Members

The Numbers Game – Southampton

Next up in our summer series of members’ articles, offering in-depth team-by-team analysis are Southampton. A side that carry extra significance ahead of the new campaign given their exceptionally kind early fixtures.

To get underway, we’ll analyse performance at a team level and attempt to spot trends or improvements. We then delve into the player data, analysing the key individuals as we scour for potential targets ahead of next month’s Gameweek 1 deadline.

In addition, we’ll also focus on any specific periods of interest brought about by tactical changes or breakout Fantasy performances – in this case we’ll focus on the Saints’ home/away displays, investigating a trend that saw them score just 17 goals in front of their own supporters.

Southampton finished in sixth spot under Ronald Koeman back in 2015/16 – a total of 63 points was just three points behind Manchester City in fourth. But the Dutchman’s decision to move to Everton proved detrimental to their prospects, with replacement Claude Puel struggling to maintain those standards.

Despite claiming eight place, Southampton bagged just 46 points and found the net on 41 occasions – a tally that bettered only the bottom five and well behind the 59 strikes under Koeman.

Paul Is certain he won't make the same mistakes next season. Follow them on Twitter

4,269 Comments Post a Comment
  1. foreverton
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Riedewald or Schlupp?

    1. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Schlupp

    2. Agger
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Schlupp. He's already nailed in my team.

    3. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      is Schlupp nailed over PVA?

    4. Arteta
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Jeff

  2. FER FUSCH AKE
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    the million dollar question

    alli or kdb?????

    1. faver
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      both. and kdb

      1. faver
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        or*

    2. UnitedFan
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Alli

    3. rnrd
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      both are essentials imo. It depends what other cover you have for City and spurs
      But if you don't have Kane , Alli over KDB

      1. UnitedFan
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Forget cover, choose the better pick.

        1. FER FUSCH AKE
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          I have Kane, dele alli then???

          1. UnitedFan
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 8 months ago

            Yes. I've got both Kane and Eriksen as Spurs attackers.

  3. dorrian123
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    finally settled and happy with this team?

    forster
    Williams lindelof tripper
    alli zaha coutinho willian
    jesus lukaku gayle

    subs :nordeldt hegazi lofus-cheek lowton

    thoughts please

  4. Manumana
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Best 6.0 mill mid. Not phillips

    1. Jonesfromthere
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Ince or Ritchie for me.

    2. faver
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      chadli/stanislas for me

    3. SWANCK
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Ritchie

    4. ryacoo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Chadli when he goes to Swansea to replace Siggy 😀

  5. Jonesfromthere
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Just finished watching the Utd highlights. Is it me or is Rashford playing out of his skin at the moment? Looks Utd's best player even played out wide. Has me tempted and can't imagine he'd be dropped the way he's played throughout pre-season.

    Bottomed.

  6. Waxys
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    According to my pack the following players have a perfect 10/10 rating. For the first 3 weeks.

    Kane, Salah, Aguero, Fabregas.

    That is all

    1. bojack
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      I don't see Fabregas being igneous.

      1. Waxys
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Most people don't but the pack has convinced me.

      2. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Solid as s rock.

    2. Agger
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      It's a shame Salah won't play much because he's 100% guaranteed to be rested for the Champions league qualifiers seeing as they're more important.

      1. Waxys
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Salah is a guranteed starter hence the 10/10 rating

  7. Agger
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    What's the best rank you've had after GW1?

    1. faver
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      3k

      1. Agger
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Nice!

    2. DD
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      I was 66th 2 seasons ago after GW1 and then it went massively downhill after that.

  8. 007 [RoboKlopp]
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    1) Still wondering about Alonso, do we really need him? Or waiting until Chelsea fixture is good?

    2) Please help me choose:
    A. Alonso, Mkhitaryan, Milivojevic
    B. Monreal, Sane, 6.0 mid
    C. Monreal, Coutinho, 5.5 mid

    Thx you.

    1. Jonesfromthere
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Fixtures are terrible, can't see many clean sheets. Not as essential as ffs makes out.

    2. SWANCK
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Chelsea are fixture proof.. up until CL begins

  9. rnrd
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    what do you guys prefer?

    A- 4.5 def + Willian 3-4-3
    B- Alonso + 4.5 mid 4-3-3

    1. SWANCK
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Alonso

  10. Waxys
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Pep says De Bruyne has an attitude problem at times.

    Odd way to praise the man of the match pep.

    1. Jonesfromthere
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      KDB out guys.

      1. Waxys
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Maybe not but I just found it stnrage Pep would say that about him

    2. rnrd
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      PEP (on KDB) “It is difficult to find a player with his quality, this is a guy who fights, passes, does many things.”

    3. Twisted Saltergater
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Fake news.

      1. Waxys
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Excuse me?

        "Since I arrived I've seen Kevin and when he's in the right mood, optimistic and happy, he makes a performance like this," said Guardiola.

        Hopefully he'll be stable in his mood. If he stays positive like the last three weeks, he's able to do what he wants."

  11. RohanVaswani
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Dunk or Lowe???

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Add Suttner to the mix.

  12. Rupert The Horse
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    You're tearing me apart Lisa!

    1. Waxys
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      +1 as no one else gets my room quotes lol

      1. Rupert The Horse
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Oh hai Mark.
        I didn't realise until your hahaha what funny story Mark.

  13. Prison Mike
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Best option?

    A) 343 with Suttner & Francis/4.5 rotating:

    Foster Elliot
    Trippier Cedric Suttner Francis/4.5 4.0
    KDB Cout/Salah Willian Zaha (Carroll)
    Kane Lukaku Austin

    B) 433

    Foster Elliot
    Valencia Trippier Cedric Daniels (4.0)
    KDB Cout/Salah Willian (Carroll & RLC)
    Kane Lukaku Austin

  14. Son and Spurs
    Ludo
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 8 months ago

    Heung-Min Son broke his arm on international duty, and is expected to miss the start of the season. I think that could have a real fantasy impact, though perhaps not in the most obvious way.

    In the second half of last season, from GW20 onwards, Son started twelve matches. Of those, Tottenham played four at the back on ten occasions, and played three at the back twice. In the seven matches which Son didn't start, Spurs played three at the back in every game. In the two games Son started with a back three, Spurs were without either Kane or Eriksen.

    In other words, Spurs played Son alongside Kane, Eriksen and Alli in a 4-2-3-1, but dropped one of that attacking four (Son if they were all fit) for another centre back in their 3-4-2-1. With Son out, they may continue with three at the back for the start of the season - they used the shape in the first half of their friendly with Roma, so its clearly still in Pochettino's thoughts. Here's a comparison of how Spurs and their key fantasy assets fared in each shape in the league last season.

    Four at the back:
    Tottenham - 26 Games, 52 Goals (2.0 per game), 18 Goals Conceded (0.69 per game), 11 Clean Sheets (0.42 per game)
    Harry Kane - 19 Starts, 14 Goals (0.74 per game), 2 Assists (0.11 per game), 37% Goal Involvement
    Dele Alli - 24 Starts, 10 Goals (0.42 per game), 5 Assists (0.21 per game), 31% Goal Involvement
    Christian Eriksen - 25 Starts, 4 Goals (0.16 per game), 9 Assists (0.36 per game), 25% Goal Involvement
    Full Backs - 52 Starts, 3 Goals (0.06 per game), 9 Assists (0.17 per game), 23% Goal Involvement

    Three at the back:
    Tottenham - 12 Games, 34 Goals (2.8 per game), 8 Goals Conceded (0.67 per game), 6 Clean Sheets (0.50 per game)
    Harry Kane - 10 Starts, 15 Goals (1.5 per game), 5 Assists (0.50 per game), 67% Goal Involvement
    Dele Alli - 11 Starts, 8 Goals (0.73 per game), 4 Assists (0.36 per game), 36% Goal Involvement
    Christian Eriksen - 11 Starts, 4 Goals (0.36 per game), 5 Assists (0.45 per game), 32% Goal Involvement
    Wing Backs - 24 Starts, 0 Goals (0.00 per game), 8 Assists (0.33 per game), 24% Goal Involvement

    These numbers suggest that whilst the move to three at the back had little discernible impact on Tottenham's defensive displays, it greatly increased their goal threat. Most significantly, and ridiculously, Harry Kane more than doubled his output. Alli and Eriksen stats also markedly improved, as those three players more or less monopolised Tottenham's goals between them. There was also a modest increase in the performance of Tottenham's wing backs with this formation, though surprisingly, it was much less notable than the increases made by Kane, Alli and Eriksen.

    1. Rupert The Horse
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Post it again in the new article Ludo.

    2. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Son has a big impact on the 'big boys' for sure, you can actually see it as he basically steals space from both Alli & Kane 😆

    3. QPRUTD
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Nice analysis Ludo.
      But when you say
      "Most significantly, and ridiculously, Harry Kane more than doubled his output"
      I believe this include the successive hatricks by Kane (7 goals in 2 games), and this has contributed significantly to the statistic.

      However, these were pretty much dead rubber games, and there isn't much possibility that it happens again.

      1. Ludo
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        The Leicester game (4 goals) was with three at the back, but the Hull game (3 goals) was with four.

        If you discount those two matches, he scored 11 in 9 with three at the back, and 11 in 18 with four.

        1. QPRUTD
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          Thanks, so the logic still holds true then.
          Great 🙂

    4. Every Dog Has Its Day
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Excellent stuff, thank you!

    5. Clump
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Great post, thanks.

    6. Ludo
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Had a look at whether or not Tottenham had easier fixtures in the matches they played with three at the back, for the sake of completeness.

      In the 26 fixtures Spurs played a four man defence, the other eighteen teams in the league averaged 1.45 Goals per game, and 1.41 Goals Conceded per game.

      In the 12 fixtures they played three at the back, the other eighteen teams in the league averaged 1.27 Goals per game, and 1.34 Goals Conceded per game.

      That suggests that, in fact, these were tougher fixtures, particularly from an attacking perspective.

    7. Econ Man
        6 years, 8 months ago

        So I just checked your stats for statistical significance, and low and behold: two-sided t-tests (5 % confidence level, under assumption of Poisson distribution in goal-scoring) suggest the difference in goal-scoring rate, both for Tottenham and the players themselves, is not statistically significant. Generally when we see patterns like this, there is not enough evidence to conclude our hypothesis is true.

        1. Ludo
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          Interesting!

      • Ludo
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        I haven't included fantasy assists in the original post, but they do change things somewhat for Alli and Eriksen. The comparisons should run like this:

        Four at the back:
        Dele Alli - 24 Starts, 10 Goals (0.42 per game), 7 Assists (0.29 per game), 35% Goal Involvement
        Christian Eriksen - 25 Starts, 4 Goals (0.16 per game), 15 Assists (0.60 per game), 37% Goal Involvement

        Three at the back:
        Dele Alli - 11 Starts, 8 Goals (0.73 per game), 4 Assists (0.36 per game), 36% Goal Involvement
        Christian Eriksen - 11 Starts, 4 Goals (0.36 per game), 5 Assists (0.45 per game), 32% Goal Involvement

        I've also had a look at some underlying statistics:

        Four at the back:
        Harry Kane - 51 Minutes Per Shot On Target, 94 Minutes Per Big Chance, 62 Minutes Per Chance Created
        Dele Alli - 118 Minutes Per Shot On Target, 176 Minutes Per Big Chance, 54 Minutes Per Chance Created
        Christian Eriksen - 81 Minutes Per Shot On Target, 545 Minutes Per Big Chance, 28 Minutes Per Chance Created

        Three at the back:
        Harry Kane - 34 Minutes Per Shot On Target, 85 Minutes Per Big Chance, 56 Minutes Per Chance Created
        Dele Alli - 52 Minutes Per Shot On Target, 93 Minutes Per Big Chance, 71 Minutes Per Chance Created
        Christian Eriksen - 89 Minutes Per Shot On Target, 983 Minutes Per Big Chance, 28 Minutes Per Chance Created

        That suggests to me that Eriksen's fantasy potential is not significantly impacted by the switch to three at the back, but Kane and Alli (particularly) were greater goal threats with that formation.

        1. Judders
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          If anything your data shows that while Spurs are going to probably be playing 3 at the back Kane is staying in my team. 1.5 goals pg is crazy even if some were in dead matches. Eriksen looks to achieve much better with a 4 so will avoid. As for Spurs defence I think I will wait to see how they adjust to Wembley. Great statistics and analysis though. Really well done!

      • Pieterke30
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Great post

        Indeed, the most dangerous Spurs players get even more dangerous when they play with wing backs

    8. Tommyg
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Isn't Charlie Austin being a little over looked?

      If you take into account his three seasons in the prem he has scored 5.4 points per game.

      Proven goal scorer and scorching hot fixtures for the first 6 weeks at 6.5. any takers?

      1. Jonesfromthere
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Not nailed.

      2. UnitedFan
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Just need to monitor if he's nailed or not.

      3. Make Arrows Green Again
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Me till the little pea rolls into his groove.

      4. noquarternt
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        If he's nailed, he'll be in a lot of teams.

        We don't know if he's nailed.

      5. Netley Lucas
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        He's in plenty of sides on here. He's currently ahead of Gabby on every metric despite the suggestion by some that Gabby is better suited to Saints' pressing style.

    9. Numb
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Has KDB just scored in a friendly or something> He seems to be in every team suddenly whereas he wasn't before

      1. ryacoo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        2 assists last night but yeah, that's the reason.

      2. nonprophet
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Two assist, close to a goal a few times.

      3. Boom Xhaka-Laca
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        He ripped apart Real Madrid

    10. nonprophet
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Kdb isn't that good people. Cash better spent elsewhere

      1. Waxys
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Big mistake people.

        Trust me on this the pack has all the proof you need for why Aguero is essential this season

      2. Waxys
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Why did I read that as Aguero?

    11. rnrd
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Do you guys think FPL sould introduce a +1pt for pre-assists?

      1. Waxys
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        No

      2. UnitedFan
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        No. 🙂

      3. The Man Pastore
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        no

      4. Rover
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Only in the case of own-goals.

        1. Rover
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          And when the fouled player takes a set piece

          1. Rover
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 8 months ago

            Basically, two from a team will always get points. Either 4/5/6 + 3 for a typical goal. Or 4/5/6 + 1 for a self-taken penalty. Or 3 + 1 for an own-goal.

            1. SeanStaz89
              • 9 Years
              6 years, 8 months ago

              Absolutely not.

    12. Wild Rover
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      A) Aguero, Pogba/Mkhi, RLC
      or
      B) Austin, KDB, Ramsey

      B) a no brainer? Hate not having Aguero 😐

    13. Waxys
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Dembele has a 8.5/10 rating in my lack he is expected to start while son is injured great value at £5m

      That is the last piece of critical info I'll be dropping from my pack. If you want the rest buy the pack has all he top 59 strategies as well and a rotation planner tailored for your team

      1. Make Arrows Green Again
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Your lack knows no bounds.

      2. Wild Rover
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Pack it in

      3. SWANCK
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        My pack of biscuits has 12 at the back, solid.

      4. tets mcgee (Bachmann an Rob…
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        where can i buy the pack?

      5. The Quad
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        can you stop

    14. footyfootyfootball
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Upgrade:

      Capoue > Zaha
      or
      Jesus > Aguero

      Starting 11

      1. Boom Xhaka-Laca
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Capoue > Zaha

    15. FER FUSCH AKE
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      RMT guys

      Forster
      Alonso trippier lindelof
      wilian kdb cout taroll
      Kane kaku chicha

      myhill Morgan millivojevic haidara

      1. footyfootyfootball
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Is Lindelof likely to be a starter?

    16. Boom Xhaka-Laca
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      A) Cedric Capoue KDB
      B) Alonso Redmond Zaha

      1. footyfootyfootball
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        A.

        Less balanced but KDB will be big points

    17. FPL ZB
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      If one poster is regularly spamming the page, can you flag their profile, or do you just have to do all the individual posts?

      Is there a pack I can read on this?

    18. Slartibartfast
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Which combo returns more points over the first ~6GWs? Not much in it according to RMT, so looking for some human input too.

      a) Alonso + 4.5mid, play 4-3-3

      b) Daniels + Redmond, play 3-4-3

    19. unlethal
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      RMT please, taken into consideration some of the community's opinions on this:

      Fabianski
      Trippier - Cedric - Daniels
      KDB - Coutinho - Willian - Phillips
      Kane - Lukaku - Chicharito

      Elliot - Carroll - Mee - Long

      Previously had Eriksen and Cedric instead of KDB and Cedric, should I have made this move or stuck with what I had before?

      1. Waxys
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Coutinho is rated at 6.5/10 whole Salah is 10/10

        1. unlethal
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 8 months ago

          I this based on the pack?

          1. unlethal
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 8 months ago

            *Is

    20. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Please pick one:

      A. Sane with no Liverpool cover
      B. Salah with no City cover
      C. Coutinho with no City cover

      Thx you.

      1. Waxys
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        But get De Bruyne

    21. 007 [RoboKlopp]
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Is Matt Phillips nailed with regular start and nice fixtures? (For 4th mid)

      Or Tom Caroll is enough for 4th mid?

      Thx

    22. willl
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 8 months ago

      Is Francis nailed on? And where will he play?
      Is the expected Bournemouth back four something like this:
      Smith - Cook - Ake - Daniels?

      1. Fatboy_Slim
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        for a month or so yes instead of smith i think...Adam Smith still injured and hasnt played preseason

      2. Netley Lucas
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 8 months ago

        Francis & Smith will duke it out. Last season Francis played RB when Ake started with Smith being pushed to RW or the the bench. Not sure Francis has it in him to play 38 @RB these days so maybe a bit of rotation depending on fixtures.