FPL Bonus Points Analysis

Recently, in the summer wasteland between seasons, I have spent some time looking at 2014/15’s Fantasy Premier League (FPL) statistics, hoping to find some interesting information to help me rise up the global rankings next season. Recently, I wrote a post where I tested some of my Fantasy football assumptions and afterwards I was asked if I had considered looking at FPL bonus points. At the time I hadn’t looked into bonus points much because they weren’t guiding my assumptions and account for just 8% of all FPL points. With the top five bonus point scorers also being the game’s highest points scorers it seemed evident that bonus points are just a ‘supercharge’ for existing point scorers; indeed, maximum bonus points were only awarded to players with a score of less than six (before bonus points were added) on 26 occasions throughout the season, a total of just 6% of total occurrences.

Furthermore, there is a 71% positive correlation between total season score and the total bonus points scored by the 530 players to have scored any points throughout the season. Whilst this is not a perfect correlation, it must be considered as strong and indicative that high points total equals more bonus points.

All this seems obvious, but having looked a little deeper into the data, I discovered a few curiosities that I thought it would be at least interesting to share. Foremost amongst these is the bizarre case of West Ham’s Mark Noble scoring zero points in Gameweek 21 but still picking up a bonus point in what was a  turgid 1-1 draw at Swansea. Additionally, Eden Hazard picked up a Bonus Point System (BPS – more on that later) score of 25 in the 1-0 home win against Manchester United and collected three bonus points, whilst there were 310 instances throughout the season where a player scored more than 25 but scored no bonus points. That these types of thing can happen at all adds a seeming randomness to the game, and almost makes me want to give up any form of planning for the new season and pick a team by Ouija board consultation.

Nonetheless, here are the key points of interest I found looking into the bonus points from last season.

Goalkeepers

Attacking returns are the rarest of things for a goalkeeper, with the only return all season for a shot-stopper being Tim Krul’s assist in Gameweek 37 when Newcastle visited QPR. However, despite its rarity, it did not earn him any bonus points.

However, there were far more occasions when a clean sheet earned bonus points. In all, there were 224 clean sheets attributed to goalkeepers, and 56 of these (25%) were accompanied by bonus points. What is interesting is the distribution of these, as goalkeepers of struggling, relegation-threatened clubs picked up more than their fair share of bonus points when compared to top sides. The highest number of games where a goalkeeper picked up bonus points for clean sheets, by club, was six, attributed to Leicester, followed by five each for Hull, Burnley and Sunderland. At the other end of the table, the goalkeepers of Manchester City (two games) and Chelsea (one) were rewarded for their efforts infrequently despite sharing 31 clean sheets between them, and no Arsenal goalkeeper picked up a bonus point throughout the season.

The explanation could come from the fact that these keepers were busier than their Champions League-chasing counterparts, and the players in front of them struggled to make as big an impact as the world-class attacking players further up the league table. More frequently they were the stars of the team’s performance when picking up clean sheets because they had to work for it.

Tom Heaton of Burnley was the second highest scoring goalkeeper of the 2014/15 season, despite playing for a club that was ultimately relegated. He ascended to this position through a combination of longevity (he was one of only five players to complete every minute of the season) and saves, but he also racked up a creditable ten clean sheets. Whilst this was not the league’s highest, he was amply rewarded when he did get keep them, picking up bonus points in five of these games, because he had to work much harder than a top-level goalkeeper

Heaton was one of seven goalkeepers to register more than 100 saves in the season, and the average bonus points scored by each of them was seven (for Heaton, it was 11). By contrast, the average bonus points of goalkeepers with under 100 was only 1.66. The correlation between bonus points and saves across the whole division (of players who contributed at least one minute throughout the season) was 72%, which is relatively strong.

Additionally, there were other interesting points to note. Top-five clubs Manchester United and Tottenham each recorded three clean sheets where the goalkeepers were rewarded with bonus points, representing a total of 25% and 33% of their total clean sheet hauls respectively – a higher ratio than those around them. This is testament to the value of both David De Gea and Hugo Lloris to their teams. But, generally, goalkeepers from big clubs are seldom rewarded for clean sheets with bonus points.

Conclusion: In summary, Fantasy managers shouldn’t shy away from picking goalkeepers from relegation-threatened clubs, providing they are playing regularly; they make saves and they have a chance of accruing a reasonable number of clean sheets. The research shows these hard-working keepers are more likely to be rewarded with bonus points than those playing for teams at the top of the table.

Defenders

By contrast, defenders from struggling clubs will not be rewarded like their goalkeepers for clean sheet performances, probably as punishment for allowing him to be so busy.

Of the 852 clean sheets attributed to defenders, 346 (41%) were rewarded with a bonus point return. However, players from the bottom three earned far less than this; QPR (23% of clean sheets received a bonus point return), Hull and Burnley (both 28%) were amongst the lowest totals for the season, despite their goalkeepers being rewarded on 50% of occasions for these teams. Unexpectedly, Crystal Palace defenders received bonus points in only 21% of their 28 clean sheet performances throughout the season, but when we consider no team’s players recorded fewer clean sheets throughout the season, it becomes understood that they belong in the same category as the relegated teams; it appears that it is only their attacking prowess following the appointment of Alan Pardew that kept them up.

Following the trend seen so far, it would be expected that the top three clubs in the league would have been rewarded with bonus points for protecting their goalkeepers, who as we have seen are rarely recognized. However, this isn’t the case. The clean sheet returns that earned at least one bonus point for the leading clubs are Chelsea (27 clean sheets, 40% of total clean sheets), Manchester City (18, 32%) and Arsenal (25, 47%). These ratios are a lot lower than the teams who they beat to the top of the table like Manchester United (52%), Tottenham (56%) and Liverpool (57%).

What this indicates is that clean sheets are not the leading factor in awarding bonus points for defenders. Previous analysis I have done has shown that clean sheets are a clear indication of total points throughout the season, but running the same regression analysis technique against bonus points shows a correlation of only 46%, which, whilst positive, is weak. Indeed, a stronger correlation that exists with bonus points for defenders is scoring at least one goal in a game, which is 64% correlated. (It should be noted that on only one occasion did a defender score more than one goal in a match, Chris Smalling in Gameweek 25 at home to Burnley – wonders never cease). Again, not perfect, but certainly stronger. (For the record, defender assists are awarded in 47% of games in which they appear on average; note more than one assist or goal can occur in a game.)

Conclusion: Previous analysis has shown that clean sheets are an important metric for defenders, and in 41% of cases (on average) it will bring in bonus points. However, it is not guaranteed. A better chance of securing a bonus point or three is from a goal from a defender, however there were only 91 of these in the 2014/15 season, so the chances of finding them is remote. I for one won’t be putting them at the heart of my defensive strategy in favour of clean sheets, even if that means sacrificing the hunt for bonus points.

Midfielders and Forwards

As mentioned, 41% of clean sheets result in a bonus point for defenders. However, 54% of games where a midfield or forward contributes at least one attacking action (a goal or an assist) will see bonus points awarded.

The bonus point system certainly seems to favour attacking play; 76% of the top-50 bonus point scorers last season were midfielders or forwards, including nine of the top ten, with Liverpool’s Martin Srktel the only defensive exception. Within the midfielders and forwards (for sake of convenience, I will refer to these groups collectively as ‘attackers’ from now on), the club with the lowest percentage of games where attacking actions were rewarded (43%, 11 points lower than the 54% average mentioned above) was Everton, where their attacking players were starved of bonus points by the equally attacking instincts of defenders Phil Jagielka, Leighton Baines (21 bonus points each) and Seamus Coleman (11). Southampton fared similarly badly (48%) owing to the remarkable performance of their defensive assets throughout the season (six goals, seven assists). Recent Fantasy Football Scout articles have looked at the strong prospects  of Everton’s new midfield recruit Gerard Deulofeu and Southampton’s recent signing Juanmi, yet prospective owners of these attack-minded players should keep this information in mind.

Despite this, there is a loose pattern based on league position. The top five teams most rewarded for attacking actions are Arsenal (64% of games where a player converts at least one attacking action is rewarded with a bonus point), Manchester United (63%), Tottenham (61%), West Ham (60%) and Chelsea (58%). West Ham is the obvious exception here, as their attacking assets were rewarded with bonus points more often than those from the average team – a point worth considering as they enter the new season under the declared attacking intent of Slaven Bilic.

The explanation for this lies in how the game assigns bonus points. The bonus point system (BPS), which is used to calculate the distribution of bonus points, arguably favours attacking play: a defender scoring a goal will score 12 BPS, but a midfielder gets 18 and a forward 24; a key pass gets one point, but it takes three clearances, blocks or inceptions for a defender to score as many; clean sheets are valued at 12 only.

It seems that the more attacking activity that happens, and the more a player tries to create a goal through positive actions, the more he will be rewarded when he finally converts. There is evidence to suggest that attacking players are more handsomely and frequently rewarded by bonus points; the number of instances where an attacker is awarded points climbs from 204 (for one point) to 298 (three points), whereas for defenders the reverse is true (168 down to 102).

Conclusion: It appears that attacking players benefit more frequently from bonus points than their defensive counterparts. Looking at the underlying statistics about the frequency of attacking metrics should give Fantasy managers a better chance of finding these bonus points. Amongst the best prospects are those forwards and midfielders with a strong chance of picking up an assist or a goal, who play for teams where defenders are unlikely to pick up attacking returns.