Southampton handed further fixture boost

With all of the FFS talk about Pep and his “rotation policy”, I had to delve into some the statistics from the last season before he came to City, as I believe that his Bayern 2015/2016 team had the most depth of all of the teams he has managed (two or more good options for every position, just like Pep seems to be aiming for with City), and I believe that the more recent my data is, the more it will be related to his current thinking.

I analyzed the lineups from the first 10 gameweeks, while incorporating UCL fixtures in case rotation was a result of looking at impending UCL games. Next to the Bundesliga opponent you will find their final league position, in order to give you an idea of their threat level to Bayern, and how that could play into rotation.

GW 1: Bayern 5-0 Hamburger SV(10th)
Neuer
Lahm Boateng Alaba Bernat
Vidal Alonso
Robben Muller Costa
Lewandowski

GW 2: Hoffenheim(15th) 1-2 Bayern
Neuer
Lahm Boateng Benatia Alaba
Vidal Alonso
Robben Gotze Costa
Muller

GW 3: Bayern 3-0 Leverkusen(3rd)
Neuer
Lahm Alaba Bernat
Vidal Alonso
Robben Thiago Costa
Muller Lewandowski
~Benatia injured, Boateng suspended

GW 4: Bayern 2-1 Augsburg(12th)
Neuer
Lahm Boateng Alaba Rafinha
Vidal Alonso
Muller Thiago Costa
Lewandowski
~Gotze, Robben injured (Bernat presumably rested)

UCL GW 1: Olympiacos 0-3 Bayern
Neuer
Lahm Boateng Alaba Bernat
Vidal Alonso
Muller Thiago Costa
Lewandowski
~Robben injured

GW 5: Darmstadt(14th) 0-3 Bayern
Neuer
Rafinha Boateng Alaba Bernat
Kimmich Vidal Rode
Robben Gotze Costa
~Lewandowski, Robben injured (Lahm, Alonso, Thiago presumably rested)

GW 6: Bayern 5-1 Wolfsburg(8th)
Neuer
Lahm Boateng Alaba Bernat
Vidal Alonso
Gotze Thiago Costa
Lewandowski
~Robben injured

GW 7: Mainz(6th) 0-3 Bayern
Neuer
Lahm Martinez Alaba Rafinha
Alonso Thiago
Coman Muller Costa
Lewandowski
~Robben injured, Martinez returns from lengthy injury (Gotze, Alonso, Bernat presumably rested)

UCL GW 2: Bayern 5-0 Dinamo Zagreb
Neuer
Lahm Boateng Alaba Bernat
Kimmich Thiago
Coman Gotze Costa
Lewandowski
~Robben injured (Muller, Alonso, Martinez presumably rested)

GW 8: Bayern 5-1 Dortmund(2nd)
Neuer
Lahm Martinez Boateng Alaba
Alonso Thiago
Muller Gotze Costa
Lewandowski
~Robben injured

GW 9: Bremen(13th) 0-1 Bayern
Neuer
Lahm Rafinha Boateng Alaba Bernat
Alonso Thiago Vidal
Muller Lewandowski
~Robben injured (Costa presumably rested)

UCL GW 3: Arsenlol 2-0 Bayern
Neuer
Lahm Boateng Alaba Bernat
Vidal Alonso
Muller Thiago Costa
Lewandowski
~Robben injured

GW 10: Bayern 4-0 Koln(9th)
Neuer
Lahm Boateng Alaba Rafinha
Coman Vidal Muller Costa
Lewandowski Robben

Now I will only focus on Bundesliga data, because, let’s be honest, none of you care about anything except your FPL points. 😉

Neuer: 10 starts out of 10 (100%)
Lahm: 9 starts out of 10 (90%)
Boateng: 8 starts out of 9 (89%)
Alaba: 10 starts out of 10 (100%)
Bernat: 5 starts out of 10 (50%)
Martinez: 2 starts out of 4 (50%)
Rafinha: 5 starts out of 10 (50%)
Vidal: 8 starts out of 10 (80%)
Alonso: 8 starts out of 10 (80%)
Thiago: 6 starts out of 10 (60%)
Robben: 4 starts out of 4 (100%)
Costa: 9 starts out of 10 (90%)
Muller: 8 starts out of 10 (80%)
Lewandowski: 8 starts out of 9 (89%)
Gotze: 4 starts out of 9 (45%)
Coman: 2 starts out of 10 (20%)
Rode: 1 start out of 10 (10%)
Kimmich: 1 start out of 10 (10%)
Benatia: 1 start out of 2 (50%)

There are some clear points based on this data that we can apply to our viewing of City’s prospects going into this season. (TL;DR incoming 😉 )

1) Neuer started every game that Bayern played. This makes it highly likely that Ederson will start week in week out. What complicates this is that Bravo is a “better” backup than Ulreich, at least in Pep’s eyes.
2) In defence, Boateng and Lahm started almost every game that they were available for, and Alaba started in every game. Of course, Alaba is quite versatile, so that definitely played a factor.
3) Costa started in 90% of the games, apart from one game when he was presumably rested for Arsenal in the UCL. Looks good for Sane’s prospects next season, especially considering how Pep rarely rested Sane this season. Clear trend in this data, and a huge point towards Sane’s potential in FPL this season.
4) Robben started every game when fit. This, combined with Pep’s utilization of Costa, suggests that Pep sticks to his best wingers week in week out when he can.
5) Vidal and Alonso started 80% of their games, and Alonso was strategically rested for a few. Suggests that whoever manages to grab a starting role among the likes of Toure, Fernandinho, and Gundogan will stay in that role.
6) Lewandowski started every game but one. This suggests that the idea that strikers will be rotated could be incorrect, and the fact that Muller was utilized on the wings and at attacking midfield like Jesus and Aguero have been respectively this season suggests that we could see both Aguero and Jesus getting plenty of game time.
7) Neuer(100%), Alaba(100%), Lahm(90%), Boateng(89%), Alonso(80%), Vidal(80%), Robben(100%), Costa(90%), Muller(80%), and Lewandowski (89%) started most games when fit. This suggests that Pep figures out a core group of players that will play most games, and rotation is not as much of a threat as we hype it up to be.

Based on this data I think it is fairly clear that we have exaggerated Pep’s rotation to a certain degree. It is also quite clear that Pep likes his wingers, especially his left wingers, to start week in week out. Our worries about the striker situation seem to be a tad exaggerated, and the defensive rotation does not affect the players as much as we probably expected. The goalie situation looks nice, but Pep’s preferential treatment of Bravo could throw a spanner in the works.

I look at this data, and Ederson, Sane, Jesus, and De Bruyne look amazing prospects. Kompany, Aguero, and whoever the RB will be look solid to me as FPL prospects as well. What do you guys think?