Opinion

The Digest – Gameweek 4

The curtain comes down on Gameweek 4 with the Digest round-up, capturing the player, the team and the topic of discussion to stand out from the previous ten fixtures.

We focus our attentions on Spurs all-conquering wing-back and the much-improved Magpies, before assessing the continued armband dominance of two-big hitters up front.

The Player

After four rounds of fixtures, Spurs’ Ben Davies leads the pack at the top of the Fantasy Premier League standings.

The Welshman’s 14-point return away to Everton – his second such haul in the opening four Gameweeks – helped him clamber to the summit on 32 points, one point clear of Manchester United midfielder Paul Pogba.

Davies has wasted no time in reminding us of the explosive potential offered by raiding wing-backs in the Premier League.

Unleashed down the left, he’s produced more crosses and successful crosses than any player in the top-flight.

Indeed, Davies has even emerged as Spurs chief creator – a total of 13 key passes is more than any team-mate and bettered only by Man United’s Henrikh Mkhitaryan and Arsenal’s Mesut Ozil, with 15 apiece.

Over 196,000 FPL managers have already acquired the Wales international since the weekend – making him the number one transfer target ahead of Gameweek 5.

A glance at the upcoming schedule suggests that Davies’ momentum will continue to build – the north London outfit offer home clashes with Swansea and Bournemouth and trips to West Ham and Huddersfield in the next four rounds of fixtures.

With new arrival Serge Aurier set to challenge Kieran Trippier for the role on the right of Spurs’ defence, Davies is easily the most secure and potentially profitable route into a rearguard that conceded the fewest goals of any side last season.

The general assumption was that Davies started the campaign as second to Danny Rose for the role on the left. But the Welshman’s recent displays indicate that the wantaway Rose may well have to settle for a back-up role – if he ever finds a way out of the treatment room.

The Team

In retrospect, it seems that Jonjo Shelvey’s moment of Gameweek 1 madness clouded many a Fantasy manager’s assessment of Newcastle United.

Let’s not forget that, before the midfielder received his marching orders for kicking out at Dele Alli, Rafa Benitez’s men were all square at 0-0 with Spurs early in the second-half at St James’ Park.

Twelve minutes later, the Magpies were 2-0 down and unable to contain Spurs’ one-man advantage.

Yet since then, Newcastle have conceded just one goal in three fixtures, racking up back-to-back shut-outs against West Ham and Swansea City.

Just three sides have conceded fewer goals than the Tyneside team’s total of three against, while they also rank fourth most resilient when it comes to shots allowed inside the box after four rounds of fixtures.

At 4.0, stopper Rob Elliot could barely be more enticing as a fire and forget option between the posts. He’s earned one save point in three of his first four outings and even picked up a single bonus point against the Swans – despite only making three saves.

Essentially, Elliot is benefitting from his defensive team-mates’ inability to complete 30 passes per appearance and therefore boost their bonus point system prospects; we saw similar with Burnley’s Tom Heaton last year.

Further up the field, Matt Ritchie’s back-to-back assists could also bring the Scotland international into contention for our five-man midfields as Benitez’s side prepare for a strong run of home matches.

Between now and Gameweek 16, five of their upcoming six at St James’ – STO CPL BOU WAT LEI – look good for Fantasy returns.

While set-pieces and spot-kicks strengthen Ritchie’s appeal, Christian Atsu is another to monitor. Yes, he dropped to the bench last Sunday for the first time this season, but there’s a felling his omission was simply down to long-haul flights after international duties.

At 5.0 to Ritchie’s 5.9, Atsu is one of the few viable attacking options in the midfield budget bracket.

Yet that pair may well be surpassed by the value on offer from new arrival Joselu up front. Handed a debut off the bench in Gameweek 2, he’s since registered nine shots on target – joint-top among all players with big-hitters Harry Kane, Romelu Lukaku and Mohamed Salah.

Having found the net on his home debut already, the 0.4%-owned Spaniard now has the opportunity to take advantage of that favourable schedule and emerge as our budget frontman of choice.

The Talking Point

Four Gameweeks into the season, Lukaku and Kane continue to dominate the captaincy plans of FPL managers.

In each of those rounds of fixtures, the Belgian was the top armband choice, with Kane claiming runners-up spot – last week, the United man was captained by 37% and 11% opted for Kane.

Such is the confidence in this pair, no other player gained more than 4% captaincy backing for Gameweek 4.

Lukaku may sit fourth in the forward standings and Kane thirteenth, yet for FPL managers, they remain the undisputed top choices when it comes to selecting the captaincy.

Arguably, such is their stranglehold, going without both means you run the risk of a slide down the rankings should they deliver.

If you break the bank for both, you have the opportunity to cover at least 50% of their captain haul and remain in touch.

With those two dominating, it leaves the selection of our third forward all the more crucial.

Looking at the top of the FPL standings, Liverpool’s Roberto Firmino is the second most popular candidate, yet he’s produced half the number of shots in the box than midfield team-mate Salah.

The goals have dried up from Wayne Rooney and Javier Hernandez, while Jamie Vardy will struggle to extend a 50% goal conversion rate that’s seen him score with all three of his shots on target.

Meanwhile, Marcus Rashford and Danny Welbeck have excelled as mid-price options, but their pitch-time continues to remain in question. And neither player’s cause is helped by reverse out of position roles.

Typically, it’s only really the heavyweights Alvaro Morata and Gabriel Jesus that perhaps warrant attention. But slotting one of that pair alongside Kane and Lukaku is surely a stretch too far for most.

That consigns them to the role of compelling, but perhaps risky, alternatives to the big two, and leaves us still pondering the route for our third striker.

If Firmino can flourish in the coming Gameweeks, he will surely put the debate to bed. However, should he falter – as he has been known to do in the past – then his 30.9% ownership will begin eyeing the latest mid-price or budget alternative to offer a hint of form.

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2,002 Comments Post a Comment
  1. jamie1972
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    With Pogba out for a bit, Fellaini worth a shout as rotating 4th/5th mid?

    It's him or Can

    (rotating with Richarlison)

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I dunno would I get him in FPL... as likely to get a card than a goal (no stats to back this up just opinion!)

      Jose does love him tho!

      1. jamie1972
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Wouldn't go near him if not for the Pogba loss

    2. Respect My Authoritah
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I meaaan..maybe? It's worth a punt I guess. Could be glorious

    3. FrankieTheGent
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Herrera will get game time too

  2. Ajax Hamsterdam
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Any update on pogba ? Thanks

    1. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      last I saw was Mourinho saying it could be a few weeks, saw nothing concrete yet

      1. Ajax Hamsterdam
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks

  3. Dr Robotnik
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Seriously considering wildcarding this. Would You?

    Heaton / Elliot

    Alonso / Bertrand / Dawson / Ward / Suttner

    Eriksen / Pogba / Atsu / Carrol / RLC

    Kane / Lukaku / Firming

    Main reasons being injuries and lack of balance. I can't straight swap Pogba with anyone I actually want, and feel there is better value in other players now I have 4 weeks information.

    1. the snazzy viking
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Personally I'd wait for the next international break to wildcard and plan your transfers up until then

      Maybe just take Pogba out for Ramsey or Silva and play Elliot over Heaton - decent next 2 fixtures for Newcastle

    2. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      No. I'd probably play Elliot, downgrade Heaton to a 4.0 and get Mhki or maybe even Siggy for Pogba.

    3. kennethrhcp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I think its grand! a few hits will sort ya... your 3rd, 4th & 5th mid combo is a worry but you have Alonso who is playing like a mid to balance that

      1. Dr Robotnik
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Cheers. It's a tricky one as I have played around with it and feel I can get a really decent side if I wildcard now. I may use a bit of patience for a couple of weeks. Good suggestion with downgrading Heaton. I wanted a straight swap to Butland, but if it's only for 2 weeks I think I may just take a -4 and upgrade Pogba.

        Thanks for the ideas guys.

    4. FrankieTheGent
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Atsu might just have been rested. Sanches impact seemed to be a more advanced Carrol. All defenders play. RLC maybe the only move. Pogba to Ritchie and rlc to one of the trending mids ?

    5. Jersey
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      no

  4. AdamJ91
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Richalison > Choupo-Moting or save?

    Rest of my team is below;

    Foster
    Bertrand - Luiz - Stephens
    Eriksen - Mkhi - Brady - Richarlison
    Lukaku - Kane - Firmino

    Elliot - RLC - Suttner - Mariappa

    1FT, 0.4 ITB

    1. Collie01
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I'd save. Don't see much point switching budget midfielders too often.

    2. MikeRyko
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Stoke / Burnley rotation is great right up until the new year at least.

      Assuming no injuries tonight, I would do it, bank the £0.5m and upgrade either 4th defender or 5th mid so you have flexibility between 433 & 343

    3. Jersey
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      save.

      pointless transfer . . . chasing last week's points.

  5. pol
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Need to get rid of gabbi before price drop, already have salah and lukaku

    A- willian>jese and gabbi>Vardy for -4
    B- willian>choupo and gabbi>Firminio for -4
    C- willian >siggy/mahrez and gabbi>abraham for -4
    D- gabbi > chicha
    E- gabbi > welbeck

    1. KUNingas
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Really dont like Choupo as an option but still B

    2. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      B

  6. J0E
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Brighton goalkeeper latest.

    As was mentioned on last night’s Scoutcast Brighton back up keeper Tim Krul is highly unlikely to replace number one Mat Ryan anytime soon.

    Here's the latest from the local press on him.

    “Ryan played an important role with a flying save to foil ex-Albion schoolboy Gareth Barry in the first half, when the score was 0-0, and to deny sub James Morrison a second goal in the dying moments as West Brom mounted a late rally from 3-0 down.”

    http://www.theargus.co.uk/sport/15526027.Ryan_remains_behind_to_celebrate_historic_Albion_win_with_fans/?ref=ar

    Staying behind longer than anyone else to sign autographs would have also gone down well with the powers that be at the Amex.

    1. Respect My Authoritah
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Although I don't disagree with the article, is anything the press say on the matter relevant?

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Its the detail around his performance - basically they are the only ones that will go into that level of detail.

        Also yes to some extent as this journalist in particular is pretty much embedded in the club. If we started to see negative stories about Ryan then that's a good indicator that he is out of favour. If we see positive stories then it indicates he's popular at the club. If he puts in good performances and the fans like him that is more ticks in his box.

        1. Respect My Authoritah
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          *gets coat*

          Cheers Jonty, useful.

    2. A.T
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Yep signing those autographs has cemented his place in the side 😆

      1. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        The awesome saves will always come second to autograph signing 😉

    3. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      He's looked very unconvincing in the games I've seen

    4. Mark
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 17 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I still think Krul is easily the most likely 4.0 to play this season barring injury, aside from Elliot, of course.

      I just don't think Brighton will use a loan slot paying his wages for him to be third choice. They could have picked up a free agent for that. Hughton wants experience to back up Ryan and any slips or a big defeat and Krul will be close to starts.

      I'm not sure why there's a concern, though. We get 4.0 defenders who don't play and think nothing of it and injuries/suspensions in defence are far more likely. Just as we'd react when forced to turn to a 4.0 defender, we'd do the same if Elliot is injured.

      Or alternatively, play one match without a keeper - arguably, it's the position with the lowest points potential.

      For me, the 0.5 vs the chance of an injury to Elliot in the next 6-8 weeks is well worth it.

      1. Respect My Authoritah
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        More likely than Myhill?

        1. Respect My Authoritah
          • 10 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          Ah, "barring injury". *gets more coats*

          1. J0E
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            You're the coat king of this post 🙂

      2. J0E
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        I think most first choice goalkeepers need competition to keep them on their toes. If Krul's presence does that for Ryan then its job done.

        Currently though Ryan - who during the summer was their record buy - is just as vulnerable or safe as a number of goalkeepers if they have poor performances. He's not especially unsafe.

        Mignolet is a keeper I'd say is unsafe for example.

  7. KUNingas
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    A) Willian -> Antonio

    Cedric, Daniels, Monreal
    Salah, Mkhi, Antonio, RLC

    B) Willian + Long -> Ritchie + Bavies (-4)

    Cedric, Daniels, Bavies, Monreal
    Salah, Mhki, Ritchie

  8. Karan14
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Any ideas?
    0.4 ITB & 1 FT.

    Foster
    Bertrand - Stephens - Jones
    Eriksen - Salah - Mkhi - Ritchie
    Kane - Lukaku - Mounie

    (Elliot - Carroll - Suttner - Long)

    A) Bertrand ➡ Davies

    B) Stephens & Mounie ➡ Davies & Joselu/Tammy (-4)

    Appreciate your thoughts!

    1. KUNingas
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Why do you ditch Bertrand? Have I missed something

      1. Karan14
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Next 3 don't look good for clean sheets (cry, MUN, stk).

        And Davies is amazing value at 5.7 playing wingback with some set peices.

        1. Collie01
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          Southampon have great fixtures up to GW12 (Man aside). Bertrand is nailed. In a few weeks, it's possible Jones, Davies and Stephens won't be playing/will be rotated.

    2. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. Effendi007
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    4. Sidekick_08
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

  9. Sims
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    A) Mkhi , Hunemier (3-4-3)

    B) Kolasniac, Gross (4-3-3)

    other defs: Alonso, Davies, Jones, Naughton

    Other mids: Salah, Alli, Moting, Carrol

    1. Karan14
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. KUNingas
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    3. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    4. davies
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

  10. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Made a few changes,RMWCT
    Foster(Elliot)
    Davies Alonso Kolasinac Jones (Mbemba)
    Alli Mkhi Choupo-Moting (Carroll) (Chalobah)
    Morata Kane Firmino

  11. Jimbo-Jones
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Anyone considering Hazard?

    1. COLLIN QUANER
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Few weeks maybe

    2. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Not this week.

  12. The case for Matt Ritchie
    HurriKane
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Case for Matt Ritchie

    Is there any better midfeild option below 6m than Matt Ritchie ?

    - On Set Peices
    - On Pens
    - Nailed on
    - Strong fixtures- Faces these 6 teams in next 7 (exluding LIV clash)

    STK bha sot CRY bur BOU

    - Had a decent debut pl season with 4 goals and 8 assists in 2015-16 season.

    I think he's much safer option unlike unproven pl newcomers like mooy richarlison gross choupo-motin etc

    1. Karan14
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Have him since the start and keeping for the next 2-3 weeks atleast.
      He's on 3 YCs already so could miss a game soon.

      1. HurriKane
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        yh good point. hopefully he keep his act clean.

    2. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Bought him in WC.

    3. Respect My Authoritah
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I like him. Don't think there is a better option below 6.0, but there are perhaps better value options

      1. HurriKane
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        yh he seems to tick all the boxes. hope he could build on his back to back assists

    4. KUNingas
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I think he is best option under 6

    5. J0E
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I have him and agree.

      Although keep an eye on those bookings - they are mounting up.

    6. zon
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Had him since the start of the season. I think it's really frustrating to watch him play as he goes hiding from time to time and is overly aggressive in his defensive play, but as long as he keeps those assists coming he's not going anywhere from my team.

    7. willl
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Had him before WC, will probably get him after he gets a ban.

      1. HurriKane
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        How many games he misses if he gets ban ?

        i dont think it would be a problem if he miss 1 game . someone like T.Caroll who has good fixtures could slot in

    8. Bojan ye gud ting
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I prefer Gross in short term. BHAs next two fixtures look good after difficult start and he's been involved in 100% of BHA goals so far!

    9. Pirlø's Pen
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Hmmm suppose you are right. Can't say that about many options even under 8m.

    10. Mick J
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      But is Matt Ritchie at £6.0 a better choice than Joselu at £5.5? It seems like too much Newcastle to have both.

      1. Mouldmaster
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        This is exactly my thinking.

        A) Ritchie and Firmino, or
        B) Salah and Joselu.

        Tough call but I might choose two strikers rather than two midfielders 😉

    11. FC Lackless [BALEGIUM]
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A great option up to wildcard .... at least

    12. BLDS25
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Currently have Firmino (8.5) and Cleverley (5.0) but I want to get Ritchie in.. worth swapping Firmino for Rooney?

      1. The Mighty One
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        No to Rooney. Yuck. Keep Firm.

    13. SuperMario
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Totally agree. Have him since the start and will keep until the WC at least and then reassess

    14. shearer9
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I'm sceptical having been persuaded by 'the case for Brady' last week, but I can't fault your logic. Should've backed my own team!

  13. davies
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Thoughts on this lot from next week onwards?

    Foster Elliot
    Davies Jones Cedric Mee Mbemba
    Eriksen Salah Mkhi RLC Carroll
    Kane Jesus Vardy

    1. KUNingas
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Like that Vardy pick

      1. davies
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Prefer him to Firmino

  14. stevenzhang
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Keen to get your views on a),b) or c) below?

    a) Firmino+Ritchie+Mendy
    b) Firmino+D.Silva+Mee
    c) Morata+Ritchie+Maguire

    Planning to play 433

    Rest of the team
    Elliot(Foster)
    Davies,Cedric,Jones (Mbemba)
    Eriksen,Mki, (Chalobah,Carroll)
    Kane,Lukaku

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A or C

      1. KUNingas
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        This

  15. Fpl Richie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Any news on RLC or Mbemba injuries? Need one to play ideally

  16. Harper (No more Penandes)
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Any of these worth a hit?

    Jesus to Kane
    Lukaku to Kane
    Stephens to Bavies

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Third

    2. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      third one. See how long Jesus plays tonight

  17. RealSocialDads
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Play one:
    1. Elliot (STO)
    2.Forster (cpa)

    Also - best under 6.3m option for the next three weeks?

    A. Gross (bou, NEW, ars)
    B. Choupo-Moting (new, CHE, SOU)
    C. Jese (new, CHE, SOU)
    D. Richarlison (MCI, swa, wba)
    E. Ritchie (STO, bha, LIV)

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Forster Ritchie

    2. MikeRyko
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Elliot - at home and Palace may have that new manager bounce

      Ritchie out of those options

  18. HD7
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    On WC:

    If I get Miki for Pogba I will have to go with Clarke in defence instead of Cedric... does it mean play Foster or double Newcastle defence with Elliot and Clarke?

    Thanks

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Get Naughton.

      1. HD7
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        But isnt their defence very bad as I hear?

        1. VFORVANDETA
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          I think after Spurs they will get at least 2 or 3 CS with that fixtures.

          1. HD7
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            How about his game, is he creative?

  19. Legohair
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Need help here!
    My team is
    Foster
    Kola-Danilo-Jones-Cedric
    Salah-Eriksen-Tadic
    Kane(c)-Lukaku-Gabbi

    1FT. 0.4 in the bank

    A. Danilo->Davies
    B. Gabbi >7.4 forward
    C. Gabbi&Tadic->Firmino&5.3 mid
    D. Safe
    E. Something else

  20. Lord Bendtner, TGSTEL
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Stones, Bertrand, Forster -> Davies, Kolasinac, Foster (-4) NOW

    Or

    Bertrand -> Davies NOW
    And Stones, Forster -> Foster, Kolasinac NEXT WEEK

    Back 7 looks like this
    Forster, Elliot
    Stones, Bertrand, Daniels, Löwe, Long

    0.4m ITB
    WC not played

    1. RealSocialDads
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Either way you're losing 4 points so just look at who has the best fixture this week

      1. Lord Bendtner, TGSTEL
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        No, have two FT, so will be free if I just do one of the transfers now

      2. Lord Bendtner, TGSTEL
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        But, kolasinac bad fixture this week. So yes, should wait with that transfer until next week really, thx

        1. L S P
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          kola could have attacking returns tho

  21. KUNingas
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Willian + Long -> Ritchie + Bavies (-4) would leave me this team for next week.

    DDG
    Bavies, Monreal, Cedric, Daniels
    Salah, Mhki, Ritchie
    Kane, Lukaku, Firmino

    Pull the trigger?

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Like it.

    2. RealSocialDads
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Wait til after tonight

  22. G-Whizz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    First off I would like to thank one of our regular posters Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud☭ for allowing me to use his stats in this article.

    Hopefully this will go some way to helping the Community decide on CS players and possible captain options by combining our very own Doosra's fixture stats with the CS odds from here: https://www.fantasybet.com/blog/bookies-advantage/

    Before we have a look at last week, here's a bit of background info on his stats.
    "I have devised a system, which calculates a rating for any team based entirely on their results, position, goals for and goals against. It does not include clean sheets, as I have not yet found a reliable common source that records these in a HOME and away format.
    So this system does not differ between the attacking and defensive qualities, perceived or otherwise, of any team, other than that expressed by their position, raw results, and goals scored, and by goals conceded.
    It will show an indication of whether a team is expected to perform better at HOME or away. The larger the figure, the more reliable is the home indicator, whereas a minus figure indicates that a team performs better away."

    So let's delve in and have a look at Doosra's stats for GW4:

    ARS BOU 428
    BOU ars -428
    BRI WBA 116
    BUR CPL 122
    CHE lei 279
    CPL bur -122
    EVE TOT -62
    HUD whm -53
    LEI CHE -279
    LIV mci -117
    MCY LIV 117
    MUN stk 232
    NEW swa 113
    SOT WAT 267
    STK MUN -232
    SWA NEW -113
    TOT eve 62
    WAT sou -267
    WBA bri -116
    WHM HUD 53

    The thing that immediately jumped out at me was the Arsenal fixture. If you look down the table you will find it has the highest number of the week. This suggested to me that this was the "easiest" fixture of the week, the nearest challenger to that is Chelsea away to Leicester (279) followed closely by Southampton at home to Watford (267). This would indicate to bring Arsenal players to the fore, and the only one I have is Kolasinac. Let's keep an eye on Chelsea and Southampton too as many of you have players from those teams too.

    Team Best clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet
    Man Utd 2.05 49%
    Southampton 2.2 45%
    West Ham 2.38 42%
    Brighton 2.55 39%
    Arsenal 2.55 39%
    Chelsea 2.57 39%
    Burnley 2.6 38%
    Tottenham 2.8 36%
    West Brom 2.88 35%
    Swansea 2.88 35%
    Crystal Palace 3.2 31%
    Man City 3.5 29%
    Newcastle 3.6 28%
    Everton 4.2 24%
    Huddersfield 4.5 22%
    Leicester 5 20%
    Watford 5.3 19%
    Stoke 6.2 16%
    Liverpool 6.7 15%
    Bournemouth 11 9%

    39% chance given for Arsenal to keep a CS was 5th highest and Bournemouth 9% ranked bottom. This started me thinking of Kolasina(c) crazy as it may have seemed at the time, the stats were pointing that way for me. If I had any Arsenal attacker I would be seriously thinking of giving them the armband instead. The result panned out perfectly for me with Kola assisting and keeping that CS returned 22 points. Welbeck bagged a brace and an assist, Lacazette a goal and Ramsey an assist too.

    Chelsea at 279 DS (Doosra Stat) and the same CS chance as Arsenal at (39%) away to Leicester did leak a goal but got by eventually 1-2 Vardy on the scoresheet along with Kanté and Morata. Azpilicueta and Rudiger provided the assists.
    Southampton 267DS and with a CS chance of a massive 45% let the figures down by losing 0-2 to Watford. Kiko Femenía and Cleverley provided the assists for Janmaat and Doucouré. Southampton will have to improve their scoring as they have failed to score in 3 of their 4 games so far this season. Maybe this is telling us to beware of anything under 300DS?
    Having said that, look at the Brighton game. Possibly an unexpected victory in the bookies mind, but Brighton had a DS of 116 and WBA -116 so that would suggest a small victory, not even the most ardent Brighton supporter (anyone know any?) could have predicted a 3-1 though and they were pretty high up in the Bookies table to keep a clean sheet.

    Hopefully this will give people more of an insight of what his numbers mean and how we can read them and use them to our advantage. When I first saw them I had a vague idea but didn't really understand to be honest. Well they say hindsight is a wonderful thing, so let's have a look going forward...

    ARS che -374
    BOU BRI 186
    BRI bou -186
    BUR liv -614
    CHE ARS 374
    CPL SOU -191
    EVE mun -249
    HUD LEI 120
    LEI hud -120
    LIV BUR 614
    MCY wat 445
    MUN EVE 249
    NEW STK 180
    SOT cpl 191
    STK new -180
    SWA tot -705
    TOT SWA 705
    WAT MCI -445
    WBA WHM 139
    WHM wba -139

    Well the first thing that leaps off the page is a couple of massive numbers, Liverpool 614DS only to be outdone by Spurs with a whopping 705DS. Let's take a look at what the market says:

    Team Clean sheet odds Implied chance of a clean sheet
    Man Utd 1.8 56%
    Tottenham 1.9 53%
    Liverpool 1.9 53%
    Man City 2.1 48%
    West Brom 2.62 38%
    Bournemouth 2.7 37%
    Southampton 2.8 36%
    Newcastle 2.75 36%
    Leicester 3.1 32%
    Chelsea 3.1 32%
    Crystal Palace 3.3 30%
    West Ham 3.5 29%
    Stoke 3.5 29%
    Huddersfield 3.6 28%
    Brighton 3.75 27%
    Arsenal 6 17%
    Everton 8 13%
    Watford 10 10%
    Burnley 10 10%
    Swansea 12 8%

    Bookies have gone with Man United (249DS) to be the favourites to get a CS this week ahead of Tottenham (705DS) and Liverpool (614DS) respectively. From what we've seen the week before, anything under DS300 I'm not going to count as a surefire thing so to me that would mean that United seem to be maybe a little over priced.
    Where the DS rating doesn't support that same favourtism I'm going to concentrate on both our favourites which each have been given a 53% clean sheet chance.
    Of the two, Tottenham at 705DS would seem to edge it, and Swansea are just too poor at defending for words http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/public-stats-tables/view/20816/ the 8% CS chance would seem to back that up too. That's lower than Bournemouth of the previous week! If you have any Tottenham assets this may be the week they shine both in attack and defence. Same could easily be said of Liverpool, although some may advise caution as they will be without Mané, but I don't see that as the case. Coutinho should be more than able to step up and be ready to deliver against a Burnley at Anfield.
    Man City (445DS) come in third and the Bookies give them a 48% chance of a clean sheet. If you have their assets too it would look like (barring rotation) you're in for a nice GW as they take on Watford. Everton (-249) and Arsenal (-374) 4th and 5th from bottom on the clean sheet table look to be having a hard time at the back this week...

    So who YOU going to pick as your captain this week?

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Kane.

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Something tells me I don't think you'll be alone on that decision lol

    2. Eton Rifles
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Morata

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Please tell him to take it easy on my Kola! lol

    3. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      (K)ane

    4. Respect My Authoritah
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Is there a tl;dr for this?

      Blimey.

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Sorry noob question, what is tl;dr?

        1. Sigurd's Son
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          Stands for "To long, didn't read"

          Aka asking for a short summary.

          1. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            Thanks Sig, the short version is look at the numbers and choose your captain from there, just that some people don't understand the DS when it's posted.

    5. Lord Bendtner, TGSTEL
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Kane, and thx for this!

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        You're welcome! Think I might join you there...

    6. Harper (No more Penandes)
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Might go Eriksen

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Ahead of Lukaku and Firmino? I would have said brave, but the stats say you're laughing all the way to the... Whatever it is that people laugh their way to 😆

        1. Harper (No more Penandes)
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          Um, the bank?

          1. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            Yeah but that's £££ related and I wanted something FF related. How about points bank? 😆

    7. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Slight but crucial misquote, up above:

      I have devised a system, which is on a separate sheet, and which calculates a rating for any team based entirely on their results, position, goals for and goals against. It does not include clean sheets, as I have not yet found a reliable common source that records these in a HOME and away format.

      So this system does not differ between the attacking and defensive qualities, perceived or otherwise, of any team, other than that expressed by their position, raw results, and goals scored, and by goals conceded.

      A NEW ADDITION is the last column on that sheet(Ratings Generator), which give an indication of whether a team is expected to perform better at HOME or away. The larger the figure, the more reliable is the home indicator, whereas a minus figure indicates that a team performs better away. See West Ham, which of course, I expect to change this Season!

      (H-a=X) ... ... ... BASE
      H vs a ... ... ... GW 0
      134 Arsenal 132
      194 Bournemouth 210
      162 Brighton 174
      194 Burnley 214
      221 Chelsea 244
      -11 Crystal Palace -8
      290 Everton 317
      94 Huddersfield Town 103
      212 Leicester 227
      174 Liverpool 174
      -0 Manchester City -4
      30 Manchester United 30
      39 Newcastle United 41
      -7 Southampton -6
      114 Stoke 122
      71 Swansea 88
      148 Tottenham Hotspur 173
      129 Watford 148
      143 West Bromich Albion 153
      -37 West Ham United -54

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Thanks for clearing that up Doos!

    8. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Eriksen. 😉

      1. G-Whizz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        Can't fault you there, and the numbers strangely back that decision 😆

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGenius…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          😀

        2. shearer9
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          How do the numbers specifically back Eriksen? Or is it just the case they indicate Spurs' attacking assets have equal chance of success.

          1. G-Whizz
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • Has Moderation Rights
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 7 months ago

            No, the numbers will never be able to predict which player, just the teams they play in, that call on which player is entirely up to you...

  23. Naboo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Forster / Elliot
    Jones / Hegazi / Mee / Lowe / Long
    Mkhi / Eriksen / Salah / Carroll / RLC
    Kaku / Kane / Chicha

    Assuming no injuries which transfer would you do this week?

    A - Hegazi > Bavies (0.8ITB)
    B - Hegazi > Mendy (0.0ITB)
    C - Chicha > Firmino (0.2ITB)

    Between A and B atm. I think Mendy could be a great diff but scared a Bavies ownership and rises

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

    2. _figu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A

  24. the snazzy viking
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    For anyone who is feeling bad that they're aren't getting a high TV, I've had to deal with 6 price falls and maybe another 2 tonight with Gabbiadini and Suttner, oh and I own Pogba too. Would've been an additional 4 if I didn't transfer out at least a few players before their falls

    1. VFORVANDETA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Didn't really care.

    2. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Mane and Pogba owner here, with triple Sou defence atm as well 😐

      1. the snazzy viking
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        I only just got Mane and Pogba last week and now I'm being forced into replacements 🙁

        1. F4L
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          🙁 Worse thing is there is such a lack of replacements

        2. G-Whizz
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 7 months ago

          You're in good company some of the top 10 HoFers did the exact same and on a WC too...

  25. F4L
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Spurs Dortmund is massive tonight.

    1. G-Whizz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Indeed, I need Spurs to come back without injuries please, don't really care about the result lol

  26. Cube
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    I'm talking a punt on Rashford...Is he worth it?

    1. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      could be

    2. Cube
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      *taking

    3. @fpl_phenom
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      well Martial started champo so hes as good as nailed for the Everton game.... could be an absolute bargain!

  27. stewlynz
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Wondered your views on the following: Pogba to

    A) Siggy
    B) Antonio and use the change to upgrade P Jones to B Davies

    1. That Was Easy!
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      If between those 2, I'd go Antonio. Got MOTM last week and points are to follow. Siggy is more a wait and see, we don't know what Everton will be like when fixtures get better.

  28. That Was Easy!
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Who to get out of these on my WC?

    A) Maguire
    B) Monreal
    C) Otamendi

    Have 5.5 to spend on my last D (Already have Cedric, don't want double SOU)

    1. the snazzy viking
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      Haters are going to hate but B

      1. That Was Easy!
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 7 months ago

        That's what I think to. Thanks.

    2. stewlynz
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I think A. Decent fixtures and likes a goal.

    3. _figu
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      I'd want Kolasinac and Maguire on my WC for their fixtures.

    4. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      A all the way

  29. T Money
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    Who scores more in the next 3:

    Ritchie + Bavies (-4)

    Alli + Carroll

    1. T Money
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 7 months ago

      (Points)

  30. Hart-ake
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 7 months ago

    I'm thinking of doing Abraham to Joselu (with a FT). It feels sideways, but I'm tempted considering the stats and fixtures. Should I bother?