The ScoutCast – Episode 232 – Feisty

Thanks for the work

Excellent. Im a premium defenders fan. Playing 442 first weeks and WC now also 442. OR rank 27k atm.

Nice work

Ok

This deserved to be posted at drive time, not midnight. But fair play. So youre going with Wing Backs?

Great write up, must have done a fair bit of research to come up with all that. Have been on the wingback since gw1, nice to see the stats backing it up!

superb read 🙂

Go clean on

Yea I'm thinking of 5 wing backs to go with my team of Salah Eriksen Rooney Jesus Kane

You can now add Man City to that list with walker and Mendy.

Thinking 433/442 may be the way to go on WC

100% agree and being saying it without the stats to back it up for weeks!

433 formation just confirms this. Kola, Davies are a must and Alonso/Mendy if you can afford. Jones is so cheap he has to take up one spot though and you need a 4.0 5th mid to accommodate this.

The lack of mid priced striker options also forces a 433 with Firmino offering the best 3rd striker option.

The problem is choosing between which top 2 strikers to get. Morata/Kane? Kane/Lukaku? Kane/Jesus?

For me, wingbacks and 3 strikers is where it's at with the mids taking the least investment.

Mkhit and Eriksen/Alli are musts for mids, especially if you don't opt for Lukaku/Kane up top

Thank u for sharing the data that backs up ur assertion. It's priceless and that insight should only be available to members. No question about it.
The question that then begs itself is whether to go with 5 at the back. My answer would surely be yes if it weren't for spot #4 & #5 which are currently occupied by Kolasinac & Stones. The first 3 spots being occupied by Alonso Davies Blind..

This is great, but the issue with calculations like these is the time frame. Looking at the season as a whole is made less effective by the 2 wildcards and 35 free transfers that let us make short term moves.

great stuff, thanks for posting

This is great!! Just the dilemma ive been thinking about all season.. Next WC I'll be using this post as inspiration, thanks 😀

Thanks for the research! Ties in with my theory that a back 5 may actually pay off! With Kane, Lukaku and Firmino up front it only allows me to field 4 wingbacks and a CB with goal threat...

Now if someone on the cheap side like a Cresswell (adds to WL) were to get on my radar, it would be very interesting...

Star post.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sI66hcu9fIs

Best 5 Wingbacks:
1. Alonso
2. Davies
3. Kolasinac
4. Mendy
5. Cresswell

All are left back

Cheers, great write up.

I agree completely, my backline is;

Davies, Mendy, Azilipueta, Kolasanic

I only ditched Alonso for Davies so I could bring in Kane.

I was always an advocate of the strong midfield but with the potential points from wing backs, its they way to go.

Article of the month! Would you go maverick and go 5 at the back with wing backs or just stick with 4?

I hate the way everyone compares expensive defenders to similar priced midfielders. It's a mistake IMO. You should be comparing them to other defenders at different price points instead. Yes Alonso might score 180-190 this year which will probably be more than a Ramsey or Willian, but his place in your squad could also go to a Cedric/Daniels/Davies who may get 120-140 but for considerably less money. A rotation of 2 x 4.5m defenders could also provide similar or better value.

We have Jones, Davies, Cedric, Daniels, Maguire, Dawson, Stones, Bellerin, Kolasinac, Mawson, Keane and many more at 1-2m less than Alonso who can provide equal or better value for money in a defensive spot. The midfielders at that price range tend to be fewer, less predictable and less secure in their teams. So Alonso, Valencia, Walker etc might outscore Willian, Tadic, Arnautovic etc but they are also taking up the place of a Jones or a Davies who can massively outscore an Atsu, Fraser or JWP.

This is why I actually prefer a 4-3-3 this year as it allows for maybe one top priced defender and a couple of excellent value midpricers. Combined with the that we have the best array of 4.5m mids I've seen since playing the game in Carroll, Chalobah, Cork and RLC who can provide great cover and allow a bigger spend on the front 6.

Kolasinac Walker Davies Bertrand is my current backline looking to add Azpi for Chelsea cover, still have my WC in hand if that midfield needs Sanchez though!

Sshhhhh.

With all respect for the very hard work you have obviously done, this is a fatally flawed analysis and I will tell you why in two words. Here's the key sentence from your post:

"...if we assume that the top 6 wingbacks would score and assist in the same ratio as the Chelsea wingbacks did..."

And the two words are: YOU CAN'T.

Alonso is a very, very specific player. People imagine that his points-scoring is because he is a wingback and that therefore any other wingback will be similarly advantaged. Not true. Was Sterling especially advantaged to be played as a striker for Liverpool? No. Because he isn't cut out to be a striker. 😕

Wingback is a position that suits Alonso down to the ground. There are very few (if any) others that it suits so perfectly or benefits so much. Those it doesn't suit so well won't get the same advantage from it. In addition, a good part of Alonso's potency comes from his free-kick capability. Is Walker that good at free-kicks? Is Bellerin? Is Aurier? Playing wingback won't give them that if they don't already have it.

The idea that wingbacks are especially advantaged BECAUSE THEY ARE WINGBACKS is actually a myth. That emperor has no clothes. He is nude. He is starkers. He is a buck-naked emperor. (Hopefully some will be old enough to pick up the Python allusion.) And believe it or not, I am wishing to be helpful by saying so. It would have saved me time (and doubtless a bunch of criticism upcoming) to hold my peace as I mostly do (in terms of long posts at least) on FFS nowadays.

PS. A merry Xmas and goodwill to all men. 🙂

Brilliant write up, well done

Something else that isn't really mentioned which I like about going 4-3-3; Your bench looks a lot stronger as it will naturally contain two 4.5m playing midfielders like RLC/Carrol/Cork.

Gomes
Alonso-Kola-Davies-Jones
Eriksen-Mykh-5.5m
Kane-Jesus-Firmino

Elliot-RLC-Carroll-4.0

That's what i'd wildcard to right now, and it looks very good.

This neglects the other spot. It's a 6.5m wingback + a 4.5m mid or a 4.5m def + a 6.5m mid.

Great read

Thank you for your hard work on this - a very timely topic.

Thoughts:

You make a lot of assumptions based on Alonso's performances last season. He is a bit of a freak though - not sure the likes of Bavies can match his scoring ability.

Average vs median statistic: here is a question for other stattos. Should we not be using the median figure to get a more realistic idea of data? Median data discounts the one off "high score" whereas the average figure is often distorted by this.