Chelsea Reviewed

Personally, I find that putting things in writing helps me organise my thoughts so I am going to make a series of articles about next season’s Premier League teams from a Fantasy Premier League (FPL) perspective, including a look back on the season just gone and a look forward to 2015-16.

Some will say that it is far too early to do this – we don’t know Fantasy Football player prices yet and we don’t know about players coming in or leaving. For me that doesn’t matter; indeed, it’s part of the point. If we can make an appraisal now we will have a platform from which to assess value and to view any subsequent changes. So I will start with the champions – Chelsea.

CHELSEA OVERVIEW

Chelsea ended the season as the second highest scorers with 73 goals and the meanest defence with 32 conceded. Interestingly the goals scored matches the tallies of Jose Mourinho’s 2004-05 and 2005-06 Premier League-winning teams almost exactly; both scored 72 goals. However, the defence this season has not been as good as in those seasons (15 and 22 goals conceded).

Many casual observers would draw the inference that Jose is building a typical Mourinho team – defensive, pragmatic, tough and tactical. In part, that is true: Mourinho values the mental qualities that enable a team to win extremely highly. But the idea that he can’t build teams to attack is misplaced, I think. His Real Madrid 2011-12 team holds the goals scored record in the major European leagues (121 goals) and his brief from Abramovich is to build a team with attacking flair – that’s what Cesc Fabregas was brought in for.

In many ways it has been a season of two halves for Chelsea, and the Diego Costa ban (for stamping) against Liverpool on 27 January was probably the turning point. After that, Chelsea were without Costa for substantial periods through suspension and injury, Loic Remy was also unavailable for much of the time through injury and Chelsea had to rely on a 36-year-old Didier Drogba who has lost some of his pace and power and was never 100% fit either. It is not surprising that Mourinho turned to defensive pragmatism under those circumstances.

Chelsea scored 51 league goals in the first 22 games (up to 17th January), an average of 2.32 goals per game. Had they kept that rate going for the whole season they’d have ended up with 88 goals. However after Costa was banned they only scored 22 goals in their last 16 games, averaging 1.37 goals per game. At the same time, the defence tightened up and only eight goals were conceded in the 13 games leading up to the title was clinched – a miserly average of 0.62 goals against per game.

DEFENCE

The good news for FPL managers is that the Chelsea defence will probably be even more predictable next season. Cech will almost certainly leave and Chelsea will probably sign someone like Rob Green as cover for Courtois. But there will be less risk of Courtois missing league games.

Filipe Luis may well leave as well; he’s a top class left-back and hasn’t enjoyed spending so much time on the bench. Jose might go with Nathan Ake as cover at left full-back, but alternatively there is talk of him signing someone like Aaron Cresswell. Kurt Zouma has done very well and will cover for Gary Cahill and John Terry.

The only uncertainties apart from that are Ivanovic (who only has one year left on his contract and wants a three-year deal rather than the 1-year extension which is Chelsea’s policy for players over 30) and Terry who is now 34. That is not too old for a centre-back, however, and there is no reason to think Terry is anywhere near being phased out as long as he avoids any serious injury. I think both will start as reliable options in a back-four that is unlikely to change: Ivanovic – Cahill – Terry – Cesar Azpilicueta. I believe all the talk about Raphael Varane will prove to be hot air and I can’t imagine the new Real manager wanting to let him go anyway.

For attacking points, Ivanovic and Terry are the obvious picks, though Cahill is also capable from set plays. Ivanovic plays very far forward when Chelsea are not in defensive mode, and they won’t be at the start of next season. Terry is the best centre-back at attacking set pieces that I have ever seen and is the highest scoring defender in Premier League history.

MIDFIELD

This is where there may be the most change in the summer. Chelsea’s financial position is very strong after registering profits in three of the last four seasons and they are well inside FFP regulations (which are going to be eased anyway). A Paul Pogba or a Gareth Bale is affordable; in fact, both are affordable. Chelsea’s top earner is Hazard on around 210k per week so the wages are there too.

Many Chelsea fans would identify those two positions as the ones where improvement is most needed. Fabregas is somewhat weak positionally/defensively when playing alongside Nemanja Matic. It doesn’t matter against most opponents but in really tough games Jose has had to turn to John Obi Mikel or Ramires with Fabregas in the hole and neither Ramires nor Mikel are really of high enough quality for a team that wants to win the Champions League.

In addition, Matic played 47 of 54 games and was clearly feeling it towards the end. Next season, Chelsea could easily be playing 60+ games again and there will be more need to rest key players. Someone like Pogba would obviously be a great addition but there is also the possibility that Chelsea will bring Marco van Ginkel into the first team squad after his loan spell at AC Milan. Mourinho has said: “He covers a fantastic area of the field defensively and after that he has this instinct where he wants to go into finishing areas, he wants to score goals. He’s very good in the air.” If Van Ginkel stays, and if he begins to start regularly, he could be a surprise value option next season.

The Bale question is open because there is an element of “stop Hazard, stop Chelsea”, although Hazard moves around so much that he’s very difficult to negate. But the other flank is a problem position at Chelsea which no-one has been able to nail down. Willian offers fantastic work rate and technique but tends to lack end product; Salah has been brilliant at Fiorentina but may be one of those players that needs to be a big fish in a smaller pond; Cuadrado has the international pedigree and performance history but has yet to show it at Chelsea – that’s what has Chelsea fans thinking about Bale.

As it stands, I think that Cuadrado could actually do very well next season if the squad stays more or less the same. Those who watched him at Udinese and Fiorentina and at the World Cup will know how dangerous he can be and his recent performances show he’s beginning to settle in at Chelsea. He has more of a goal threat than Willian, he is very direct and is always trying to get into the box.

Oscar is very variable, he has a lot of ability and works hard but the feeling is he has yet to give Chelsea a 100% season. It could even be that he leaves to join David Luiz at PSG though Mourinho seems to have hopes that with an overdue rest in the summer and a proper pre-season he will deliver on his potential:  “I have a feeling that Oscar, next year, can have the same evolution that Hazard had this season.”

THE BIG TWO – FABREGAS AND HAZARD

As Fabregas showed in the first half of the season, he can be deadly as an assist machine from central midfield. Not explosive, but steady and productive. However it should be noted that he is very capable of scoring lots of goals too if played further forward. For Arsenal he scored 13, 3, 19, 9 in his last four seasons there; for Barcelona he scored 15, 14, 13 over three seasons. This season he has scored five goals. I think he’s a good pick if he comes in around 9.0 next season. But if it became apparent that Fabregas would more often play in the hole then he’d be near to being a must.

Hazard is special, obviously. His dribbling makes him a bonus point magnet, he is crucial to Chelsea’s attacking style and he gets a lot of goals and assists. Apparently the fact that he didn’t take the last penalty of the season does not mean he’s not first choice penalty taker. He’ll probably be priced at 11.0+ though and the assessment of whether Hazard or Fabregas will be the better value choice will be a hard one.

STRIKERS

I am a big fan of Costa. Considering he has had an injury-ravaged season where he has missed 12 entire games out of 38 and has only played the full 90 minutes nine times, 20 goals is quite an achievement. The Chelsea medical staff are excellent and will be working with him all summer to manage and remedy the hamstring problems he has had. There is every reason to hope for a less disrupted 2015-16 season.

Remy has shown himself to be an excellent squad member and he has managed seven league goals with very little game time. I’d have no question about having him in my FPL team if Costa were injured for a prolonged period – the managers that did that this season were very unlucky in my view (though I wasn’t one of them). There will also be space for a third striker, quite possibly Bamford now that Middlesbrough have missed out on promotion. But Costa will undoubtedly be the main man.

NEXT SEASON

I have been thinking about setting my FPL team up in a 4-4-2 next season and I had a double Chelsea defence very much in mind. Last time a Mourinho Chelsea defended the Premier League title (2005-06) they began the season with six consecutive clean sheets and only conceded nine goals in 20 games before the New Year.

But writing this persuades me to stay away from that to some degree. I think this Chelsea era is different and that they will be quite attacking at the start of next season (as they were at the start of the 2014-15 season). In that case, one Chelsea defender will be enough to start with. I don’t mind whether it’s Ivanovic or Terry; it will depend on prices and how my budget is working out.

Costa is an absolute must for me if he is fit in pre-season. He will be in my Gameweek 1 team, quite likely as captain.

That leaves room for one midfielder and that’s where I am less certain. I have a feeling I will prefer Fabregas to Hazard if the price difference is significant but I would also seriously consider Cuadrado if he looked like nailing down a regular starting spot. This position is probably the one that depends most on what happens in the summer.