Feature

Feature – Risk vs Reward

Not all Fantasy points are created equal. While we obviously want to maximise the total returns gained over the course of the season, on an individual level we also need to account for the cost of those points and the certainty with which they can be projected.

Cost is fairly easy to measure by looking at points divided by millions of pounds spent. Risk, however, is more tricky but will be defined here as an inconsistent player. For example, consider the two players below:

Gameweek 1Gameweek 2Gameweek 3Gameweek 4Average
Player A56555.25
Player B101285.25

Both players give you the same total points but Player B’s erratic production is much harder to anticipate and can have a negative impact for a variety of reasons:

Transfer targets become difficult to predict, as you don’t know if Player B is a legitimate Fantasy option or merely someone who had a couple of standout games. It’s much more likely that Player A will be able to maintain his production going forward.

Squad players become trickier to rotate in your first XI, as you’re unable to predict with any certainty just what they might contribute that Gameweek. If you play a player week in, week out, this isn’t an issue, but if you are looking to rotate a player, consistency can be a valuable asset.

Inconsistent players are far more difficult to manage when it comes to the captain’s armband, someone like Player B could explode or flop in any given Gameweek. Captain him every week and this is not a concern but if, like most Fantasy managers, you change your captain on a regular basis, this unpredictability just increases the risk involved.

This data can only be used alongside other factors as it is (a) retrospective rather than predictive and (b) it isn’t necessarily a good idea to rid yourself of all risk in your side as this will also limit potential.

That said, we can attempt to identify comparable players who might bring equally good production potential for less risk, and thus represent a better use of your team’s valuable funds.

Before we start, a note about the charts included in this article. They plot a players average (mean) Gameweek score, against the standard deviation of those scores – eg: the level of rise and fall week by week, as a representation of the “risk” involved with a player. The further a player appears to the right of the X axis (bottom horizontal axis) of the chart, the greater the deviation or risk involved. The further the player appears up the Y axis (left vertical axis) – the greater their average Gameweek score. Ultimately, we’re looking for players with strong Gameweek scores, with as low a risk factor as possible – these players give strong returns but, crucially, are also consistent.

Let’s begin by looking at the forwards…

We can immediately see that in general, higher reward is accompanied by higher risk. This stands to reason – the top players have the ability to score double digit points in any given Gameweek, and thus have further to fall when things don’t go their way. However, there are a couple of match-ups where the ‘risk’ involved could be deciding factor:

Sergio Aguero vs Wayne Rooney – The Manchester rivals have been tough to distinguish this year. Both have averaged around six points per game, though Rooney has edged ahead in the past fortnight in terms of points per week thanks to a couple of big performances.

The popular perception is that Rooney brings a level of consistency matched by few but, in fact, his points total has been boosted by a handful of huge performances, including back-to-back hat tricks in Gameweeks three and four. That in itself isn’t a big problem but the fact that these displays have come against the likes of Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal made it likelier that Rooney wasn’t given the captain’s armband by his owners on those occasions.

Starting with Blackburn at home this weekend, Man City have the slightly more favourable fixtures in the short-term, and with Aguero consistently chipping in with good returns, he might just be the wiser choice right now.

Emmanuel Adebayor and Demba Ba vs. Elite forwards – there is a strong argument based on the above data, to plug both Adebayor and Ba into your lineup, using the funds saved to invest in midfield (where cheaper, consistent talent has been very hard to find). Both mid-price strikers have managed to deliver great consistency to match their high returns, as opposed to other flash-in-the-pans assets whose production has been erratic at best (we’re looking at you, Yakubu). Both Tottenham and Newcastle have a strong set of fixtures on the horizon, so while it isn’t controversial to suggest this pair is worth owning, there’s an argument to suggest that they can be owned instead of Rooney and Aguero, rather than alongside them.

Daniel Sturridge vs Edin Dzeko – Sturridge started the season on the sidelines and a lack of stand-out individual performances have really kept him out of the Fantasy headlines. His ownership has crept up into double digits but that level is still below what one would expect for a player with Sturridge’s risk/reward profile. He has found the net in eight different games, not far behind Rooney, Aguero and Ba (10) but a lack of substantial returns has suppressed his overall points total, and thus the interest of Fantasy managers. It goes without saying that Chelsea, and hence Sturridge, lack the upside of the two Manchester teams but if you’re looking to save some cash up top, or to differentiate from the widely-held Ba, Sturridge brings consistent returns, not often found for a player in his price range.

Steven Fletcher vs All other sub-7.0m forwards– the Wolves front man gained some attention during his solid run of form a few weeks back, but the above chart shows he may still be a touch undervalued. Yakubu and Zamora have both been more fancied Fantasy assets at some point this year but they carry much more risk than Fletcher, who has simply shown up and delivered close to five points per game at an almost unmatched level. Zamora may have a slightly higher upside but, if you’re a position to be rotating your third forward, Fletcher’s consistency makes him a very desirable option.

Steve Morison vs Danny Graham and Grant Holt – Morison has only delivered points on a league average basis, so this isn’t going to be the most exciting decision you make for your team. However, the attributes for a good third forward (who will often find himself benched) must include a level of consistency and Morison enjoys an advantage in that area, ahead of the group of comparable four-point-players. He’s found himself benched in the last two weeks and those concerns must obviously be addressed first, but if you believe he can get back into the Norwich lineup, he remains one of the best budget forwards to own.

You can immediately see the correlation is stronger among midfielders with fewer outliers to highlight. There are however, a couple of familiar names that are worth highlighting:

David Silva vs. Everyone else – Okay, admittedly, highlighting the second-top scoring midfielder around, owned by 44% of FPL managers isn’t going to win any awards for investigative journalism. However, idle wildcards are the devil’s tools and with Gareth Bale and Clint Dempsey continuing to impress, there may be many managers tempted to turn their collective backs on the Spanish maestro.

While looking for the next big thing is obviously a sound idea, the above data merely lends further weight to the fact that Silva is simply too good to drop. Bale has the edge on him in terms of pure point production per game but he has been significantly more unpredictable, raising the question as to whether Bale’s form will continue for the remainder of the season.

Silva, on the other hand, has failed to score or assist a goal in back-to-back starts just twice all season. When spending 10.0 plus, the security of knowing what you’re getting for your money is a huge benefit, especially if that stability is not accompanied by a downgrade in overall production. Assuming most Fantasy managers reading this already own Silva, this may be one area where apathy wins out . Doing nothing might just be the way to go with Silva – that transfer itch might be better scratched elsewhere.

Theo Walcott vs Mid range midfielders – Consistency isn’t the first word you associate with the frustrating Walcott but, in Fantasy terms at least, he has been exactly that this season. The winger chipped in with nine games of between five and nine points compared to fourteen disappointing outings, which doesn’t sound great in a vacuum but actually compares favourably to several more fancied options: Stephane Sessegnon (9 vs 14), Nani (8 vs 14) and Dempsey (8 vs 13). The high scores have been limited, which has really kept Walcott out of Fantasy managers’ minds and thus he represents a good buying opportunity given his high floor and mid-range ceiling. Having been dropped for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain the FA Cup trip to Sunderland last weekend, however, Walcott’s starts will need to be monitored, with a first-team starting place perhaps under question for the first time this season.

Consistency of defensive points is always going to be tied more to a player’s team than his own ability, so the analysis here is less telling, but a couple of names still pop up which deserve a quick mention:

Kyle Walker vs Benoit Assou-Ekotto – With a couple of big performances over the past six weeks, Assou-Ekotto has leapt to the top of the defensive points charts, though the above would suggest that team-mate Walker represents better value. Aside from the fact he is slightly cheaper and owned by less than half as many Fantasy managers, Walker has also delivered slightly better per-game returns on a much more consistent basis. Throw in Walker’s comparable, or marginally better, performance stats (including shots on goal and key passes) and you have a clear cut differential candidate who should remain on the radar.

Vincent Kompany vs Thomas Vermaelen – Vermaelen has rarely been a hot Fantasy property this term, but his positioning in our chart illustrates a worthy point of note. Defensive goalscorers obviously carry significant potential but the unpredictability of those returns can often limit a player’s value. If the goals have come in games where logic suggests the player should have been benched in our Fantasy lineups, they may have been wasted, but would have still boosted a player in the overall scoring charts.

Vermaelen has earned a large portion of his points from offensive production so, unless you are willing to play him every week, he looks way too unpredictable to justify his decent returns when compared with someone like Kompany, whose production has been much flatter, with City’s defensive returns his bread and butter.

Chris Glover Creator of the plfantasy blog, providing a stats focused approach to fantasy football. Exiled to Canada but still prefer my sports played on grass rather than ice. Follow them on Twitter

927 Comments Post a Comment
  1. CatMac
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Udit - you still here?

    You know there was talk the other day about setting up a Fantasy F1 league? Well I had an email yesterday from the website we did the AFCON league on and they had a link to what looks quite a promising F1 comp. Not mega prizes but free and it looks as though it involves some planning and participation without being overly taxing. What do you reckon?

    Link is http://fantasy.etana.co.za/f1fantasy/restricted/Dashboard.j

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    1. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I will play in this competition.

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      1. CatMac
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        What do you reckon, Ankit? Doesnt look too bad does it?

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        1. HappyAnkit
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          It's Good.
          I am creating a league.

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          1. CatMac
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Fab! Let me know when you've done it and I'll join 🙂

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            1. HappyAnkit
              • 12 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              League Code-
              16873178398881

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              1. CatMac
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                Cheers Ankit, I'll sign up now 🙂

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                1. HappyAnkit
                  • 12 Years
                  12 years, 1 month ago

                  Cheers Catmac. 🙂

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                2. HappyAnkit
                  • 12 Years
                  12 years, 1 month ago

                  No need to sign up.
                  Just enter your e-mail id & password with which you signed up for ACON Fantasy.

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                  1. CatMac
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    12 years, 1 month ago

                    Yeah, I found that out after I'd entered all the details to register 🙁

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                3. CatMac
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 14 Years
                  12 years, 1 month ago

                  Done. It took ages as I was already registered with them.

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        2. HappyAnkit
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Suggest A good Name for the league.

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          1. CatMac
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            I am sooo unoriginal with names 🙁

            Uhm, FFSF1 Racers?
            Scout Racing?

            No-one else here wanting to join think of a good name?

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            1. HappyAnkit
              • 12 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              I like 'FFS F1 Racers/Team'

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              1. CatMac
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                Go for that then. Pretty simple and self-explanatory to us on here.

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    2. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Scalextric have one too. But Scalextric has the exciting addition of overtaking. 😉

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      1. CatMac
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        We wanted something that was a bit testing without taking up too much of people's time. Do you have a link for it out of curiousity though, I cant find it on their main website?

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        1. In Like Flynn.
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          😆

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          1. CatMac
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Ok, I fell for that 😀

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    3. udit
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Catmac, Hi, just saw your post, Awesome! I'll join HappyAnkit's leauge right away, Great work there Detective Cat 😉 You're the number 1 cat around these parts.

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      1. CatMac
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Cheers Udit, it looks a decent competition. As for the last bit, I'm not so sure. Fuzzy's hat might disagree 😀

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        1. udit
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          nah, you pip/peep him meowt

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      2. HappyAnkit
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        +10000

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        1. CatMac
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          We'll have to spread the word at different times of the day to get as many participants as possible.

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          1. HappyAnkit
            • 12 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Sure.

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            1. CatMac
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              Testing name change

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              1. HappyAnkit
                • 12 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                Name Modified.

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              2. HappyAnkit
                • 12 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                Grammatical Error- Join in place of Joins.

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                1. CatMac
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 14 Years
                  12 years, 1 month ago

                  Done. Took the brackets away as well as it didnt look as clear.

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                  1. HappyAnkit
                    • 12 Years
                    12 years, 1 month ago

                    Its better now.

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  2. Caine & Co.
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Grrrreat article.

    However, Glen Johnson appears to be missing. He averages more points per GW than Kompany & has lower standard deviation. Clearly a diamond missing.

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    1. QPR expects... glory!
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Agreed.

      He's the one Liverpool transfer I'm looking to have done by the time their DGW is announced

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      1. Caine & Co.
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Same here. He's been under the radar, mainly because of missing 8 first GWs thus being low in the overall scores. I hadn't realized his potential myself, thanks goes to Demi.

        A welcomed differential to minileagues.

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  3. James
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    So, Valencia back in a week. SAF always lies about injury lengths! Pity I sold Valencia for McClean (for a hit), though I guess now I can sell Sess for Valencia when he is back vs West Brom.

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  4. The Finnisher
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    A little bored sooo.....Who's your personally preferred top 5 in each position?
    Mine;
    GK
    1. Krul
    2. Mignolet
    3. Hart
    4. Reina
    5. Vorm
    Defence
    1. Kompany
    2. BAE
    3. GJ
    4. Evans
    5. Skrtel
    Midfield
    1. Bale
    2. Valencia
    3. Sessegnon
    4. Silva
    5. Dempsey
    Forward
    1. Ba
    2. RVP
    3. Aguero/Rooney
    4. Rooney/Aguero
    5. Adebayor/Yakubu
    This is ignoring current fixtures mind you.

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    1. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Krul
      R Taylor err.. GJ
      Silva & Bale
      RVP

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    2. asyrafdanial
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      personally :-

      Vorm
      BAE
      Bale
      RVP

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  5. Elniñorules
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Reminder to the CL & ECL managers:

    In light of everyone’s hard work on their FFS gravs, group leaders will be now able to boast their gravs/logo besides the group, to show their dominance in the group standings.

    2 options:
    1) Upload on http://imgur.com/ and pass me the "direct link" (one with .jpg)
    2) Give me the URL of the grav

    PS: If we don’t have your grav when you’re a leader, we’ll put up the team logo.
    PPS: Please spread the word if possible, to your group-mates et al.

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    1. Elniñorules
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      For all those who've done this already, please ignore.

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    2. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Who is my group Leader?

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      1. Sleep Talk
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Guess he means group leader as in: The person on top of the group after matches has been played. Therefore, no group leaders at the moment.

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        1. HappyAnkit
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Got it.

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    3. Fratboy
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Cba

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      1. Ranaperro
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        ENR - has anyone done a preview of our group? I like all this talk of 'half a team of differentials' and 'big shock' and 'underdog'.

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        1. Elniñorules
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Halo Leverkusen,

          Matchday 1 preview - NO
          Group review - YES. For all groups, ColeHole has done them.

          Write-ups on my link. 🙂

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          1. Ranaperro
            • 12 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Sorry, meant Matchday Preview. Your link is fantastic btw - a lot of good work there. Now lets see if the same can be said for your team selection 😉 I'm thinking of captaining Andy Cole. Chelsea cleany and 2 assists vs Bolton. You read it here. Baha...

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            1. Ranaperro
              • 12 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              And of course i meant Ashley. Doh x-( Thank goodness Super Rugby started this morning so I can get involved in something I actually know something about

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              1. Elniñorules
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 12 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                Haha btw fancy writing our Matchday Preview? 😉

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              2. Christina.
                • 14 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                Nothing more frustrating then S15 fantasy rugby. I tried it once, and hated it. Rules still the same?

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            2. Elniñorules
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 12 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              NoOooooOOOooo

              He's my fave player. That would be harsh 😉

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              1. Ranaperro
                • 12 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                Ok, why not...

                Ya, the S15 fantasy rugby isn't great, but it's improving. Rules are pretty much the same but player values are getting better. Rugby is my first love, I only really got into this as a hangover after the world cup, but i've become a bit addicted. I'm just regretting deviating from the planning and losing 60k+ places in the last 2 GWs

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      2. heco87
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Ah Marseille ... how I look forward to our game.

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        1. Fratboy
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          yeah that'll be a good one! You should be worried, I'll have 2 free transfers 😉

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  6. Nomar
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Need to get Aguero in. Would love Ba and Raylor too but can't afford that.

    Should I go Dzeko to Aguero and Gerbil to Holt instead, for 4 pointer?

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  7. Pinoche
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Should I play R.Taylor?

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    1. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Why would you bench him? 😕

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    2. @FuzzyWarbles
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      no. give him to me. 🙂

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      1. Old Schoolᴼˢ “disa…
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        😆

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        1. Pinoche
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Who's your captain?

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          1. Old Schoolᴼˢ “disa…
            • 12 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Currently aguero but tempted by Ba and bale

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            1. Pinoche
              • 12 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              Ya,me too.
              I'm confused between Aguero and Ba.
              Though currentle is Aguero.

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      2. Pinoche
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        You can have him for 7m !

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    3. Nomar
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Yes. You should play the spawny git every GW.

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    4. The Finnisher
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Impressive ranking man
      I'd definitely play R.Taylor over BAE

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      1. Pinoche
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Thank you 🙂

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  8. Puncheon Debuchery
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    That is about as good an article as i've seen written here over the years. Definitely going to pocket that one and whip it out again at the start of next season.

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    1. roscola
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      +1

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  9. Mr Sarcastic
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    So I assume you know what post I'm talking to.
    You just don't like the answers. This answer that you gave now, just says it all really.
    Grow up man/teen/woman/trans.

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    1. The Finnisher
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      huh?

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      1. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks Jackers.

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    2. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I'm lost Kimo Sabi. And I don't have the time to go and look for your post.

      What you want?

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      1. Mr Sarcastic
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        This is propably asked before but

        a) do you get a hard on when men watch your wife in internet forum?
        b) does your wife get some sort of pleasure when men watch her in internet forum?
        c) does she even know?
        d) does she even exist?
        e) you think we should envy you?
        f) you think you have selected best fotos to show the world how much you love her?
        g) it ain't too big, but at least it works, ha?

        I just hope it makes you think a little, nothing more, especially the F-part.

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        1. Old Schoolᴼˢ “disa…
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Ok off to get a maccie D's for lunch... Look forward to reading the response when I get back 😀

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        2. Christina.
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          a) Not at all, I leave that for you
          b)I don't have a wife
          c)How could she? She does not exist
          d)Refer c
          e)Why should you? I don't even have a wife
          f)Love who? My imaginary wife?
          g)Last time I looked it was big and it worked fine.

          Your post made me think. Next time I will think twice before responding to your posts.

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          1. @FuzzyWarbles
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            in regards to g)

            i hope its benign then mate! You may want to get that thing lanced.

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          2. Bubbles
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Some people are just soooo jealous they aren't in the JPT final. 😛

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            1. Christina.
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              Tell them Bubs

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              1. udit
                • 13 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                +1.

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          3. udit
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Does that mean young Inalize and Chrisitan are illegitimate? 😯 but I was the only person who (C) dempsey why do you want to know about g).?

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      2. Bubbles
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        I think I remember where it was posted, gimme a minute.

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          1. The Light Knight
            • 12 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            i object to your full title

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            1. The Finnisher
              • 12 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              Well in that case, you're wrong, sorry 😛
              Getting nervous? 4 points up and the GW hasn't even started 😉

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              1. The Light Knight
                • 12 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                not at all. i have every confidence that gerrard (c) will come off

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                1. The Finnisher
                  • 12 Years
                  12 years, 1 month ago

                  😆
                  Looks like it will be;
                  Cech (BOL) vs Krul (WOL)
                  Taiwo (FUL) vs Richards (BLA)
                  Simpon (WOL) vs Evans (nor)
                  VDV vs Bale (ars)
                  McClean (wba) vs Sess (wba)
                  Ox (TOT) vs Silva (BLA)
                  Sturridge (BOL) vs Ba (WOL)
                  Dzeko vs Aguero (BLA)
                  Although I'm unsure how you will line up 😕

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                  1. The Light Knight
                    • 12 Years
                    12 years, 1 month ago

                    5 at the back was my thinking yesterday 😉

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                  2. The Finnisher
                    • 12 Years
                    12 years, 1 month ago

                    I see two pointers all round either way 😉

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                  3. The Light Knight
                    • 12 Years
                    12 years, 1 month ago

                    perhaps, but my team will be inspired to victory by their epic theme
                    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NMsExmLc4_w

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        1. Bubbles
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Ah, he's already posted it. Gave me a right old laugh yesterday.

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    3. Mr Sarcastic
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      and it was a reply fail to dear Christina of course.

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      1. Old Schoolᴼˢ “disa…
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Why has rudi pissed you off? Link your previous post btw

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      2. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        🙄

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    4. Old Schoolᴼˢ “disa…
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Reply fail?

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      1. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Any psychiatrists in the house? Fuzzy?

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        1. @FuzzyWarbles
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          i dont understand reposting the same questions. they were asked with no intention of getting a reply to the questions themselves, just a response in general. To post the same thing the next day seems lazy and uninspired. If one is too lazy to have fresh material for a confrontation on the board, then they should inherently be lazy enough to just drop it all together. Cmon mate. I own Sorensen too. Life isnt fair. Pick your battles. You know, the worthwhile ones!!!

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          1. The Light Knight
            • 12 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            is bosingwa banned for 3 matches?

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            1. @FuzzyWarbles
              • 13 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              when did i become the resident bosingwa expert? 😉

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  10. Pinoche
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    What are Aguero's chances of starting the game against Blackburn ?

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    1. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Odds on. He is first choice.

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  11. Scroobius Mac
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    No idea if this has been reported during the deadzone but:
    Richards
    Regarding the knock to his knee he picked up during the match he added: "It's all right. I had an operation on it about two years ago and I tweaked the ligament again, but I should be all right."

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    1. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Oh feck.

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    2. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Where's this from Mac?

      I'm always slightly concerned about tweaked ligaments and other white tissue injuries. Never quite as straightforward as you'd like.

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        1. In Like Flynn.
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Thanks Mac, I've not been trawling through the footie pages much of late.

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    3. @FuzzyWarbles
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      just two start Micah, can you friggin' do that for me please? Then you can be on your merry way.

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  12. TheSteady ¤ Wines th…
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Who do you think will start against Norwich of Welbeck and Hernandez? 🙂

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    1. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      You asked it yesterday also. 😕

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      1. TheSteady ¤ Wines th…
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Yes, but know we now that Welbeck came on in 70th minute in the EL 😉

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        1. HappyAnkit
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Can't understand what you are saying. 😕

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    2. Hank Scorpio
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Welbeck.

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  13. CarelessGenius©
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Sess or McClean to start this week?

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    1. TheSteady ¤ Wines th…
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      IMO both will start.

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  14. FPL Daniel
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Chris you are marvelous, marvelous mate. Your way of thinking about FF is revolutionary IMO. Thanks for the article. Cheers,

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    1. hvsauce
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      So keeping Silva then??

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  15. Pinoche
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Rooney 😛

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    1. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Yes it looks very like him, except it's smiling.

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      1. The Light Knight
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        lol

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      2. HappyAnkit
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        LOL 😛

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  16. Pinoche
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Should i bench Dempsey this week ?

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    1. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I don't think so.

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    2. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I'm playing and praying.

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    3. udit
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Nope

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  17. ManofKent
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Superb article

    Open Controls
    1. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Morning MoK, how are you?

      Seeing you here has reminded me to check the Metro mini-leagues. How is your team doing?

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      1. ManofKent
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Morning - gave up with Metro, haven't looked for months - just sticking to FPL & Texaco.

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  18. Woy of the Wovers
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    A very interesting article. If we can draw any more parallels between Fantasy Football and the Capital Asset Pricing Model then we will be well on the way to developing our own efficient fantasy team. That said, I still need to convince myself that this is a valid basis for looking at fantasy assets. Volatility of returns can sometimes be of way of making points if you can rotate the players "at the right time".

    i.e.
    Player 1 scores 6 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 6 - 6 (Average 6/Risk 0)
    or

    Player 2 scores 8 - 8 - 8 - 2 - 2 - 2 (Average 5/Risk 3)
    Player 3 scores 2 - 2 - 2 - 8 - 8 - 8 (Average 5/Risk 3)

    Even paying a 4pt penalty for the transfer from Player 2 to 3 in GW4 still gives an extra 8 points for a team which has a higher risk.

    Still, one to think about.

    Nice to hear that Valencia will be back soon. I was hoping he might become a nice differential so things are moving in the right direction

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    1. Bubbles
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      ...I just tend to pick the players I think will score the most points at certain times. Hasn't really worked out too well this season though.

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      1. Woy of the Wovers
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        I think a lot of people balance their team between long term and short term purchases. For long term assets you may tend to mind less about volatility of returns (if we ignore subs or captaincy choices).

        For short term purchases, we might look for risk since we are only interested in holding players for a few games.

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    2. Barwood
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Valencia back sharpish is good news, but would we expect another price drop in the meantime? Would think it likely

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      1. Woy of the Wovers
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Think price drops now a fairly harmless. For me, I'm quite happy with a price drop because it means that another 1% of fantasy teams have sold him 🙂

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  19. udit
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Is this horrible grav's week? First ENR now Christina? I Blame you I Captained Dems... Whatever, he had a perfectly nice(Cough) Gravatar before you opened your big mouth.

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    1. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Include your Grav also. 😛

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      1. udit
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        You'll be lynched in England if you say that 😉

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        1. HappyAnkit
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          I am not going there.

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          1. udit
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Maybe oneday.

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    2. Christina.
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      What can I say, I can't afford a sicko getting a hard on while looking at the gravatar of my imaginary wife.

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      1. Bubbles
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        That's a really lovely photo. The pink hat really shows off the massive hole in your head.

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        1. udit
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          -1 , Altho I do like the pink hat.

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      2. DementedFlamingo
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        You making new friends again Christina 😉 I wondered when you would post a portrat grav of the missus... I must says she's better looking from further away 🙂

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        1. Christina.
          • 14 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Howzit DF. I trust you are well.

          Yeah, there has been complaints iro my gravatar(s) so I thought it best to give the missus involved. She ain't that bad really. I mean, would you complain about that tongue?

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          1. DementedFlamingo
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Errrr

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            1. udit
              • 13 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              Ha My thoughts exactly.

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    3. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Look at the top of page[where comment starts] Udiot. 🙂

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    4. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      The Moral of the story is never gamble with your Grav.

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      1. Christina.
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Says the person with the grav of two men kissing.

        😉

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        1. In Like Flynn.
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Haha, Errol was starting to tire, what with his duties on my Grav and the channel 4 afternoon films.

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  20. default
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    No FTs, what do you think?I'm not happy.

    Vorm (lind)
    Taiwo Senderos Santon (clark BAE)
    Silva Dempsey Sess Bale (Beausejour)
    Rooney RVP Sturridge

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    1. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      But I am Happy. 😛

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    2. The Light Knight
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      your team is bad and you should feel bad

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    3. In Like Flynn.
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      It looks OK Default, just don't expect too much from the defence, unless Taiwo gets an assist and Vorm might do well.

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      1. HappyAnkit
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        + CS from New Castle

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        1. In Like Flynn.
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          This is true Happyankit. So all-in-all it could be pretty good.

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          1. HappyAnkit
            • 12 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            I am doubling up on New Castle's defence.

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            1. default
              • 14 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              I swapped Dzeko and Valencia for Beause and Rooney early in the week stupidly. Kinda wish I'd stuck.

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              1. HappyAnkit
                • 12 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                Don't do early transfers.

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  21. Jafalad
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Chris Glover: No 1 Scout.

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    1. udit
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Agreed. How do you like my grav? I took inspiration from you.

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      1. In Like Flynn.
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Where's Pippa? I can't find a drooling smiley.

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        1. udit
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          I care more about the front rather than the back if u know what I mean.

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  22. div
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Need to transfer Lidegaard and have 1.3 in the bank, 0.9 of which will be used for Rooney (depending he doesn't rise until Saturday night.

    Vorm is my other keeper, so Lindegaard >

    1. Schwarzer (rotates good, but already have Senderos)
    2. Mignolet (not great rotation but cheap and have no defence cover)
    3. Sorensen (rotation risk and have no defence cover)
    4. Other

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    1. Damo.
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Prob krul as he rotates nicely with vorm and doesn't have the threat of no game in gw29

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  23. Brada_wba
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Any taker on a 4pt hit to get Mata in here?

    sor

    evans willaimson richards

    moses demps silva bale

    aguero bale rvp

    valencia/bae/kelly

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    1. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      No....

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  24. Rasping Drive
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    All I can say is "Thank f*ck it's'Friday."Been working far too hard recently and have had very little time to spend on here (my wife is happy, at least...) Anyway, splendid article Chris, although when standard deviations start mixing with fantasy football I get the feeling it's getting a tad over-analytical.

    For anyone that saw the game, may I ask how Nani performed last night? It's'him or Mata but I fear for the Spaniard's little pinkie. Ta.

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    1. Tails
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Nani was pretty average / crap to be fair. He also played the full 90mins and Young was subbed earlier around 60mins I think (not sure what this means for the weekend). Nani can always pull it out of the bag though.

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      1. Rasping Drive
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks Tails

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  25. Maxi_Mawoofingtons
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    I wonder if Tevez is fit enough yet? I dont want that rodent spoiling my Dzeko-Augero combo up front this week haha

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    1. TheSteady ¤ Wines th…
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      What about Balotelli?

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      1. Maxi_Mawoofingtons
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        true haha... Im hoping for a 7 - 1 drumming

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        1. Open Controls
    2. Rasping Drive
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      That Mancini is even considering playing that odious little orc is a clear sign that he's' willing to sell his soul to save his skin. I see nothing much has changed since WW2.

      I wish i could get rid of these rogue apostrophes! Fecking Blackberry!!

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  26. matiakez
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Kyle Walker could be one to keep an eye on, you would think attacking returns can't be to far away surely?

    I'm hoping that BAE might tail off a bit points wise and Walker come to the fore??

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    1. The Light Knight
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      i think bae is more dangerous as opposition teams rightside are fixated on stopping bale leaving bae with more space for crosses/shos

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      1. In Like Flynn.
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks Light Knight, saves me saying pretty much the same.

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  27. Tails
    • 12 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Do you guys think Jones is nailed on? Any ideas on the Man U backline for this weekend?

    Thanks in advance.

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    1. Taribo West on a free
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      He's as nailed on as anyone but Evra at the moment, especially with his midfield cameos as well.

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      1. Tails
        • 12 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Thanks goaltastic. Thats sort of what i thought. Am thinking Richards -> Jones so I can do Valencia ->Yaya.

        Already have Kun and Silva.

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  28. @FuzzyWarbles
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    so is vermaelen's position on this map an indication of how far away from a good decision it was to bring into my squad?

    can anyone talk me into playing verm this week over santon, evans or richards? not so much that he is a better bet for the gw, but because my h2h opponent has a very similar team and a 4 point advantage, and is likely playing evans, richards and krul. so right now its pretty much my sorensen vd his cahill +4 points. i hope to pick a different captain and make up the necessary ground that way, but there's probably a 50/50 chance we will be identical there as well. i suppose there is always a chance stoke indeed keep a CS and chelsea concede and verm gets me 1 point, but with sorensen playing yesterday, i have to have at least some doubt begovic could start. lindy is my other keeper so i would obviously be screwed with my only differential. I think verm has to play, but for who?

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    1. udit
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      You want me to talk you into playing verm?harrumph... (assumes deep voice) Look at my pendulum Fuzzyy left, right, left, right, left, right, your eyes must also go left, right, left, right, left, right, You are now under my control.. you are hypnotized fuzzy, now jump up on the table bend over put all 4 legs up and start wagging your tongue like a dog.

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      1. @FuzzyWarbles
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        dont mention canines around my hat!!!

        i dont think i need to be talked into playing as much as i need to be convinced who to bench. Id think evans, but my opponent technically doesn't have him yet, so he could actually be a differential as well.

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        1. udit
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Evans' 2 points will be no more different than anyone's else's two points so scratch out the differential bit, Man United probably won't keep a CS and neither will Ars but i'd play Verm for his attacking potential.

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          1. @FuzzyWarbles
            • 13 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            i actually do fancy utd for a decent cs chance, more than chelsea for example if that means anything. And evans is capable of the odd BP if utd can keep a cleanie. But verm over evans is probably best. Just still uncertain.

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            1. udit
              • 13 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              Norwich generally score..

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    2. @FuzzyWarbles
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      c'mon lads!! surely a situation like this should make for good discussion. regardless of players involved, it is a matter of strategy and philosophy in these h2h situations. im sure many have been in similar positions before, and it would be great to hear everyone's way of going about it.

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  29. Sess!
    • 13 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    My current defence:
    Senderos Kelly Richards Evans Caulker

    Have 2 FT's, £1.1m in bank. Should I do:

    Senderos > Cahill (would be 3 week punt till GW 29)
    Caulker > Santon

    or just

    Senderos > R.Taylor

    Or something different?

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    1. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      2nd one

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    2. Loweowl
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      I like option 2

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      1. Sess!
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Cool, cheers lads. Could just do that and then play Evans Richards R.Taylor at the back. Just don't like the fact that taylor's not 100% nailed on or could be subbed early if things not going their way.

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    3. udit
      • 13 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      2nd one.

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  30. Loweowl
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    12 years, 1 month ago

    Help needed this week

    Team is:

    Vorm, Migno

    BAE, Evans, Cahill, Simpson, Enrique

    Dempsey, McClean, Bale, Silva, Valencia

    Adebayor, Ba, RVP

    Thinking of the following:

    1. Valencia > Pilkington & Ade > Aguero
    2. Valencia > Siggy & Ade > Aguero
    3. Valencia > Pilkington & Ade > Rooney
    4. Valencia > Siggy & Ade > Rooney
    5. Any other?

    Thoughts?

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    1. HappyAnkit
      • 12 Years
      12 years, 1 month ago

      Valencia is fine and will be back in GW 27.

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      1. Fratboy
        • 13 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        hopefully

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        1. udit
          • 13 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          + juan

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          1. HappyAnkit
            • 12 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            Juan Mata?
            I hope he doesn't play.

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            1. udit
              • 13 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              + 1 = juan

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      2. Loweowl
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        12 years, 1 month ago

        Forgot to say I have 2 free transfers

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        1. HappyAnkit
          • 12 Years
          12 years, 1 month ago

          Transfer out Enrique.

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          1. Loweowl
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            12 years, 1 month ago

            and do what?

            Ade has got some bad fixtures coming and City have 2 easy home games

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            1. HappyAnkit
              • 12 Years
              12 years, 1 month ago

              If you have funds then Ade>Kun or else Bent [he has nice fixtures].

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              1. Loweowl
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                12 years, 1 month ago

                I could do Valencia to Yaya and Ade to Bent for the next few weeks until Valencia is back

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