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Community August 13

Value Over Replacement Player (VORP)

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I have been pondering over a concept known as ‘Value Over Replacement Player’ in the Fantasy Premier League game for some time now, after discovering the points/million concept. Value Over Replacement Player, or VORP, for short, is a method of valuing players based on an alternative.

The formula for VORP is as follows:

(Total Points – Replacement Points) / (Price – Replacement Price)

In this instance, I have used the members projections for my ‘total points’ and replacement points. Alternatively, you can use last season’s points. However, I feel this does not give the best representation of ‘value’ for the 2014/15 season, especially considering we do not have points totals for players like Chelsea’s Diego Costa and Arsenal’s Alexis Sanchez.

Because I am using the members projections, it means the data will be only available to members of the site for the time being. I know this isn’t convenient, so for this reason I will be releasing data for non-members. Please note that the calculation process takes a lot of my spare time, and the data will not be as accurate. Following the release of this information, I will make another chart, using an average of both, which again will only be avalaible to members, since it uses the members projections.

If you would like to become a member of this site, full details can be found here

So, using the projections, and the way players have been priced this season, I have been able to produce an interactive table whereby you can view the VORP of (*almost) every player listed in the game this season.

I have posted the link within the description of the members table, as it is the only way to restrict the content to members. If the table gets leaked, I will remove it immediately, so please think before you spoil it for everyone.

The interactive table link can be found in the members table here

I hope you all put this information to good use and enjoy it. I look forward to seeing what you can come up with using this information. I will add to it gradually.

*Please note, the way in which these are calculated means that players in the lowest price bracket cannot be listed, as it is mathematically impossible. It would mean dividing something by 0. Because of this, other individuals and I are attempting to come up with a similar concept which includes all players listed in the game.

Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ Captain of Team Brazil for the 2015 FIFFSA world cup. Dale a tu cuerpo alegria Macarena; Que tu cuerpo es pa' darle alegria cosa buena; Dale a tu cuerpo alegria, Macarena; Hey Macarena! (Ay!) Follow them on Twitter

24 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Ginkapo FPL
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Calculate the average VORP score for those with prices greater than "0". Then interpolate back to "-0.5" and recalculate with the new starting point?

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    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      The spread appears to follow very closely to the distribution of PPG value amongst players. Not really surprising, but it a far more accessible stat.

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      1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
        • 11 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        Agreed, it probably is. Some of the players higher up have a high VORP because of price. This means you will want to look a bit lower down and see the best value high priced players. It gives a good representation of some value for money players, and also shows those we should avoid.

        PPG however doesn't take into account players like Schurrle or Jovetic or even Aguero who score highly when they play but miss a lot of the season for one reason or another.

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    2. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Sorry, I don't understand what you are asking/telling me to do here.

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      1. Ginkapo FPL
        • 12 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        It is about the problem of minimum price players not being included.

        You have created a graph of VORP price against VORP score. If you draw a line of best fit you can artificially shift the origin from (0,0) to (-0.5,?). Using the new origin you can include all players in the graph.

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        1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          I see what you're saying. I will have a look at this tomorrow. It will, of course, be a lot more complex than the initial design.

          I do not view this as a huge problem though, as the cheapest players in every position are not guaranteed of starts, and are anyone's guess as to how well they will do.

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          1. SwissWavey
            • 10 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            If I understand Ginkapo correctly he's suggest setting the base defender price as 3.5 instead of 4.0 and similar for other positions. This would give workable results but I don't think it gives us what we really want.

            I think VORP is the way to calculate value for money, so I'm not dissing it, far from it, but I'm trying to think of ways to make it better. So far I can see a few of the problems, it's the solutions that are proving a bit more elusive.
            For example, if we pick our team purely on value for money we might end up picking a lot of cheap players and sitting smugly with a team full of 'bargains' and £15m in the bank.

            I'm playing with a few different calculations, but I'm not happy with them yet. If I get a breakthrough that's worth sharing, or even an idea, I'll come back to you.

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            1. Ginkapo FPL
              • 12 Years
              9 years, 8 months ago

              The counter to value is the "captain".

              The simplest way to avoid a team well under budget is to pick three or four players who are going to score highly and you are willing to captain. In this respect their price doesnt really matter.

              And then value comes into play to try and build the 11-12 players in the supporting cast.

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  2. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    How To Use The Interactive Table:

    It may seem a little bit complicated at first, with dots everywhere. It really it quite simple, you just need to know where and what to look for.

    • The higher up the chart, the higher the VORP
    • The higher the VORP, the better the value
    • The further to the right of the chart, the higher the price of the player and vice versa
    • You can select a team from the left side and view players from that team only to narrow down the search. You can also filter by position, I hope to add more filters soon
    • Hover over a dot to see more information about it
    • Double click in an area to zoom in and see more accuratly where they are spread
    • Press the home button in the top left to return to the original view

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    1. timPgoodwin
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      So for instance 'that' player at 66.4 VORP offers the best value?

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      1. timPgoodwin
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        For a midfielder, sorry didn't realise it was filtered to show just Mids.

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        1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          Yes, that is essentially how it works, but it is based on members projections right now so it might now be very accurate.

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    2. Camp No No
      • 10 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Very nice toy, have to say. Thanks.

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  3. Camp No No
    • 10 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    The only minus is that you decided to use the projections that are utter rubbish.

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    1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Of course, they are not accurate to a certain extent. However, I will be adding to this by creating one based on last years points totals which is the old fashioned way of doing VORP. There will be a comparison table and then a third one with the averages.

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      1. Camp No No
        • 10 Years
        9 years, 8 months ago

        Waiting for those latter tables, because the insanity of projected points causes a serious worry about how useful this table is. Which is too bad, because the idea is excellent and I really waited for this.

        You will never be able to do an accurate projection of particular players' success in future, so as a general guide it would be worth more to see the actualised VORP from last season - and that preferably with both this and last seasons starting prices, to see how much value there was in different price brackets last season.

        I know, it takes a lot of time for you to do this, an I'm not complaining. I just wished you would have done it that way first because it seems more useful.

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        1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
          • 11 Years
          9 years, 8 months ago

          Okay, I am beginning to create these tables. Do you have information of players starting prices last season, because I dont have the time to do it all manually.

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          1. Ginkapo FPL
            • 12 Years
            9 years, 8 months ago

            I hate to say it, but I dont know anyone who has that information. I tried to find it myself.

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  4. The Gambler.
    • 14 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    this sounds too far! stats are a guide but...........

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    1. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
      • 11 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      It doesn't tell you who to pick, not at all. This is a guide, and nothing more.

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  5. Rödallegabomb ᴿᴮ
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    Non-Member's chart has been produced for those interested, using last season's scores:

    https://public.tableausoftware.com/profile/rodallegabomb#!/vizhome/VORPBasedon1314PointsByRodallegabomb/Sheet1

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  6. The Abusement Park
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    This is a nice toy, I like it, thanks! Obviously it has it's flaws, as does every single prediction tool, but still pretty nifty 🙂

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  7. tm245
    • 12 Years
    9 years, 8 months ago

    That table is amazing! What an effort. Have it bookmarked and it will be fun to play with it.

    How did you arrive at your baseline for replacement? My long winded post in the wrong spot was getting at that so apologies again for the mistaken identity of your articles, but did you use the entry level players like an uber defender or a 4.5m mid as your replacement baseline, or did you use the best available option like an Eriksen or Nasri if you went for Sterling?

    In our game a replacement is actually the sixth best midfielder or the fourth best forward, for example, whereas in baseball the franchises use VORP to compare players with replacements who would be the 800th best player. If a superstar gets hurt, then a replacement must be called up from the minor league so that is the valuation. WAR (wins above replacement) is now used to measure how many more projected victories a superstar is providing than the lower level player who replaced him would produce. They have even determined that one win in a season costs a franchise about $4-5 million in payroll!

    Back to our game, am just wondering if the equation might need to be
    (Sterling-Siggurdson)/(8.5-6.0)?

    Or does
    (Sterling-Marney)/(8.5-4.5)
    Give the best approximation?

    I love this stuff and am really impressed with the table and hope that further discussion and analysis can emerge, so thanks again for the great work.

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    1. tm245
      • 12 Years
      9 years, 8 months ago

      Here is a link to my reply failure post if anyone wants to know more about how baseball uses VORP:
      http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2014/08/14/the-true-value-of-players/?hc_page=1#hc_comment_7890118

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