Members

Tales of the Expected – Lukaku vs Kane

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

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1,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bobby_Baggio
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Mahrez > ???

    Already have Alli - Mhki - Choupo - Carroll

    1. Bobby_Baggio
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      sorry 8.5m to spend

    2. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Silva

      1. Bobby_Baggio
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        not feeling Sterling?

        1. Chris_White
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          The fact of having an 8m midfielder who you'll never certain will play is not very tempting. Having said that, he does deliver when he gets the minutes.

          1. Bobby_Baggio
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            This is the issue i am struggling with. I guess Silva is long term and Sterling is short term?

            1. Chris_White
              • 12 Years
              6 years, 6 months ago

              Exactly

  2. Johan Queef
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    On a WC, do people think it's worth sticking with Phil Jones despite the amber flag and the fixture shift?

    My other defenders are Otamendi, Bavies, Maguire & Mee.

    Should I downgrade him to a cheap bench fodder to store funds elsewhere?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Jones available.

      1. Johan Queef
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Oh really? Is that confirmed?

        I'm reluctant to get rid due to his price rises but wondering if I'd be better off with someone else.

    2. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'm going for a four week punt on Van Dijk before switching to Jones

      1. Jersey
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        same here. VVD for 4 weeks.

  3. DV8R
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Is Otamendi really a good pick? Seems like he picks up a fair amount of yellow cards...

    1. Sandy Ravage
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      He also gets a lot of BPS

    2. Jersey
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      he is a good pick. i prefer Stones, though.

  4. Sandy Ravage
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Need to ship Hegazi, Lowe, Mooy & Chicharito over the next couple of GWs so will be taking hits. Should I also:

    A - downgrade Mkhitaryan & upgrade Chicharito > Jesus / Aguero as 3rd striker (w. Kane, Kaku)
    B - downgrade Chicharito & upgrade Defense (w. Bavies, Maguire, Mbemba)
    C - downgrade Chicharito & upgrade Midfield (w. KDB, Silva, Carroll)

    1. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B for me to get Bavies in

      1. Sandy Ravage
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Already have Bavies. Would like Otamendi / Stones

    2. Naboo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

  5. Horcmen
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    2FT, 0.0 ITB, no City cover, what to do?

    A) Mkhi -> Sterling, Firmino -> Vardy, keep Kola
    B) Mkhi -> Silva, Kola -> Otamendi, keep Firmino

  6. sambyy
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    On WC

    A) Luiz, Hazard, Sterling
    B) Azpi, Coutinho, Silva

    1. dan_247
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A for me

    2. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I like B

    3. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    4. sambyy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B is also 0.4 cheaper btw.

    5. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    6. Jersey
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    7. Sandy Ravage
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    8. Zladan
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I have a combination of Azpi Sterling Coutinho Hazard

  7. Moves like Dejagah
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Play Tom Carroll (HUD) or Choupo (mci)

    1. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      TC

  8. Boleyn Boy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Evening All,

    Can I please get some verdicts on my planned transfers for this week and next week. Thanks in advance:

    This week - Alonso, Mkhitaryan & Niasse > Ward, Sterling & Abraham

    Next week - Alli & Chalobah > Hazard & Choupo-Moting

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Don’t lose alonso this week. Just do mkh to sterling

      1. Sir Oux
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        This. Wouldn't lose alonso

  9. FPL Bielsa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Quick view please which is best for next two weeks

    A - Hazard and Joselu

    B - Jesus and Chopper Moting

    1. nkhoughton
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Probably b as a pair but hazard over jesus

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. Kalou
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    4. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks leaning towards A as I think Haz could be great differential this week and concerned with GJ's minutes

  10. nkhoughton
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Gtg?

    Pope
    Ward Davies Luiz Martina
    Hazard Coutiniho Cork
    Kane Jesus Vardy

    Eliot Jones Stephens Richarlison

    Dunno if I should get someone instead of richarlison whilst bad fixtures

    1. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I would play Richarlison over Cork this week, Arsenal have injured defenders and Rich in form, don't sell his price is only going up can see him as this years Josh King

  11. Pat Bonner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Bit stuck on what to do guys. Got 2ft and 0.3 in the bank.

    Elliot krul
    Alonso jones Davies monreal mbemba
    Eriksen choupo salah RLC Carroll
    Kane firmino morata

    Had been set on firmino and morata to vardy and Jesus but want to wait for the press conference tomorrow and might be priced out tonight? Do morata to Jesus now or wait? Any other suggestions?

    1. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Would do both no Morata this week and can't see Firmino doing much against that Man U defence. Jesus rotation always a prob tho so prefer Kaku if you have the cash, he could score against Pool and then Hudd up next.

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers. Let’s hope morata is def out this weekend. Really want him long term but move to Jesus is the obvious one

    2. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'd do the moves. In worst case, you'll have to do the reverse move next week but looking at the rest of your team it seems like something you can afford to do.

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Cheers

  12. Aston-villain
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Here's my templatey team as somone asked for it earlier....
    Any thoughts???

    Fabianski
    Monreal Azpi Cedric Davies
    Haz Richarlison Silva
    Vardy Kane Jesus

    Elliot .Stephens Surman Rangel
    0 ITB WC active

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Looks good. Hazard could be gold

      1. Aston-villain
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Yes, Haz as a differential and those upcoming fixtures...i had to fit him in.

    2. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Too weak bench imo

    3. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Good team but apart from Elliott bench a big problem would swap Mon and Rangel for two playing defenders Mee and another

    4. Aston-villain
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks for the input chaps. Was already contemplating the monreal downgrade and rangel upgrade with Mee being one of the incoming...

      1. FPL Bielsa
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Look for someone to rotate home and away with Mee as I always just play him at home

  13. F4L
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Kante missing the next 3. Why isn't Fabregas being touted more at 6.9mil.

    1. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Ssshh... 🙂

  14. Salarrivederci
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Sterling + Sane

    or

    Hazard + 5,9 mid (not March)

    1. nkhoughton
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Hazard Doucoure?

      1. Salarrivederci
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I know those options. But do you prefer Sane + Sterling or Hazard + 5,9 mid?

        Already got Alonso and Silva

    2. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Hazard and Chopou-Moting?

      1. Pat Bonner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        +1

    3. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Haz and Shaqiri

      1. badgerboy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        This

    4. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Hazard & Gross.

  15. hjalmarekdal
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Need some serious help guys... take a look at my team.

    Elliott
    Jones / Cedric / Trippier / Löwe
    Eriksen / Salah / Mkhitaryan
    Lukaku / Jesus / Wood

    Foster; Atsu / Mbemba / Carroll

    Already done Morata—> Jesus this week.

    0FT & 3.1ITB

    A) Leave it, no - points
    B) Mkhi —> Hazard for -4
    C) Atsu —> Sterling for -4
    D) Wood —> Firmino/Vardy for -4
    E) Anything Else

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Maybe C

    2. Sandy Ravage
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Lowe > Azpilicueta / Luiz

    3. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B good I'm leaning towards that move myself this week, if Haz scores well rank rise big as hardly owned and fixtures look good, on pens, scored twice this week, no Morata......actually I am doing it this week !

  16. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    really looking at getting some opinions - need to push the button before tonights rises!!

    pick one please:

    A. Trippier / Mkhi / Firmino >> Ward / Sterling / Jesus (-4)

    B. Mkhi / Firmino >> Silva / Vardy

    Thanks

    1. Teror
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B not worth taking a hit could see Trippier rested for Aurier

  17. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    A Luiz and Choupo-Moting or
    B Azpilicueta and Davis/Atsu/Iwobi (or any better midfielder up to 5.1 m)

    1. Lukakuna
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

  18. Teror
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    KdB >

    A. Silva

    B. Sterling

    C. Do Nothing

    https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/team/420916/event/7

    1. Lukakuna
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      C

    3. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      C

    4. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      C

  19. Lukakuna
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    A - Lukaku to Jesus
    or
    B - Firmino to Vardy

    1. Teror
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

    3. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B.

    4. Rate My Tome
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B for me.

    5. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

      Why would you transfer out Mr Goal a game always play 90 mins to man with almost certain limited minutes

      1. Lukakuna
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Lukaku isnt really explosive tho, but see your point 😉

  20. StayoutheSpiceZone
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    I am sure sterling will rise tonight, but do u guys reckon Jesus and Kane will ?

  21. fridge
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    De Gea. Elliott
    Bavies. Bert. Dawson. Mee. Hune
    Eriksen. Ramsey. Shaqiri. Ritchie. Carroll
    Kane. Lukaku. Firmino

    I have 2FT and 0.1 ITB. Should I do

    A) just Firmino to Vardy
    B) Anything else?

    1. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A looks good

    2. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A obvious transfer is usually the right one

  22. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Will Kante miss the next 3 games?

    1. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Looks like it

  23. eoan
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Alonso, Otamendi, and Richarlison is better than Azpilicueta, Maguire, and Sterling, right?

    1. George James
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      What other city attack do you have?

      1. eoan
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Jesus & Silva

  24. George James
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Best team?

    A)
    Fab Elliot
    Walker Cedric Davies Alonso Mbemba
    Hazard Richarlison Silva Choupo RLC
    Kane Jesus Joselu

    B)
    Forster Elliot
    Ward Luiz Otamendi Davies Hunemeier
    Hazard Richarlison Sterling Atsu King
    Kane Jesus Vardy

  25. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Hello guys. I think my Wildcard comes down to whether to stick with Eriksen and Silva or switch tonight to Hazard and Sterling before price rise. Which one you'd prefer? At the moment I'm slightly preferring A.

    Pope
    Davies, Jones, Azpi, Mee
    ----, ----, Richarlison
    Jesus, Kane, Vardy

    subs: Elliott, Choupo-Moting, Stephens, ----

    A) Eriksen, Silva & Dunk
    B) Hazard, Sterling & Mbemba

    1. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Flip a coin there's nothing in it

  26. Egyptian Giza
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Latest on Kolasinac? Wenger said anything regarding his fitness?

    1. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      He said that the signs were positive, and they were gonna test him

    2. Lord Flashheart
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      No flag

  27. Spartac Mac
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    6 games in 13 days for Chelsea, including Roma home and away.

    What's the odds on Hazard playing 90minutes against a poor Crystal Palace this weekend after he is still returning from injury?

    He recently said in an interview:
    "I worked out during the summer. I just want to play football. I will miss some games, I will play bad for some games. I just want to play football and try to bring the best of me."

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      6 games in 13 days? Fake news.

      1. Spartac Mac
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Haha yeah huge typo there, 18 days*.

        1. how now brown cow
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          I agree with your point though. If Chelsea are winning I can't see him going the 90.

          1. Spartac Mac
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            10.5m for a player I'm not going to captain.

            It's a tough one as he's got it in him, but I'm still in the "wait and see" camp.

    2. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I see him coming off around 70 if we are winning (which should happen)

      1. Spartac Mac
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Is he going to be leading the line or...?

    3. Jam0sh
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      6 matches in 17 days and one of those is Caramba cup which important players will at least most likely sit out

    4. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'm getting him in he is more than capable of wreaking havoc in 75 mins and without Morata goals and Kantes defensive shield Chelsea will need him firing

  28. Kevtheotter
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Hey guys how does this look?

    Elliot
    Alonso Cresswell Naughton
    Eriksen Brady Ritchie Mkhi
    Lukaku Kane Firmino

    Foster Jones Carroll Mbemba 2FT 0ITB

    Mkhi and Firmino to Sterling and Vardy before price rises tonight?

    Any major reason to wait?

    Cheers

  29. how now brown cow
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    What one thing have you learned today?

  30. Salarrivederci
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Lloris Elliot

    Alonso, Monreal, Jones, Lascelles, Mbemba

    Eriksen*, Silva, Jese*, Kante*, Carroll

    Kane, Lukaku, Wood

    1FT
    0,9 ITB

    A: Eriksen, Jese & Kante -> Hazard, March + 4,5 - 5,9 mid
    B: Eriksen, Jese & Kante -> Sane, Sterling & March (0,2 ITB)
    C: Other?

    I want to catch price rise on either Sane and Sterling or Hazard, and that is why I am taking -8 this week. Also to prevent Jese going down to 5,8.