Euro 2012 – Wildcard Tactics

To wildcard or not to wildcard? That’s the quandary facing Fantasy managers ahead of Matchday 2 of Euro 2012 tomorrow afternoon. Prior to the tournament kick-off, some had pencilled in a Matchday 3 wildcard with the idea of taking advantage of possible rest and rotation but the results so far suggest it’s perhaps best to pull the trigger before tomorrow’s round of matches kicks off…

Group A
Of the 12 teams that have played so far, Russia are one of only two that could, feasibly, qualify as group winners after Matchday 2. A win over Poland tomorrow, combined with a draw in the other group game between Czech Republic and Greece would leave Dick Advocaat’s side on six points, with the next best side in Group A on two points. Such a scenario would perhaps make Alan Dzagoev and co highly susceptible to rotation in Matchday 3, leaving the other three sides in Group A with everything still to play for.

If Russia fail to win tomorrow and Czech Republic don’t lose their match with Greece, all four teams would have everything still to play for heading into the final round of matches. Such a scenario would leave a Matchday 3 wildcard far less crucial.

Group B
A defeat against Germany this Wednesday could already leave Holland staring into the abyss. If Bert Van Marwijk’s side lose to their bitter rivals and Denmark draw with Portugal, the Dutch would already be out. Such a scenario would see Germany qualify for the knockouts and need just a single point against the Danes in their final match to ensure they finish as Group B winners. Joachim Low could hand starts to the likes of Marco Reus, Toni Kroos, Andreas Schurrle, Mario Gotze or Miroslav Klose for the final match, while Van Marwijk could feasibly change his side if they have nothing to play for – this could make the Germany and Holland Matchday 3 lineups difficult to second-guess, with a wildcard coming in handy.

On the other hand, a win for Portugal over Denmark would mean Holland could still qualify as runners-up, regardless of their scoreline against Germany – a commanding victory over the Portuguese, combined with a Germany win over Denmark in Matchday 3 would ensure their passage into the knockouts. Paulo Bento’s men will be confident ahead of Wednesday’s match with Denmark, given that their opponents conceded 27 shots against the Dutch – the likes of Cristiano Ronaldo looks a strong captaincy option for the second day of Matchday 2. If results go as expected, Portugal and Holland look likely to have all to play for over their final two games, with Germany the ones most likely to rotate come Matchday 3; whether Van Marwijk keeps faith in his misfiring attackers is another matter entirely, though.

Group C
After their win over Republic of Ireland, in conjunction with Spain and Italy’s draw, Croatia are in a similar position to Russia. If Slaven Bilic’s side triumph against Italy and Spain only draw with Republic of Ireland on Thursday, Croatia would already be through as Group C winners – this, however, looks a real long shot.

Following Spain and Italy’s tentative draw yesterday afternoon, both can now no longer afford to be cautious. With Republic of Ireland and Croatia now up next for the duo, Fantasy managers will be backing Vicente Del Bosque’s and Cesare Prandelli’s men to do the business in their final two games. Antonio Di Natale made a case for his first-team inclusion after climbing off the bench to notch against the Spaniards, though with uncertainty over game time, Antonio Cassano looks the safest route into the Italian frontline. Del Bosque’s decision to exclude all his recognised centre-forwards promotes goalscorer Cesc Fabregas in addition to Andres Iniesta in our thinking – the Spain manager admitted his thinking is that “matches open up more in the second half”, hinting he may well keep the same starting lineup and throw on a forward as opposition backlines tire.

Group D
England and France both see a shift in their strength of schedule after today’s round of matches. With only two of the 12 sides scoring more than a single goal so far, it’s become apparent that tactics are a little more cagey in the opening round of games – this could be the situation again later on today, with a draw perhaps suiting Roy Hodgson and Laurent Blanc.

France arrive on the back of a 21 match unbeaten run, while England’s pragmatic approach under the former West Brom boss has harvested back-to-back 1-0 wins; a stalemate, however, wouldn’t be detrimental to either side when you consider Sweden and Ukraine’s recent defensive displays. The Swedes have a single clean sheet in their last eight, while the co-hosts have kept out their opponents just once in their last six; Fantasy managers will be far more confident of handing the likes of Franck Ribery or Karim Benzema the armband for such showdowns, with Ashley Young and, come Matchday 3, Wayne Rooney alternatives for Hodgson’s side.

In Summary
All factors considered, then, the use of a Matchday 3 wildcard looks less favourable as the tactic of choice for Fantasy mangers. As mentioned above, only Russia and Croatia can clinch their spot as group winners in Matchday 2, though the latter, in particular, look far less certain to do so. While the likes of Germany could qualify for the knockouts if they beat Holland, it won’t guarantee them top spot – Joachim Low’s side will still require at least another point to make sure of topping Group B in their final match.

If one or both the Group D matches finish in draws today or, like the Denmark v Holland scenario, goes against our expectations, we’ll have yet another situation where rest and rotation seem highly unlikely on the final batch of matches.

We’ve rolled out a Wildcard Poll for you to have your say on the matter – as always, you’ll find it in the middle column of the front page.