West Bromwich Albion’s Craig Dawson was a force in 2015/16 and was earmarked as the Baggies’ leading defensive asset heading into last season.
He scored four times during the 2015/16 campaign and also registered 10 clean sheets on his way to 124 points in Fantasy Premier League (FPL), handing the West Brom defender a 5.0 price tag for 2016/17.
But Dawson only scored his first goal in Gameweek 26 last term, while fellow defender Gareth McAuley, who started the campaign priced at just 4.5, had netted five by that point.
Dawson did produce a further three goals during the back end of last season, and while McAuley is likely to be the main initial target after tallying 131 points, age and history suggest that his goal tally is unlikely to be repeated, meaning there may be little to choose between the pair.
Indeed, McAuley failed to register a single effort on goal after scoring in Gameweek 26 and scored from six of his seven shots on target over the course of the season – with that incredible strike rate suggesting some regression is inevitable in 2017/18.
Meanwhile, Dawson came on strong and appeared to take on the role of chief goal threat at West Brom’s set-pieces – so often a key weapon in Tony Pulis’ armoury.
We’re expecting that trend to continue over the new season.
- Dawson ended last season with 102 points in FPL – level with Southampton’s Cedric Soares and West Ham United’s Winston Reid, who both cost the same amount. So it’s likely he’ll be handed the same price tag this time around. McAuley and Brunt – providing the latter isn’t reclassified after playing much of his football in midfield – are also likely to come in at a similar price, so other factors should define our thinking heading into 2017/18.
- Dawson has proven his goal threat over three consecutive seasons, registering twice in 2014/15 (when he only made 29 appearances), and four times in each of the past two seasons. His underlying statistics last term were very impressive, producing more shots in the box (18) and headed efforts (13) than any other Baggies defender. Incredibly, from Gameweek 27 onwards, Dawson contributed to 42.9% of West Brom’s goals having ended the season with three over the final 12 matches.
- Tony Pulis sides have historically relied on set-pieces for a high percentage of their goals and last season was no different. They were ranked second for goals from set-pieces – 20 of their 43 goals arrived via this method. Yet the Baggies were second-last for attempts from set-plays and fourth bottom for total corners, despite registering more goals from corners (16) than any other side. West Brom’s proficiency from set-pieces means any improvement in that conversion rate could result in a further boost for the attacking prospects of both Dawson and McAuley.
- While Dawson’s attacking threat comes primarily from his ability at set-plays, he also possessed some assist potential last term, given he played the majority of his football at right-back. He created 21 chances, just three fewer than Chelsea’s Marcos Alonso, for example, suggesting he was a shade unfortunate not to produce a single assist. With greater potency up front, Dawson could well chip in with further attacking points.
- Although Pulis’ side surprisingly only managed to register six shut-outs last term, history and the underlying statistics suggest they should improve upon that number in 2017/18. Only the top eight teams bettered them for both goals against (51) and shots conceded inside the box (297). By comparison, they let in the same number of goals during the 2014/15 campaign (51) and allowed a similar number of close-range efforts (290), yet managed to tally 16 clean sheets.
- Facing only two of last season’s top six over the opening 11 Gameweeks, the Baggies’ early schedule looks tailor-made for investment in their backline. The defence is ranked second top of our Fixture Ticker over that period, with home matches against Bournemouth, Stoke City, West Ham United and Watford, along with trips to Burnley, Brighton and Hove Albion and Huddersfield Town all offering the platform for early returns.
6 years, 9 months agoA bit of research for y'all on early-season clean sheet rates. Not sure if it's conventional wisdom on here, but there's been sporadic chat about cleanies being rarer in the opening game weeks. So I compared GW 1-5 with GW 6-10 CS rates over the past five seasons, to see if there's been any marked difference.
2016-17 clean sheets:
gw1: 2
gw2: 7
gw3: 5
gw4: 3
gw5: 4
(average: 4.2)
gw6: 4
gw7: 5
gw8: 6
gw9: 9
gw10: 7
(average: 6.2)
2015-2016 clean sheets:
gw1: 5
gw2: 7
gw3: 7
gw4: 7
gw5: 7
(average: 6.6)
gw6: 6
gw7: 2
gw8: 3
gw9: 7
gw10: 6
(average: 4.8)
2014-2015 clean sheets:
gw1: 4
gw2: 7
gw3: 6
gw4: 7
gw5: 5
(average: 5.8)
gw6: 6
gw7: 5
gw8: 3
gw9: 6
gw10: 7
(average: 5.4)
2013-2014 clean sheets:
gw1: 7
gw2: 9
gw3: 9
gw4: 7
gw5: 6
(average: 7.6)
gw6: 3
gw7: 5
gw8: 4
gw9: 8
gw10: 10
(average: 6)
2012-2013 clean sheets:
gw1: 8
gw2: 3
gw3: 3
gw4: 7
gw5: 4
(average: 5)
gw6: 2
gw7: 5
gw8: 3
gw9: 4
gw10: 6
(average: 4)
Average cleanies over the five seasons:
GW1-5: 5.84
GW6-10: 5.28
So, over the past five seasons, the opening five game weeks have actually seen more clean sheets than the subsequent five. I'd been assuming the reverse to be true, so this might sway me towards investing a bit more than planned at the back, or even going 4-4-2. Thoughts?