, i understand the reluctance of bringing in berba when they have to play liverpool and chelsea but when at spurs berba regularly scored against chelsea plus man utd always do well against liverpool
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Reply by Marc on September 2, 2008 8:58 am:
I agree with you entirely.
At 9.2 he’s a steal of a striker and the head of Man U. You have to think he’ll have a honeymoon period of playing on his “dream” team where he will come through in fantasy points.
I’ll very likely sub Adebayor out for Berba and use the extra cash to bring back Fabregas and shore up the defense.
My only question is, do I do it now and take a 4pt hit (I’ve already brought in Defoe this week) or do I wait until next game week..
Surely Fabregas won’t return to 10.0 and Berbatov won’t rise more than 0.1 from this week?
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Reply by Phil Pino on September 2, 2008 9:22 am:
Why oh why are you guys talking about making transfers now?! All of you need to just hold your horses and wait until the end of the international fixtures! There will always be injuries coming out of these games so i’d suggest waiting at least a week (even if that means that extra 0.1m increase!) and seeing who comes out unscathed.
What good will bringing in Berbatov (or Defoe, Marc) now do if he goes and breaks his leg playing for Bulgaria (or England, obviously)? Patience is a virtue.
What has been said about having Berbatov is true, he is a must considering his price and team, but i prefer to see how he gets on. Man U aren’t exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment…
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 9:30 am:
What amazes me is that people will take a 4 pint hit just to avoid paying 0.2 more later on. At the end of the day, Berbatov has international duty before going to Anfield and Stamford Bridge, with a Champions league game in there. It makes no sense to bring him in unless its free.
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Reply by stevie b on September 2, 2008 9:34 pm:
ah, but there is less transfer activity as the season progresses, so, if you want to increase your squad value to a good level then you need to take a 4 point hit occassionally early on or you’ll miss the boat. Also, i’d say that the likelihood of a player getting a serious injury is negligable. Go on, live dangerously!
Saying that, I’m not getting Berbatov yet. I’m very wary of strikers over 8M as they tend to be a waste if they aren’t on fire. Midfield is a better place to invest.
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Fitness will not be an issue as he has 2 games for Bulgaria next week, fitting in should not be a problem as he is a quality player and whilst he may not score mega points against Chelsea and Pool his value will increase as soon as people realise they can buy a Man Utd 1st team striker for 9.2m.
I do however agree that there are better options for the next 2 gameweeks but if your talking about keeping Tevez anyway then yes a straight swap would be a good move.
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Reply by Pop Ooh Yeah F.C. on September 2, 2008 11:02 am:
Another interesting article Mark, thanks.
I agree about making transfers during an international break is a risk, but sometimes that risk has to be taken!
I’ve been trying to offload Tevez for a couple of game weeks now, as I only allow myself one freebie transfer each week, so Berbatov in now is well worth the risk at 9.2, as I’ve already taken a loss on Tevez.
I may not play him in the next couple of games, but he’ll do very in the long run, and at such a cheap price.
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But…. if you wait 3 games to pick up Berbatov he’s not going to be available at 9.2.
Catch 22.
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I can only say that Berbatov is a must in FPL teams. You look at the 9.2 he costs at the mo (though expect it to rise especially when Ronaldo is back) and compare to players around him, for example Keane at liverpool at 8.9, Santa cruz at 9.1, RVP at 9.4 or Anelka at 9.5. Which of these players has the potential to score more goals, to play in more games (rotation and injuries), to have more assists and bonus points.
Berbs scored 15 goals last season with 11 assists and I for one can see him at the very least replicating these returns and being value for money in a team that undoubtedly is on a better playing level than Spurs and that as such, will create and allow createn for/by Berbs.
Then does he represent better value than Rooney, Torres, Drogba and Adebayor? Well I will stick my neck out and say that over the season that his points per round ratio will be better than the said players.
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 9:20 am:
Fact is, I had him in a lot of last season at 9.5M for Spurs, so I’ll definitely bring him in for 9.2M at United.
I have Zaki, RVP (9.4), Yak (8.0) plus 1.9M. So RVP out or Yak? I have to wait I think and put him in in a few weeks.
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Reply by JimNastics on September 2, 2008 9:49 am:
I think potentially RVP is the best value for money of any forward in the game, if they can just keep him fit. The same happened last season, for the first 5 gameweeks or so he was averaging something like 9 points a game. The only reason he is cheap this year is because he ultimately didn’t end up with a big points total at the end of last season due to injury, and FPL generally set their prices on last seasons totals. If they did it by points-per-game, RVP would be one of the most expensive players in the whole thing. I’m hanging on to him as I think he could have a corker of a season, which means I need to decide between having Berba or a top-end midfielder.
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 10:00 am:
I totally agree. If RVP stayed fit, he’d score 20+ goals and a few assists. I think his goal-scoring record is slightly skewed due to all the sub appearances. However, the ‘if’ he can stay fit is the biggest if in the premiership.
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get berba in after their games against liverpool and utd in my opinion
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You guys bringing in Berba.
Will you bring in Ronaldo as well? I doubt I will - We’ll just have to wait and see……..
And too many people are getting hung up on the money side. There are always players in all the price brackets coming in and out of form all the time. Evern when I have a good year I’ve only mad 4-5mill over a season
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 9:48 am:
No Ronaldo for me. Even without Berbatov, I was struggling to find room for him.
As for the money side of things, I’d much rather finish top of my league with a 100M squad, than 3rd or 4th with a 110M squad. I think many people are going to come unstuck by this money chasing.
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I too am very very tempted. I’ve got bent and enough to sell him and get in berb as my only transfer. However, the guys are right about waiting and see. Last season i bought in anelka when he moved to chelski as he was on fire and i thought better players around him he’ll score a hatful. Oh how wrong was i! Got second in my mini league instead of first for that blunder. While i don’t think that the same will happen, two weeks and two hard fixtures to come is a long time in football. Of course this means he’ll score 5 on his first appearance and ill be gutted!
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Reply by Seaweed on September 2, 2008 11:07 am:
Ye but didn’t anelka play on the wing when he moved to Chelsea, leaving Drogba as striker? Berbatov is literally moving from being an out-and-out striker at Tottenham to being an out-an-out striker with simply a better team.
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Patience is a virtue…..but I couldn’t help myself and I’ve used my wildcard. Any suggestions for my team?
Reina (Schwarzer)
Bosingwa Clichy Traore A (Wheater Figueroa)
Bentley Lampard Young A Osman (Hamann)
Zaki Owen(c) Van Persie
Appreciate any thoughts. 1.2M in the bank. Thanks!!
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 10:07 am:
Personally I’d go for Davies and Yakubu, over Osman and Owen. Then I’d upgrade Hamann to Valencia or Gutierez.
Newcastle do have good fixtures coming up, as do Everton, so there isn’t much in it really. I’ve just never been a fan of the 3 players I’d get rid of.
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I think Berb will drop even further if he doesnt score against the 2 best defence (liv & Che) in the next 2 AWAY games. So I dont think I will rush into it as yet…
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Reply by Al on September 2, 2008 10:27 am:
This is really tricky. I can see a massive bandwagonning with transfers in of Berbatov over the next 2 weeks, even though (quite rightly) his potential to get major points against liverpool and chelsea is minimal, and we have no idea how he will fit into the United side yet.
It’s tempting to transfer him in just to save/make money, but following the daily movements of transfers it seems there is plenty of opportunities to get players in just to raise some more funds.
I think this is a real effect of there not being any ‘must have’ really yet in the season. Without bankers such as Lampard, Ronaldo, Torres, Adebayor etc there’s a lot of quite impulsive transfers going on.
This makes it pretty hard to stick with your squad when you’rre trying to use some logic and thought to look for where the points will come from instead of just transferring in the top scorer on last weeks MOTD!
But.. makes for a more challenging and fun FPL game I think.
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Thanks Akers. I’m planning on swapping Owen for Berba after Newcastle’s “easier” games run out. I thought Osman would be a good bet playing off the Yak. Davies or Bullard? or Faubert? West Ham seem to have an easy run coming up.
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Very well written article there. Well done and thanks, it’s a great help!
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Fellaini is a quality player who will have no problem adjusting to life in the premiership. It will be interesting to see how Berbatov fits in, but he’s a player that gets as many assists as he does goals so he’ll probably go straight in my side after the 2 tough fixtures.
Robinho WILL sulk at some point and WILL struggle (in my opinion of course)
Quite fancy a RVP, Berbatov and Zaki front 3.
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Reply by Gav on September 2, 2008 11:33 am:
RVP, Berby and Zaki would be immense I feel too. Got RVP and Zaki, just need to get Berby now.
Either gonna take out Bullard and get some cheapy like Delap or take out Deco (can’t see his form lasting all season, and I do feel he’ll be rotated quite a bit when champs league starts) and use the extra cash to get Berby for Alves. Just when to do it is the question really, if his price starts to rocket I’ll have do it soon and take a few points hit.
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Reply by Will on September 2, 2008 11:45 am:
17,000 people have brought in berbatov so far-I checked this time yesterday and it was about 7,000…
Its a shame his next two games are chelsea and liverpool away, but if you want him for 9.2 you need to bring him in now.
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 12:00 pm:
Plus, the general consensus was that a player can’t rise in the 7 days after their transfer, but this has been blown out of the water with the rise in price of SWP.
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 11:56 am:
Aye. I have Zaki, RVP and Yakubu at the moment with £1.9M in the bank. I think I’ll leave it until after Everton’s two easy away games (and United’s difficult away games), and then bring in Berbatov.
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Reply by Will on September 2, 2008 12:16 pm:
another 1000 have transfered him in the last 30 minutes.
(there must be more productive things I could be doing with my lunch hour…)
I’m thinking he’s likely to rise 0.2 before the next gameweek-going to have to take the 4 point hit I reckon!
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I’m holding fire on Berbatov for now. Better to wait until the next two games are out of the way and to see how Fergie is using to use him.
As for worrying about potential increases in his transfer value, I’ve signed Zaki this week and fully expect his value to rise by 0.4 before the next gameweek. Jump on the Zaki bandwagon folks, watch the money come in and then bring in the Berbs for whichever striker you have out of Yakubu/Adebayor/Anelka. (I imagine that most of you have one of these!)
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Reply by The Littlest Hobo on September 2, 2008 2:48 pm:
Bob, Ive got RVP, The Yak and Ade.
I have already used my free transfer.
Do you think I should still join the Zaki parade at 6.2m? If so, who should get the hammer?
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So Keegan is leaving Newcastle. If you have any Newcastle players get rid of them now!!! Buy Berbatov, Robinho and Fellaini. These will help you with the points in the next few weeks.
The team that does well in the league depends on the size of their cheque book. Now Man City has the biggest book in the world!!! This is real bad news for Liverpool and arsenal fans. One of those team will no longer be in the champions league!!!
Ronaldo costing at 13.9M by tomorrow will not be worth having as he is too expensive! Berbatov will get all the goals for United and Rooney is more of a provider like Tevez. I expect Berbie to get 25 goals plus if he stays fully fit and does not have an argument with greedy Ronaldo!
Money helps to pay for success in the premier league look at Chelsea and Man Utd for proof!!! Man utd would never win the league so much if they did not pay 20 million pound plus for their players - Rooney, Ferndinand, Vidic, Tevez, Berbatov, Carrick etc. Chelsea would not win two league without the money!!! Arsenal are struggling to win anything withour big investment - though the kid oftens play well. Man City will be in the top four by the end of next season if not this season - 100 per cent sure. But the effect of sure big investment only means it is no longer a game for the people but monopoly for the upper classes!!!
What do you lot think?
Other news:
Frazier Campbell for 5.5M for Tottenham? Is he worth it?
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Reply by themoz on September 2, 2008 12:52 pm:
Not when Zaki is 6.2.
Spurs will likely play 4-5-1 with Pavlyuchenk up front on his own and Bent coming on as an impact sub if needed
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PS:
With a possible global crash this month onwards I don’t see many people going to expensive football matches?! Clubs wiil see their revenue being halfed soon by supporters…… Too Expensive!!!
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Reply by Bob on September 2, 2008 12:40 pm:
Fortunately the global credit crunch has yet to impact on Fantasy Football.
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Reply by Al on September 2, 2008 1:03 pm:
Lol that would be bad. A weekly ‘GCC’ factor that suckes a random mill from your coffers.
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any news on rvp injury?
if he is fu*ked may have to swap him for berbatov, if not its anelka for berbatov got to be done today to get as he is cheap as chips. (price will go up and want to save money for other areas as he will be a must buy in 3 weeks time)
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Reply by Phil Pino on September 2, 2008 1:25 pm:
Will, i believe it has been mentioned that RVP is fine and has tottered off to international duty with Holland. Most likely to break an ankle or tear a ligament, it’s a seasonal ritual for him to play well then get a debilitating injury you know, so i reckon he’s due one right about now…
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Reply by Will on September 2, 2008 1:37 pm:
so you reckon van p out over anelka for baerbatov?
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Reply by Phil Pino on September 2, 2008 1:43 pm:
Oh no no Will, you misinterpret my attempts at humour… I would recommend not doing anything until after the international fixtures and then judging after that. If all 3 are fit after that, i’d personally get rid of Le Sulk. That’s Anelka. As you could officially tag Berbatov, Le Sulk too i suppose. Although that would be far more amusing if it was in Bulgarian perhaps.
Anyone know the Bulgarian for The Sulk??
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Reply by Jimrod on September 2, 2008 1:52 pm:
“Намръщеността” according to online translation… Doesn’t have quite the same ring as “Le Sulk”
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Reply by Steve on September 2, 2008 2:34 pm:
would Berbs not be Le Sulk II.
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With transfer deadline passed - any changes to consider for my team?
Clichy, Bosingwa, Jageilka, Luke Young (Shawcross)
Lampard, A Young, Bentley, Downing (De Riddder)
Adebayor, Alves (Zamora)
Should I pull the wildcard this week? As I want to bring in Berba, Zaki and dump underperforming players like Jags (though has 2 good weeks), Bentley, Downing, Luke Young
Or am I jumping the gun and just start with Berba in Adebayor out this week?
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What is it with people who are scared to lose 4 points over transfers if you are going to save 0.2 mil in the long run?? 4-8 Points is nothing when you have limited funds and you know that a players price will go up. ive just bought zaki and defoe - they are going to skyrocket in price, and they’re fixtures are excellent! If there are people umming and arring about not spending points - they are idiots, because you may not have enough money in the future to buy the players! you have to consider team value throughout the first half of the season - if your team value is in hardly any profit later on, you wont be able to buy any players later as they all shoot up! A fine example of this is Arteta in 2006/2007 - he went up from 6.5 mil to 8.5 mil - 2 million in half a season!! if you dont sacrifice your points now, your money and “free” transfer will be worth nothing!
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Reply by Will on September 2, 2008 2:05 pm:
well thats def one way to look at it. thats helped me make the desicion to bring in the big B.
though last year I missed out on the mini league by 15 points hence finishing second one to may 4 pint hits though the year cost me the league.
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Reply by The Littlest Hobo on September 2, 2008 2:31 pm:
But Will, you have only taken a part of matt d’s logic and not the other. Fine, Berbatov is likely to rise in price, even before he has kicked a ball for the Reds, but he does not have a favourable run of fixtures (at Anfield and Stanford Bridge).
Definately I can see the argument to bite the bullet and strike while the iron is hot (e.g. Arteta in 06/07 and probably Zaki at the moment), but you have to weigh up how much you think he will go up between now and the end of the two tough fixtures and how many points he will get in those two fixtures versus the player you are trading him for.
Who are you trading Big B for by the way? Are you taking a 4 point hit?
I am interested to hear from Mark and other experienced FPL players what their view is on this because I hear mixed opinions about such decisions involving the trade-off between points and money. This is really the aspect of the FPL game that makes it different to the one I have played before (Telegraph etc).
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Reply by Bedknobs and Boomsticks on September 2, 2008 4:06 pm:
Absolutely right Hobo, I bought Deco in last week for Bentley, and Defoe in this week for Ashton, both for 4 point hits and both to pre-empt rises and make a profit. However I won’t be getting BBT just yet as he won’t be worth it points wise, whereas the other changes should get me the points back over 2-3 weeks at worst. Making money early on is very powerful, but as Hobo says, you need to take a balanced view.
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Reply by stevie b on September 2, 2008 9:51 pm:
i agree, as there is less transfer activity as the season progresses, so, if you want to increase your squad value to a good level then you need to take a 4 point hit occassionally early on or you’ll miss the boat. Also, i’d say that the likelihood of a player getting a serious injury is negligable. Go on, live dangerously!
Once your squad is more settled you won’t need to make more than one transfer a week. Ultimately points are what you’re after, so looking at your squad as a whole is important, and you need to ask yourself ‘is this team likely to score well this week? and next week?’ Don’t get too caught up by getting in flavour of the month. I always think that value & fixtures are a joint consideration hence I’m not getting Berbatov yet. I’m very wary of strikers over 8M anyway, as they tend to be a waste if they don’t have a good set of fixtures or are really on fire. Midfield is a better place to invest.
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Gary,
Make your own decisions my son that is what being a manager is all about. Cheers
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Reply by Gary on September 2, 2008 2:19 pm:
Thanks Dr M - yeah should trust my instincts more but I am an antipodeon still trying to get to grips with this crazy game haha
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I agree matt, in my league last year the people who had sacrificed a few points to build up team value in the first half of the season were able to really make those extra millions count in the second half. I think my team’s value peaked at about 110.5 million last year, and tho i was mid table in my league at Xmas, in the end I won fairly easily because I could afford better players in the second half.
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Reply by The Littlest Hobo on September 2, 2008 2:35 pm:
So Will…..
If you intended to bring in Berbatov,would you sacrifice 4 points today to bring him in at 9.2m or wait until he has played the Liverpool/Chelsea matches?
Can you speculate as to his predicted value by that time?
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Reply by will on September 2, 2008 2:49 pm:
yes, definitely, if the choice is bring him in now or in 3 game weeks time. 21,000 managers have transfered him in so far this week.
By the end of this gameweek I think he’ll be up by £0.2 mil. His price by the time chelsea and liverpool are out of the way is more difficult to guess, but I’d say probably another £0.1 mil. If he scores against either of them, then I think he could go up by 0.4 between now and the time united play bolton.
Thats just speculation of course-but I think people have been waiting for him to get the move to united so for the next 2 weeks people are going to pile onto the bandwagon regardless of the fact hes only played 26 minutes this season
So yes, IMO its worth the 4 point hit.
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Reply by Steve on September 2, 2008 2:51 pm:
I agree with Will, I’ve just brought him in and taken the hit.
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One factor i am mulling over is Man.City. Now not, the effect that Robinho,Petrov, SWP and Jo might have at the offensive part of the playing field.
My thoughts are turning to what value could be achieved in there defensive quarters. We have Ball valued at 5.0, Kompany at 5.5,Dunne at 5.5,Ben Haim at 5 and Richards at 5.5. If Man City are to rise up the league then they must achieve more goals and reduce goals conceeded at the back.With purchasing power this should occur. Now my thought process is that Man. City should improve this season and be looking at a UEFA finishing position with Champions League positions being suggested in some quarters and that at the next transfer window, Man City should be able to strengthen further and as such which Man. City defender(s) represent great value??
Richards(England international) springs to mind as does Kompany(Hughes purchase) and as such I feel you could not only increase the overall value of your FPL squad but gain a fair few points as well. Thus, Richards at 5.5 or say Clichy at 6.5?? Remember, I am thinking longetivity, not short term gains. Over to you guys!
PS. Mark what do you think of this scenario as outlined.
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Reply by Dr. Rog on September 2, 2008 3:12 pm:
i too am considering bringing in robinho in week 17 for 2 gameweeks
mate - too early to tell
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The game is about points not team value which everyone seems to be obsessed with. I won my mini league last season despite in the end my team value being around 100.9, my value chasing freind was gutted about losing, his team was worth near 110, if you have any sense hold of on berbatov and bring in a player who will score you points right away
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Reply by will on September 2, 2008 3:17 pm:
Alex, I guess it depends how you prefer to play the game, I like to make 1-2 tranfers a week in the first half of the season and then try to make the extra value count in the second half.
Its not the ideal time to bring berbatov in with 2 away games against chelsea and liverpool as its unlikely he’ll score highly, but it is prefectly possible he’ll score against them. Who would you bring in to score points right away? Look at Downing vs Defoe last week-would you have guessed Downing would get nothing at home to stoke and Defoe would score 16 away at everton? My point is that if you’re bringing Berbatov in for the long haul (as i intend to) is it not better to bring him in now, despite the crap fixtures, rather than assume he’ll just get the regulation 2points vs liverpool and chelsea and buy him when he’s back to £9.5/9.6?
If people wait on Berbatov they’ll have to pay an extra 0.3-0.4 that could be used to strengthen their team elsewhere.
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if you’re buying him in to keep him rather than to sell him on for a profit, as long as you’ve got some cash to spare I’d say it’s better to wait rather than take a 4 point hit. just my opinion but there you go
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I thought there was supposed to be a 7 day price freeze on transferred players? after which all NTI will be cleared? I’ve noticed that SWP’s value has gone up too which seems to go against this
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Schwing, link to FISO website:
http://www.fiso.co.uk/forum/vi.....;start=385
It does appear that the 7 day price freeze isn’t valid, which is why SWP went up today. So crackthecode is a bit off for a lot of the new players, but the guy (diamondplus) is doing an amazing job. Until he sorts it it’s best to go onto the FPL website and look at transfers in and out.
Regarding the City defence, as Mark said in the article, the offensive players will vie for the bonus points, and with not a great defence it’s not really worth it. I am keeping my eye on Kompany though - i think he played midfield v Sunderland and may get some attacking points.
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Reply by Schwing on September 2, 2008 3:40 pm:
Thanks. Amazing job indeed, likewise Mark for this site.
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i need some help with my dilemma, i have zaki v persie and agbon, was goin to swap A young with fab for free transfer(after international games!) but am tempted now to bring in berb, who do you reckon will be more value in points? im thinking get fab as better run of games or go for dream strike force!!
oh yeah, top of fantfooyscout league! nice as only week i will prob be top!
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 3:48 pm:
Same situation but with Yakubu not Agbon. I honestly don’t know what to do. I’m leaning towards forgetting Berba for the time being. I’d hope Yak would score a few in the next two games, and therefore bumping his own value up. Also, if Van Persie scores in the next game I think his value will go up also. As for Zaki, I think he’s in there for the rest of the season.
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The team of the most value on FPL (albeit a lot in the bank at the mo):
Made 6 transfers
Team value: 95.8
In the bank: 6.9
Overall: 60 (1,344,661)
August: 60 (1,344,661)
Not exactly doing well eh? So maybe chasing the best value team isn’t gonna win it for you - and who cares what your team is worth at the end of the season…
With that said I’ve just dropped Ade for Berbatov
(Though I’ve not played my wildcard yet, was tempted to chase the cash)
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zaki will def be staying, he seems to be the benjani of last season(but better) i was thinking Agbon for Berb or Fab for Young, my head says Fab but the looks of Vpersie Zaki and Berb could be a belter!
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Reply by fatboy on September 2, 2008 4:06 pm:
berb has really thrown a spanner in the works for me:
my mid is gun:
Lamps Bentley Cecs Young Downing
with Zaki, Defoe & Ashton u/f
but i really do think berb is too good to turn down at this price and i’ve already taken a 4pt hit this week so far.
the way i see it, i’m dumping downing (bring in kim) for berba (replacing ashton) next week but kinda tempted to play the old wildcard now, trade around to get a bit of extra cash and sort out the team in a few more places
whats the verdict
to get my team to where it wants it to be its going to cost 12pts over 3 weeks. use the wildcard or save it?
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I would not be surprised if Berbatov scores against Liverpool - for some reason Liverpool don’t get good results from Man Utd games that much. This happened even when Liverpool were winning the league in the 1980/90’s.
Defoe, Zaki and Berbatov are essential if you want to have a chance of winning your league. Laursen, and defenders from Chelsea/man utd and Liverpool are also essential! James and the Fulham gamekeepers are great ideas. Don’t foreget Fleacher is Man Utd best midfielder at the moment! If you want a winning team by the end of the season consider these tips!
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 4:07 pm:
I agree.
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I would not be surprised if Berbatov scores against Liverpool - for some reason Liverpool don’t get good results from Man Utd games that much. This happened even when Liverpool were winning the league in the 1980/90’s.
Defoe, Zaki and Berbatov are essential if you want to have a chance of winning your league. Laursen, and defenders from Chelsea/man utd and Liverpool are also essential! James and the Fulham gamekeepers are great ideas. Don’t forget Fleacher is Man Utd best midfielder at the moment! If you want a winning team by the end of the season consider these tips!
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 4:08 pm:
I disagree.
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I would not be surprised if Berbatov scores against Liverpool - for some reason Liverpool don’t get good results from Man Utd games that much. This happened even when Liverpool were winning the league in the 1980/90’s.
Defoe, Zaki and Berbatov are essential if you want to have a chance of winning your league. Laursen, and defenders from Chelsea/man utd and Liverpool are also essential! James and the Fulham gamekeepers are great ideas. Don’t forget Fleacher is Man Utd best midfielder at the moment! If you want a winning team by the end of the season consider these tips!
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 4:10 pm:
Who’s Fleacher?
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Reply by ? on September 2, 2008 10:54 pm:
Consider what tips? Spouting out popular names isn’t really giving tips.
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SuperDaz, I don’t think anyone is suggesting decimating your points total each week to bring in the 5-6 players that are going to rise the most in value, just there is a definite trade off.
And also, you’ve forgotten to mention that the team you gave as an example only joined in week 2 so has played 2 gameweeks instead of 3-which is a much bigger reason they aren’t doing so well rather than making too many transfers.
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What do people believe is the transfer threshold when you might as well just go ahead and play the wildcard?
I saw a team that played it (on purpose, not by Wayne-cident) to save 8 points. Had it been me, I think I would have just taken the point-hit and saved it (even had I made those same moves). It got me thinking, if not 3 transfers, then at 4 or 5 or more. At some point, you may as well just play it even if you think you may have another big transfer week contemplated down the road. So, what say you?
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 5:09 pm:
If I felt I had to make 3 or more transfers I’d use the wildcard. I have on occasions taken a 4 point hit, but spending money on transfers doesn’t usually pay off.
Stick to your free transfer, and use it every week to freshen your squad up.
Even if I’m happy with my team, I look to see if there is a player that has more favourable fixtures and transfer them in.
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Reply by tommypembers on September 2, 2008 5:21 pm:
I’d take the hit, eight points isnt that much especially if you’re sure the players you’re bringing in will stay in your team for a prolonged period of time and will get you points. If you’re going to take the hit for just one week that is very risky indeed and probably not worth it.
Use the wildcard at xmas time when you can totally change your whole team, getting rid of the dead weight which aren’t playing well and have lost value meaning you cannot transfer them out
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I meant Fletcher from man utd can be a very good price if you look at his price, his goals and form!
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I meant Fletcher from man utd can be a very good price if you look at his price, his goals and form!
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Would anyone contemplate taking an 8 point hit to swap Alves for Berbatov and Adebayor for RVP… I reckon they’ll make the points up in the long run and as they are players I want - does it make sense to get them in before their prices rises?
Still seems to early to play the wildcard?… or not as there are other changes I would make.
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Buying RVP is risky until you know one day before the match he is fully fit. Beside Adebayor WILL score two goals in the next game to give all supporters some faith! Berbatov is an essential purchase only if you can afford it. You might want to wait until Berbie finish his two international games first as he might get injured?
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Great read as usual Mark, You got all the points covered. I have to admit the premierleague will suit Robinho though
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Is robinho on the FPL yet? I can’t find him
Shall I get rid of Gutierrez? I have 9.7 in bank if I get rid of him to spend on who???
Cheers guys for your help
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Akers, i have same dilema as you
Cech (scwarzer)
bosingwa johnson laursen evra (paintsil)
arteta deco young petrov (smertin)
Van persie yakubu zaki
im going to put in berba for yakubu or VP, but which one!! doh. if i put in for yak i will be left with 0.1 after a free transfer
i would like to do it soon as someone mentioned above berba isnt on crack the code yet and his NTI is 25,000 this week already. do you think he will go up tongiht? im leaning towards the yak however hes at 8.1 so i wouldnt make profit on him yet.
any advice?
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 7:47 pm:
Van Persie should go up soon, and as I paid 9.5 I want my 0.1 back.
Yakubu should do well, but that 0.1 left could well be -0.1 in 2 days.
Tough choice. I’ve decided to get Yak out for berba, and strength the midfield later (as Taylor was going to be benched anyway).
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The profit on Berbatov over the next two weeks will be enough to make you forget about losing that 0.1m on Yakubu.
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Lads,msjor dilemma here, im pushing the wildcard button- what do people think about flethcer, and with ladyboys return to the manyoo setup, and anderson, will he get his game? (and berbs of course…)…and what about the AnderSON as an alternative?
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 7:57 pm:
I don’t think so. He may play in the Champions League against Villreal due to Scholes’ suspension.
Remember, not only is Berbatov in, but Nani’s suspension is over, and Anderson will have recovered fully from the Olympics by now. Carrick won’t be far off now aswell.
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yeah, true. was also gonna go for Ireland, but i reckon he’ll be on he backburner now, with all the signings. anyone reckon Ireland will stay in the first team?
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Good we are thinking of Berba for Man Utd before his price rise. It might be worth putting Berba in the Liverpool game and dropping him in the chelsea one afterwards? I know in my league Berbatov is the player that we all have brought since last night as he will take over the Ronaldo points role. As for other Man Utd players like Carrick, Fletcher, Tevez, nani and even Rooney they all will be rotated more often than Berbatov. With Berba he hates to be on the bench!!!
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Will - my bag, I didn’t look any further than his points total and thought that sucks, even if he has got a valuable team.
I think this argument will rumble on - I’m still going for players I think will score points. And am only pushing the boat (in terms of 4pt pen - none this season yet) out if I think they might rise by more than .2m. Not just sub folks in to make cash.
Then thats the beauty of FPL - as we’ll be having same debates next year!
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I am currently looking to trade one of my midfielders for Fabregas at the moment and it has come down to getting rid of either S. Downing or D. Bentley. Is Bentley going to score goals/assists with Tottenham or get the bonus points that made him so valuable last year? What roles are each of them playing, because I can’t watch the EPL on TV because I live in Australia. Are their roles similar to last year?
Who would you trade? Any ideas would be much appreciated.
Bentley or Downing.
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Reply by Dr. Rog on September 2, 2008 9:11 pm:
bentleys value will fall soon i think, downing’s later in the week. for me i think bentleys fixtures are slightly better for spurs over the next few games so i would stick with him to see if he comes good
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Reply by paul on September 2, 2008 9:21 pm:
I would say drop bentley. I prefer to have a star from a team in my squad like downing at middlesb. He didnt do well so far but he will be playing every match while bentley is one of a dozen decent players at tottenham and if he doest perform he will be rested sooner or later or will only be on the pitch for 50 or 60 min….just my opinion
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if youre an Aussie, id say bentley, if your anywhere else downunder, id say Downing…make of that what you will
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Drop Downing like a bad flu!!! Bentley will shine faster than a star!!!
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Reply by CK on September 2, 2008 9:49 pm:
I had Downing last season, he was a consistant dissapointment. I expect him to be average again this season. The odd big week, loads of quiet weeks. Get rid!
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Reply by Akers on September 2, 2008 10:26 pm:
Downing is a form player. If he has 2 good weeks get him in, otherwise he can can long quiet spells.
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I think Nasri looks like a great alternative to Fab. He looked superb against Newcastle. I’m a bit worried about ditching fat Frank for Deco though. As for Bentley, he will come good. All you need is just a little patience - Guns n’ Roses.
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