Scout Notes – Gameweek 3 – Saturday

Romelu Lukaku derails the captaincy strategy of millions at Old Trafford, but other key Manchester United assets maintain early season progress, while Pep Guardiola benches Sergio Aguero to howls of Fantasy anguish.

Elsewhere, Newcastle United’s season is finally up and running, West Ham and Crystal Palace continue to despair and clean sheets are the order of the day for three sides with tempting budget options.

Here are the notes from Saturday’s six-match schedule.

Lukaku’s spot of bother

If it’s too good to be true, so they say, it’s not true.

That, in a nutshell, is how many managers view the Fantasy life and work of one Mr Romelu Lukaku – a striker seemingly always on the verge of some industrial-grade trolling.

Industrial is certainly the word for the Man United striker’s current eye-watering ownership base of 58.5%.

And a mighty 1.7 million of them captained the Belgian yesterday, only for four points to be wiped from his score in the time it took Leicester City keeper Kasper Schmeichel to save his second-half penalty.

Fantasy football throws up all manner of battles within battles, one of which has been the Gameweek 3 captaincy tussle between Lukaku versus Harry Kane.

The pair have been the top two armband choices for all three Gameweeks of this fledging season, with Lukaku emphatically winning the argument by 19 points to two over the first two matches.

The Spurs striker, owned by 29.4% and with some 741,000+ managers handing him the captaincy, now has a big chance to haul some of that deficit back against Burnley today.

Whatever happens, Lukaku’s days as United’s penalty taker could be numbered. He’s now taken 15 spot-kicks and missed five of them over his career.

More pertinently, he’s missed three of his last five.

United remain a forceful and balanced side, with Lukaku’s strength and pace a key component. He had a worse day in Gameweek 2 and came away with a goal and six points, so one penalty miss and zero points could well be an aberration rather than the start of a grandiose fall from grace.

His side’s fixtures certainly suggest the former, with Stoke City and Southampton away and visits from Everton and Crystal Palace likely to give him plenty of opportunities to right yesterday’s wrongs.

The troll hunters may disagree, but sanity so far remains in place – a mere 3,000 or so managers have knee-jerked Lukaku out of their teams thus far this Gameweek.

Business as usual everywhere else

While Lukaku was busy breaking hearts, Paul Pogba was just busy.

No midfielder in the Gameweek so far can match the Frenchman’s six attempts at a rate of one every 15 minutes. Unfortunately for him and his 34.8% of owners, none were on target, and he came away with just the three points as a result.

By contrast, team-mate and FPL rival Henrikh Mkhitaryan (18.9%) had a poor match by his own high standards, but still created four chances and produced the assist, from a corner, for United’s opening goal.

That took him to five assists for the season and a place alongside Pogba at the top of the midfield tree, with 26 points.

The Armenian was involved in five goals – four goals and an assist – in the entirety of last season. He’s reached that mark this year in three matches.

Owning one of the United pair currently looks near “essential”. Owning both – if possible – wouldn’t exactly hurt either. But opting for centre-back Phil Jones is certainly the value route into Jose Mourinho’s defence.

Eric Bailly and Antonio Valencia have scored more points from the Red Devils’ three straight clean sheets, but Jones (5.1) is at least 1.0 cheaper than either of them.

For the outlay, you got an all-action display that involved eight clearances, blocks and interceptions (CBI), seven recoveries and two out of three aerial duels won against Leicester. All of which earned Jones the press plaudits and his first bonus point of the season.

United’s kindly schedule stiffens after the second international break in early October, but Jones still has at least more matches to continue offering performance, value and points.

Pep sacrifices Sergio

Man City boss Pep Guardiola just about kept everybody happy when he fielded both Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus for the first two matches of the season.

The move, however, didn’t seem to suit either one of them. Aguero scored in Gameweek 1 but otherwise struggled for chances, while Jesus bossed the attempts but failed to create.

Something had to give, and it was the Argentine’s starting place for the trip to Bournemouth.

Some have long held the opinion that Jesus is Pep’s player. Aguero has to be shoe-horned into the Spaniard’s side, whereas the Brazilian is a natural fit.

But nobody seemed to see Aguero’s benching coming. His ownership stayed static coming into the Gameweek, while Jesus lost 119,000 managers.

A goal and maximum bonus was the reward for their lack of faith.

Aguero was handed 24 minutes of action and promptly got busy firing in two attempts (Jesus managed three in 82 minutes) while also finding time to have a ‘misunderstanding’ with a Bournemouth steward.

Nobody doubts Aguero’s passion or drive, but his days as City’s nailed-on striker are gone, making his 11.5 price tag a hefty investment in potentially limited pitch-time.

Big sales look inevitable, and the exodus has started early, with more than 14,000 already taking the plunge.

De Bruyne in the midfield mire

Only Aguero’s team-mate Kevin De Bruyne has suffered more sales this weekend, and it’s easy to see why.

The Belgian’s premium price of 9.9 – down from 10.0 overnight – has so far produced a measly eight points from three matches.

He’s as close to “untouchable” as any player in a Guardiola side, but his role in the team severely restricts his attacking potential.

Guardiola’s decision to move to a back four at Bournemouth kept the Belgian far deeper than he and his 22.1% ownership would have liked, and he produced precisely zero attempts as a result.

For context, Fernandinho managed two, one of which was in the area. The Brazilian also had four penalty box touches to De Bruyne’s three, while the Belgian is yet to have a single shot in the area this season.

He was sold by more than 221,000 last week and by the time the Premier League returns following the international break, De Bruyne looks set to be a major scapegoat in FPL teams far and wide.

Part of the reason for that also stems from the productivity of cheaper City options in midfield.

David Silva (8.1) set up Jesus’ goal yesterday – his second assist of the season – while Raheem Sterling (7.9) made it back-to-back goals with his last-gasp winner.

The latter’s involvement in the chaotic celebrations that followed led to a red card which will keep him out of the Gameweek 4 home match with former club Liverpool, however.

One midfielder with equally poor prospects as De Bruyne is Leroy Sane.

A return to wingers over wing-backs left the German back on the bench again and he now has just four points to show from a stop-start, and decidedly limited, opening to the season.

Sterling’s one-match ban might well offer Sane the chance of a second start of the campaign, but his points potential remains little and not often enough.

Daniels to the rescue – for some

Benched by 313,000, sold by 150,000, Bournemouth’s Charlie Daniels is still the seventh most popular defender in FPL and he rewarded those who kept the faith with a superb opening goal against City.

That produced a very tidy seven-point haul and coach Eddie Howe’s move to a wing-back system – if permanent – can enhance Daniels’ already strong attacking appeal.

The downside is the Cherries’ continued form – they’re yet to earn a single point and Daniels’ goal was their first of the season – and a set of upcoming fixtures that are mixed, to put it nicely.

Bournemouth will host Leicester and Brighton over the next five Gameweeks, but must also travel to Arsenal, Everton and Spurs.

Daniels looks worth the risk. The same cannot be said of winger Ryan Fraser, who was benched after starting 18 of the previous 22 Premier League outings.

Natural wingers are starting to look like endangered species this season as the wing-back supremacy gathers pace, making Daniels – and perhaps Adam Smith – considerably more attractive than their midfield counterparts out wide.

Toon triumph and Hammer blow

For every winner, there has to be a loser.

And so it was at St James’ Park, where Newcastle bagged their first victory of the season to consign West Ham to a third straight defeat.

Rafa Benitez’s side has budget options aplenty, not least striker Joselu (5.5), who scored on his first start for the club after catching the eye as a substitute in Gameweek 2 when he had four shots on target – the most of any forward.

His credentials as a budget third striker are now clear to see, particularly with Swansea City, Stoke City and Brighton up next for the Geordies.

Midfielders Matt Ritchie (5.9) and Christian Atsu (5.0) also impressed and provided assists to further their own low-cost claims.

Newcastle also provided fine returns from two 4.0 defensive options in keeper Rob Elliot and Chancel Mbemba.

But both come with caveats.

Elliot, who was benched by more managers (819,000) than any other player in the Gamweek, could be replaced if Benitez hits the transfer market. And Mbemba is only in the team because of injuries to other key personnel; it’s fair to say that he hasn’t been favoured by Benitez in the past.

As for West Ham, about the only positive at the moment is the goal threat of Javier Hernandez.

The team were toothless, but the Mexican still managed two shots, both on target, although that was cold comfort for the 511,000 managers who drafted him in for the Gameweek.

Huddersfield, Swansea and Brighton over the next six matches offer him the chance to bounce back.

But 10 goals shipped in the first three does not bode well for the team as a whole.

Swans going swimmingly but van Aanholt flounders

Considerably more resilient are Swansea, who notched their second clean sheet of the season in a 2-0 win at Crystal Palace.

Coach Paul Clement was another to switch to wing-backs and the immediate beneficiary was Kyle Naughton, who brought in 12 points from a shut-out, an assist and maximum bonus.

The Swans’ next ten fixtures contain only two major tests – Spurs and Arsenal both away – and investment in a well-drilled backline in which only Alfie Mawson and Martin Olsson come in at over 4.5 looks tempting.

The side has also finally started scoring, with budget options Tammy Abraham (5.5) and Jordan Ayew (5.0) finding the net in south London.

The former, in particular, looks to be another strong contender for our third striker slot.

He’s started all three matches this season and the continued noise around Fernando Llorente leaving the club could well mean many more starts to come.

The same cannot be said for Palace wing-back Patrick van Aanholt.

The 5.5-priced Dutchman has been a luxury some 3.1% of managers have considered worth paying for on the back of his proven attacking threat – he recorded 11 goals and five assists in a poor Sunderland side over the preceding two seasons.

But a point a match in Palace’s woeful start to this campaign – three losses, no clean sheets, no goals – make van Aanholt an expensive flop who was sacrificed at half-time by coach Frank de Boer yesterday.

Trips to Burnley and both Manchester sides, together with a visit from Chelsea, await over the next five Gameweeks.

The likelihood of van Aanholt remaining in many FPL sides during that run are beginning to look decidedly slim.

Two defences still standing tall…

The budget delights of Huddersfield Town’s rearguard continue apace.

Three consecutive clean sheets have firmed up the appeal of keeper Jonas Lossl (4.5) and Zanka (4.6) who, with 7.9% ownership, is the side’s most popular defender.

Tommy Smith, who missed shut-out points in the first match by an agonising four minutes, is the most expensive pick of a cut-price crop at 5.0, but he underlined his value against Southampton with two bonus points.

Up front, Steve Mounie (6.1 and 5.0%) frustrated with a second successive blank.

But his owners might be wise to hold. He was busy against the Saints, firing in five shots, and now faces West Ham’s obliging defence before a home match with Leicester City.

As for Southampton, they’re confirming what we all expected when Mauricio Pellegrino took the reins at St Mary’s – defensive solidity, attacking frigidity.

Two clean sheets from three has boosted the appeal of their backline, but they’ve only scored in one match, hitting three against a ten-man West Ham side that coughed up two penalties.

New signing Wesley Hoedt is yet to come into the defence, which complicates matters for those on Maya Yoshida (2.3%) and Jack Stephens (0.9%).

As things stand, Cedric (5.0) looks the safest all-round option – fellow full-back Ryan Bertrand costs 0.5 more – as the Saints continue with a generous schedule that involves only one match, the visit of Man United, of real substance all the way through to Gameweek 12.

…While Watford bend but don’t break

Disciplinary basket case Jose Holebas, who racked up 15 bookings last season, managed two more in midweek to earn himself a suspension for the visit of Brighton yesterday.

Team-mate Miguel Britos, then channelled his inner Holebas by getting himself sent off for a reckless challenge on the Seagulls’ Anthony Knockaert.

The ten men of Watford then fought their way to a goalless draw across nearly 80 minutes of toil, pointing to the increased resilience in their ranks since the appointment of Marco Silva.

That made it back-to-back clean sheets for the Hornets, but any temptation to invest in their bargain basement backline should be tempered by a look at their schedule.

Watford play four of their next six away from home, and the two Vicarage Road visitors are Man City and Arsenal.

That could also derail the Richarlison bandwagon. The Brazilian tyro’s ownership leapt from virtually nothing to 195,000+ last week on the back of a goal and an assist from his first two matches.

He still managed three shots – more than any team-mate – in Saturday’s stalemate, but considerably tougher tests than Brighton at home await.

Indeed, Knockaert – earning a first start of the season for Brighton – was arguably the star turn on show at Vicarage Road to provide the first suggestion that he could be a fourth midfield solution to explore.