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The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. My heart goes Salalalalah
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Kane (C)

  2. Rupert The Horse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Foster for the win.

  3. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    A. Kane + Gross or
    B. Lacazette + Coutinho

    Thanks.

    1. Jimbo-Jones
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A.
      Lacazette is frustrating to own.

    2. LosBlancos
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      B

    3. Stats Don\'t Lie
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      B

    4. Pegboy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A, easily. Laca still not a viable option for me.

    5. La Gazzetta
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A

  4. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Any moves needed?

    Mee in for Mustafi if need be.

    Hennessey
    Alonso / Mustafi / Moreno
    Hazard / Salah / Sterling / Richalison / Loftus-Cheek
    Kane / Morata

    Speroni / Mee / Francis / Niasse

    1ft, 0.2itb

    1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Save it I think, unless you want to try DCL in for Niasse before any changes

      1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Not against Liverpool. More than happy to bench a 4.9m striker.

        1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Assumed that was the case 🙂 Hopefully he gets his chance the week after!

          1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Fingers crossed. Easy move to DCL if not.

    2. Edmond
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Save FT

      1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks.

    3. La Gazzetta
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Looks more like the template every time I see it. If you had DCL i think it just about would be (minus the keepers). I love Alonso but I think Christensen and Kola is better than Alonso and Mustafi personally, just from what I've seen in games

  5. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    That's an interesting concept (obvs can't see the actual article) 🙂

    1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Pretty much says Hennessey / Speroni double up is the way of the future!

      1. Winston.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Might choose these on WC as well, so cheap

        1. We Will Klopp you
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          I'm looking to get whichever is no.1 in once that becomes clear, conveniently leaves enough to get Heaton in for Pope when he's back

      2. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Hmmm... I'm happy with DDG at the mo 😛

  6. Jimbo-Jones
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Ok to use 1 of my 2FTs to just upgrade Rosenior for Xmas period?
    Gives me 2 FTs next week.

    DDG
    Otamendi Azpi Mee
    Sane Salah Richarlison Gross
    Morata Kane Abraham

    Elliot, RLC, Duffy, Rosenior

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Ha. No Hazard.

    2. Mateja
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Abraham->DCL and Sane->Hazard

      1. Jimbo-Jones
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks.
        £0.7m away from above move. And would be nervous about having no City forwards.

        Kane/Morata are only two to fund Haz.
        Kane I'm holding; Morata -> Haz seems too sideways.

  7. LosBlancos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    (C)outinho to dominate the game

    1. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Mane says hi.

  8. LosBlancos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Whats hapening with the FFS cups btw?

    1. Chenku╰☆╮
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Been abandoned due to the train fare rises and internet issues.

      1. LosBlancos
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        your grav is braking my screen

    2. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Just doing a final check on the draw.

      Qualifying score looks likely to be 55 - not sure on the rank required to go with that, though.

      1. LosBlancos
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        cool, thanks Mark 🙂

  9. LosBlancos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    G2G?
    Schmeichel
    Alonso Otamendi Daniels (Duffy, Mbemba)
    Coutinho Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison
    Morata Rooney (DCL)
    1FT .2m itb

    C torn between Couta and Haz, will assess after Liv game tonight

    1. MartialMatas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      think id go haz
      g2g

    2. GAMBIT
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      C Hazard

  10. MartialMatas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Any reason not to do Sane and Alonso to Christensen and Hazard now?

    Begovic Elliot
    Alonso Otamendi Mee Naughton Duffy
    Salah Sane Sterling Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata Abraham

    2ft 1m itb
    WC still available

    1. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Niether are rising or falling. Might as well wait a day or two.

    2. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Alonso nailed this weekend.

  11. Erez Avni
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Which cheap striker is best for next 2-3 GW?
    a. Tammy
    b. Dcl
    c. Austin
    d. Bony
    c. someone else

    cheers!

    1. MartialMatas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      dcl

    2. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      B

  12. BenjaminFlow
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Should I do Eriksen + Jesus to Hazard + X (max 8.9m)? If so, which striker under 8.9m should I get? Vardy? Firmino? Someone form 6-7m price range?

    1. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Firm

    2. Davidinho
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Do it for Firmino

  13. Feyzi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    xGoals just proves where statistics are least valuable. Look at over/under stats and you will see why. It is the most underwhelming stats on this page. I use it mainly because I know it will not be helpful. Every stats on this page are valuable. Except xGoals. It is our duty to find out why so that we can bette ourselves, but that is about all the stats are useful.

  14. FPLAdmiral
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Is Alonso worth the money chaps? Undecided on A or B -

    (A) Better XI - Alonso, Mustafi, Mbemba (Bench), Niasse (Bench)
    (B) Better Squad - Christensen, Otamendi, Kiko (Rotate), DCL (Rotate) +0.2m

    Pope (Elliot)
    __, __, __, Moreno, Mee
    Hazard, Salah, Sterling, Richarlison, RLC
    __, Kane, Morata

  15. FPL Virgin
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Is xG Prevented available in the members area stats tables?

    1. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Not yet, but will be in the next update out soon. We're just trying to sanity check the Fouls for Shots stat for refs and then we've some tidying to do. I reckon next week will be rolling it out. So nice new widgets included too.

      1. FPL Virgin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks, Mark.

  16. Edmond
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    So quick vote lads, who do you think is the best Chelsea defensive option?

    a) Alonso
    b) Azpilicueta
    c) Christensen

    1. MartialMatas
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      a points c value

  17. MartialMatas
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    This De Gea guy is pretty good isn't he?

    1. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah. This really demonstrated the massive gulf and just how many points he's winning United.

      1. Edmond
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Do you think De Gea is a good option Mark?

        Never fancied the expensive GKs.

        1. barracuda
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          This season is different. I brought him in 4 GWs ago and regret not bringing him earlier.

          1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Ditto

    2. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Yeah. Ignored Heaton last season and regreted it. Been avoiding De Gea so far but after seeing their fixtures after this weekend through till january i'm going to splash out on a luxuary keeper for the first time.

    3. william prunier
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      If it wasn't for Jones I'd have already got him in

      1. SCZCCOLA
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        This

  18. Frozen flying mammoth
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Would you:
    A) Sane to Coutinho
    B) sub out Elliot/Niasse
    C) save transfer

    1FT
    1.9m ITB

    Pope (Elliot)
    Trippier, Azpi, Monreal, Ward (Otamendi)
    GroB, Hazard, Sane, Salah, Richardison
    Morata (Diouf, Niasse)

  19. Bebotok
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    A. Davies-Alonso
    B. Cedric-Kolasinac

    Thanks..

  20. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    There are Lies, damned Lies and Statistics.

    1. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A. DDG&Pereira + Christensen or
      B. Hennessey&Speroni + Alonso

      Thanks.

      1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        A

  21. Pirlø's Pen
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Looking set? 0FT. 0.0ITB.

    Pope
    Alonso Otamendi Maguire
    Salah Coutinho Sterling Richarilson Loftus-Cheek
    Kane(c) Morata

    Elliot Daniels Ward Niasse

    Cheers.

    1. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Really good!

  22. Davidinho
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Any ideas how to work Hazard into this team?

    Foster Elliot
    Alonso Ota Mee Moreno Naughton
    Sane Salah RLC Carroll Richarlison
    Kane Morata Firmino

    2FT £0.0 itb

    I'm currently on Firmino + Sane -> Hazard + DLC whch would leave me enough to do Carroll to Choupo-Moting at some point soon. A good bench could be important over Christmas.

    1. william prunier
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I'm in similar situation. Going to wait for Morata suspension.
      In b4 Costa comments

    2. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Downgrade Firmino. Or Kane if you are chasing and want to be brave.

      1. Davidinho
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        I considered Firmnio but then Sane + Firmino just seems better than Hazard + DLC. Maybe not though Given Pep's rotation and Klopp may play Sturridge from time to time.

  23. Athletic Nasherbo
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Which option is better?

    A) Christensen and Coutinho
    B) Alonso and Ramsey

    1. william prunier
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. La Gazzetta
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      B. All 4 are good options. I like Christensen Coutinho and Ramsey as pretty cheap for what they offer.

    4. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A

  24. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Who gets more points this week?

    a) Hazard and Kiko
    b) Richarlison and Azpi

    1. william prunier
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. GreenArrows
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A

    3. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A

    4. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A

  25. GreenArrows
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Never done transfers before a CL week but bit the bullet Saturday night and did Lukaku + Fernandinhio > DCL + Hazard

    gtg for the weekend if no injuries etc?

    Pope
    Daniels Mee Moreno
    Hazard (C) Salah Silva Richarlison
    DLC Kane Mortata

    Elliot RLC Duffy Jones

    0.8itb 0FT

    0.8 to be used to transfer out elliot...or upgrade Jones to Oteamendi

    1. La Gazzetta
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I would've made the same move and they came out unscathed so hopefully the rest do too. I think your plan for the 0.8 is wise

  26. JoeJitzu +42
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Bench 2:

    A. Otamendi (mun)
    B. Daniels (cry)
    C. Mee (WAT)
    D. Moreno (EVE)
    E. Mbemba (LEI)

    Currently on B & E.....

    1. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      C E Watford will score

    2. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      DE

    3. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I think you may not have a choice ?

      D E

    4. My Name Is Pepu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      D)
      E)

  27. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    A. DDG&Pereira + Christensen or
    B. Hennessey&Speroni + Alonso

    Thanks.

  28. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Is having a bench of Elliot Daniels Holgate Carroll just too weak to go into the winter period with?

    1. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Yes

  29. Fletcher Moss
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Pope (Elliot)
    Ward Dunk Daniels (Jones Kenny)
    Hazard Salah Sterling Richarlison Groß
    Kane Morata (Niasse)

    1FT & £0.6m ITB.

    No urgent moves, all going well tonight/tomorrow. Still have my wildcard so no rush to lose Elliot and have kept Jones for the long term.

    Niasse to DCL seems tempting, or is it best to wait it out since it’s only a bench spot? More info on Sam’s Everton may help, or 2FTs will mean I can potentially spend more than £5.6m up top if required.

  30. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Considering going without Hazard just for this week. Wouldn't be captaining him anyway when he's primed for an early sub. Nervous.

    1. I Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Same. Will get him for free next GW rather than taking a hit this week unless something changes between now and the deadline. Fingers crossed.

    2. barracuda
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Had his rest last week. He will start. They played at home yesterday.

    3. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      risky

    4. La Gazzetta
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I did that last week and didn't work out. Good luck!