Last week, YMA took a look at how a combination of bookies odds, fixture difficulty and form could potentially be used as a tool in helping choose a captain for the Fantasy Premier League.
With the formula used it correctly predicted Costa as the most likely to score points across Gameweek 8. Let’s see what Gameweek 9 has on offer.
Refining the Odds
Let’s take six popular captaincy options for the upcoming Gameweek and rank them from 1-6 according to their likelihood to score (according to the bookies), we will take these same players and rank them from 1-6 according to fixture, this will be worked out using goals conceded and big chances conceded from the last four games.
We will then apply the same ranking to form, looking at points per game, goals and assists over the last four games.
Bookies Odds
Rank Player Odds
1. Aguero 5/6
2. Sanchez 10/11
3. Lukaku Evens
4. Walcott 11/10
5. Costa 13/10
6. Son 8/5
Fixtures
Rank Player Fixture Goals Conceded Big Chances Conceded
1. Lukaku (bur) 7 10
2. Son (bou) 7 7
3.5 Sanchez (MID) 7 2
3.5 Walcott (MID) 7 2
5. Costa (MUN) 2 4
6. Aguero (SOT) 1 1
Form
Rank Player PPG Goals Assists
1. Walcott 10 4 2
2. Sanchez 8 3 2
3. Lukaku 7.5 3 1
4. Costa 7 3 1
5. Son 6.25 2 1
6. Aguero 4 2 0
Results
Rank Player Odds Fixture Form Total
1. Lukaku 3 1 3 7.0
2. Sanchez 2 3.5 2 7.5
3. Walcott 4 3.5 1 8
4. Son 6 2 5 13
5. Aguero 1 6 6 13
6. Costa 5 5 4 14
Taking odds, fixture and form into account, Romelu Lukaku is the most likely to deliver attacking returns this Gameweek with Alexis Sanchez a close second.
Sanchez and Theo Walcott have been given a 3.5 on the fixture rating as they both face the same opposition.
Aguero’s fixture certainly needs mentioning, Southampton have only conceded one goal in the last four games and an astonishingly low one big chance conceded over this same period. That should be particularly alarming for would be Aguero captainers.
Good luck for Gameweek 9
7 years, 5 months ago
I've gone Sanchez. This is reassuring. Or worrying. One of those.