Over the past few weeks, and particularly in advance of Gameweek 5, Harry Kane has dominated a raft of underlying statistics. Although this has only resulted in one league points bonanza, against Everton in Gameweek 4, he is still seen by many as a key rival to other premium heavy hitters – including Romelu Lukaku, Sergio Aguero, Alvaro Morata and Gabriel Jesus. He is also still considered the frontrunner in the race for the golden boot.
With his rivals proving more consistent, in the case of Lukaku, or more explosive, in the case of Aguero, it is perhaps surprising that Kane is still in so many teams.
Such is his allure that some have been more willing to part with the Manchester United frontman than the Spurs striker, who has also scored a brace against Borussia Dortmund in September, as well as a goal against Malta for England.
Time and again those enticing underlying statistics are presented by his backers. But if we delve into the data further, the choice between Kane and his rivals is not so clear cut.
In fact, the statistics suggest that other strikers could outscore, or at the very least closely challenge, Kane over the course of the season. Considering that Kane is still 0.8m more expensive than his most expensive rival, Lukaku, and would have cost 1m more at the start of the season, the stats suggest we should not just assume that Kane is the best pick in the league.
Last season’s hangover
A lot of the support for Kane is understandably based on his form last year, when he finished as the top scorer in the league with 29 goals. This was impressive in a side that scored the highest number of goals (86), which was more than any side has managed in the league since Manchester City and Liverpool both scored over 100 goals in the 2013/14 season.
However, Lukaku finished only four goals behind Kane, playing in a significantly less creative and threatening team than Kane. Spurs scored 24 more goals than Everton in the league – a huge number, almost 40% of Everton’s total goals scored.
In addition, seven of Kane’s goals arrived in the last two games of the season, “freak” games in many ways as Spurs racked up 13 goals against Leicester and Hull. Had Kane not scored those seven goals, Lukaku would have finished top scorer, and would we really be so keen on Kane as a result?
The heavy hitters’ teams
It is also important to take into account Lukaku’s move from Everton to Manchester United.
He is now playing at the team that is currently joint top of the league and that has scored the joint highest number of goals (16) across five matches.
Further options exist from Manchester City’s frontline, with Aguero and Jesus already netting nine goals between them and looking much more settled after a season under Pep Guardiola.
Chelsea have been less prolific but are the reigning champions and Alvaro Morata seems to fit well into their line-up and have scored eight goals in total.
Spurs have only scored seven and look to be struggling after their exploits of last season.
While the “Wembley effect” can be overrated, it cannot be discounted. Spurs were absolutely incredible at White Hart Lane last season, going unbeaten in the Premier League. It was inevitable that losing the home comforts of the Lane for a new stadium would lead to an adjustment period, which is exactly what has happened with points already dropped at home in each of the three games Spurs have played at Wembley to Chelsea, Burnley and Swansea.
Until Spurs are fully settled in at Wembley, Kane seems a prohibitively expensive luxury at 12.5m, especially considering that Christian Eriksen and Dele Alli are outscoring him for 2.8m and 3m less respectively. Even from Kane’s incredible season last year, Alli outscored him and Eriksen was only six points behind, primarily due to the frontman’s injuries.
Shots versus big chances
As far as this season is concerned, Kane has had the most shots of anyone in the league, with 32. That’s eight more than Lukaku, and at least 15 more than Aguero, Jesus and Morata. Of Kane’s 32 shots, 23 have been in the box, which beats Lukaku by five and Aguero, Jesus and Morata by at least nine. Kane has also had the highest number of shots on target in the league with 11, though importantly this the same number as Lukaku despite Kane having eight more total shots.
This suggests that Kane is the most threatening striker in the league – right?
Well, not necessarily. The number of big chances is key when it comes to translating shots into goals. And when it comes to big chances, Kane has had fewer than each of Lukaku, Aguero, Jesus and Morata.
Lukaku is currently peerless when it comes to big chances, having seen nine come his way in just five matches. That’s more than Aguero and Jesus, who have seen six each, and Morata, who has had five. Considering that Kane had the most big chances in the league last season, with 28 from 30 appearances, this clearly demonstrates Lukaku’s potential, with big chances coming his way this season at almost double the rate of Kane last season.
However, Kane is languishing behind each of his rivals as heavy hitting strikers, and is level with Joselu and Rooney with just four big chances in five games. Kane has scored just one of those big chances, and it’s important to remember that one of his goals was actually a cross.
The result is that Kane’s goal conversion is only 6.3%. This is an astonishingly low figure for a player of Kane’s calibre – last season he stuck away his chances at a rate of 26.4%.
This season, in comparison, Aguero has a conversion rate of 29.4%, Jesus’ is 26.7%, Lukaku’s is 20.8% and Morata’s is 18.8%. These conversion rates for Jesus and Lukaku are similar to their performances last season (29.2% and 22.7% respectively), although Aguero has seen a big jump this season from a 14.4% conversion rate last season.
This suggests it’s no surprise that Kane is already three goals behind Lukaku and Aguero in the golden boot race.
Conclusion
So, does this mean that we can completely discount Kane?
There is obviously a risk in doing so, as Kane remains one of the most explosive players in the league. However, Lukaku, Aguero and Jesus, in particular, are all capable of similarly explosive performances, for significantly less money than Kane. Sticking with Kane through this barren patch is certainly hurting many managers, particularly those who insist on captaining him each week due to the high number of shots he is taking – and ignoring the lack of big chances.
I have avoided Kane all season, with Lukaku and Jesus in his place (and a Spurs double up in midfield with Eriksen and Alli), which has done me well so far. Until we see a greater indication of both Spurs and Kane hitting form, not least at Wembley, Kane will be staying well out of my team regardless of how many shots he keeps taking.
6 years, 7 months agoThis is very persuasive - especially the big chances stats.
Sticking with or ditching Kane is the key issue us Kane owners have to face this week.