Opinion

The Knee Jerk – Gameweek 25

A day notable, in the main, for fortuitous goals and returns.

It began with Alexis Sanchez breaking the hearts of the 75,000 who had jettisoned him early ahead of the Gameweek 26 blank. Notching his first via a gloved hand, the next arrived in stoppage time – his second at the death penalty in the space of four Gameweeks.

With referee Mark Clattenburg reportedly admitting, on review at half-time, that the opening goal was handled, the Sanchez returns will be a particularly bitter pill to swallow for his non-owners.

But arguably Sanchez makes his own luck. Once again he was Arsenal’s bright spark in a performance that was otherwise laboured and lacklustre.

The Chilean could and should have scored earlier and, over his 90 minutes, recorded six efforts on goal.

In his last four Emirates matches, he’s provided a total of 31 efforts – in each of those Gameweeks he’s registered more attempts than any other player. Quite simply, he is untouchable as a source of pure goal threat.

If you don’t own Sanchez, he rarely makes for pleasant viewing.

Similarly, at least among defenders, West Brom’s Gareth McAuley is arguably peerless as a threat to opponents.

Going into the trip to the London Stadium, the centre-back had converted four of his five headers on target into goals – all had direct arrived from corners.

Today he made it five, although it could hardly have been a more fortuitous effort.

Taking up his customary position inside the box for a late Chris Brunt corner, it was adjudged that McAuley got the last touch on Jonny Evans header.

In fairness, the goal was immediately chalked up as his when it arrived via Opta. In real-time his touch seemed indiscernible and yet it was a decision later reviewed and upheld by the Premier League Match Centre.

McAuley had wheeled away to celebrate and, as the last West Brom player to get a touch, the goal was credited as his fifth of the season – again from a corner.

Like Sanchez, McAuley is an asset that, perhaps through endeavour, fortune has favoured this season.

Coming alive at set-pieces, he has delivered reliably when the Baggies defence gives way.

Just as Sanchez’ energy and raw goal threat almost inevitably brings reward by the whistle, so McAuley’s mere presence in the box on the end of deliveries from Matt Phillips or Brunt, has delivered unexpected points; no more unexpected than today’s.

Some Fantasy managers will have benefited from both these lucky charms but, given the statistics in their name to this point, clearly both Sanchez and McAuley have been buying lottery tickets all season. Today their numbers came up.

Mark Mark created the beast. He's now looking to tame it.

2,303 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Phil Dagger ⭐
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Early ideas for this lot guys? Where to use FTs?

    Heaton
    Alonso Coleman Baines Brunt
    Hazard Eriksen Alli Phillips
    Kane Lukaku

    Grant (Ibra*) Chambers De Roon

    2×FT 0.0itb

    1. Sonic Huth
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Wow, our teams are very similar
      I'm saving for now
      Will probably do Kane-Costa

    2. liiusions
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Depends if you want to keep Ibra or not. Maybe just Grant/Heaton->Jaku and save the other?

    3. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Only change I can see is one of the GKs to Jak

      1. Phil Dagger ⭐
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Which one though 😳

        Heaton to Jak gives me 0.8
        Grant to Jak gives me 0.8

        and both could still play in 28 😮

        1. Phil Dagger ⭐
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Grant to Jak *** 0.2

        2. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Have to wait for FA cup results...

          Till then you can look at their rotations, whoever rotates well with Jak stays

          1. Phil Dagger ⭐
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 1 month ago

            hmm...
            May also have to see Jak rises to 4.1 till then

    4. Lecky Legs FC
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Ibra > Costa & save your FT for the next GW after.

      1. Phil Dagger ⭐
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        and them bench who ??

        1. Lecky Legs FC
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Tough call that but I'd say Phillips he's been quiet for a few GW's now and go 4-3-3 for that week.

          1. Phil Dagger ⭐
            • 7 Years
            7 years, 1 month ago

            Cheers

    5. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Wait until GW 28 is a bit clearer after the FA Cup games and take action then as necessary. Very possible all PL teams will qualify for the next round. I would look at bringing in Gylfi or an Everton mid for one of your Spurs boys and a playing keeper

  2. liiusions
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Bottomed,
    Morning DZ, team for next week will be:

    Jaku
    Baines Alonso Brunt
    Hazard(c) Eriksen Siggy Phillips
    Lukaku Barnes
    (Mannone, Ibra, Sanchez, Naughton, Amat)
    1FT 1.5ITB

    To get 11 out, would you:
    a) Ibra->Costa(c)
    b) Sanchez->Mane
    c) Amat->Funes Mori - Also means I can get 8 out in GW28

    1. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      C

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      C looks fine

  3. Lecky Legs FC
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    My squad as it looks right now for GW 26:

    Grant
    Alonso McAuley Holebas
    Ali Hazard Phillips De Roon
    Costa (C) Llorente Ibra (Blank)

    Subs:Pickford,Friend,Love & Sanchez

    2 FT's 0.5 ITB best moves for that GW:

    A) Bench Sanchez & do Ibra > Lukaku

    B) Bench Sanchez & do Ibra > Kane

    C) Bench Ibra & do Sanchez > Mane

    D) Sanchez & Ibra > Lukaku & Mane

    1. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      C or D

      1. Lecky Legs FC
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers Phil

  4. La Roja
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Gabbiadini actually going up by 0.1 today with 25K transfers in.

    Gotta love it

    1. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      At least you know what he will score.

  5. Sonic Huth
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Got Ibra for 11.2 Sell him still?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Depends if you want him for Bournemouth or not

      1. Sonic Huth
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Why not

        1. Holmes
          • 10 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          If you dont want for that game, selling is an option, otherwise keep

    2. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I'm keeping for 27

    3. Kavorka
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      keep him

  6. Holmes
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Last few weeks have been tough time for double/triple Spurs attack! 😳

    1. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Exactly ...
      but I am happy that I got them early

    2. Hurricane Gilbert
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Indeed! I got tripple Spurs just before Sunderland away when Rose got injured. Then they have scored a single goal in 3 fixtures.

  7. Hurricane Gilbert
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    I actually think that the McAuley goal is a cruel and 100% wrong decision.

    For a player to be awarded a goal, there should be a clear touch preceding the goal. The controversial goal that Lukaku scored at home to Boro, with a slight touch on his toe, is way clearer than this situation. Evans clearly scored and it wasn't redirected regardless if it may have touched the strand of McAuley's hair.

    What is the motivation behind rewarding McA with the goal?

    1. zøphar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      just high ownership players getting decisions in their favour

    2. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Money.... Someone had money on it....rigged.

    3. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Highly owned! So majority wins, as always, even if it isnt the right thing... 😉

    4. Hurricane Gilbert
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Sick and tired of unjustice. At least FPL towers shows consistency when it comes to rewarding highly owned players...

    5. Shifty
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Owned by "The Scout"

    6. liiusions
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      It's ridiculous. Even MOTD pundits saying they have no idea how it's Gary Mac's goal. People will say it has nothing to do with FPL but the higher owned players do get more decisions like this

    7. Brap.
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      From former experience, what probably happened is the Opta live analyst called it in the moment as McAuley's goal, possibly getting a bit too clever and basing it on his reaction rather than seeing a touch.

      It will then have been reviewed, probably real time by, then in the "full match analysis" straight after the game ends. If the live analyst really insisted on his opinion that makes it harder to change.

      That's based on my experience as a former Opta analyst (albeit a long time ago when they had 4 people on each live match -- I believe only 2 these days, on for each team).

      I don't know how/why the official premier league match centre confirmed it -- that didn't exist when I was at Opta.

      Basically -- one guy or girl's opinion was not overruled.

      1. Kavorka
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        just too much this season . remember ibra and tadic assists ?

    8. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      If he touched it then it is his goal no matter how slight the touch. if not then no goal. Simple as that.

      1. Kavorka
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        same logic should be applied to those assists.. just saying

        1. Hotdogs for Tea
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Agreed.

  8. ⚽️ Dingo ⚽️
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Is going without Lukaku stupid? I still don't have him and would make it easier to leave him out. He could blank in the next 3

    1. Hurricane Gilbert
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I fear him for the next week

    2. BB-8
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      He's not essential, but very handy to have. Best captaincy option next week imo.

    3. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      He didnt performed well yesterday but MID's defense is decent at home whereas 2 of the next 3 are against shaky defenses plus Spurs who arent doing well at back either

    4. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Get him Dingo

  9. BB-8
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Morning fellas. Cracked the top 1k for the first time ever. Feels good 🙂

    1. Hurricane Gilbert
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Congratulations! Captaincy and some lucky is key, together with a great overall team structure ans good planning of course.

      1. BB-8
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers. Being patient and not going hit crazy have really helped me this season. Been pretty lucky too. 🙂

    2. Ryssel
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Congrats!

      1. BB-8
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Ta

    3. French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      congratz - try to stay there now !

      1. BB-8
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Will be hard but with all chips in place I'm hopeful 🙂

  10. NATSTER
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    How many players do you plan to have for GW28 ? At the moment, I will have just 4 to play and wonder how much I need to put more attention on this issue.

    2 FTs & 0.5 ITB. * have a game on GW28

    *Jaku - Heaton
    *Baines - Walker - Alonso - Holebas - Lenihan
    *Phillips - Eriksen - Alli - de Roon - Sanchez
    *Lukaku - Costa - Ibra

    1. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Wait for FA cup results

      1. NATSTER
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Yep. I just realised how complex it is when I heard that Liverpool game on GW26 could be rescheduled if Leicester need a replay in FA Cup.

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      6-7 are fine, anything more is bonus. You can add a Hull defender and get Sigurdsson/Snodgrass by GW27, that would be enough

      1. NATSTER
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        7 are easily possible with 4 FTs until GW28. Thanks for suggestion.

    3. Kiwivillan
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      One is Holgate but otherwise Baines Brunt Siggy Lukaku. I want Morrison just for next 2 alone

      1. NATSTER
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Good idea. He seems consistently deliver.

    4. BB-8
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I can get 8 without hits. 6-7 would be the average if I had to guess. You'll be fine with the 4 transfers

      1. NATSTER
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks. Decision will be more about who to keep / lose then.

    5. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      I am on 7 now for GW28 with 2 FT burning a hole in my pocket, hoping to get out 9 players with 2 FT for GW 29 to buy back some big hitters - don't want to be carrying too much dross over and above the bench fodder going forward. Need to plan patiently

  11. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Morning all,

    Any ideas for this lot? Currently have 9 possible starters (+ Amat) this week:

    A) Sterling -> x
    B) Amat & Sterling -> Baines & Snod/Phillips (-4)
    C) Amat & Sterling -> Mori & Barkley/Antonio/Lanzini (-4)

    Pickford
    Brunt, Coleman, Nyom, Amat
    Eriksen, Alli, Capoue
    Benteke, Carroll

    Cech, Valencia, Sterling, Sanchez, Ibra
    Bank 0.1m, 1FT

    1. Kavorka
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      have you considered selling sanchez though ?

      1. Jinswick
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        I considered it, but there aren't many expensive players I want for 26-28 given that most will likely blank in 28. Lukaku is the only one, and he is away at Spurs next week, so I have him pencilled in for 28.

        1. Kavorka
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          then sell sterling.
          get lanzini/snod/chadli

  12. Kavorka
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    best midfielder for next 3 weeks ?

    1. BB-8
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Siggy

      1. Kavorka
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        heaton pickford
        coleman baines brunt evans amat
        chadli siggy sanchez de roon eriksen
        kane lukaku benteke

        help please

        1. BB-8
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          How many FT's and money ITB?

          1. Kavorka
            • 8 Years
            7 years, 1 month ago

            1 ft 3.0 ib

            1. BB-8
              • 7 Years
              7 years, 1 month ago

              De Roon to Snoddy/Lanzini/Ant

            2. BB-8
              • 7 Years
              7 years, 1 month ago

              Even Morrison could work

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Chadli/Morrison

    3. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Siggy Chadli Lanzini looks Good

  13. Kiwivillan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Is it time to get rid of Zaha. Very disappointing last 2 weeks.

    1. fedolefan
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      100%. They don't look like scoring and the moment they do, they'll shut up shop.

  14. ScotDougie
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone know when they will announce the dgw for 34 will it be the week before or after the fa cup games ?

  15. fedolefan
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Hoping and praying that I sleep through the matches tomorrow. A Heaton penalty save and CS will be wonderful as will a Leicester CS.

    1. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      No I have Alonso Hazard 😮 and benched Heaton for Grant ...
      Only Leicester CS 😛

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Unlikely but 1-1 with Barton and Willian goal would be nice 😛

    3. NATSTER
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Heaton got penalty save and lot of saves after Costa got a brace would be perfect for me.

    4. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      ... ummm .... no - Gylfi assist and Llorente brace

  16. Phil Dagger ⭐
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Phillips 🙁
    He still has Fixtures man but its getting really Hard to keep Faith now.... Gave me some returns earlier but now only 2s and 3s.....

    1. FFPro
      • 9 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      11 points in 5 games since I bought him

      74 points in the previous 10 games

      story of the season

  17. FFPro
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Looking at doing Pieters -> Hull defender

    Ranocchia 4.5
    Maguire 4.4
    Robertson 4.3

    Which is the best?

    1. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Cheaper one

    2. Kavorka
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      maguire

    3. Jafalad
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Maguire has the goals in his locker so as it's only 0.1 difference over him and Robertson, I'd plump with Maguire.

    4. French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      why you getting rid of pieters?

      1. Kavorka
        • 8 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        spurs chelsea city in next four... doing it right imo

  18. Jinswick
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Quite annoying that Chadli gets hooked early so often. He'd be a decent punt, but going off pre 60 so often rules him out I think.

    1. Phil Dagger ⭐
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      With Evans Back
      Chadli Phillips or Nyom will be benched next game ....Sigh

  19. Phil Dagger ⭐
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Only thing that can Justfy Keeping Triple Spurs for the past few weeks now will be Justified of they Loses to Fulham 😛

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      If they dont lose, my ithcy fingers can drop Alli/Eriksen for Mane 😮

      1. Phil Dagger ⭐
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        I may just do the same being a Liverpool fan
        😉

    2. French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Currently holding Kane + Alli who i both got after their hauls
      Absolute nightmare

  20. Phil Dagger ⭐
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Phillips is slowly becoming like Firmino 🙁

    1. Jafalad
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      He's a lot cheaper though so there's no point fretting about his place in your team. Keep the faith. There's only him and Snodface worth having at that price.

      1. Phil Dagger ⭐
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        only reason he is still in my team

    2. Debauchy
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Yeah but looking at next two fixtures , seems crazy to lose him now

      1. Phil Dagger ⭐
        • 7 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        exactly Debauchy 🙂

    3. French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      he's been my fourth mid for a while and hasn't done anything 🙁
      Who should we transfer him out for the same price bracket ?

  21. Hochoki
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    is it a bad decision to hold sanchez and ibra and play siggy in the XI??

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Nope

  22. CAN'T STOP THE ZLATAN
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Zlatan to costa or Kane?

    1. French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      costa - Kane has done f*c k all for a while now

  23. Captain Vantastic™
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Anyone got a gif or any link to Evans/McAuley goal?

  24. Kavorka
    • 8 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    bench siggy vs chelsea for evans?
    brunt also in team

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      no

    2. French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      NEVER bench the Iceman

    3. Kavorka
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      any chance of bench boost then with pickford, evans, de roon maguire ?

  25. Ryssel
    • 10 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    I'm still 95% going through with my plan, but the sanchez haul did make me doubt....

    Current: 2FT, 0itb
    Foster (boruc)
    Alonso, Baines, Coleman, Mccauley (Robertson)
    Hazard, Phillips, Sanchez* (Capoue, Stanislas)
    Lukaku, Ibra, Defoe*

    The plan:
    Sanchez -> Antonio/Siggy/Lanzini
    Defoe -> Costa

    Alternative is boruc to jaku and defoe to somebody not called Carroll(injured) or Rondon (3 Western already, plus I don't rate him)

    1. French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      why not sell ibra for costa since he's blanking ?

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        GW27

      2. Ryssel
        • 10 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        I prefer ibras fixtures post blanks.

  26. Speédy
    • 7 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    What to do with andy Carroll???,sell or keep????

    1. French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Dilemma - he's so injury prone i'd sell tbh

  27. French Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Head to Head Mini League coming to an end this GW - Who wins ?

    A) Me - 12 pts ahead - Siggy + David Luiz to play

    B) HIm - 12 pts behind - Courtois + Azpi + Cahil + Kolarov + jesus to play

    If i lose i need to pay a substantial wager + call him "Daddy" during an entire week end when we're on a guys trip :/

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Hopefully B 😉

      1. French Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        why hopefully ? i thought you liked me TM ? 🙁

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Might stop you from those bets,

      2. French Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Objectively if Chelsea get a CS vs Burnley that's 18 pts for him
        I doubt city will keep a cs so that's a 2 pointer for Kolarov

        20pts -6 i get for Luiz - so 3 pts ahead for him and then we get Jesus vs Siggy....

        I need to pray for a Burnley goal and a siggy master piece

    2. BB-8
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Ouch.. gonna be painful if he wins. He's the favourite atm 😐

  28. Sz21
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    How many players are you expecting to field in GW 28 atm?
    Do we think most serious players will have 11?

    I am on just about 6 certainties atm but have a few transfers to make so maybe 8-9 max if results go as expected..

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Expecting at least 1 upset in FA Cup.
      Can get 10 for free if I ignore Chelsea etc.

      1. Kiwivillan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Oxford Middleboro maybe

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Not the one I'd want.

          1. Jafalad
            • 14 Years
            7 years, 1 month ago

            Thanks for the FM recommendation. Good shout - cheers 😉

            1. TorresMagic™
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              7 years, 1 month ago

              No worries, top 1M next 🙂

              1. Jafalad
                • 14 Years
                7 years, 1 month ago

                Slow but steady...

        2. Whats the Huth
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          This is the one I'm hoping for. Pickford and chambers would come in for me

    2. Hotdogs for Tea
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      If no FA cup upsets (very likely) then maybe 9 with 2 free transfers to put things right for GW 29

      1. Ruth_NZ
        • 9 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        Very likely? Very wrong. The likelihood is that at least 4 games will go ahead in GW28, maybe 5.

        I blame that pretty but misleading spreadsheet for all this nonsense myself.

        1. Hotdogs for Tea
          • 8 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          Personally I can't see PL teams losing in the FA cup next week, just my opinion.

          I expect to have 9 players (not 9 games ?, 5 games at the most) for GW28, already have 3 Swans, 2 WBA, one Bourn & WHU.

          1. Ruth_NZ
            • 9 Years
            7 years, 1 month ago

            That's because you are looking at the games individually.

            Ever tried to get an 8-fold accumulator up?

            1. Fitzy.
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              7 years, 1 month ago

              What would that one be paying (all the PL teams winning)?

              1. Whats the Huth
                • 8 Years
                7 years, 1 month ago

                Could well be Arsenal. But I think it's likely to be spurs

            2. Hotdogs for Tea
              • 8 Years
              7 years, 1 month ago

              It's not an accumulator though is it and all the games do stand on their own and are not dependent upon each others' results - it is a binary situation except strong teams have been drawn against weaker teams and there are replays if games are drawn. There maybe one or two upsets at most but the odds are stacked against it. In any event I am sure I don't even want a load of Burnley/Sunderland/Boro players even if they lose their FA cup games - it would just be like DGW blindness in reverse

              1. Ruth_NZ
                • 9 Years
                7 years, 1 month ago

                No, an accumulator is exactly comparable actually. 😕

                1. Hotdogs for Tea
                  • 8 Years
                  7 years, 1 month ago

                  Don't be silly, an accumulator bets relies on each game result rolling on to the next - one goes down the entire bet goes down no matter how many others win ... if Burnley loses doesn't mean all the other teams lose and we have a full schedule in GW28 lol. But my point was simply that there is a very good chance all PL teams will win their games, especially in the unique situation whereby no PL teams play each other

                  1. Ruth_NZ
                    • 9 Years
                    7 years, 1 month ago

                    No-one has ever said that all the PL teams will lose. But there isn't a 'very good chance' that 'all PL teams will win their games'. That's the whole point. It only takes one of 6 to lose and there's an extra GW28 game on.

                    1. Hotdogs for Tea
                      • 8 Years
                      7 years, 1 month ago

                      I am pretty sure you are now arguing or defending a different issue from your previous 'accumulator' statement, which was just silly and wrong. No issue with that and I am happy to discuss what ever new angle you want to present. My point, again, is there is a very good chance all PL teams will win on the weekend, if one loses it doesn't dilute the sentiment or suggestion or argument ... if half of then lose I will give it the you. Let's revisit it after next weekend and see who actually looses and gloat accordingly

                      1. soup natsi
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        All PL teams progressing acca odds are 24/1 at the moment. That's not very good chance. A few teams are likely to fail (Leicester to win is 3/2, Spurs 4/5) meaning it is quite likely that there will be more games on GW28 than expected.

                      2. soup natsi
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        If you don't forget to add Burnley like I did, your eightfold acca odds will be 33/1.

                      3. Hotdogs for Tea
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        It's not MY accumulator lol, I simply think most of the PL teams will get through to the next round, if one fails, the others still get through

                      4. Ruth_NZ
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        No, it is you that is wriggling.

                        You: "If no FAC upsets (very likely)"...

                        Me: "Very Likely? Very wrong".

                        You: "I can't see PL teams losing"...

                        Me: "That's because you are looking at games individually. Ever tried to get an accumulator up?"

                        ...and so on. My point all along has been that while all the PL teams are individually favourites, the chances of them all winning are quite small. It only takes one of 6 to lose for an accumulator to fail. And it only takes one of 6 to lose for there to be an extra GW28 game. Very simple really.

                      5. fiveyears
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        Leicester can go out and still have a GW28 blank, can they not?

                        I think its fairly unlikely there'll be more than 4 games on that week personally, maybe Spurs out.

                      6. Hotdogs for Tea
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        'Very likely' does not mean 100% and I agree there may be a few upsets, but I don't think upsets are very likely because 5 of the top six PL teams are still in the hat and the Championship teams have been drawn against them - the other weaker PL teams are not even playing Championship teams .... it's a fluke of the draw that has fallen unkindly for the Championship teams.

                        Put it this way, is it very likely that Arsenal will beat Non League Sutton and Burnley beat NL Lincoln - yes. Is it very likely that Man City will beat Championship side Huddersfield, Man U beat struggling Championship side Blackburn and Chelsea beat struggling Championship side Wolves - yes. Is it very likely that Boro beat mid table L1 Oxford and Spurs beat Fulham - yes. Is it very likely that Leicester beat L1 Millwall - yes.

                        So, my view is that the above outcomes are very likely and that all the PL teams will go through - it's just my view and opinion based upon the way the fixtures have fallen. I am not saying it will happen 100% just that it is very likely and if I had to bet on a result then it would be PL teams qualifying for the next round - not sure how any one can have an issue with this except the most pedantic ?

                      7. Hotdogs for Tea
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        Absoluteky correct, Leicester are perhaps the most at risk of losing if they put out a weak team but play Arsenal (will beat Sutton) GW28 so that game will be off even if Leicester lose to Millwall.

                      8. GreenWindmill
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        Very likely does not mean 100% - agreed. Everyone agrees.

                        Your opening statement was: "If no FA cup upsets (very likely)". This is the same as saying that every match being won by the PL team is 'very likely'. This (as Ruth_NZ points out) is the exact equivalent of an accumulator on all the PL sides winning because a single upset means there haven't been 'no upsets'.

                        You point out that the individual matches are all broadly expected to go the way of the PL team. Without looking specifically at the odds, lets just take a 90% probability for each individual game (this is massively overstating the likelihood in most cases).

                        Chance of a single game being won by the PL team: 0.90 (90%)
                        Chance of 2 games being won by the PL teams: 0.90 * 0.90 = 0.81 (81%)
                        .
                        .
                        .
                        Chance of 8 games being won by the PL teams: 0.90^8 = 0.43 (43%)

                        So even when hugely overstating the likelihood of each individual game being won by the PL team, the odds favour at least one upset occurring. That's why when Cholevas obtained odds for the acca they are very long.

                        There's a chance there will be no upsets but 'very likely' is wrong whichever way you slice it.

                      9. GreenWindmill
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        Please note that the first of my 2 examples are not the chance of 1 or 2 PL teams winning out of 8 fixtures, that's a different stats calculation and I deliberately kept it simple.

                        The last calculation is the only one that matters.

                      10. Hotdogs for Tea
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        My comments are in context to and in relation to planning for GW 28 and not an accumulator, I am looking at each fixture and deciding if I want to pick players who are likely to have an FA cup game and GW28 blank.

                        When I look at each game the strong liklehood is that the PL team will get through to FA cup round 6, maybe need a replay, but get through. This is the basis of my comment that it is very unlikely of an upset. I am not linking the games into an accumulator or suggesting anything like that, I don't mind if one or two PL team lose, but for planning my team I have to make a valued judgement game by game and when I do that I can't see any team I would risk buying their players because of the liklehood of them being knocked out of the FA cup.

                        If I am wrong and for example Leicester or Boro lose it does not change my planning at all, but it would kill an accumulator.

                        There is no way, if I was buying players now, (before the FA cup weekend) that I would buy Spurs, Man U & City, Arsenal/Leicester, Chelsea, Boro or Burnley players, but if others think they are likely to have a GW28 fixture and want to stack their team with them then great.

                        All I am saying is that if there are no FA cup upsets (which is in my opinion very likely because of how the teams have been drawn against each other) I will be able to get 9 players out and carry 2 FT to GW29. This is my opinion and opinions can not be 'very wrong', Leicester or Arsenal can lose and there will be the same number GW28 fixtures.

                        We will see if my opinion has merit after the weekend, how many GW28 fixtures we have, and we can revisit this discussion then.

                      11. GreenWindmill
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        Disregarding everything else, you keep stating that it is very likely there will be no upsets. This is wrong regardless of how the results end up falling. That would be like someone saying Leicester winning the league was likely because it happened.

                        Let's frame it differently.

                        If I roll a die it is unlikely to be a 1.

                        If I roll 10 dice, how likely is it that I don't roll any 1's?

                        Each die individually is likely to not be a 1. However, it is very unlikely that I roll 10 dice and none of them are 1's. It's the same thing here - each individual match is unlikely to be an upset, but for there to be at least one upset is likely.

                        All of this aside, nobody is advising people to transfer players in from any of the teams whose fixtures are at risk because we can't reasonably predict *which* of the games could have an upset, we can just expect that over that many games there will *probably* be at least one upset.

                        As stated though, the actual outcome won't be a worthwhile measure of the probabilities as they stand now.

                      12. Hotdogs for Tea
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        Tell me which Premier League team you think will lose ?

                      13. GreenWindmill
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        "All of this aside, nobody is advising people to transfer players in from any of the teams whose fixtures are at risk because we can't reasonably predict *which* of the games could have an upset, we can just expect that over that many games there will *probably* be at least one upset."

                      14. Hotdogs for Tea
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        Lol, you haven't answered the question

                      15. Ruth_NZ
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        That's because the question is irrelevant. 🙂

                      16. Hotdogs for Tea
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        The question is very relevant, maybe you Ruth would like to advise where you see a likely upset ? I somehow doubt I will get an answer though 😉

                      17. Lawrø
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        *facepalm*

                        This is infuriating

                      18. Ruth_NZ
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        In the FA Cup 5th Round. Which is what I have been saying from the outset. 🙂

                      19. GreenWindmill
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        This is why bookies love people who place accumulators on a large number of 'sure things'.

                        Just because each individual event is likely doesn't mean the combination of all of those events is likely.

                        It's the equivalent of asking me specifically which of the dice I roll in my scenario above will be a 1. I don't know, I just know it's likely there'll be at least one.

                        This is reaching the point where I'm almost hoping you're being deliberately obtuse and this is a massive wind up!

                      20. Ruth_NZ
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        Yeah, GW. I decided to get off the hook and next minute you had grabbed it.

                        Pretty good fishing by Hot Dog I reckon. 🙂

                      21. Ruth_NZ
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        By the way, does anyone know who's on 1st base? I could do with some help with that as well. 🙂

                      22. Hotdogs for Tea
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        I am not betting or deciding which side of dice is coming up lol. This is Fantasy Football and I am planning a GW28 team and I can get 9 players for GW28 on the basis that the PL teams go through, which 'game by game' is very likely - maybe I should have expressed it like that. You won't tell me which PL team you think will get knocked out because it is ... umm ... very unlucky you will be right 😉

                      23. Jersey
                        • 7 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        wow.

                        to start this, you said ..."If no FA cup upsets (very likely) ..."

                        it was simply pointed out to you that "no FA cup upsets" was not "very likely."

                        what is so hard to understand?

                        i want to be your bookie.

                      24. GreenWindmill
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        There is no specific PL team I think will get knocked out, I made that clear and this debate doesn't require me to name a team, I'm just trying to illustrate that there's a very good chance that at least one will lose.

                        I think this has probably reached a natural conclusion as I honestly can't think of another way to frame this that would bring about the breakthrough moment I was hoping for.

                      25. GreenWindmill
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 12 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        I've tried, I really have.

                      26. Hotdogs for Tea
                        • 8 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        I agree with you.

                        My point was in the context of picking a GW28 team

                      27. alexmj
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 9 Years
                        7 years, 1 month ago

                        I agree with Ruth and GW overall points, however the odds on the following "to qualify" rather than "to win" is only 2.86 - 15/8

                        Arsenal, United, City, Spurs, Burnley, Boro, Chelsea

                        This doesn't take account of when any replays would take place though.

    3. NATSTER
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Potentially 8 without hits for me.

    4. Whats the Huth
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      7 as it stands. And that's fine.
      But there'll very likely be another game somewhere. Has to be.

  29. Jafalad
    • 14 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    So Sanchez has one game in the next three and that's against Liverpud.

    Who is thinking of swapping Sanchez and another milf to bring in Hazard and Mane?

    1. Speédy
      • 7 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Sanchez is going for me,bought him at 11.9

      1. Jafalad
        • 14 Years
        7 years, 1 month ago

        That's a no brainer. I'm in the same boat. Wondering what those who bought him in earlier are doing?

        1. q8mans
          • 7 Years
          7 years, 1 month ago

          bought him for 10.9 and I'm waiting for the FA matches before doing my 2 free transfers. Hopefully, his price will not fall more than .1 in eight days.

    2. NATSTER
      • 13 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      He's going for me too. I bought him 11.4 and could sell for 11.6

      If he get blank - liv 0 blank, I believe I will be able to buy him back cheaper.

      Still uncertain if I would buy Hazard, Mane, or Lanzini with eyes for GW28.

    3. Whats the Huth
      • 8 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      Brought him for 11.
      Can sell for 11.4

      But I think he'll be on 11.6 to buy him back for GW29

      So I'll have to suck up the money loss. And look at the points I'll make

  30. The Red Devil
    • 9 Years
    7 years, 1 month ago

    Sanchez to hazard
    Or
    Ibrahimovic to Costa?

    1. French Gooner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      keep both through the blanks depending how much you bought them for

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      7 years, 1 month ago

      So many games for those 4 before GW26