Fixtures

Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 21 – The Weak

Having analysed those sides with Strong schedules over the next four to six Gameweeks, our second instalment takes a look at those for whom the fixture list is not smiling so kindly. Thankfully for Fantasy managers, very few teams of Fantasy relevance are adversely affected, with only one of our featured six currently residing in the top half of the Premier League table:

Aston Villa

villa21

Earning three points at the expense of Sunderland could prove absolutely crucial to Paul Lambert’s embattled team. After failing to fully capitalise on a relatively kind festive fixture list, the Villains now have a storm to weather as they face Arsenal, Liverpool and Everton in the next four Gameweeks. The visit of West Brom should provide some relief but neither league nor Fantasy points look immediately forthcoming from the Midlands outfit.

In the short term, then, investment in a defence that has just one clean sheet in the last seven games doesn’t look well advised and owners of Nathan Baker and Brad Guzan might want to consider their options. Christian Benteke’s woeful form has looked to be a key factor in Villa’s plight and these fixtures won’t help him get back on track. Similarly, Gabby Agbonlahor’s winning strike against Sunderland might have earned him some early wildcard suitors if it weren’t for these fixtures. It is worth noting, however, that the picture brightens considerably around Gameweek 23, just in time for a late wildcard.

Swansea

swansea21

Michael Laudrup’s side put up a spirited fight against Man City on New Year’s Day and used their momentum to knock Man United out of the FA Cup. Unfortunately, the Swans face a further two consecutive tests of character in the form of another trip to Old Trafford and home game against Tottenham – fixtures which should be enough to delay any investment.

Swansea defenders have been something of a disappointment this time round and any remaining owners of the likes of Ashley Williams and Chico Flores may decide to cut their losses. The Swans’ attacking assets have not really earned themselves any fans over the last few months but Wilfried Bony’s brace against Man City and last-minute winner in the Cup showed some of the promise he showed during his wonder season in the Eredivisie and has brought him onto a few radars. The good news for suitors of the Ivorian is that, as with Villa, Swansea’s fixtures pick up considerably around Gameweek 23, making him a better call for a late wildcard than an early one.

Fulham

fulham21

Rene Meulensteen now has an unenviable job on his hands. Having steadied Martin Jol’s sinking ship with two wins from the last three, the Cottagers boss has a home game against Sunderland before the fixtures turn ugly, with Arsenal, Man United, Southampton and Liverpool in the following five. Fulham’s fixtures shine a cold light on an already unpopular source of Fantasy players.

Anyone who thought that Meulensteen’s arrival might bring a budget defence to the table may want to wait for a while before assessing the likes of Sascha Riether and Fernando Amorebieta. Steve Sidwell’s fourth goal of the season could have made him an unlikely budget prospect but not, surely, with these fixtures. With a goal in each of his last three games, it would appear that the new coach has indeed resurrected the dormant form of Dimitar Berbatov but, again, the schedule counsels against investment.

BE WARY OF

Newcastle
A spate of injuries and suspensions could hardly have come at a worse time as the Magpies brace themselves for the arrival of Man City next week. With games against Chelsea and Tottenham also in the next six, Fantasy investment in Alan Pardew’s side looks set to be slow. Clean sheets in particular look scarce on Tyneside in the short-term with Fabricio Coloccini and Tim Krul injured and Mathieu Debuchy suspended. Yohan Cabaye is also an injury doubt after missing the FA Cup loss to Cardiff – frustrating, given his consistent production – while Loic Remy’s stuttering winter form hardly fills his owners with optimism for the forthcoming fixtures.

West Bromwich Albion
Still without a permanent manager since sacking Steve Clarke, the Baggies are a little rudderless now. Not an ideal situation considering that the next six Gameweeks contain games against Southampton, Everton, Liverpool and Chelsea. Such a schedule should deter investment in a defence that has  kept just one clean sheet in ten games. Recent goals from Saido Berahino and Nicolas Anelka have registered their names on a few Fantasy radars, for use in a 3-5-2 formation, but caretaker manager Keith Downing continues to tinker with both team shape and player personnel, allowing us to steer clear until the schedule clears a little.

Cardiff
A triumphant FA Cup victory over Newcastle heralded the arrival of the Bluebirds’ new gaffer Ole Gunnar Solskjær. He has been handed a bit of tough task in the league, though, given that, while home games against West Ham and Norwich look eminently winnable, those fixtures come either side of back-to-back visits to the two Manchester teams. With Cardiff’s assets hitherto attractive primarily for defensive rotation, this schedule looks manageable but there’s a word of warning that Solskjær’s offensive-minded style could compromise the defensive solidity that his predecessor brought to the team. The flip side of that is that players such as Peter Whittingham and even Craig Noone could become more attractive, but it might be best to use these games to monitor the impact of the new regime.

3,399 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Steeton
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Earlier in the week i took a hit but after the walcott news and a few other injuries i just decided to give up and use my wildcard. Is the -4 now invalid? Just wondering because beside "Gameweek transfers" it says 0

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    1. Phaze 1
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      yes

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      1. Steeton
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Ah well thats a bit of good news, Cheers!

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    2. Kane Toads
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      yes - same for me.

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    3. GunsnRoses
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah. No hits

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  2. sinik
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    I would hesitate to double up in any position..only exception maaaaybe being Silva/Yaya

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    1. Phaze 1
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I wish they put my yaya post in the hot topics

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      1. sinik
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        link?

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    2. KunBaYaya My Lord
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Agreed. Yaya and Silva double up has done me just fine.

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      1. sinik
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Yaya is a stupid buy. If you already have him, that's different..

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        1. KunBaYaya My Lord
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Don't disagree at 10.1 is a bit expensive. I bought his at 8.5 and have been laughing ever since.

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          1. sinik
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            😆

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  3. sinik
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    this is where I currently sit

    Mannone (Lewis)
    Burner - Mert - Coleman (Ward, Chester)
    Hazard - Silva - Wally - Sterling (Ki)
    Suarez - Rooney - Negredo

    1 FT, 2.5m available..

    hoping I can get away without taking a hit

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    1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      ozil...simple math

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      1. sinik
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        no one on Arsenal really showing they're good enough to finish all his chances..Arsenal is no Real Madrid..definitely an option but not rushing and monitoring the prices and considering another option

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        1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          then i suggest oscar or eriksen......

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          1. sinik
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            nope 😉

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        2. Pepereina Pizza
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          I think that Arsenal's quality is such that the rest of the team will pick up some slack. It wasn't long ago that they were succeeding without Walcott.
          Ramsey will be back soon enough, Cazorla is very good and was an FPL essential in the past. Ozil is quality, and Arsenal seem serious about finding a new striker.

          Yes, you can survive without a 4pt hit, surely. You have no pressing issues to WC over. Walcott -> Cazorla/Ozil, IMO

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          1. sinik
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            Giroud was firing on all cylinders at the time though, Bendtner is injured and Podolski isn't good enough to be a CF..it could happen but I'd like to wait and see..also Aston Villa did beat Arsenal away 3-1 😉

            anyways always prefer to wait for cup games to finish nowadays before I do anything

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            1. Pepereina Pizza
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              in the members section, compare Cazorla (last 4 GW's) to Cazorla (entire season) and use averages.
              There is a pretty obvious shift occurring.

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              1. sinik
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                10 years, 3 months ago

                yeah but not necessarily towards a viable FPL player which is the important thing

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  4. Alonso The Great Midfielder
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    surely oscar is better shout than santi? although it means double up with hazard.cant afford ozil though..

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    1. Phaze 1
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Santi is less likely to face rotation now that Wally is out. Oscar will continue to carry the risk of rotation around his neck. Arsenal have better fixtures also so its not so cut and dry

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      1. sinik
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Ramsey will take his place back I think and Santi will rotate

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        1. Phaze 1
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Forgot about him lol. Doesn't Santi play wide left for the most part and Ram in the double pivot?

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          1. sinik
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            tbh I don't know where everyone will play lol..Ox coming back, Gnabry in the picture..on merit Ramsey has to be given the time over Caz who has been relatively poor this season

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            1. Pepereina Pizza
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              AO-C isn't getting a game anytime soon. even with theo out, Ramsey is having a career season and back soon, and they have a new top-dollar signing to show off (Ozil). It's apparent AW prefers playing Rosicky and Wilshere to Gnabry.

              Cazorla not at 2012 speed right now, but you've seen what he's capable of. ANyways, I'm not going to force him into your side, but he's getting further from being a bad idea lately.

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              1. sinik
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                10 years, 3 months ago

                if he works out for you more power to you, but he's clearly the 3rd best FPL mid pick from Arsenal (and 4th best attacker)

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  5. Pepereina Pizza
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    my current team

    Mannone (Lewis)
    Coleman Mert Ward Baker Clark
    Walcott Ramsey Mutch Cabaye Hazard
    Suarez Lukaku Rooney

    0 FT, 3.8m itb

    suggestions, please. Most of them start with a "W"

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    1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      toure/silva

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  6. Podolskistan
    • 13 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    thoughts on Eriksen plz, nice fixtures and decent form (last 4 matches 27 points)

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    1. sinik
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      on free kicks and both corners, has license to roam, BUT plays left mid in a flat 4-4-2..

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    2. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      i might get him or oscar.....

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    3. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I brought him in. Worth the punt as I think he's undervalued and will rise quite a bit.

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  7. BootlegRascal
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Before Theo got injured I was planning on using 2FT on
    Sterling>Silva and Negredo>Ade

    Post injury news I'm now thinking:
    Sterling>Eriksen and Walcott>Santi

    Leaves me with Cabaye and Rooney as doubts though.

    Thoughts?

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    1. Alonso The Great Midfielder
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      i dont know about santi....ozil is better pick...

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      1. BootlegRascal
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        0.2 short. Would need a hit to get Ozil

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  8. Will Yaya Keep It Up?
    Phaze 1
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Posting again for Sinik and for the zone in general.

    The case against Yaya 'LUCKBOX' Toure. I wanna start off by saying that I know players can go on streeks/purple patches and when they do you just have to ignore logic and hop on but it doesn't last forever. I feel like that time has come for Yaya and those who don't currently own him will be making a massive mistake by drafting him in their W/Cs.

    So far this season he has scored 10 goals from 14 shots on target. Historically his conversion rate is 30% so doing somple math on average he should have around 4 goals(4.2 if u wanna be a nit) in the league this season. Anyone who understands football knows that no one in the history of the game has kept up anything close to the 71+% Conversion rate that Yaya currently has so we'll be expecting that number to come way down. Peak Messi was at 48% CR just for comparison and Yaya isn't Messi.

    If he maintains his current shot totals for the rest of the season then on Average you would expect him to return around 4 goals in the remaining games. Thats not excatly what you would want from someone who currently cost 10.1. He basically averages 0.75 SOT per game and spends most of his time as a DM. You can bring in players with those numbers for a fraction of the cost.

    Yeah he's on Pens while Aguero is out and takes some FK but those are few and far between. Do not be fooled by his early season God-mode and actually look at him as a player. Compare his underlining data to other players then decide if you wanna spend 10.1 in the hopes you don't fall further behind.

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    1. BootlegRascal
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      If I had from early on I'd keep

      No way I'm paying up now though. Same with Coleman.

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      1. sinik
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        exactly.

        and if you already have Coleman, don't get Baines (either in place of or in addition to) unless the difference between the two is less than 1m and even then..

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    2. sinik
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      also consider (as you alluded) that with Silva on the field he will play far deeper.

      if you look at the trio's PPG when all starting together, Kun is on 9.125 and Sliva and Yaya are tied with 6.25 (and Yaya's inflated by free kicks)

      he's one of the best players in the league, but that doesn't really make him a viable FPL player at this point in the season with his two teammates fit and at that price

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      1. Phaze 1
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        FKs that won't continue to go in at current rates also. Agree he's one of the best in the league but thats as a DM for the most part.

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    3. Balotellitubbies
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Had him for the first AND ONLY (hopefully) gameweek last week and he did get me the jammy goal

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    4. KunBaYaya My Lord
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Regardless what the stats are, he has put up huge numbers. Having him since gw1 has been along with Ramsey my best fantasy decision this year. Do I think he will continue on this form, no probably not but for so many people to hold out on his good form because "he plays deep" or "he is a casual players player" seems a bit dense. Put his numbers on any other player and I would guarantee they would be the talk of the town.

      All I'm saying is fantasy is about picking the right player at the right time. You buy cheap and sell high. I don't believe in essentials so once his form deeps he'll be out but for the time being I'm much happier to have him then to be without him.

      At 10.1 he is a bit pricy. But at 8.5 or even 9 to 9.5 was still a decent value. I wouldn't put him in a wc team now but I'll take his 120 to the bank.

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      1. Kevin Twine
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        "You buy cheap and sell high"

        Maybe in a stock market portolio, yes.

        This is fantasy football we are talking about here - just bring in the player who you think will get you the most points - that's the aim - not to get the most team value at the end of the season.

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        1. KunBaYaya My Lord
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Yes and I touched on that when I said "You pick the right player at the right time" However, there is an element of "stock market" in this game. I have lost -16 to transfers all season but my tv is now 112 and selling value at 108 meaning instead of having mutch or ravmo as my fourth midfielder I now have Silva.

          Part of this game is building smart team value so you can afford a better fantasy team.

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    5. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I hope you are right. Too stubborn to get him in. There I said it. 🙂

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    6. Biancazzurri
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Is it even worth drafting a Man City midfielder now, with all the cup games and replays?

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    7. The Governor
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Sometimes though, football defies logic.

      I already lost points due to my stubbornness regarding the Ramsey situation. "He can't score again next week, surely. He's only ever scored 3 in a season, he's rubbish!". All the signs suggested he wasn't going to keep it up. But I finally succumbed, and he did keep his points ticking over nicely.

      I have also lost enough points refusing to get Yaya in. "He only ever scores free kicks, and he won't keep that up", I kept telling myself. Finally succumbed to that transfer too, and happy with my choice.

      I could swap for Silva, but he's too injury prone for my liking, and is more liable to be rotated at any random gameweek.

      Finally, on the "FPL defies logic" point... I had Coutinho for an age. His underlying stats were good, and was "due" a big haul any gameweek now... But it never came. Shipped him for "less shots" Yaya and never looked back.

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    8. RedLightning
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Yaya is one of the few players who has outperformed his stats for two successive seasons. He is also now playing for a manager who believes in attacking play and allows him to bomb forward early instead of waiting until the score is still 0-0 after an hour's play before releasing the brakes. Like Ramsey, he is the more attacking player in the double pivot - neither of them is the merely defensive midfielder that some imagine. There's no African Cup of Nations this season. And he has added effective free kicks and penalties to his armoury. Ignore him at your peril!

      And it is quite wrong to dismiss him as merely The Casual's Choice. He is also the choice of many discerning and successful FPL managers. The term Casual's Choice would more aptly be applied to players like RVP (who was the most popular choice as captain in the early weeks of the season but has since been dropped by most active managers) or Gazzaniga (who is still being purchased by some of the casuals in preference to Kelvin Davis).

      Yaya may not maintain his current form, but until that shows signs of deteriorating he will remain an excellent option to be one of our 3 big-hitters in midfield.

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  9. chicrah
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Was planning to do Cabaye > Eriksen while waiting for Wally's news. Now that he is confirmed to be out, is Walcott > Eriksen still a sound move? Or considering I have extra funds from Walcott should I go maybe Oscar?

    Current front 8.

    Walcott--Coutinho--Ki--Silva--Cabaye
    ------Suarez-----Lukaku-------Hooper

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    1. Phaze 1
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Mabe just Walcott --> Oscar? not really a fan of hits

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      1. chicrah
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        No hits. Havent done any transfers yet.

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  10. Steeton
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Anyone considering Bony? 46 goals in 62 games last season for Vitesse Arnheim, the lad is a goal scoring machine

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    1. Steeton
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Feck meant to just say that he scored 42 goals in 62 league games for vitesse, obviously werent all last season

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    2. chicrah
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      He is on my watchlist now. I owned him last time and he only played one game before he got injured. So bad memories there.

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      1. Steeton
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah had him in my team at the start, Can see him have a very strong second half to the season once he stays injury free

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        1. chicrah
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          True this. He is having confidence now with the ball and is not afraid to have a go at it.

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    3. Phaze 1
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      not totally sold yet but I'm keeping an eye on him for now

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    4. sinik
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      that was Eredivisie 😉

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    5. sinik
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      and Michu the main man when he returns

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      1. Steeton
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Not think Laudrup could revert to his early season plan of Michu just behind Bony? No Europa league to worry about until Feb 20th aswell

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        1. sinik
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          possible but Michu has a track record and Bony been spotty

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          1. Pepereina Pizza
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            You must mean the track record for being a 2pt wonder for the best fixtures run his team will see this season.

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            1. sinik
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              he was carrying an ankle injury the whole time so they finally capitulated and had him get surgery

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  11. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    For those asking about Rooney availability,he is back tonight for Sunderland

    Ian Abrahams ‏@BroadcastMoose
    Man Utd team news v Sunderland - Wayne Rooney, Michael Carrick, Nemanja Vidic, Patrice Evra & David de Gea are all set to return.

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    1. sinik
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      UGH, he better be fit and not rushed!

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    2. sinik
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      he's deleted this tweet

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      1. BigManBakar
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        No he hasnt,he posted it 17 hours ago!

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        1. sinik
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          egg on my face! didn't expect it to be that old 😆

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  12. Balotellitubbies
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    RMWCT for next week:

    Mannone
    Coleman Shaw Baines
    Silva Oscar Hazard Ozil
    Suarez (c) Giroud Lukaku

    McGregor Mutch Clyne Ward

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    1. Darsh
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Strengthen the forward line

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  13. Darsh
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Which is the best defender for the next 1-3 weeks out of these 4: Evans, Chiriches, Azpilicueta and Nastasic.

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    1. Pepereina Pizza
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Nastasic for me.

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      1. Darsh
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        He played in the FA Cup right? I hope he's rested in the Capital one cup. Otherwise I don't see him starting on the weekend.

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  14. Koflok
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    I'm working on something interesting (or at least to me it is).
    It's inspired by Perchinho's work on the Season Ticker index earlier.

    Basically I'm trying to adjust the Season Ticker 'index'.
    That index is what determines whether a fixture is easy (blue) or hard (red).
    I believe it MAY be a bit outdated with the difficulty index, as playing away to Hull is considered easier than playing away to West Brom for example.

    The higher the index, the more difficult it is playing there (either scoring or CS depending on which ticker you're using).

    I'm currently working on the Clean Sheet, because it's more useful with the ticker.
    Still on 'Home', but 'Away' will just basically vice versa.

    Basically what I did is trying to find a function that fit both factors in
    1. Goals Conceeded at Home (GC)
    2. The Fixture Difficulty
    so far in this 20 GWs where all teams have played 10 games at home and 10 away.

    Because again using Hull as an example, they have managed to keep a low amount of goals conceded but that may be due to their relatively easy opponents at home so far (NOR CAR WHM AVL SUN CPL LIV STO MUN FUL}.

    Whereas Cardiff have had harder opponents in (MCI EVE TOT NEW SWA MUN ARS WBA SOT SUN).

    -----

    The figure for Goals Conceeded at Home it's pretty straight forward.
    Just use the actual figure of Goals Conceded.

    -----

    The figure for Fixture Difficulty is a bit harder, so what I did was RANK how teams performs offensively on away games based on how many goals scored on away games.

    For short, I call it 'Away Attacking Index' (AAI)

    http://s27.postimg.org/pds9ekwbn/rank.jpg

    So MU and Arsenal is 1 (most goal scored in away), Liverpool is 3, etc until Palace, Cardiff, Sunderland (least goal in away) is 18.

    After that I summed up the index of each team's 10 home fixtures. I have only done 5 randomly picked teams so far.

    ----

    Now combining both factors, we need to find the function. I ended up with this

    = (24 - GC) * (200 - AAI)

    where GC is Goals Conceeded at Home,
    AAR is the Ranking Number,
    200 and 24 are constant. (Maximum Rank Total and Average Goal Scored)

    ----

    With that I come up with this figure so far.

    http://s30.postimg.org/fnhwlbgsh/index.jpg

    Obviously still a work in progress, but I hope you get the overall.
    Will get a better picture with the whole 20 team done.
    And probably I can adjust the constants to make it more evenly distributed but still reflect the true value.

    P.S. Yes I got a lot of time in my hand.

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Nice. You deserve an upvote for all the time you put into this.

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      1. Koflok
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers Acqua.

        I know people won't be bother with the nitty gritty which I post above but hopefully the result will turn out to be something at least useful a bit.

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    2. Get up ya bum
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Nice. Tell me when it's done so I can steal it 😀

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      1. Koflok
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        😀

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    3. Absinthe 42
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Huh a hulked post that isn't on the hot topic list. I wonder how many more of these there are I've missed.

      Anyway lovely work.

      Slight bubble deflation in that it's all been done before and is freely available on Tommy's site "All Things FPL".

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  15. Bug
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    So is there a consensus on who is the best replacement for Walcott?

    Silva, Gerrard, Lallana, Cabaye, Oscar, Ozil, Cazorla. (I have Haz & YYT)

    How do you even begin to analyze who to select?

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    1. chicrah
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      You forgot Eriksen

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      1. Bug
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks mate..real mate you are... compounding my already complex problem.. 🙂

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        1. chicrah
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Happy to help. 😀

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  16. Strificus
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Alright, either balls of steel or pure stupidity:

    http://i1304.photobucket.com/albums/s535/BayStBullies/FPL-Strificus_zps4663775e.png

    WC played and will not be getting Aguero.

    Hopefully it pays off; either way... I joined to have some fun and watch some football. At least things will be interesting.

    😛

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      How so? Aguero not even fit yet. 1-2 more weeks out

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      1. Strificus
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I plan to not get him in even after recovery; unless my roster needs a major shake up.

        The original plan was to set money aside or have a route to getting him into the team when healthy. Now I'm going to actually see what happens if I don't add him at all.

        It could be dumb; but I'm treating this season as a learning experience. I've already went half the year with Aguero, Ramsey, Rooney, Walcott, etc. Maybe the injuries were telling me something? ha

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  17. BootlegRascal
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Is Sterling likely to get one more week?

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    1. RamaJama
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Yes, Sturridge not declared fit, so he'll max come on as a late sub

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  18. The Sarjeant
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Why do people look at 'points per game,' it really doesn't tell you the whole picture.

    People should look at 'minutes per one point,' as this gives us a better indication.

    If a player gets injured in the first 32 minutes, then that's counted as 'one game' rather than 32 minutes, and the chances are an attacking player probably wouldn't have picked up points by then. The same can be said about returning from injury, when players are eased back into games. They may get a 20 minute run around at the end of the match. And also some players were only given a short amount of playing time after they travelled back from international duty.

    If we look at 'minutes per one point' we can then detect which players are the best to own in FPL, if they're given the minutes to do so.

    It is then up to us to decide whether the player will be given sufficient minutes.

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    1. Willis.
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Your not very bright, are you?

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      1. The Sarjeant
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Why? Clearly your not.

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    2. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Yep, it's blatantly obvious to anyone that Chuba Akpom is the player with the most potential for points......

      Points per minute is FAR more skewed by appearances of limited minutes than points per game is.

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      1. The Sarjeant
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I'm not talking about players like that though?!

        I'm talking about players like Oscar and Hazard.

        Oscar has a higher 'minutes per one point' than Hazard. This shows that if Oscar plays more minutes, he should outscore Hazard.

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        1. Billy Gilmore
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          My point is inherent nature of the points means you can't extrapolate them. Not to mention he'll never play as many minutes as Hazard.

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          1. The Sarjeant
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            But if you factor out the injuries, and the times he was given a short amount of playing time in the past due to international duty, then he may not play as many minutes as Hazard, but he'd have played more on the whole.

            This suggests that Oscar would be a better pick due to the reason as well as being a lot cheaper as well.

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            1. Billy Gilmore
              • 11 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              So he scores VERY slightly more points per minute (almost identical), but will get less said minutes, so Hazard will score more on your own logic.

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              1. The Sarjeant
                • 10 Years
                10 years, 3 months ago

                Well yes. But then you've got to take into account the cost of the two players.

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        2. Willis.
          • 12 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          But the fact is that Oscar will never get more minutes than Hazard, so he will never outscore him....

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      2. Get up ya bum
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Akpom (c)

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        1. Billy Gilmore
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Essential. 😀

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    3. sinik
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      The more accurate way to depict a player's contributions SOLELY on a points basis involves weighting the players point contributions against the minutes played out of total possible minutes.

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      1. The Sarjeant
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        That's what I'm talking about sort of. I don't mean FPL players that we wouldn't even consider. I mean like Silva Vs Yaya, Oscar Vs Hazard, Eriksen Vs Lallana etc.

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        1. sinik
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Minutes per point is not accurate.

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          1. The Sarjeant
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            But points per game is?

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            1. sinik
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              I didn't say that.

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            2. Willis.
              • 12 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              Yes, because we are interested in the number of points a player is likely to fetch for us in a given GAME, not minute you neanderthal.

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              1. The Sarjeant
                • 10 Years
                10 years, 3 months ago

                If a striker is given a ten minute run around in 10 matches, and doesn't score or assist, he'll get 1 point.

                If in the next 5 matches he plays 60 minutes in each and he scores a goal in each game, he'll have got 6 points in total.

                We then know from then on he's going to be starting every match.

                The points per game for him will be low. But the minutes per on point will be higher, suggesting that he's a good pick. But the points per game will suggest he's not a good pick.

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                1. Billy Gilmore
                  • 11 Years
                  10 years, 3 months ago

                  Points per start is a far better yard-stick imo if you think a player is going to start more regularly. Extrapolating points from cameos to full games is fraught with danger.

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                  1. The Sarjeant
                    • 10 Years
                    10 years, 3 months ago

                    I'm not saying to do any of this btw. I was merely pointing out the fact that points per game isn't a good way to look at a player.

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                    1. Willis.
                      • 12 Years
                      10 years, 3 months ago

                      Are you fecking serious? Points per game takes into account the number of minutes a player is likely to play in a match. Points per minute doesn't.

                      Now do us all a favour and STFU.

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                      1. The Sarjeant
                        • 10 Years
                        10 years, 3 months ago

                        Erm no.

                        Read what I write carefully, and maybe your small mind will understand things a bit better.

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                      2. Willis.
                        • 12 Years
                        10 years, 3 months ago

                        Hmmm... Yes, I'm trying to see where you're coming from but I can't seem to get my head that far up my ass.

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                2. Willis.
                  • 12 Years
                  10 years, 3 months ago

                  Ok. Listen up you ignoramus. You seriously think that a player with a high points per minute who plays 60 minutes every game is a good pick? Just think about it for a second. Why the feck would you want a player who only gets 60 minutes a game? Wouldn't you much rather get a player who has a lower points per minute but who plays 90 minutes a game? The latter is getting an extra 30 minutes every game, meaning he has more chances to score.

                  Your stupidity makes my blood boil.

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                  1. The Sarjeant
                    • 10 Years
                    10 years, 3 months ago

                    Are you retarded mate?

                    What did I say up above?

                    'It is then up to us to decide if the player will get sufficient minutes'

                    Pathetic.

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                    1. Willis.
                      • 12 Years
                      10 years, 3 months ago

                      So you're conceding that points per minute, on its own, is not a good indicator because you also have to factor in how many minutes a player is likely to get in a match? Isn't that what points per game is? Points per game = points per minute x expected minutes in a game?

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                      1. The Sarjeant
                        • 10 Years
                        10 years, 3 months ago

                        No because points per game includes times when a player missed 50 mins of a match because he went off injured. Or only played a small part of the match due to certain reason in which we know won't happen any more. Like a new player settling in, or returning from international duty.

                        This version excludes that.

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                      2. Willis.
                        • 12 Years
                        10 years, 3 months ago

                        Listen buddy. Have you ever wondered why no one on here agrees with you?

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  19. President John F. Keninnsie
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Who do you think will get the most clean sheets in the next 3 games?
    A) Arsenal - avl, FUL, sot
    B) Everton - NOR, wba, liv
    C) Chelsea - hul, MUN, WHU

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Arsehole

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      1. Get up ya bum
        • 14 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Bit harsh

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    2. Strificus
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I went with Terry, Kosc, Distin

      If Distin is healthy, my bases should be covered.

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      1. President John F. Keninnsie
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I'm gonna have Baines and Kosc but my third defender I will only keep for 2/3 weeks (will be downgraded to afford Aguero when he returns). Was leaning towards Mert or Coleman but Mou will probably keep it tight against United so Terry might be a good idea.

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    3. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Arsenal. Chelsea too if they can shut United out like they do all the big clubs.

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      1. sinik
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        how nice that you still think of us as a big club 🙂

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        1. BeachBadger
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          It's why I said club and not big team 😉

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          1. sinik
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            WHOA WHOA WHOA

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            1. Get up ya bum
              • 14 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              2nd biggest club in all of Manchester

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              1. sinik
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                10 years, 3 months ago

                LOL

                oh you comedian you..

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            2. BeachBadger
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              😀

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    4. Get up ya bum
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Chelsea

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      1. President John F. Keninnsie
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks all.

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  20. SuperOsçarBaby
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Till the end of this GW, who are likely to get the double-rise?

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    1. Acquafresca
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Eriksen (rose tonight)

      Maybe Ozil/ Oscar

      Thats about it

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      1. Colonel Klink
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        I'm hoping Sagna will rise again, now that more folks have broken out their WCs.

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        1. Colonel Klink
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          To answer the question, I think he might, though mids hive the highest likelihood bec/ of Walcott.

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        2. sinik
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          WC transfers don't affect price changes

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      2. SuperOsçarBaby
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Lallana, will he rise another 0.1 at his rate?

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        1. Get up ya bum
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          hope so

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    2. sinik
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      no one will double rise..I would be surprised if Walcott even drops twice

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      1. Kevin Twine
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Ozil and Eriksen will probably double rise, crystal ball man.

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        1. sinik
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Eriksen needs nearly 40,000 NTI to rise again and Ozil needs another 60,000 in to double rise.

          Lots of week to go so I could be wrong but eh

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  21. BeachBadger
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    If GJ is out I need a defender for the next three weeks. 2.2mil in the bank after ditching Walcott and 1FT. Already have Coleman and Mert. Any suggestions?

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    1. President John F. Keninnsie
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Same dilemma as me! I'm leaning towards Terry or Mert (Kosc in your case).

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      1. BeachBadger
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah I have Szczesny in goals too so I don't think I could go with Kos haha though it is tempting. Terry maybe alright. Think he's not great value though, but it is only for a couple of weeks I suppose.

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    2. Get up ya bum
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Kolarov 😉

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      1. BeachBadger
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Dare I?

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        1. Get up ya bum
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Do it!

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          1. BeachBadger
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            Checked out the fixtures. Newcastle and Tottenham away hmmmm

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    3. Blue Lion
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Azpi

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      1. BeachBadger
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        He's nailed on for a few weeks ins't he? But why go with him over Terry/Cole?

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  22. Colonel Klink
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    In doing WC transfers et al, who are the players most likely to leave the Premier League, as opposed to loan deals or switches to other PL clubs?

    Cabaye's the only one that comes to mind, but I have no clue.

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    1. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Can't see anyone too important leaving in January. Only ones I can think of who may want out are RVP and Mata but can't really see them leaving yet. Maybe Kevin De Bruyne? He's not too important fantasywise I know haha

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      1. Colonel Klink
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Mata--good spotting on that.
        De Bruyne, yes. Isn't he super-injured a la Theo, though? I do remember reading that, though.

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        1. BeachBadger
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Possibly I haven't been following him I must admit haha

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        2. Billy Gilmore
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Yep, he's also done his ACL.

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      2. sinik
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        RVP going nowhere

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        1. Billy Gilmore
          • 11 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          I bet he wishes he stayed with Arsenal now ay? 😆

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          1. sinik
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            yeah so that he would still have 0 Premier league medals and be likely to squander another right?

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            1. Billy Gilmore
              • 11 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              Arsenal are top of the league with a donkey up top. Imagine what they would be like with a world-class striker.

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            2. Colonel Klink
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              10 years, 3 months ago

              Arsenal aren't about to squander another, we're just not the best side. City have it locked.
              When the season started, we were destined to drift into obscurity. I wouldn't say this normally, but who's drifting now?

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              1. sinik
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                10 years, 3 months ago

                anyone who didn't expect a transition like this after the greatest manager of all time left a pretender with a terrible squad doesn't understand football.

                intelligent Man Utd fans are annoyed, yes, but not giving up.

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                1. Colonel Klink
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  10 years, 3 months ago

                  United will be fine. Honestly, I think recent matches have been an anomaly. United can make up the point difference and will be back in the top four in a month or two.
                  Honestly, I have no wish to trash talk club teams. Anyone who gloats over United failing at the halfway mark is tempting fate.

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                  1. sinik
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 10 Years
                    10 years, 3 months ago

                    I read a good post by a City fan on Reddit today..and one of the comments struck me as true:

                    "This empathy for your rivals can be stronger than that, even. You want your rivals to do well in general, it's exciting and it makes the rivalry more important. It's not even fun to take the piss if your opponent is mediocre consistently. (Well, maybe a bit). It's hilarious to take the piss when the great rival has a terrible year, but you don't want it to last."

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                    1. Colonel Klink
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 10 Years
                      10 years, 3 months ago

                      Truth to that. I'm not from Scotland, or even anywhere near Europe, but I think the glee Celtic felt at Rangers' demise wore off quickly. Not much fun in a one-horse race.
                      Anyway, it's January. United are the world's biggest club. The entire landscape could change in the flash of a signature (or two).

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                      1. sinik
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 10 Years
                        10 years, 3 months ago

                        one can only hope..the Glazers make it a unique situation..

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          2. Colonel Klink
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 10 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            If RvP had been fit this whole time, MUFC wouldn't be in this mess. And I'm a jilted ex-RvP supporter (read: Arsenal). He won't leave this year. The little boy in him dreamed of United so...

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  23. Koflok
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    @SHIFTY

    Thanks for the excel function an hour ago. Sorry saw the reply just now.

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  24. Blue Lion
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    How is this for a potential WC team.

    Marshall/ Mannone

    Baines Mert Azpi Chester GabbD

    Lallana Ozil Silva Hazard Gnabry/Noone

    Aguero Suarez JRod

    0.6itb

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    1. Get up ya bum
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      I give you an A

      Very similar to mine actually. You must have lots of coin though.

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      1. Blue Lion
        • 10 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers mate.
        Ya i guess Kolarov instead of Azpi for you?
        Well the coins is needed.Not WCing soon,so need the spare change for covering up price rises.

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        1. Colonel Klink
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 10 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          I think I must be alone on this, but I just really don't see Gnabry breaking into the mids in a huge FPL sense. In a sizeable Arsenal sense, yes, but not in a bankable FPL way. But everyone keeps posting sides with him in it so I think I'll pipe down. Plus, I'll probably be proven wrong and get him when his price has risen...

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          1. Get up ya bum
            • 14 Years
            10 years, 3 months ago

            You're far from alone. I wouldn't touch him

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        2. Get up ya bum
          • 14 Years
          10 years, 3 months ago

          Fair enough. That's a big advantage of going early. If I waited I'd have to compromise somewhere and I hate compromise!
          Coleman/Kos/Kolarov/Ward/Eriksen
          Baines/Mert/Azpi/GabD/Lallana

          Very similar, I just have the cheap alternatives. I'm povo 🙂

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  25. BigManBakar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Pick one folks

    A) Evans + Nasty + Silva
    B) Azpli + Distin + Oscar

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    1. PINKFISH (SANCTIONED AND GA…
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

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    2. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      A

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  26. Najoman86
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Who to play alongside Mertesacker & Clyne this GW?

    Bardsley (FUL away)
    Chester (CHE home)
    Ward (TOT away)

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  27. PINKFISH (SANCTIONED AND GA…
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Some fast sprinters in the prem. I'm liking Navas and Lennon atm.

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    1. SuperOsçarBaby
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Valencia

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      1. PINKFISH (SANCTIONED AND GA…
        • 11 Years
        10 years, 3 months ago

        He's a card aint he.

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    2. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Walker

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    3. Get up ya bum
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Tiago llori (pool defender) holds the sprint record at sporting, the same club where ronaldo and nani used to play.

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    4. Acquafresca
      • 12 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Walcott, Willian, Hazard, Schurrle

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    5. AppleDunk
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Ade

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    6. Caine & Co.
      • 13 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      agbonlahor

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    7. President John F. Keninnsie
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Mert.

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    8. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Hernandez?

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  28. Deicide
    • 12 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    How many times do you guys think that Aguero will drop in these 2-3 weeks?

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    1. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      He'll be lucky to drop one more

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    2. Najoman86
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Would be surprised if he dropped price further. Safe to assume only FPL ghost teams are the majority with Aguero in their sides... can't see his price dropping. If anything, with the Winter WC in play for over 20k players... he could start pushing a price rise in the next GW or two

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  29. SuperOsçarBaby
    • 11 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Who will score more points in the next 5 GWs, Hazard or Oscar?
    remember, oscar score 2 points more than hazard when oscar is in the top form in the first 10 gws

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    1. SuperOsçarBaby
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      *3points

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    2. Get up ya bum
      • 14 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      Wish I knew 😕

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    3. Billy Gilmore
      • 11 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      But now Hazard is in better form than Oscar...

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    4. BeachBadger
      • 10 Years
      10 years, 3 months ago

      How many more did Hazard score after that though?

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  30. AppleDunk
    • 10 Years
    10 years, 3 months ago

    Is Azpilicueta nailed on till Ivanovic is back?

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