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The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Claudio555
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Yedlin>Klavan?

    1. Deano
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Later in the week.

    2. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      lol

  2. Chucky
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    any news on lascelles?

    1. Deano
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Wait for PC.

      1. Chucky
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        and when is that?

      1. Chucky
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        thanks

    2. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      *lolcelles

      1. Chucky
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        😀

        1. Jafooli
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          😉

  3. Eddie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Has the Scout Cup been drawn yet?

  4. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    A) I can only get Hazard by selling Coutinho which I'm not keen on OR selling Kane, is Hazard really that essential atm? My mid is Cout,Salah,Sterling,Groß,RLC.

    B) Got 2 FT, spending even one this GW may be trouble cuz I'm content atm, do I do Niasse to Lewin so I don't waste one FT, cheers boys

    1. Podge
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      More essential than Kane in my opinion

    2. terrypaulpearce
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I think Haz is almost essential in a general sense, but maybe not in the middle of a run of 5 matches in 15 days. Wait until a couple of gw's time, I'd say.

      Niasse to Lewin is probably solid.

      1. Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Ty

  5. cheese XL
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Gtg?
    1ft, 0itb

    Pope
    Azpi Otamendi Moreno
    Salah(vc) Sane Richarlison Gross Sterling
    Kane(c) Morata

    Elliot DLC Dunk Mbemba

  6. JJJ
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    going to drop Daniels after this GW

    A- Zeegelaar
    or
    B- Kabasele

    thanks

    1. Kloppage Time
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I´m doing the same thing but looking at Sakho

  7. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    When does the Ashes start?

    1. Jafooli
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      *gets popcorn*

    2. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      After the fire

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      As a contest in 2019

    4. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      When Phoenix starts to rise.

    5. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      When Stokes decides to turn up

      1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        ..and that's only if he gets it abandoned with a few big uppercuts

  8. Alan_T
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    RMT is so weird.

  9. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Pope Elliot
    Alonso Walker Moreno Kolasinac Hunemeier
    Salah Sterling Richarlison Choupo RLC
    Kane Morata Abraham
    2ft, 0.9m itb
    Sterling and Walker to Hazard and Sakho decent moves?

  10. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    PVA fit again, quite liked the look of him before his injury.

    Daniels replacement.

    1. Alan_T
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Where did he play under Woy?

      1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Left Back/ Wing back. Very attacking, often gets slated for being too attacking leaving the defence vulnerable.

    2. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Good Spot

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Schlupp seems pretty nailed now Palace are more solid

      1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Oh! tx

    4. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Big Sam will go after him in January surely.

  11. The Overthinker
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    What would you do with this ?
    1 FT , 1.1 ITB

    Courtois
    Azpi - mee - verto
    Salah - Sterling - Ramsey - gross - RLC
    Kane - Morata

    Elliot - otamendi - Francis - niasse

    I am leaning towards Francis to tarkowski

  12. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Mertens, Aboubakar or Coutinho as C for FCL today?

    1. J T
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I’m on Courtinho, first time I’ve took it off Neymar.. so far so good

      1. Atimis
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Yah, Coutinho should be good if there are no changes

        1. J T
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Hope you followed through 😀

  13. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    What's wrong with Silva? Time to sell or rested for the weekend?

    1. Moin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I think rest for the weekend.

    2. d3bug
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I'm thinking Silva > Ramsey
      Even if he's fit & rested

      1. Vlad Tepes
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        I made that transfer after the game on sunday. I don't think Silva is worth the money right now, correct me if I am wrong. Ramsey looks better and cheaper.

    3. Arctic monkeys
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      "It's all the truth, no stories about Lacazette and Silva". Mourinho knows.

  14. Sickboy
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Foster / Daniels -> DeGea / Kenny seem a sound move after this week?

    DDG is expensive but it would quickly resolve my keeper situation!

    Thanks in advance

  15. Dele
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Start Mee or RLC?

    Also have Pope & Sakho...

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      RLC

  16. wulfrunian
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Watford Observer
    "Watford captain Troy Deeney linked with Everton after Sam Allardyce green light."

    1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Would bring Gray further in as an option...

  17. built_this_city
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    FEUER FREI

    1. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      BANG BANG

  18. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Is Mbemba first choice again or just filing in for injuries?

    Could really do with not wasting a transfer on him...

    1. Arctic monkeys
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Are you saying a transfer involving Mbemba out wasted, how dare you ?

  19. FPL ZB
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Excellent Reddit post. If someone passes a penalty and their teammate taps it in (like messi and Suarez), do they get minus points for a ‘missed’ pen?

    1. Arctic monkeys
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Imagine Milner trying to do that.

    2. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Must do surely.

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      They do if its Pires and Henry...

    4. Ronnie Hotdog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      missed penalty + assist probably

    5. d3bug
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      But.. but he still gets the assist

    6. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I'd say assist and goal - the act of the 'tap' penalty is still alive...nothing is actually missed till the ball is out, hits goalframe or keeper saves

  20. Jet5605
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Hey guys, 2FT (0 ITB) and still have my WC available.

    Should I do Azpi & Sterling > Haz & Mariappa this week and then play my WC after Kane v Stoke/Brighton?

    DDG
    Christiensen - Daniels - Azpi
    Salah - Sterling - GroB - Richarlison
    Morata - Kane - Vardy

    Elliott - Mee - Carroll - Mbemba

  21. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    This Kenny will be nailed?

  22. Deano
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Any truth to the rumour that the ECB has advertised for overseas players for the next Ashes series after realizing that English cricketers are just no good?

    1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Looking for another Pietersen maybe?

    2. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      May have a better team than us in Australian conditions.

      But the Barmy Army outnumbered fifty to one, wiped the floor with their opposition, even without our legendary trumpet player.

  23. Wheato182
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Good to go this week guys?

    Pope
    Mee - Naughton - Alonso
    Hazard (C) - Salah - Gross - RLC
    Kane - Morata - DCL

    Elliott - Pogba - Kiko - Mustafi

    1. Deano
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Pogba out surely. Ramsey?

      1. Wheato182
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Would be for a hit and benching RLC at home to Bournemouth or DCL away to liverpool.

        1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          I'd do it and bench DCL

          1. Deano
            • 11 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Or Gross.

            1. Wheato182
              • 11 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              I've gone for it and benching DCL. Gross the BPS magnet would be third choice tbh. Cheers guys

    2. STEP rOVERS
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Hmmm Pogba out for Ramsey and play him ahead of DCL

  24. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Messi’s new contract breakdown;

    1. La Roja
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Copy and paste fail

  25. Ask Yourself
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Oi
    1) Mariappa (bur)
    2 Moreno (EVE) -4

  26. pundit of punts
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Evening all 😀

    DDG
    Otamendi - Daniels - Ake
    Hazrd - Salah - Sterling - Richarlison
    Kane - Morata - DCl

    Pereira - RLC - Tarkowski - Hunemeier

    No hits. 0.7m itb. Ake ➡ Christensen next gw.

    How's she looking?

    1. The Wanton Trader
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      V nice...

    2. william prunier
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I'd start rlc over dcl

  27. @fplfox
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Hi guys, I need help...
    Have 1mil itb, either:
    Pogba➡️Hazard, Jesus➡️Firmino, cost = -4.
    Or
    Pogba➡️Coutinho, cost = 0
    Or
    Jesus➡️Firmino gw16, then Pogba➡️Hazard/Coutinho gw17, cost = 0.
    Thoughts?

    1. Ask Yourself
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      First one or second first just edges it

    2. Udo
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      2nd in my opinion

    3. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I would the first option and take the -4 as I can see Hazard and Firmino in the goals this weekend...........

    4. KingOfLuck
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      First of all wait for Liverpool game tonight, injuries and minutes played will be interesting when it comes to Cou and Firmino. But other than that I would transfer out Pogba this GW and get Haz asap, which makes me end up on the first choice.

      1. Corgz Dark side of the Loon
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        100% agree with the above comment, wait till tonight games are over. However having been to every West Ham home game this season, Hazard could play 5 mins and get a hat trick ....!!!!!

    5. @fplfox
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Any thoughts on a different striker depending on cl tonight then? Maby giroud depending on Europa?

  28. The Big Fella
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Might we escape a Pogba drop this week?

  29. Garlana
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Which move:

    A: Alonso and Silva to christensen and hazard
    B: monreal and Silva to zeegeler and hazard

    Current team below:

    Foster
    Alonso, monreal, dunk, Daniels, mee
    Silva, sterling, richarlison, salah, Carroll
    Kane, morata, niasse

    1. Wheato182
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I like A tbh

      1. Garlana
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks, tough one as I know as soon as I let Alonso go is when he gets another goal

        1. Wheato182
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Actually think Alonso's due a rest, Christensen has looked a threat from set pieces as well and seems better suited for BPS - its a transfer im considering myself tbh.

  30. Champions united
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Any News on mustafi

    1. william prunier
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Wenger isn't reliable with team news