Members

Tales of the Expected – Lukaku vs Kane

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

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1,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    BREAKING!

    Phil Jones to play against Liverpool.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/41534299

    1. George James
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Ban

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        What's wrong with the link? BBC football is spot on, 9 times out of 10.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          The other 10% 😉

        2. George James
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Only messing Virg. Not sure it confirms he will play though as you have stated.

          1. FPL Virgin
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            It's pretty certain judging by that, me thinks.

    2. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      i have him but will play tom carroll instead. pool to score and these games have cards flying around maybe red ones

  2. Unbowed Unbent N'Golo
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Currently have no Man City and defence is thin:
    Alonso, Bertrand, Kola (Rosenior, Long) 1FT, 0.4 ITB

    A) Mkhy --> Sterling for free and hope Kola is fit
    B) Mhky & Kola --> Silva & Ota for -4

    1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A, no defender for a hit

    2. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A and hope for the best. This is why having 2 non player defenders can hurt you

      1. Unbowed Unbent N'Golo
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah true dat, but haven't needed a sub yet this season either, so works both ways. Still have WC in hand too o'course.

        Cheers both.

  3. Oven Glover
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Are you ready? He’s ready!

    https://mobile.twitter.com/aguerosergiokun

    1. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      ...and so it begins... 😀

      1. Oven Glover
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Proud owner 🙂

    2. Ode
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      So he didn't even fracture his rib

    3. FPL Virgin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Absolute spanner to my plan.

      There's definitely egg on Jonty's face after he was so unequivocal on the scoutcast. Looks like Man City's "light training" was a bit more rigorous than first thought.

      1. Oven Glover
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Never trust the scouts! You of all people should know that by now!

        1. FPL Virgin
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          😀

    4. Sánchez
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      "Vamos" springs to memory

    5. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      This is quite funny really.

    6. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Wow!

  4. Bryggebermen-Martin
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Lots of WCs beeing played. This is my first season, and the WC is exhausting. Tankfull for any help! The 3 big questions are:
    1 Hazard is tempting, and easy to downgrade, but is he worth it?
    2. Alonso/stones/maguire or d. luiz/walker/jones?
    3. Is it to clever thinking 343/433 stoke/burnley and brighton/newcastle def/mid rotation is the way to go?

    My WC team changes every hour, but could look like this:

    fabianski
    alonso, stones, maguire, ward/choupo-moting rotation,
    groß/lascelles rotation, hazard, sterling
    kane, jesus (will be morata in a two weeks), vardy

    1. Teror
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      1. He could be, but I wouldn't yet.
      2. L/W/J
      3. 4-3-3 looks like the best this season. Not sure about rotation.

      Good team overall.

    2. andymck
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      1. Not for me - too unpredictable, never a captain option, struggles away from home so certainly not worth 10.5m in my opinion.
      2. Option b, but both are good.
      3. Looks ok but I'd probably prefer to just stick with 1 formation rather than switching black and forth between two. Personal preference though.

    3. Rate My Tome
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Also on a WC and making decisions similar to yours.

      1)Hazard is really tempting but I prefer Eriksen even with the tough fixtures, especially with the extra money it offers.
      2)Alonso or Azpi are my Chelsea defenders of choice, I'm not touching Luiz. Go big or go home for me.
      3) I would recommend avoiding rotation of two slots between 4 players. That way lies guaranteed bitterness with a tinge of madness. Speaking from personal experience here.

    4. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      1. A risk but could be worth it.
      2. Second option but Walker feels overpriced.
      3. Keep rotations simple. 2 cheap defenders or GK's rotating is fine. When it turns into rotating positions it becomes over complicated and you can easily miss points.

    5. Bryggebermen-Martin
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Thanks!

  5. Teror
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    What's my priority this week? https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/team/420916/event/7

    Wanted to get rid of KdB for Sterling or Silva but I'm worried I might see blanks from Salah and Ritchie and Jones so I feel like maybe Ritchie needs to go. Any help?

    1. Blame it on Traore
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Wouldn't worry. Think those players are fine for this week!

  6. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Hope Pep drops a line that Aguero starts tomorrow in what is already a miraculous recovery from broken ribs.

    1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      all press reports say injured ribs, could have been bruised only

      1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        I don't think he even hurt his ribs

      2. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        He said himself that it was a broken rib 😡

        1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          not if he's running around

          1. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
            • 13 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            Something fishy about the whole thing. I have a feeling we are not being told the full story

    2. Spartac Mac
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      If he's moving, in training, getting tackled etc there's 0% chance ribs were broken.

      Probably just a bit shell-shocked from the accident? He's playing on the weekend I'd say.

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        oh ffsake!! Could have done Morata to Aguero:-( did Morata to Jesus

        1. THFC4LIFE
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Same

  7. HD7
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Jones, Atsu, Kolasinac... will they play this GWeek?

    1. Sánchez
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Yes, dunno, yes

  8. Bruno Bruno!!
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    If Pep says anything on Aguero tomorrow that is positive, I am tempted to do Morata to Aguero as a differential to Jesus as lots has brought him in.

    1. Sánchez
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      What if he says his recovery is going well (but just doesn't elaborate that he's still not ready to play)?

  9. Team Cruel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Morata > Kun no brainer?

    1. Bruno Bruno!!
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      im thinking of making that exact move after the chelsea and City pressers tomorrow

  10. MiguelAngel
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Thinking..
    A) Laca > Jesus
    B) Laca & Atsu > Vardy & Sterling -4

    1. arndff_
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

  11. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    #magicbeans

  12. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    is Jesus being rested for Napoli match midweek with aguero returning the following gw on the cards?

    1. Sánchez
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Asnd no striker this week?

      1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        yep, just sterling and sane

  13. Lord Flashheart
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Kola has no flag
    What the story ?

    1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      wait for pressers

      1. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        the presser was today ?

        1. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          lol good point

    2. Jersey
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      yes he does

    3. @fpl_phenom
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      He does.... he’s yellow flagged.

    4. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Refresh your window.

  14. @fpl_phenom
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    I did Morata to Jesus to beat the price rise and fall. Now Aguero is fit... FML. I have money for Jesus to Kun... il be doing that next week. Hope Jesus plays v Stoke.

    1. Spartac Mac
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Jesus still ain't a bad option, even if Kun is about.

      1. @fpl_phenom
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        KUN is different gravy IMO.

      2. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Unless you sold Aguero for Jesus for a hit 🙄

    2. johnnys balloons
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Relax, even IF aguero starts, he would be the one who gets subbed in 60th minute of the game. So its a good thing for jesus owners. And I dont really think that aguero will start or play any part in stoke game. Maybe against Napoli witch is also good for jesus coz he might be rested for PL game

  15. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Currently on WC......trying to snap one off.

  16. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Is Ritchie to Fabregas worth a -4?

    1. arndff_
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Nope

  17. andymck
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Sterling likely to go up tonight? I know he's past the mark on fplstats but I'm taking that with a pinch of salt this year...

  18. Chris_White
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    So...who brought in Morata last week and shifted to Jesus this week? 😛

    1. Teror
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I went Morata > Vardy on WC. Preferred Sterling and Silva over Jesus.

    2. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Lol, who would be so dumb? The cool kids sold Aguero and brought Fellaini -4 😎

    3. Pirlø's Pen
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Did the former, getting Vardy and getting Walker this week I think. Already had Jesus.

    4. Jayv807
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      GW6 brought in Kun
      GW7 brought in Morata for Kun
      GW8 brought in Jesus for Morata

      Will probably swap out Jesus next week ..

  19. Teror
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    KdB + Long > Sterling + Luiz (-4) ?

    1. arndff_
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Yes

  20. Oven Glover
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Kane or Kun captain? 😎

    1. arndff_
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Kane ofc...

    2. Teror
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Kun (C); Kane (VC)

      1. arndff_
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        bs

    3. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Kun capatain and him starting is the ultimate flair pic

  21. RubberDucky
      6 years, 6 months ago

      This Aguero news is halting my Sterling transfer.

      Seems the safest option to keep Mkhi this GW

      1. Unbowed Unbent N'Golo
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        If you have no other City coverage though it's still worth it for the next 2 fixtures I reckon.

        1. RubberDucky
            6 years, 6 months ago

            I have no City players but a risky Sterling minutes against a guaranteed Mhki against A poor Liverpool Defence and then Huddersfield

            1. bench boost for every gamew…
              • 7 Years
              6 years, 6 months ago

              we cannot predict the future but we can read numbers and people tend to repeatedly saying that Liverpool has a poor defense; well, they have one goal against in 3 matches at home. They are poor away, not so on home turf. Last season they were joint second best with most of the other top teams for goals against at home, bar United who decided to play 0-0 in every homegame...

      2. GarethJohn
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Hey guys,
        Deciding if I made a trade this week or keep and have 2 free next week, I do have 1.4 in the bank also:

        Fabianski
        Jones,Naughton,Lascelles
        Hazard,Salah,Silva,Mkhitaryan
        Jesus,Lukaku,Calvert-Lewin

        Bench: Elliot - Mbemba - Rosenior - King

        Thanks for any feedback.

      3. Ci Siamo
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Good transfers?

        Lukaku and Firmino —> Lacazette and Vardy

      4. Zladan
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Lukaku or Jesus

        1. how now brown cow
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          With Kun seemingly fit I am sticking with Lukaku

      5. Garlicbread
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Which midfield scores more over the next 6/7 weeks??

        A) Hazard, Silva & Chipo-Moting

        Or

        B) Eriksen, Silva & Sterling

        Thanks in advance......!!

      6. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Alsono & Jesus

        Luiz & Kun

        Both cost the same, it’s got to be the latter right?

        1. Jam0sh
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Do you think Kun will start if he's ok to play?

        1. Team Cruel
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          "Back to training. I am ready (biceps emoji)!"

        2. Adam West - Team Serbia for…
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Nothing if he thought he had broken ribs

        3. Pino
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          He is back!

        4. johnnys balloons
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Nothing. He wont play next game. He is just back in training. Wait for Pep's presser

      7. dan_247
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Here's my wildcard team. What do you think:

        Fab/ Elliott
        Stones, Luiz, Cedric, mee, jones
        Silva, coutinho choupo, richarl, Tc
        Kane, vardy, Jesus

        1. @fpl_phenom
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Aguero is fit, rip it up and start again.

          1. Jam0sh
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            6 years, 6 months ago

            Fit to train at least. But to play, who knows?

            1. dan_247
              • 7 Years
              6 years, 6 months ago

              Tough call. But I think he will rest against Stoke and come in either midweek or the following weekend.

              Let's assume he won't play against Stoke. Any changes to the above team?

              Thanks

              1. Jam0sh
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 11 Years
                6 years, 6 months ago

                Solid team

      8. @fpl_phenom
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        When are the pressers?

        1. Jersey
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          8 were today, the rest tomorrow.

        2. VS10_
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Pep starting his around 4am.

      9. Ci Siamo
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Who will get more minutes in the next 3 GWs?

        A) Fabregas

        B) Sterling