Wisdom Of The Crowd – Gameweek 5

Each week we review the aggregated predictions on Superbru’s Premier League Predictor game, using the collective Wisdom of the Crowd predictions to guide our fantasy football thinking.

Please join the FFS league here and add your own predictions to the data – the more there are, the more accurate the crowd should be (in theory).

GAMEWEEK 4 REVIEW

It was not such a good week for the Crowd – our user Mr Crowd Wisdom (using the aggregated community prediction statistics as his picks) moved down 46 places, but remains 90th in the FFS league out of 371 players, and well above average overall.

Congratulations to Mark Dunseith, aka Dunder28, who won the Yellow Cap in the FFS league – he picked eight out of the 10 matches correctly, and moved up to sixth in the league.

Here are the Gameweek 4 results in descending order of predictability:

We can also review the Predicted Goals Scored and Conceded against the actual results:

Once again, Liverpool were involved in the most unexpected match in terms of goals scored and conceded – having put four past Arsenal, they then conceded give at Manchester City.  The Watford and Newcastle defences also performed better than expected, suggesting that investment in the likes of Hornets defender Kiko Femenia and Magpies keeper Rob Elliot is not without merit.

GAMEWEEK 5 PREVIEW

Here is the Expected Goals chart for each fixture in Gameweek 5:

And here is the ranking of teams in order of Expected Goals Scored and Conceded:

Manchester City are expected to score the most goals, which isn’t that surprising given that they’ve scored nine  in the last week. Surprisingly though their attacking players, such as Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus do not feature too high in this week’s Captain’s Poll (see homepage to vote).

Tottenham, Liverpool, Man United and Chelsea – all with home fixtures – are also expected to perform well in attack, and so those backing Harry Kane, Christian Eriksen, Mo Salah or Roberto Firmino may be encouraged by having the wisdom of the crowd on their side.

Meanwhile, Ben Davies looks to be the prime pick in defence, with a clean sheet expected as well as the promise of attacking returns at Wembley.

Here are the aggregated picks that we’ll enter into the game for Mr Crowd Wisdom in the FFS pool:

Is there anything else that catches your eye in these crowd predictions?

Don’t forget to join the FFS league on Superbru and make your predictions each week so that they are included in these data – the more knowledgeable people there are, the more accurate they should be in theory.