What The Fixtures and Form Say – Review So Far

Each week I use fixture and form data to assess the best captaincy options for the coming Gameweeks from the top six in the FFScout captaincy poll. With the international break nearing its halfway point I thought I’d use the time to take stock of the article series’ potential as a predictor of captaincy hauls.

Before assessing the latest results here is a reminder of what a captaincy success can be defined as:

• Explosive = 10+ points
• Success = 7-9 points
• Average = 4-6 points
• Fail = no attacking returns

Gameweeks 8 to 17

YMA Picks / FFS Capt Poll (no1):

Gw 8 – Costa (9) / Sanchez (5)
Gw 9 – Lukaku (5) / Sanchez (3)
Gw 10 – Sanchez (13) / Sanchez (13)
Gw 11 – Hazard (19) / Aguero (6)
Gw 12 – Lukaku (2) / Aguero (2)
Gw 13 – Firmino (3) / Aguero (6)
Gw 14 – Kane (13) / Kane (13)
Gw 15 – Mane (8) / Sanchez (5)
Gw 16 – Kane (2) / Kane (2)
Gw 17 – Eriksen (2) / Kane (2)

Total YMA: 76 / Total FFS Capt Poll: 57
Avg YMA: 7.6 / Avg FFS Capt Poll: 5.7

Due to increased work commitments, moving office and a period of feeling unwell, there was a gap until Gameweek 21. Now let’s take a look at Gameweeks 21- 29 (with no article for GW 24, again due to a period of illness).

Gameweeks 21 to 29

YMA Picks / FFS Capt Poll (no1):

Gw 21 – Giroud (5) / Sanchez (11)
Gw 22 – Ibrahimovic (2) / Sanchez (8)
Gw 23 – Alli (3) / Sanchez (4)
Gw 25 – Sigurdsson (6) / Sanchez (15)
Gw 26 – Lukaku (6) / Lukaku (6)
Gw 27 – Sterling (6) / Aguero (7)
Gw 28 – Mane (2) / Lukaku (12)
Gw 29 – Lukaku (16) / Lukaku (16)

Total YMA: 46 / Total FFS Capt Poll: 79
Avg YMA: 5.75 / Avg FFS Capt Poll: 9.875

Success So Far

Now Let’s have a look at the combined totals for the 18 articles so far

Total YMA: 122 / Total FFS Capt Poll: 136

Avg YMA: 6.77 / Avg FFS Capt Poll: 7.55

Form v Fixtures

Which is the better indicator of success? Here I look at how the best in form and best according to the fixtures fared each week.

Form Total: 91 / Fixture Total: 81

Form Average: 5.29 / Fixture Average: 4.71

Both Form and Fixtures are divided by 17 articles, as oppose to 18. This is because the top pick for form in Gameweek 25 was Jesus who was injured after the article had come out. Also  Gameweek 27 was centred on Manchester City Double gameweek assets so form was not able to be calculated by factoring in two fixtures. It would have skewed the statistics somewhat in my opinion.

Certainly these stats would suggest that the fixture table has the potential to reward owners more regularly with an ‘explosive’ return, which you could argue is the most important ‘success’ criteria when choosing your captain for the gameweek.

Clean Sheet Potential Table

This article series also includes a look at potential clean sheets to further add to the Gameweek predictions.

This shows that 25 out of 50 potential clean sheets were kept according to the tables, offering a 2.5 clean sheet per Gameweek average. Among the articles 60% correctly predicted that the number one in each week’s table would keep a clean sheet.

Conclusions

• Out of all the articles so far, no player who finished top of the form table has gone on to score the most amount of points from the Top 6 in the FFScout captaincy poll each Gameweek.

• Three players who finished top of the fixture table have gone on to score the most amount of points from the Top 6 in the FFScout captaincy poll each Gameweek.

• According to the statistics so far, there is a 0.58 GW average point advantage when choosing form over fixture as a sole indicator, with form prevailing with 5.29 points to 4.71 points respectively, equalling a 10 or 20 point (with x2) added difference to your overall score if managers had solely picked the top pick from the form table.

• Combining the form and fixture indicators together (YMA picks), results in a 6.77 point average with 122 points in total.

• Following the FFScout captaincy poll leader each week (assuming a FPL manager owns the player) would have returned you 136 points with an average of 7.55.

• However, YMA picks from the first 10 weeks would have averaged the FPL manager with a much higher return (7.6) than the captaincy poll leader (5.7) in the same timeframe.

• Ultimately timing and luck play a big part in captaincy success. So far the statistics may suggest that form offers a bigger point potential overall, whereas the fixture indicator provides the potential for a more explosive return in an individual Gameweek.

There will be another review at the end of the season to see if the trends have changed.