Members

Tales of the Expected – Lukaku vs Kane

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

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1,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ha.
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Are people not worried about Sterling with Aguero back on the scene?

    1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Not this week. Sterling - alum - Sane with Jesus rested

      1. bojack
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Who's Alum and is he less than 8.5?

        1. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Hahaha oops sorry! Kun = alum

      2. SEXY SOLO SAUCE
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        You reckon Kun starts ahead of Jesus?

        1. Freddo
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Aguero has missed three weeks of football, even if he's available, hes unlikely to be rushed into a start against Stoke (who have injured defenders) when they have a huge game on Tue.

          Take a deep breath.

  2. Chris_White
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    The only thing missing now is that Morata is declared fit

    1. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      And Danny Rose

      1. Syd.
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        And Aguero

      2. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        😆

      3. Chris_White
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Now that is taking it a bit TOO far... 😛

      4. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        i will worry about him when he gets a start. not exactly MPs pet at the moment and he could easily get a setback yet

    2. Sánchez
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      He's claimed that loads of times. Nobody believes him though

  3. bojack
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Should a six-foot-six man shy away from Cuban heels?

    Discuss.

  4. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Who will get more minutes in the next 3 GWs?

    A) Fabregas

    B) Sterling.

    1. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Fabregas probably but it's not just about minutes as he will likely be in the defensive Kante role

    2. Marc OverMata
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A) easy

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Hard to say but I would say Sterling

    4. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A with kante out I reckon he'll start every one
      but even if aguero is back I think sterling will get decent game time, he has so far

  5. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    This is mad! Jesus might not start due to IB, Kun might start after recovering over IB #Scenes

    1. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      It could happen

    2. bojack
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      IBS (International Break Syndrome).

    3. PompeyUpNorth!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      And I've just got Jesus in thinking he will rise tonight, with cash to get aguero !!???

  6. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Which should do better? If A Monreal or Jones? If B Luiz or Otamendi? Thanks

    A Pope Elliot
    Cedric Monreal/Jones Maguire Davies Ward

    B Pope Elliot
    Cedric Luiz/Otamendi Davies Naughton Ward

    1. Marc OverMata
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B) otamendi

  7. Joey Barton and Friends
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Decided to ditch Lukaku and go all out City/Chelsea on my WC. 5-3-2 this week and banking on lots of Chelsea clean sheets

    Fabs/Elliot

    Davies/Luiz/Azpi/Ward/Otamendi

    Coutinho/Eriksen/Sterling (King/RLC)

    Kane/Jesus (Hemed)

  8. Bruno Bruno!!
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    If Morata is declared fit tomorrow, and Pep says Aguero is fit to play on saturday how does the following sound?

    Lukaku to Aguero

    1. Joey Barton and Friends
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      not very likely though (but yes, I would)

  9. Chris_White
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Jesus had to sprint 80 metres in injury time to score the last goal against Chile

    *Internation Break Syndrome confirmed*

    *Transfers in Agüero*

  10. Syd.
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Thinking of getting rid of Mhki for Hazard

    Yeah or Yeah or should I just get Pedro

    1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      sounds like your minds made up

    2. fedolefan
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Pedro over Fabregas? Not convinced with 10.5m for Hazard, so it's between the those two.

  11. Lucky Z
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Laca => Aguero for free?

    1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Waitfor presser but Id day yes

  12. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    AguerooOOOOOO

    1. HellasLEAF
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      madness. Kun to return this GW?

  13. how now brown cow
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    This international break feels like that episode of Dallas where Bobby pitched up in the shower and it was all back to normal.

    Did any of this actually happen?

    1. Rate My Tome
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I think it's more like the end of Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade. Where the Nazis would have got their brains fried regardless of Indy being there or not.

  14. DV8R
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Am I G2G?

    DDG
    Mee, Bavies, Kola
    Alli, Ritchie, Shaqiri, Richarlison
    Kane, Lukaku, Vardy

    Elliot, Carroll, Lowe, TAA

    0FT, 0.7m ITB

    Will get City/Chelsea next week

  15. eyezil
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Probably the least sexy selection decision, but who to start...Joselu or Lowe?

    1. zon
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      jo-se-lu

  16. Eden ACCOUNT CLOSED
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Inevitably getting Kun in. Was pretty convinced but that Tweet just made shit get real

    1. Joey Barton and Friends
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      which tweet?

  17. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    i think id be concerned if i had a City striker right now

    1. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I’d be more concerned if I didn’t have one

    2. how now brown cow
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I am equally concerned not having one.

      1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        too much doubt in both cases right now

    3. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'm getting Silva.

      Less risk

      1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        yep im happy with him till we see state of kun

  18. cjhewitt92
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts on selling Lukaku and Mkhi to Hazard and Vardy or Rashford to buy him for game vs Huddersfield

  19. KingOllie
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Jesus -> kun -4?

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Only if it's for -12

    2. HellasLEAF
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      surely not. Kun won't see max minutes even if he somehow does play.

  20. Ci Siamo
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Which transfer?

    A) Lukaku and Firmino —> Lacazette and Vardy

    B) Lukaku and Ritchie —> Vardy and Fabregas

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Neither

      1. Fantasy Gold
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Prefer A though

  21. Fantasy Gold
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Sergio has trolled us all big time with his broken rib tweet 😆

    1. Oven Glover
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      His tweet before the game he was rested springs to mind...

      1. Fantasy Gold
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        Yeah, vs Bournemouth iirc.

        A lot of people changed captaincy to him because of his tweet pre-game.

        Mental

        1. Oven Glover
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 6 months ago

          Will start him and captain Kane. Owning is enough atm.

    2. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      He's a bullshitter, not the first time he's trolled us

      1. Syd.
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 6 months ago

        The Tweet is for Mark Hughes

    3. fedolefan
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I think he has an FPL team and wants to win FPL. Deliberately throwing us all off.

  22. wormface
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Thoughts appreciated
    Fab Elliot
    Alonso Walker ward Davies Maguire
    Hazard sterling Silva
    Kane Vardy
    Richarlsin rlc ladapo

  23. Jam0sh
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Good evening all. How would you prefer to complete this Wildcard team? I think it comes down to whether to stick with Eriksen and Silva or switch tonight to Hazard and Sterling before price rise. Which one you'd prefer? At the moment I'm slightly preferring A.

    Pope
    Davies, Jones, Azpi, Mee
    ----, ----, Richarlison
    Jesus, Kane, Vardy

    subs: Elliott, Choupo-Moting, Stephens, ----

    A) Eriksen, Silva & Dunk
    B) Hazard, Sterling & Mbemba

    1. zon
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      B

  24. Rate My Tome
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    On a WC, got it narrowed down to two choices for a 3-4-3:

    Fabianski - Eliot
    ALONSO - Bavies - Cedric - Ward - Mbemba
    RICHARLISON - Eriksen - Silva - Choupo - Carroll
    Kane - Jesus - Vardy

    Fabianski - Eliot
    MAGUIRE - Bavies - Cedric - Ward - Mbemba
    STERLING - Eriksen - Silva - Choupo - Carroll
    Kane - Jesus - Vardy

    So that's

    A) Alonso and Richarlison
    B) Maguire and Sterling

    In the context of what my team looks like afterwards I much prefer B. It gives more flexibility and I also think it will probably get slightly more points over the short terms given Richarlisons difficult fixtures.

    That said, Sterling will be benched eventually, and probably sooner with the Kun news. I will switch Jesus to Morata as soon as Morata is fit, so is it worth running the risk of having to take hits to get rid of Sterling when I know I will be using a transfer soon?

    So yeah, A or B? Long term or short term?

    1. Kevtheotter
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    1. johnnys balloons
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Morata to vardy and chabolah to some 6m mid ?
      Or kolasinac to some 4.5 def and chabo to 6m

    2. eyezil
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      I'd downgrade Morata for someone like Carroll and pickup Sterling / Silva

    3. eyezil
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Or Morata to Vardy and Chabo to Richarlison

  25. Lone Wolf
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Play one

    a) Jones vs Liv
    b) Choupo vs City
    c) Mbemba vs Sou

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      A

    2. Kevtheotter
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Jones

    3. Rate My Tome
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Easy A

  26. Kevtheotter
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Hey guys how does this look?

    Elliot
    Alonso Cresswell Naughton
    Eriksen Brady Ritchie Mkhi
    Lukaku Kane Firmino

    Foster Jones Carroll Mbemba 2FT 0ITB

    Mkhi and Firmino to Sterling and Vardy before price rises tonight?

    Any major reason to wait?

    Cheers!

    1. Rate My Tome
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 6 months ago

      Makes sense. Do you have a Sterling escape plan if necessary?

  27. Drum8888
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Aguero essential

  28. shotgunnufc - MANIAC
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    mbemba's going to rise again tonight! must be on about 4.5mil now right?

  29. Syd.
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 6 months ago

    Time to cash in on Lukaku

    Aguero in Rom out?