Scout Notes – Pre-Season

Good morning, my dear fellows, I hope this post finds you in rude health and not hiding under your grotty bedsheets due to the fear of thunder, like the Krauts when they hear her Majesty's boys are on their way!

I found this interesting:
3 EPL defenders created more chances than Kyle Walker last season (39); N.Clyne (45), L.Baines (46) and J.Milner (57).
- Opta

For Mr. Clyne that seems good as the other 2 are on some set pieces.

A jolly good chap I know and spiffing gent came up with some good intel BACK IN MAY on the impact of fullbacks. I thought I’d share it with you as a means of me giving back to the poor: ‘If you look at assists, Whoscored have credited 122 players making 1,238 full back appearances (starts) so far this season. Collectively they have played 107,852 minutes PL football, the equivalent of 1,198 90 minute matches. Teams like Chelsea figure lowly in these stats because they haven't used full backs for most of the season.

From these 1,238 appearances fullbacks have provided a grand total of 78 assists and 46 goals, 7 of which are Milner penalties! In fact, take set piece goals out and fullbacks have scored just 25 open play goals all season.

The top 6 teams account for 24 out of the 78 assists which is 30.7% of the assists from 30% of the teams, so the top6 team's fullbacks do very slightly better than average, even accounting for Chelsea's lack of full backs (take Chelsea out and the other 5 produce the 31.7% of assists from 25% of the teams, Chelsea have 0 fullback assists).

Looking at each team and their fullback's assist achievements we get (remember this is a player’s achievements when playing at fullback, it does not count achievements playing in a different position):

ManU (7 assists, 1 goal, 1 goal open play from 70 appearances)

Valencia - 3
Blind - 2
Young - 1
Shaw - 1
Darmian - 0
Rojo - 0
Bailly - 0

LFC (6 assists, 7 goals, 0 goals open play from 72 appearances)

Milner - 3
Clyne - 2
Moreno - 1
TAA - 0

Spurs (6 assists, 2 goals, 2 goals open play from 48 appearances)

Walker - 3
Rose - 1
Trippier - 1
Wimmer - 1
Davies - 0
Vertonghen - 0

Arsenal (4 assists, 0 goals, 0 goals open play from 60 appearances)

Monreal - 2
Bellerin - 1
Gibbs - 1
Jenkinson - 0
Paulista - 0
Debuchy - 0

ManC (1 assist, 2 goals, 2 goals open play from 60 appearances)

Sagna - 1
Kolarov - 0
Zabaletta - 0
Clichy - 0
Fernandinho - 0
Fernando - 0
Navas - 0

Chelsea (0 assists, 0 goals, 0 goals open play from 14 appearances)

Alonso - 0
Pedro - 0
Ivanovic - 0
Azpilicueta - 0

If you compare, say, LFCto their top6 rivals - even if you exclude Milner's 7 penalty goals - they have 6 assists from open play, though no goals. ManU have 7 assists and 1 goals, Spurs 6 assists and 2 goals. So LFC are only 1 or 2 goals/assists worse off.

The only fullbacks that have done appreciably better from other teams are:

Coleman: 4 goals, 3 assists
Bertrand: 2 goals, 4 assists
Adam Smith: 1 goals, 5 assists
Daniels: 4 goals, 3 assists, though 3 goals from free kicks
Fuchs: 2 goals, 4 assists, though 1 goal and 1 assist is from free kicks
Holebas: 2 goals, 4 assists, though 2 assists are from free kicks
Dawson: 4 goals, 0 assists, though 3 goals from free kicks

Daniels and Smith are two that have made the biggest impact and they are both from Bournemouth. Take out set piece impact (Milner has 7 set piece goals) and their collective output is 2 goals and 10 assists (Francis and Frazer are also credited 1 assists apiece from fullback). LFC's fullbacks have 6 assists, so at very best they might be 2 goals and 4 assists better.

Contrast that to a striker. LFC strikers (Firmino, Sturridge and Origi) are credited with 11 goals (6,1,4 respectively) and 8 assists (5,1,2 respectively) from 36 appearances. Compare that to:

- Chelsea: 20 goals and 7 assists from 34 appearances
- Spurs: 23 goals and 7 assists from 37 appearances
- ManU: 19 goals and 6 assists from 37 appearances
- ManC: 24 goals and 5 assists from 37 appearances
- Arsenal: 19 goals and 8 assists from 34 appearances
- Everton: 25 goals and 7 assists from 42 appearances

By that measure LFC are 8 to 14 (average 11) goals worse off and 0 to 3 (average 1.3) assists better off. Overall that's about 10 goals worse off from striker position than out top 7 rivals, just from the position of generally 1 striker (only Everton have played 2 strikers more than twice).’

So, gentlemen, what I gather from this little yarn is that a Lukaku, Kane and Jesus/Aquero front 3 would be lovely, with a back 3 of Smith, Milner and Daniels being a nice point earner at the back. But as I regularly state, I am eccentric, so you may think these are more rumblings of a wealthy aristocrat with more ideas than sense.

Farewell and may all your babies have bald heads.