Frisking the Fixtures – Gameweek 23 – The Strong

We now emerge from the hectic festive schedule to an altogether more sedate period of the season, which includes another FA Cup weekend and a midweek programme in Gameweek 25.

This next six-match block offers an even split in the fixtures, with all teams facing three home and away matches. That gives us a level playing field when analysing the strong and weak schedules to come.

In this first article – identifying those teams with the more favourable fixtures – we find that, Chelsea aside, it is the mid-table sides and relegation battlers that benefit. This suggests that Fantasy managers could perhaps use the schedule to identify new value options for our squads.

Chelsea

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The Prospects – Goals
With nine goals in their last three and five kind fixtures to follow, the outlook for Chelsea attack’s is very strong.

On Saturday, they entertain a Leicester City side that has struggled defensively against top six sides, conceding 18 goals in eight such encounters.

A trip to a Brighton & Hove Albion outfit that ranks third for the most shots conceded (74) over the last four Gameweeks follows, before Antonio Conte’s men host a Bournemouth side in Gameweek 25 that are without a clean sheet in nine.

The champions then travel to Watford, who have conceded more goals in home matches (23) than any other club.

Their kind run concludes with a home meeting against West Bromwich Albion in Gameweek 27. The Baggies shipped four goals when the two teams met earlier this season.

A difficult trip to Manchester United in Gameweek 28 signals the end of this spell, although that fixture will be rescheduled if the Blues progress past Arsenal to the Carabao Cup final.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Since the return of N’Golo Kante in Gameweek 11, no team has conceded fewer goals than Chelsea (six).

So with the upcoming schedule very obliging, they look set to add to the seven clean sheets produced over the last 12 Gameweeks.

Saturday’s opponents Leicester perhaps provide the sternest test over the next five, with Riyad Mahrez sparkling for the Foxes.

The Gameweek 24 trip to Brighton is more favourable, though, given that the Seagulls have failed to score in seven of their last 10 outings.

Bournemouth are the visitors to Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 25 and provide another enticing match-up, given that they’ve failed to score in their last six matches against top six clubs.

Although the trip to Watford that follows is more testing, it should still represent a reasonable opportunity for a shut-out.

The kind stretch concludes against West Brom in Gameweek 27, with the Baggies managing just four goals in eight matches since Alan Pardew took over at The Hawthorns, before that potential trip to Old Trafford in Gameweek 28.

The Turning Point
Back-to-back trips to Manchester clubs in Gameweeks 28 and 29 mark the beginning of a gruelling mini-run for the champions, before facing a favourable stretch of fixtures.

Verdict
With three goals over the last five Gameweeks, Marcos Alonso is more than justifying his premium price tag and with more defensive returns expected, the Spaniard looks near essential.

Chelsea attacking cover, be it Eden Hazard or even the out of sorts Alvaro Morata, could – and should – pay off, though both are expensive. At just 6.8, Cesc Fabregas might be an option to explore, then.

West Ham United

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The Prospects – Goals
The Hammers have recorded 14 goals in 11 encounters since David Moyes took charge. That’s not a huge improvement from the 11 in 11 matches under Slaven Bilic.

However, there is hope for an upturn in goals heading into an extremely promising run of fixtures.

Saturday’s trip to Huddersfield Town is difficult to predict, with the Terriers normally resolute at home though their defence have allowed 21 big chances at home – only three teams have conceded more.

The home clashes against Bournemouth and Crystal Palace in Gameweeks 24 and 25 should be more profitable. No team has conceded more goals (10) than the Cherries over the last four Gameweeks. Meanwhile, although Palace have been impressive at the back, they are currently ravaged by defensive injuries and look vulnerable.

Gameweek 26 opponents Brighton can be tough to break down at the Amex Stadium, with the Gameweek 27 meeting with Watford likely to yield more goals – no team has given up more big chances than the Hornets (12) over the last four Gameweeks.

This six-match run concludes with a daunting test at Anfield, before a trip to Swansea City and visit from Burnley.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Similarly, Moyes has gained just three clean sheets in his 11-match tenure – an identical record to Bilic.

But recent performances – particularly the stubborn rearguard effort against Spurs last time out – indicates that further shut-outs are within reach. The schedule certainly hands the opportunity to improve their record.

Saturday’s trip to Huddersfield looks reasonable, given that the Terriers have only scored twice over the last four Gameweeks.

The back-to-back home fixtures against Bournemouth and Palace in Gameweeks 24-25 could be tricky encounters.

The Cherries have fired more shots in the box (50) than any side over the last four Gameweeks, netting seven times.

Palace, meanwhile, are rejuvenated under Roy Hodgson, and have picked up seven points from their last three away trips, scoring six goals.

Brighton’s limited attacking threat should make the Gameweek 26 match-up a reasonable one, with Gameweek 27 opponents Watford providing more of a threat – 17 of the Hornets’ 31 goals have arrived on their travels.

The Gameweek 28 trip to Liverpool provides the only major negative during this stretch.

The Turning Point
With the Spurs clash out of the way, the schedule remains kind all the way up to Gameweek 30, before the Hammers embark on a brutal run between Gameweeks 31 and 36.

Verdict
Marko Arnautovic is expected to return this weekend following a hamstring injury and, with five goals and an assist in his last six, looks the key attacking target with Manuel Lanzini the alternative.

At the back, Adrian and Angelo Ogbonna should continue to provide good value over this forthcoming spell.

Brighton & Hove Albion

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The Prospects – Goals
Goals remain hard to come by for the Seagulls, with just three over the last seven Gameweeks. But Chelsea aside, the upcoming fixtures offer up plenty of favourable encounters.

Saturday’s opponents West Brom have been reasonably solid at the back under Alan Pardew, but sat in 19th place, provide a decent match-up.

Chelsea’s impressive defensive record makes the Gameweek 24 meeting a daunting prospect, but the trip to Southampton looks very promising: the Saints have conceded in each of their last six at St Mary’s.

In Gameweek 26, Chris Hughton’s side host a West Ham side that have conceded in each of their last four.

The six-match stretch ends with two very favourable clashes.

Gameweek 27 opponents Stoke have conceded eight goals over the last four Gameweeks, and are joint-top for the most big chances conceded (12), while in Gameweek 28, Brighton host a Swansea side that have conceded nine goals in their last three away encounters.

The Prospects – Clean Sheets
Given that Brighton’s success this season has been based on their defence, our focus lies in that area.

West Brom’s lack of goals offers hope for Saturday’s match-up, before Chelsea visit the Amex in Gameweek 24 in a fixture unlikely to provide defensive returns.

Southampton are another side struggling for goals, making the clash in Gameweek 25 another favourable road trip.

A home clash against West Ham could prove trickier with confidence growing under Moyes’ stewardship. With just four and three goals respectively over the last four Gameweeks, though, the Stoke and Swansea match-ups provide two more favourable encounters.

The Turning Point
The visit of Arsenal to the south coast in Gameweek 29 marks the beginning of a daunting run-in for the Seagulls, emphasising how important it is to make the most of the upcoming period.

Verdict
With three clean sheets in their last five and the favourable upcoming schedule, the likes of Shane Duffy and Lewis Dunk should continue to offer strong value.

Glenn Murray remains a viable third forward option given the lack of alternatives, while, with more chances created (14) than any player over the last four Gameweeks, Pascal Gross could re-emerge as a cheap midfield option.

Also consider…

Watford
Marco Silva’s side have the opportunity to halt their recent slump with a kind schedule from now until Gameweek 29. Chelsea provide the major test at home, while the away matches (lei stk whu) are reasonable, certainly from an attacking perspective.

Although Richarlison has frustrated in recent months, the Brazilian looks to have the platform to regain some form.

Without a clean sheet in nine, there is less confidence in the Hornets backline, but if you own the likes of Christian Kabasele or Marvin Zeegelaar, they could be retained as budget fillers.

Stoke City
Potters assets initially appear an unlikely source of points, but with a new manager coming in, we would expect an bounce in form.

The fixtures list after Monday night’s trip to Manchester United (HUD WAT bou BHA lei sou) is very favourable, particularly with three home games in four from Gameweek 24.

In terms of the attack, Xherdan Shaqiri and Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting may both come back onto the radar.

Defensive targets are trickier to pin down, and less enticing given Stoke haven’t managed a clean sheet in their last 12 encounters.

But at 4.3 in Fantasy Premier League, and having started the last six, sometimes as a holding midfielder, Geoff Cameron could be one to monitor.

Leicester City
Their overall run is quite testing in the short-term, but they have to be considered by virtue of a run of home matches (WAT SWA STK BOU) and a very favourable outlook in the medium-to-long term.

The Foxes have only lost two of the seven home matches since Claude Puel took over from Craig Shakespeare, and have beaten both Spurs and Burnley.

Riyad Mahrez has been in sensational form of late, and can help break up midfield templates, while with two clean sheets from their last four at the King Power, and with two goals and four assists this season, Harry Maguire can justify his 5.4 price tag over the coming months. Ben Chilwell, at 4.3, is one to monitor – he started six of seven matches before being sidelined through illness recently

Everton
Sam Allardyce’s men are another team on the brink of joining our “strong” selection.

Once Saturday’s trip to Wembley is out of the way, their schedule improves markedly to deliver three strong home matches (WBA LEI CRY) around a difficult away trip to Arsenal.

Overall from Gameweeks 24 to 31, the Toffees have the platform to kick on, with Cenk Tosun having the opportunity to impress, with further defensive returns for Jordan Pickford in the offing.

Jonjoe Kenny owners will have to keep an eye on the progress of Seamus Coleman, though, with the Republic of Ireland international now back in training.