Transfers

Market Forces – Gameweek 12

Another dramatic weekend saw the midfield firmly reassert itself as a target for big Fantasy investment.

The surprise, explosive return of Paul Pogba, another big score from Mohamed Salah and a Gameweek-high tally from Eden Hazard has meant that Fantasy managers are putting their five-man midfield under scrutiny. And, for once, Manchester City’s assets are not on the agenda.

Harry Kane’s failings and the continued rotation in Pep Guardiola’s frontline helped ensure that midfielders were the main focus.

However, there was at least a resurgence in the cheap striker bracket, with Oumar Niasse and Callum Wilson showing form and submitting their CV’s as perfect enablers for midfield investment.

Meanwhile, at the back, the inexorable rise of Stephen Ward continues, thanks to another Man City asset suffering sales.

Continuing our series of weekly articles, we at whogottheassist.com are reviewing and commenting on trends and behaviours in the Fantasy Premier League (FPL) marketplace, looking at common themes and giving our view on the viability of the transfers taking place.

Pogback with a bang

Last season many Fantasy managers turned to 3-5-2 as the go-to formation, with big-ticket midfielders Alexis Sanchez, Eden Hazard and one or both of Spurs duo Dele Alli and Christian Eriksen squeezed into line-ups.

Savings came in the shape of Josh King as a cheap but hugely productive asset in midfield, with Victor Anichebe doing his bit as an enabler up front.

This season, the early prominence of premium defenders and strikers distracted Fantasy managers from a big spend in midfield.

However, we’re now seeing a shift, with that trend exploding into focus this week.

Paul Pogba’s 12-point comeback performance for Manchester United in just 69 minutes has sparked a rush to invest in the Frenchman.

His 8.0 price tag appears locked for seven days post-injury, meaning that his 224,000 investors so far have yet to impact on his valuation. But with his ownership continuing to climb as we approach Friday’s deadline, we will doubtless see one, or even two, increases ahead of Gameweeks 14 and 15.

Clearly, many see Pogba as a bargain and are swooping with Brighton due at Old Trafford on Saturday and a trip to Watford to follow soon after.

By contrast, team-mate Henrikh Mkhitaryan – whose form has dipped as dramatically as his price – is also back to his original 8.0 valuation as he continues to be sold in droves. Over 96,000 managers have parted ways with the Armenian, with almost 60,000 making the straight swap to Pogba.

Interestingly, Manchester City’s midfield options also appear to be suffering from Pogba’s return to prominence.

The tactic of doubling up on Pep Guardiola’s free-scoring options appears to have temporarily lost its appeal, with both Raheem Sterling (8.1 and 20,000+) and David Silva (8.4 and 14,000+) shedding owners directly to Pogba.

Salah maintains momentum

Mohamed Salah (9.6) gave us another virtuoso performance, with his brace against Southampton eliciting 16 points for his ownership, which now hovers around the 40% mark. His bandwagon shows no sign of slowing as managers cave in to his charms after back-to-back hauls and a seemingly relentless consistency.

More than 100,000 managers have brought the “winger” in so far despite a tough match-up with former employees Chelsea up next.

A major casualty of the rush for Salah is Christian Eriksen (9.5), who, astonishingly, is without an assist since Gameweek 2. Despite a kind looking run to come, another blank against Crystal Palace proved the final straw for many, with 80,000+ selling him on so far – 25,000 as part of a direct trade to Salah.

Wilson and Niasse pounce on Tammy setback

Gameweek 12 has also signalled a major shift in the budget striker market.

Just as Fantasy managers potentially lost one cut-price option, so another two compelling candidates stepped up to fill the potential void.

Oumar Niasse (5.0) at Everton and Callum Wilson (6.0) at Bournemouth were the only two strikers to hit double figures at the weekend, coinciding with Tammy Abraham’s (6.0) injury in Swansea City’s 2-0 away defeat to Burnley.

Abraham has since sustained 94,000 sales and 35,000+ of these have been trades to Niasse, while over 25,000 have moved to Wilson.

There are several twists in this particular tale, not least the fact that Swansea seem confident on Abraham’s return to face Bournemouth this weekend.

Secondly, Niasse has had his short-term appeal dented by the FA only this morning.

Niasse harvested a 10-point return at Crystal Palace and is currently the second most bought player, with 129,000 managers rushing to exploit his potential to free up funds. However, with the FA’s charge revealed earlier today, those owners will likely have to do without the Senegalese for the next two matches. It will be interesting to see if that reverses the market trend, with Niasse’s 5.4% ownership suffering a dip.

Elsewhere, Wilson’s warming return to FPL relevance after injury arrived via an explosive 17-point hat-trick. That treble against Huddersfield Town rewarded the intrepid 3,393 managers who acquired his services ahead of the Terriers clash.

With a very favourable run of short-term fixtures, Wilson has prompted 80,000 to swoop ahead of his away trip to a vulnerable Swansea defence.

Morata in vogue

Despite the top five strikers being placed just 10 points apart, a goal and an assist at West Brom has seen Alvaro Morata (10.5) continue to soar as the market’s forward option of choice.

A promising run of fixtures after Saturday’s trip to Liverpool has urged another 113,000+ to snap up the Chelsea striker, with Spurs’ Harry Kane (12.8) and City’s Sergio Aguero (11.7) predictably the players shedding owners.

That pair suffered significant blows to their stock in Gameweek 12. Kane blanked for the first time in a north London derby on Saturday, while Aguero recorded yet another no-show in an away fixture.

The uncertainty surrounding Aguero’s starting role has seen many of his owners take action, with his price falling as a result of more than 94,000 sales – over a third of which have been trades to Morata.

While a trip to Huddersfield is up next, Pep Guardiola’s statements in yesterday’s Champions League press conference appeared to confirm that Aguero remains in a job share with Gabriel Jesus. The Brazilian has started all of Man City’s away matches so far, which would suggest that Aguero will again have his minutes cut against the Terriers.

As for Kane, he has been sold off by 50,000 with managerless West Brom up next.

Despite causing despair following his recent failures as captain, the fear factor remains a consideration with Kane.

Capable of punishing a beleaguered Baggies, his Gameweek 13 potential will doubtless be slowing sales. However, a lack of convincing alternatives – aside from Morata – has also helped his cause and urged many to ignore recent disappointments and show patience.

Dropping like Stones

A hamstring injury sustained against Leicester City has ruled Man City centre-half John Stones out for the Christmas period.

Heavy sales have inevitably followed and he’s the most discarded asset ahead of Friday, with 102,000 managers showing him the exit.

More than 20,000 have so far swapped for his defensive partner Nicolas Otamendi, who returns from suspension for Gameweek 13. Arsenal’s Sead Kolasinac and Bournemouth’s Charlie Daniels are the other two key targets benefitting from the Stones fallout.

However, his injury has also helped to maintain the meteoric rise of Burnley’s Stephen Ward. He is now the top-owned defender in the game (21.2%) and has attracted another 61,000 managers this Gameweek. Ward has also risen from his initial valuation of 4.5 to a princely 5.0.

Sales of early-season favourite Ahmed Hegazi and the crocked Phil Jones have also benefitted Ward. Some 7,500 have made the direct Jones to Ward swap.

Those seeking Burnley representation in their backlines, but now baulking at Ward’s inflated price, are considering Nick Pope in goal. He earned two bonus points against Swansea despite registering just a single save.

Pope is surpassing David de Gea for transfers in (17,000 vs 13,000), while some (8,000+) have downgraded the Man United stopper in another bid to free up investment funds.

In conclusion

We are now careering into a period of intense Fantasy activity, with Gameweeks coming thick and fast – nine of them between now and New Year’s Day.

Accordingly, the market could pick up pace.

This Gameweek, only 5.7 million transfers were made, the third lowest so far. Will this number be sustained, or will the quick turnover in rounds catch out those less attentive?

There are two notable trends to monitor: the move towards midfield investment to set up a 3-5-2 formation and the drive to acquire an active bench ahead of the Christmas schedule.

Pogba as a potentially cheap heavy-hitter, along with the emerging cut-price options in attack, can only help facilitate matters.

The movement away from Man City assets is also of interest.

The fact that Leroy Sane is the only significant riser among City’s squad indicates that rotation concerns may be reducing confidence and encouraging managers to consider alternatives. The trades from Silva and Sterling to Pogba illustrate this and could continue, depending on Gameweek 13 performances.

Nick and Tom WGTA We're Individual and Matamatics on FFS, and started our own site to add our voice to the FPL community and for FFS in particular.

961 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Relax Sterling owners he's got five days and BSilva is playing too.

    1. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      One of Sterling or Aguero will miss out then

      1. FDMS All Starz
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Pep said Kun and Jesus cant play together so my bet is on sterling to stry

  2. Jonesfromthere
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    what are Kun owners doing? So done with this season.

    1. Yozzer
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      He's going.

    2. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Taking him out for Lacazette. I know theres Morata but I cant afford Morata as I want to bring in Otamendi for Long. Next week though ill get Morata in for Lukaku.

      1. Qaiss
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        so I'm taking a -4

        1. Norrin Radd
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          -4 could work well in your situation. Niether Aguero or Long will start at the weekend.

          1. Qaiss
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Yeah, that's my thinking. Hope it works.

    3. walkman666
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Not sure. Might sell or might hold and then swap to a cheap forward for gw14. The man city v huddersfield game is Sunday, which means quite a bit of recovery time. Plus, what if Aguero comes off after 70 minutes or so...? Huddersfield could be a rest or a bonanza.

      1. Jonesfromthere
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        He doesn't play the two together and can't see Jesus being rested two games in a row. Kun won't start regardless, imo. Probably going to sell.

        1. walkman666
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Go ahead and sell. I still think the risk/reward scenario of selling is not as good as holding. I think Kun gets some playing time this weekend against Huddersfield, and if Bournemouth can get four goals, Man City can get 8.

    4. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Selling for Morata, I think.

      1. Slartibartfast
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Aguero + Jones -> Morata + Alonso -4

        Possibly a week early, but should pay off longterm and I'll be priced out if I don't do it this week.

    5. Norrin Radd
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Has to go for me. So frustrating seeing him start tonight after his no show at the weekend.

    6. Lazaretti
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      If he doesn't start against HUD then I will get rid of him.

      Kun needs to get out of city if Pep sees him just as a rotation player.

    7. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      The smart ones Sold him for lukaku last week.

      1. walkman666
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        And got 1 more point than my sub, Loftus-Cheek.

    8. Jack Burton
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      1 more week i have kane so at least i can swap for lukaku or morata

  3. XabiAlonso
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Kane to score a brace tonight then blank on the weekend

    1. Spike ⚽️
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      He might not even start

      1. Qaiss
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        what makes you think that?

        1. Spike ⚽️
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          It's West Brom. Lorente could get a run out

          1. Qaiss
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            And Spurs need to bounce back. Kane will start.

      2. Yozzer
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        He will. Who would replace him. We garbage without him

        1. Qaiss
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          This. Llorente is rubbish. Pochettino didn't even start him against Man United when Kane was out.

  4. F4L
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Time to bite the bullet and get Sane

    1. TooDifficuIt
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      wait to see if he's inured first

      1. F4L
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        surely only a rest? Will wait ofc

      2. Ode
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        This

  5. MURPH707
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    When do the - points come off? Mine still haven’t come off for this week

  6. Rajveer
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    A) Eriksen > Sane

    Or

    B) Sterling > Pogba...

    1. Spike ⚽️
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      B
      You know Eriksen will play

  7. Yozzer
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    To be fair sterling has 5 days to recouporate

  8. barracuda
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    I do apologize if this has been answered already but why isn't Niasse flagged?

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Because the ban hasn't been confirmed for the length.

    2. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      he's got till Friday to respond

    3. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Cheers

  9. Lanley Staurel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    This game can stressful enough without this City rotation malarky. Pleased Ive only got Silva and Otamendi.

  10. LosBlancos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Considering Niasse's banned and Sterling is playing - should I start DCL (SOU) instead of Sterling?

    1. FDMS All Starz
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Start sterling, even if he is benched he can come on and score and if he doesn't play then DCL can come off your bench

    2. Limited & Mediocre Mana…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      No

  11. ooooo
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    DDG
    Azpi Jones Otamendi
    Salah Silva Richarlison Choupo
    Kane Lukaku Abraham

    Elliot Ward Dunk Carroll

    Jones to Yedlin? Can do Choupo to Pogba then next week...

  12. FDMS All Starz
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Surely if Kun & B-silva both complete 90mins & sterling & getting subbed around 60/70mins will mean sterling-Jesus-sane will start in the weekend right? So no need to panic just yet sterling owners, wait few more hours before confirming anything

    1. Yozzer
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      You make sence but how do we combat the rage?

      1. FDMS All Starz
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        I think owning a city player we have the accept the fact that they will be dropped out of the blue anytime and jus hope that they come off the bench to score

  13. DAZZ
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Any kane morata and aguero owners not knowing what to do but you think you want to keep aguero for the upcoming 2 home games? Cant just be me

    1. walkman666
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Yes. I may swap out for a cheap forward in gw14, yet as you suggest, he could score big in those home games against Southampton and West Ham.

  14. Rajveer
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Any chance of anyone rising and dropping in price tonight??

    1. Fred54
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Yes.

      1. Rajveer
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Like??

        1. Fred54
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Upvote for more info.

          1. Thiga
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            😆

  15. F4L
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Liverpool game tonight will be a cracker. Cant wait

  16. JogaSemmedo
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Best Jones replacement?

    Current defence is

    Jones Davies Daniels Naughton Mbemba

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Mustafi or Maguire

    2. 404_FC
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      kola > monreal > mustafi

    3. royals forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Mee or Duffy

    4. Sedemuda
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Smalling

  17. Yozzer
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    What if kun gets an hatty and comes off at 60 - 70 ?

    1. walkman666
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Even if he does not score at all, if he comes off after 60-70, I am definitely holding.

    2. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      waving goodbye still. Just aint worth the agro

      1. SuperMane Returns
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        AGueRO lol...

    3. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Think ill hold for next 3, and will monitor rashfords minutes and returns over next 3.

  18. Henning
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    My plan is to use my 2 free transfer this week and take a hit next.
    Yes or no to get Sane Pogba Azpi Niasse in for
    Silva Eriksen Yoshida Abraham?

    1. royals forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Not Niasse Wilson instead

  19. FDMS All Starz
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Do we think this time Mourinho could be bluffing about Jones missing the weekend game? Or he being real now?

    1. royals forever
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I think it’s for real now

    2. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Why would he bluff? They're playing Brighton, lol.

    3. Rajveer
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Even if he is fit I don't think he will be rushed back with rojo coming back...

    4. Ode
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Who knows?

  20. royals forever
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    If Abraham is ruled out next week what is my best option

    Play Mee (ARS) in a 4-4-2
    Play Gross (mun) in a 3-5-2
    Do Abraham > Wilson/Niasse

    Currently on B but any other ideas would be welcomed

  21. 404_FC
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    why no have name sane on the bench ?

    is that worth to transfer sterling to sane or pogba ?

  22. Pompel
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Are you keeping Otamendi over xmas? Or will he also see too much rotation?

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Depends on the length of the Stones injury. I don't think Pep trusts Mangala so I think Kompany and Otamendi are fine for now

  23. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    This Niasse drama has really made my plans a mess. I will be forced to play Knockaert or Duffy v UTD if he's banned as expected.

    Presume few on here in same situation??

  24. Emiliano Sala
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Time to sell jones?

    1. Ibracadabra
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I will only sell Jones if Kiko Femenia is confirmed out; that will leave me with two playing defenders (against each other - Ward and Mustafi).

      If Kiko is fit, I won't take the -4. Selling Jones requires a -4 for me as I plan on Stones to Mustafi for free.

      1. walkman666
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        I also have Jones and Kiko. I am selling Jones as he is definitely out, and his injury history does not inspire confidence.

        1. Ibracadabra
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          I have Stones injured and Francis suspended, so first priority is Stones out as he is a) most expensive and b) out 4-6 weeks. I only have 1 FT. So Stones to Mustafi leaves me with 3 playing defenders if Kiko is fit.

          I have owned Jones since GW1 at 5m so can absorb a price drop and still sell at 5.2m next week if he's not back.

          IF (and only IF) I hear Kiko is ruled out, then I will also sell Jones.

          Unique situation that I can't remember in a very long time, to have 4 defenders potentially injured/suspended, so need to do some surgery there but hoping to avoid it without a -4 if Kiko recovers.

          Just have no idea what the latest is on Kiko...

          1. walkman666
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Dang. Jones, Stones, Francis and Kiko?!? Oh, that is so not right! Good luck. I have googled Kiko repeatedly, yet there is no news.

    2. Pieterke30
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Yes

      But not for a hit as far as Im concerned

    3. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Very difficult decision. He's the best value defender in the game if he plays. So if he should be back for Watford and plays majority of games during xmas, probably worth keeping. You might want him back later anyway

  25. Ha.
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Maguire or Mustafi?

    1. the snazzy viking
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Maguire

  26. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Jesus owners what are you doing?

    A. Keeping one more week
    B. Getting rid this week
    C. Keeping for now

    1. UnitedFan
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Getting rid i think. Going for a cheap forward and then getting Hazard and Sane.

    3. the snazzy viking
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A

  27. Pieterke30
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    So, Sterling on the bench this weekend?

    1. Qaiss
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      not necessarily

    2. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      He might only play 60 minutes tonight

    3. DA Minnion (Former great)
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Don't know. See how long he plays tonight.

  28. El_Shaw
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Lindelof worth a one week punt before I WC?

    1. Ibracadabra
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Could be Bailly/Smalling - so it's a no for me.

      1. El_Shaw
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Good point.

  29. ooooo
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Had planned to do
    Abraham + Choupo + Lukaku to Niasse + Pogba + Morata over the next few games.

    Still do it and just replace Niasse with another 5.0mil?

  30. Rainer
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Kompany & Sane injured?

    1. Syd.
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Rested