The Digest – Gameweek 5

Our final look back at Gameweek 5 focuses on the player, the team and the major talking point served up.

Not surprisingly, Manchester City dominate in all three categories, as Sergio Aguero reclaims his Fantasy royalty status and Pep Guardiola’s in-form outfit prepare for a superb run of fixtures that looks set to have an impact on our short-term plans.

Here’s The Digest…

The Player

Sergio Aguero went into Gameweek 5 sitting in just 10% of Fantasy Premier League squads.

At the time of typing out these words – just three days later – the Manchester City striker now boasts a 19% ownership thanks to his three goals and assist in the 6-0 demolition of Watford.

Aguero’s 20-point haul at Vicarage Road has turned the Fantasy market on its head – he’s already risen twice in price since the weekend, sitting at 11.6 after earning over 430,000 new owners.

His return to form could barely be better timed as Pep Guardiola’s side prepare for three superb home fixtures in the next four Gameweeks, with Crystal Palace, Stoke City and Burnley all visiting the Etihad.

Many had written off the Argentine ahead of this season, with Gabriel Jesus looking the likelier candidate to spearhead City’s attack as the lone striker.

But Guardiola’s decision to switch to two up front has forced a reassessment.

The top forward for shots and efforts inside the box last season, Aguero racked up 20 league goals but converted a mere 14.4% of his opportunities.

This time around, he’s netted 29.4% of his efforts – far superior to his previous career-high of 20.2% in 2015, when he scored 24 times.

Perhaps tellingly, City are providing Aguero with more quality scoring opportunities, with his big chances per appearance up from 0.9 to 1.2. And Aguero himself is also being far more creative – a total of 12 key passes is more than any other forward.

Granted, his appearance as a sub against Bournemouth in Gameweek 3 is still a sign that Guardiola will throw us a curveball from time to time.

Yet despite starting four league matches to Jesus’ five, Aguero has played 50 minutes more than his team-mate. Of those four starts, he’s only failed to complete eight minutes.

Encouragingly, his lack of pitch-time for Argentina could also play into our hands – he’s now failed to play a single minute in their previous four matches and last featured (as a second-half substitute) for his country back in March.

We never doubted his quality – the only concern was his manager’s penchant for rotation. But with those fears now gradually evaporating, Aguero’s form and upcoming fixtures are paramount in our thinking.

The Team

Saturday’s win at Watford continued a relentless run of results as Man City sweep aside their opponents with a ruthless efficiency.

In their last three matches across all competitions, Guardiola’s troops have racked up 15 goals without reply and Fantasy managers are clambering for a piece of the action.

After flirting with different tactical set-ups, including three-man defences, lone striker systems and 4-2-2-2 formations, it appears that Guardiola may have finally struck gold with 4-1-3-2.

While Aguero is the flavour of the week on the back of his latest haul, let’s not forget that strike partner Jesus has netted four times. Indeed, the duo are the top two forwards for minutes per goal (75.4 and 81.8) this season – both are ahead of Romelu Lukaku (90 minutes) on the other side of Manchester.

But there is clear points potential elsewhere in Guardiola’s XI.

In midfield, David Silva’s pair of assists took him to four for the season, offering a cheaper alternative to Kevin De Bruyne at 8.3 to 9.9. Both sit among the top four in the Premier League for key passes, supplying 17 and 15 respectively.

Written off by many after drawing blanks in the first three fixtures due to a deep-lying role, De Bruyne – like Aguero – has been one of the main beneficiaries of the new formation, serving up three assists to Silva’s two from Gameweek 4 onwards.

Yet it’s been the addition of new full-backs Benjamin Mendy and Kyle Walker that’s arguably allowed Guardiola more tactical scope.

The pair offer an energy and drive down the flanks that City sorely lacked last season. In the past two Gameweeks alone, they’ve served up three FPL assists and 35 points between them, while Nicolas Otamendi also delivered 12 points at Vicarage Road.

From front to back, it seems we’re spoilt for choice as we look to invest in a side that sits joint-top with Man United for goals scored (16) and least goals conceded (two).

And their allure has only been heightened by Guardiola’s recent lack of tinkering. He’s made just one change to his line-up in each of those last three matches and seems to be looking for a little more stability in his quest for the title.

The Talking Point

Prior to Saturday, it looked as if Lukaku and Harry Kane would continue to dominate our three-man frontlines.

One has FPL popularity and output to consistently punish non-owners, the other boasts the underlying numbers that suggest goals – and then more goals – will follow.

Yet both have been among the main victims in the scramble for Aguero’s services.

Kane, understandably, has suffered most on the back of four blanks in five – over 75,000+ have replaced him with the City striker, yet he’s set to play West Ham, Huddersfield and Bournemouth in the next three.

And despite scoring for the fourth match in five, over 49,000 Lukaku owners have made the same move. That’s perhaps influenced by the schedule – whereas City offer three home matches in the next four, United play just once at Old Trafford, albeit against Palace.

The same applies to Roberto Firmino (71,000+) owners and Alvaro Morata (46,000+) as the Man City impact is felt right across our frontlines.

To an extent, the focus on forwards has been partly down to the lack of goals from midfield – at this point last year, 18 midfielders had scored at least twice, whereas only 10 have achieved that feat in 2017/18.

So far, the forwards have been more explosive than beforehand – six have scored at least three times, compared with only four at the same point in the previous campaign.

Yet therein lies the problem – we can’t fit all of them into our squads.

Sometimes, sitting still and keeping faith can be the answer – there can be a fine line between chasing last week’s points and trying to predict what’s to follow.

On the other hand, with so many in-form options on offer, perhaps this is a campaign where few of us will grant any frontman a permanent spot in our squads.

Striking that balance in our attacks – or, as the song goes, knowing when to hold ‘em and knowing when to fold ‘em could be pertinent than ever.