Digest

The Digest – Gameweek 3

Our final look back at Gameweek 3 assesses Bournemouth’s hat-trick hero, City’s perfect combination of form and fixtures, and the growing competition for our attention in the Chelsea midfield…

The Player

Callum Wilson’s clinically taken hat-trick at Upton Park earned Bournemouth their first ever win in the Premier league and has sparked a major bandwagon across the Fantasy games.

With many wildcards being wielded, the Cherries lone frontman picked the perfect time to announce himself as a value candidate for our three-man frontlines, with over 166,000 Fantasy Premier League (FPL) managers snapping up his services. As Fantasy managers search for this year’s Charlie Austin, who scored 18 times for promoted QPR last term, Wilson has subsequently risen from 5.4 to his original 5.5 starting price.

Delving into the data further, Wilson’s displays suggest he’s a viable option both home and away. Thanks to his weekend showing, the Bournemouth frontman has now scored more away goals than any other player in the top four tiers since the start of last season (15), with Eddie Howe’s team tailor-made to utilise his pace and movement on the counter. The Cherries, meanwhile, have won 17 penalties since the start of last season – three more than any other club in the top four leagues.

With the Upton Park result handing them a major morale boost, Bournemouth can approach their upcoming fixtures with renewed confidence. Eddie Howe’s side racked up 98 goals on their way to winning the Championship last season and with the likes of Simon Francis, Matt Ritchie and Max Gradel all supplying the creativity, Wilson’s growing band of owners have every reason for optimism ahead of four very strong showdowns in the next five (LEI, nor, SUN, WAT).

The Team

After three rounds of fixtures, Manchester City look in ominous form after a 2-0 win at Everton continued their 100% start to the season.

Manuel Pellegrini’s men sit at the top of the table, with nine goals scored and a trio of clean sheets accrued, and with an outstanding schedule to follow, many Fantasy managers are scrambling to load up on their main men.

Up next for the Etihad side are four home matches (WAT, WHM, NEW, BOU) allied with trips to Palace and Spurs in the next six Gameweeks which should allow Sergio Aguero the chance to run riot as a captaincy option.

Whilst few will be willing to go into that period without the Argentine on board, the battle is on for our attentions further back. Yaya Toure and David Silva look the chief midfield protagonists, though Raheem Sterling threw his hat in the ring with an assist at Goodison – for those who cannot stretch to Silva’s 10.1 price tag, Sterling is now just 0.1 more expensive than the Ivorian (8.9 to 8.8).

At the back, Aleksandar Kolarov’s 15-point haul against the Toffees moved the left-back to joint-second in the overall FPL standings along with team-mate Vincent Kompany. Although the Belgian is, overall, the more secure pick, Kolarov’s raids down the left and understanding with Sterling have proven a key weapon in the opening three outings. With Gael Clichy still building up his sharpness, there’s a growing belief that Pellegrini will tinker as little as possible as he looks to maintain momentum and move further away from the chasing pack.

The Talking Point

It took Pedro just 20 minutes to announce himself to Fantasy managers after opening the scoring in Chelsea’s 3-2 win at West Brom on Sunday afternoon.

By the time the final whistle went at the Hawthorns, the Spaniard had also bagged an assist and maximum bonus points, serving up a 13-point haul on his debut for the defending champions. Given that Eden Hazard has managed just eight points in his first three appearances, it’s easy to see why over 190,000 FPL managers have already snapped up his new team-mate.

Coming in at 9.5 to Hazard’s 11.5, Pedro offers an obvious alternative to the pricier Belgian as a route into Chelsea’s attack. Whilst there’s no questioning Hazard’s Fantasy potential – 14 goals and ten assists in each of the last two seasons says it all – Pedro’s acquisition perhaps indicates that the former Lille man may not be quite as “essential” in many managers’ eyes.

Whilst Hazard ultimately saw off the challenge of Cesc Fabregas as the prime Chelsea midfield pick last year, Pedro brings a far greater goal threat than his compatriot, having chalked up a 15.7% conversion rate in La Liga last term.

Certainly, the weekend showing has had an effect. Although he still sits in over 42% of FPL teams, Hazard has been sold by 404,000 FPL managers since the start of the season – over 110,000 more than any midfielder – and, along with Wayne Rooney, has been identified as the prime source of freeing up cash for our 15-man squads.

Whether Pedro can rival Hazard overall remains to be seen but with a 2.0 difference in cost, the Spaniard’s value for money is clearly set to play a part in how many assess the Chelsea attack from here on in.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

1,931 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Arsenal USA FC
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    A) Hazard & Targett/STaylor
    B) Pedro & Huth

    1. HuttonDressedasLahm
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B

    2. gunnerboy
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B

    3. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B

    4. jomikijiq
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B

      1. Arsenal USA FC
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks all

    5. dykeypunk
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Would you be benching Huth a lot. If yes then A. If not then B

  2. HuttonDressedasLahm
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    A. Depay to Pedro
    B. Depay to Coutinho
    C. Gomis to Benteke
    D. Depay to Sanchez
    E. Sell Payet not Depay (3.5 itb)
    F. Gomis to Costa

    1. gunnerboy
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. jomikijiq
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      A or D

      1. Stats Don\'t Lie
        • 9 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        This

    3. teddy.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      B or D

    4. Arsenal USA FC
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Too many options but A, B, D, E all look good

      Why ship Gomis who's on form?

      1. HuttonDressedasLahm
        • 14 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Need a Liverpool attacker
        Great fixtures
        Swanseas not so great, and I could get Ayew next week

        1. Arsenal USA FC
          • 11 Years
          8 years, 7 months ago

          Coutinho and what anout Swansea isn't great?

          1. NATSTER
            • 13 Years
            8 years, 7 months ago

            Fixtures, he means.

    5. dykeypunk
      • 11 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I've just went A

  3. AverageJoe
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Ritchie->Redmond?

    1. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Not now.

    2. It's his Job.
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Nope...

  4. It's his Job.
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Swap Depay or wait until international break...Cheers

    Butland-(McCarthy)

    Darmian Naughton B.Davies (Oxford-Richards)

    Hazard Mahrez Depay Silva (Redmond) Depay>???Shaqiri? Payet? Yaya? Coutinho?

    Diouf Aguero Gomis

    0.9 in bank

    1. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Depay > coutinho

      1. It's his Job.
        • 10 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers that doesseem logical to me too!! i am getting impatient with Depay...

  5. teddy.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Hey folks,

    I'm happy with my team for this week, but the biggest flaw in my squad is Oxford. I also have zero cash in the bank.

    Do I get rid this week so I have an active player on my bench instead of him and avoid any unfortunate price drops or do I save it for next week when I have two frees. The only replacements I can afford this week are Taylor and Targett.

    1. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Save

    2. It's his Job.
      • 10 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Oxford is 4.1 you will only lose a max 0f 0.2 to 3.9 IMO he will get game time but you could also go S.Taylor 4.0 he will start to get more Game time.

    3. Fanta sea
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      Just save and have 2 FT for the next gameweek

  6. Arsenal USA FC
    • 11 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Website for price rises?

      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      fplstatistics

      1. Arsenal USA FC
        • 11 Years
        8 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks

  7. New pOst
  8. dmhomag
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Repost of my deadzone post earlier of a MoneyBall analysis to transfer hits.

    I know that points and value are different but is there a formula that you go by when deciding to take a hit -4 to gain TV? I recall a recent article that calculated an expected seasonal return per 0.1m?

    Here's my rough thinking. Target = 2000 points per season = 20 / 1 m = 2 per 0.1m. if we multiply by 35/38 GW remaining in the season, we get 1.84 points per 0.1m of TV.

    If you sell a player to avoid a drop or if you get a double riser, that is 0.2 (i.e. 0.1 sale value) with 35 GW left, the TV benefit is worth 1.84 points.

    You therefore need the replacement player to only net you more than 2.16 points. Even if he blanks for 2 points, you are still close to break even.

    A hit to avoid a drop and gain a double riser like Mahrez = 2 x 1.84 = 3.68. It almost pays for the 4 point hit.

    This is the case early in the season. Towards the end of the season, the TV benefit gets lower and you will reach a point where the replacement player must outscore by the entire -4 in GW38.

    1. dmhomag
      • 9 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      I've reposted this on the latest chat.

  9. FIFA King
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Is anyone thinking about Aguero triple captain this GW or would you prefer to leave it until a double game week?

    1. legendaryjordan
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      always leave it until a DGW, regardless of who City are playing.

  10. GerardoGarzon11
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    How many hits is it acceptable to take in a season?

    1. Breedy
      • 14 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      How long is a piece of string? Sorry but if they work, they're acceptable; if they don't, they're not!

    2. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      8 years, 7 months ago

      11 x 38. 🙂

  11. KingCantona
    • 10 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Help please...Current Team for this week as below...

    Myhill
    Sagna - Shaw - Gomez
    Sanchez (VC) - Yaya - Depay - Payet
    Gomis - Aguero (C) - Diouf

    Bench: McCarthey - Albrighton - Richards - Williams

    1 FT £0 ITB

    Do I...
    1) Save the FT
    2) Transfer Depay > Mahrez
    3) Transfer Payet > Mahrez
    40 Something else

  12. Anaheim
    • 9 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Which 2 goalkeepers for £9 million total is the best choice starting from GW 5?

  13. The Tinkerman
    • 8 Years
    8 years, 7 months ago

    Who to bench next week?

    3 players out of these 7 must play (HOME, away):
    Payet (liv)
    Gomis, Naughton (MUN)
    Richards (SUN)
    Butland, Muniesa (WBA)
    Courtois (CPA)

    I'm thinking Butland, Richards, Gomis. Thoughts? Rest of team: Kolarov, Darmian, Mahrez, Sanchez, Silva, Aguero, Wilson.

    Anyone else noticed how few home wins there have been so far? Very unusual.