Members

The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Epic Fail
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    D'you think Poch will keep faith in Llorente for the weekend after his hattrick and 2 assists tonight?

    1. LarryDuff
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      in my opinion regardless of how he plays Kane is still first choice

      1. Fantasy Gold
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        lol

    2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Oh, yes! 😉

      1. Epic Fail
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        Cheers. Just did Kane -> Llorente for a hit before the inevitable price rise.

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 3 months ago

          😯 Aaargggh! 😆

          1. Gnu
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 3 months ago

            😆

    3. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Maybe playing him together with Kane. Kane should start.

  2. ZeBestee
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    Regret not ditching Sane for Coutinho before the price changes.
    Have Salah and Sane currently. Do:

    1) Sane 》Coutinho
    2) Sane 》Sterling

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      1

      1. ZeBestee
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        Thanks. I will wait till Friday and make the move.

  3. Strchld
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    Change that D.Silva play weeekend?

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Many think he's not injured at all

      1. Strchld
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        Yep, would like to be "sure". Im i gonna let him go for a hit or keep.

  4. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    That's Sane on the bench Sunday then

    1. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      He's played literally every game for City that he's been fit for, he's Peps fave

    2. Ode
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Are you actually serious?

      1. Scotty B
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        Yeah he was awful as well Sunday and he's in the B team

        1. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 3 months ago

          With that theory do you think Jesus will be on the bench too? 3/4 of Sane Sterling Jesus Aguero are going to start on Sunday

  5. Mateja
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    From now to the end of season what do you think how much games CalvertLewin will start? in % answer 🙂

    1. FPL Emu
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      65%

    2. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      %? I'm not Carol Vorderman.

      He'll start about 7.

    3. ★Kuntheman★
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Don't rely on a 5.1 striker mate haha

      1. Epic Fail
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        Especially when they 'should' buy a striker in Jan.

      2. Mateja
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        Well if he would start atleast 60% of games i would pick him and dont have headaches about 3rd striker 🙂

    4. GAMBIT
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      I'm 100% sure Big Sam will get a striker in Jan if that helps you any

      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        Yep. He is gonna buy Andy Carroll!!! 😆

        1. GAMBIT
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 3 months ago

          Yikes. Might as well try to get Kevin Nolan out of retirement too.

          1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 3 months ago

            You haven't heard? 😉

          2. Gnu
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 3 months ago

            England in waiting apparently.
            According to his chairman who is new to football ownership.
            Already marking himself down as King of the clowns imo.

            1. Gnu
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 3 months ago

              Darn.
              *England manager*

              1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                6 years, 3 months ago

                😀

                1. Dreams
                  • 7 Years
                  6 years, 3 months ago

                  Hello there senior player and manager. Looks like you fellas are having a nice time here.

                  1. Gnu
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    6 years, 3 months ago

                    Just chillin'
                    Captains lurking somewhere - think he's at the bar!

                    1. Dreams
                      • 7 Years
                      6 years, 3 months ago

                      He's always at the bar when he's posting here I reckon.

                      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        6 years, 3 months ago

                        😆

                      2. Gnu
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        6 years, 3 months ago

                        Well done on top score this week, edged the victory I reckon. 🙂

                      3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        6 years, 3 months ago

                        Yep. Bolivian Bandit!

                      4. Dreams
                        • 7 Years
                        6 years, 3 months ago

                        Got lucky with the Couti pick. I'm just relieved that I didn't fook up the midweek game with my terrible score.

    5. A.T
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      They'll but someone in Jan and that'll be it.

  6. FPL Emu
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    I've realized I have got to get Kane in for Jesus

    To fund that, either I go Vardy to a max 7.2 million forward, or Otamendi to a max 4.4 million defender.

    Suggestions as to what and whom?

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Why would you be getting kane in right now.. bit silly. Stick with vardy

      1. FPL Emu
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        Not really silly, is it? Next two fixtures are great. Beat Stoke 4-0 three times in a row, where he scored six. Great captaincy option imo

    2. Ode
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Kane & Spurs look bad, get him for the Dgw

  7. Fantasy Gold
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    Seems a bit silly of Klopp to play his full allocation tonight considering the game on Sunday.

    An injury to one of Cout/Mané/Salah/Firmino would make the decision look a tad silly

    1. ★Kuntheman★
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Not as silly as if he were to play a rotational squad and lose

      1. Klopptomist Scott Jelly
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        This

    2. GAMBIT
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      We want to top the group to avoid Barcelona so they can't come to Anfield and tap up Coutinho

    3. Clump
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Disagree. Champs league qualification at stake.
      We could cope without 2 of the above at the weekend.

  8. Fantasy Gold
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    As an Alli owner, I’m not feeling too good that he’s playing tonight with mainly second string players.

    Time to ship him out if he is crap tonight I guess

    1. #FPLBhuna
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Don't be silly. He's missed first few games of champions league and there's nothing like a goal from him tonight to get the momentum going again

    2. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Yeah there are other better cheaper options. Alli has regressed a bit this season unfortunately

  9. FPL Maldini
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    How many West Ham and Spurs players are people planning to get for the DGW?

    I am thinking Hart / Sanchez / Cresswell / Kane and one more

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      More than none and less than two 😆

    2. Epic Fail
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Between 3 and 6.

    3. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      1 & 3.

    4. I Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Just Kane and a goalkeeper I think. 48 days between games, rotation will be fierce. Alli and Eriksen would have to show some serious form for me to even consider ditching the midfielders I have now.

      1. KingOfLuck
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 3 months ago

        48 days should be enough for professionals

  10. Cok3y5murf
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    Kane 100% blank this weekend

    1. Fantasy Gold
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Four goals

  11. John t penguin
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    New article
    Find it yourself I ain't a guide dog

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Woof.

  12. Daviek212
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    Which two would you pick for this weekend?

    Richarlison (bur)
    Ward (WAT)
    Naughton (WBA)

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 3 months ago

      Bench ward

  13. LaCazettio
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    Sane & Jesus out for Hazard and Andre Gray?

  14. Whits
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    Brady and Kolasinac to Coutinho and Femenia?

    A) YES
    B) NO

    Other defenders I have are Otamendi, Mee, Naughton and Mbemba.

    Thanks

  15. JoeSoap
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 3 months ago

    Which 2 would you bench? assuming Moreno is fit.

    A. Moreno (EVERTON)
    B. Ward (WATFORD)
    C. Daniels (c palace)
    D, Duffy (hudders)
    E. Maguire (newc)