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What The Fixtures and Form Say – Gameweek 22 Captaincy

This article aims to help Fantasy Premier League (FPL) Managers in their choice for the best captaincy option for the forthcoming Gameweek by combining form and fixtures.

Additionally, I have also included a ‘clean sheet potential’ table to help assess the Gameweek’s best defensive assets.

Before I take a look at Gameweek 22’s best captaincy targets, let’s have a quick recap on how I use form and fixtures to come to achieve this.

REFINING THE ODDS

For this method, I am going to take the top six most popular captaincy options and rank them 1-6 ranking according to the difficulty of the fixture, which is worked out using goals conceded, big chances conceded and shots in the box (Sib) conceded from the last four games.

I then apply the same ranking to form, looking at total points per game, goals and assists over the last four games. The form table will include Home and Away PPG but these sections will only come into play in terms of the results when the total PPG of 2 players are the same.

The article includes the ‘clean sheet potential’ table, which is worked out with the form and fixtures elements from the captaincy section and then combined with clean sheet odds to give a total ranking based on clean sheet potential. This section will include the top five teams.

Success

What defines a successful captaincy pick according to this method? The ultimate success will be whether the top pick highlighted by the method is the top scorer of the six options from the FFScout Captain poll. A monthly average will also be worked out to find the cumulative points to see if this method or the FFS Captain polls are proving to be more successful.

On a weekly basis, success will be defined as:

  • Explosive = 10+ points
  • Success = 7-9 points
  • Average = 4-6 points
  • Fail = no attacking returns

The articles top pick in Gameweek 21, Olivier Giroud delivered an ‘average’ success of five points according to this method. He was substituted with an injury after 59 minutes, curtailing his potential attacking returns somewhat. Arsenal went onto score two goals after his withdrawal so he may well have picked up further points.

The clean sheet potential table fared much better, the top four in the table (Tottenham, West Ham, Arsenal and Chelsea) all kept clean sheets where fifth placed Manchester United conceded just the one goal against Liverpool, via a James Milner penalty.

Let’s take a look at Gameweek 22’s results:

Form

RankPlayerTotal PPGGoalsAssistsHome PPGAway PPG
1.Ibrahimovic8.7533611.5
2.Sanchez6.75214.59
3.Lukaku6.52185
4.Hazard5.75127.54
5.Costa42074
6.Coutinho3.75110.51.5

Fixtures

RankPlayerFixtureGoals concededBig Chances ConcededGoal attempts in box concededTotal
1.CoutinhoSwansea (H)4123147
2.IbrahimovicStoke (A)953246
3.5HazardHull (H)463141
3.5CostaHull (H)463141
5.LukakuC. Palace (A)263240
6.SanchezBurnley (H)322934

Results

RankPlayerFormFixtureTotal
1.Ibrahimovic123
2.Coutinho617
3.Hazard43.57.5
4.5Lukaku358
4.5Sanchez268
6.Costa53.58.5

Taking form and fixtures into account, Zlatan Ibrahimovic is the most likely to deliver attacking returns, according to this method. The Manchester United forward has the highest PPG out of anyone in the list with an impressive 8.75 from the last four Gameweeks and an equally impressive 11.5 PPG from his last two away games. Couple this with Stoke’s recent poor defensive record, where they have conceded  nine goals in the last four Gameweeks, and this makes the Swede the standout option this week.

Phillipe Coutinho offers this weeks’ differential captain, the Liverpool front man has the best fixture, certainly on paper this week, where he faces a Swansea side who have conceded 12 big chances in the last four Gameweeks and 31 goal attempts in the box in the same time frame. His form statistics are taken from his last available games before injury but still place him bottom of the table. Couple all this with a midweek start against Plymouth, it remains to be seen whether Jurgen Klopp starts the Brazilian from the first whistle.

At first glance this article urges caution captaining Alexis Sanchez this week.  In the overall form table, his home PPG of 4.5 is the second lowest on the list. In addition, the Arsenal man surprisingly sits bottom of the fixture table this week in terms of last four Gameweeks as Burnley have conceded just three goals and an impressively low two big chances over that period. With Olivier Giroud back in training, the Chilean may well find himself back on the wing, which certainly may hamper his attacking potential.

However, it is worth pointing out that the Clarets are a different beast on the road and their last four Gameweek statistics include three ties at Turf Moor. Burnley’s last four away games have seen them concede seven times, concede three big chances and give way 34 goal attempts in the box. That Combined total of 44 would raise the influential Gunner to third place in terms of fixtures and just behind Ibrahimovic as this week’s best captaincy choice.

Clean Sheet Potential Table

RankTeam
1.Chelsea
2.Arsenal
3.Southampton
4.West Brom
5.Liverpool
42 Comments Post a Comment
  1. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 2 months ago

    Thanks again for this. I still think I'll go for Sanchez - having looked at Burnley's last four away form he looks far stronger than if looking at last four - as that has three home games. Burnley are a classic example of a team where home and away really does matter and those 10 goal attempts in the box conceded away to WHU and 13 conceded at Spurs tell the sort of story I like as a Sanchez captainer.

    Will prob captain Ibra in Sky though in case I'm wrong. 🙂

    1. Grimes
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Agreed. Still on Sanchez myself. The contrast between the home and away stats for Burnley make a real difference.

    2. RubberDucky
        7 years, 2 months ago

        I'm going for Hazard as what was the point in holing on for him since the Everton game. Then its get rid!

        1. Js31
          • 9 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          Good point!

        2. Denmother
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          Doing exactly the same! The Only way he stays is to shine on Sunday!

      • MikeyPanther
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Rondón at home to Sunderland is my maverick captaincy choice this week.

      • The Wizard of Ozil
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Going (C)osta myself..purely for the satisfaction if it pays off that so many have ditched him. Alli VC

      • _Freddo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Can the same not be said for Sanchez home and away form?

        He's had much more of his returns away than at home.

    3. Clifford☯
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Cheers.

    4. Dreams
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Cheers yma. Your clean sheet odds are also really helpful.

    5. Pompel
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      thinking the fixture rating sways this a bit wrt Burnley , as you point out at the end. Still San(c)hez

    6. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Sanchez (c) for me:

      - Burnley are terrible away from home as the away stats show.
      - Arsenal are the most clinical team in the league (in terms of shot conversion into goals percentage)
      - Arsenal right up there for shots per game and shots on target per game.
      - Sanchez gets 1 pt more per goal than a striker and has clean sheet and BAPS potential

      Arsenal should put 4 or 5 past Burnley - so cue a 0-0.

    7. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      For the 1st time I would agree with the result.
      Maybe its just my biased mind, but seeing Alexis so down the chart, Hazard so much above Costa, if the later is playing..

      If only I had the confirmation about Costa gametime, I would have cpatained him blindly..

    8. Tomcooper9
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Thanks YMA. Really good articles.

      Been on Sanchez all week but has made me re-consider Zlatan. Might stick with my gut feeling with Sanchez though, that extra point per goal and Burnleys awful away form is too tempting.

    9. OptimusBlack
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      What Happened to Baines ?

      1. Kiwivillan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Doesn't sound good as a new owner

    10. TeddiPonza
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Good2go? Want to save transfer and do Haz and Defoe to Pogba (or similar) and Kane next week for free.

      Grant
      Holebas McAuley Walker
      Alexis Haz Alli Philips
      Giroud Defoe Zlatan
      subs Pick Fletcher Kelly Amat

      1. naanda
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        holes really?

      2. Vlad
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        pufff.. front 7 is 6/7 the same .. only lallana instead of philips in my team.. i will also save transfer this gw.. i think this squad can survive that

    11. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Got 2 FTs and no easy moves to make until I downgrade Hazard next week to free up cash. Which is the better use of a FT?

      A) Capoue to a different 5th mid (someone with GW26/28 blanks in mind)
      B) Benteke to 1 week punt (7.4 or less to spend)
      C) Cedric to Funes Mori (if I wait, I can try and get Baines instead though)

    12. Hand of clod
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Coutinho (or Lallana) is a good shout what with Swansea's dire defensive record. Good options for differential (c.)

    13. My little Bony
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Pogba - > Coutinho for Free? yay or nay

    14. Ranger3
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 2 months ago

      Soton got a good clean sheet chance.. Is Yoshida a certain starter ? Great value, and the they have the best fixtures..

    15. RubberDucky
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Hazard differential for me, its a gamble but Live Life and all that!

      • Chachi
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        I've got a suggestion to refine this method.
        1- I'd keep Form as it is here.
        2- When including fixture, I'd take only the avg of goals received by the team (Home or Away, depending on the case) during the whole season. I think taking only last few matches gives too much randomness (i.e Stoke (A) has been crearly more difficult than Burnley (H) or Hull (H) during the season).
        3- I'd add a third criteria wich would be PPG. I think form is very important but also relies a lot on the fixtures the player have had in the last few matches. PPG says more about consistency.

        1. RedLightning
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          2. I agree - fixtures should be related to venue (home or away) and taken over a greater number of games.

          3. I would add Captains Poll rather than PPG as a 3rd criterion.

      • DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Since I've got back to a decent rank I'm looking to consolidate so Sanchez for me. I feel Stoke will be hard to crack at home so tough for Ibra.

        I have Hazard, Giroud, Lallana, Phillips as well - even Eriksen will be licking his lips. It looks too good to be true this week and probably will be.

      • @FPLStrategist
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        I have Alli, Rose and Eriksen.

        Alli to Coutinho or Lallana or just stick with Alli.

      • meerlight
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        I'm on Hazard(c) at the moment. This suggests that I might be on to something, and at least I've got someone else to blame now 😎

      • Fuchs Mane Kante
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        I got Defoes but going Trollaku.

      • rnrd
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Don't you guys believe that David Silva or Fernando actually are the ones at risk the arrival of Gabriel Jesus?
        I have watched vids of the kid and looks to me like KDB could be back in the 10th central role with Gabril jesus on the left and Silva either dropped or played instead of of Fernando in a less advanced role ? (like he did in the beginning of the season?)

      • Scholes Balls
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        What do you guys think about Costa (C) ?

        1. Yav
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          Bit risky, as he may not start.

      • davewg59
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Heaton or Grant this weekend???

        1. PastaFasul
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          Going Grant over Heaton myself this week.

      • Alexis Nonsense
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Giroud

        He crushes all of the strikers in form, avg goals, avg assists, points pr minute AND avg bonus points...even the big swede

      • _werre_
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        A or B or C
        A) Costa & Lallana
        B) Giroud & Pedro
        C) Giroud & Coutinho

        1. Yav
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 2 months ago

          C

      • gomez123
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        anyone else captaining Kun??

      • Freddie77
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Anyone think Kun will start scoring at some point ?

      • Ped doggy woof
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        I'm having a last minute panic transfer swap of my 3 up front - Which is better for this GW:

        A. Kane Ibra Costa
        B. Giroud Kane Costa
        C. Giroud Ibra Costa

        Cheers people

      • J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 2 months ago

        Good job I added in those pars about Burnley away for the Sanchez bit in the conclusion 😉