The Optimal Dead Team Squad 2014/15

The Optimal Dead Team Squad (ODTS) is the 15-man squad that is chosen in Gameweek 1 and remains in place, with no management in terms of transfers, wildcards, captain changes or bench changes. All changes that take place are automatic, such as vice captains replacing captains when injured. In previous seasons the ODTS  has often put Fantasy managers’ efforts to shame by registering a score that could have won the Fantasy Premier League (FPL).

With this in mind I wanted to look to see if this year’s ODTS was good enough to take on 2014/15 FPL winner Simon March.

According to analysis by FFScout regular Ludo the 2013/14 ODTS would have beaten that season’s champion Tom Fenley. However, my calculations suggest that 2014/15 was the year the dead team was left in the shade by the week-by-week tinkerings of a Fantasy manager.

Creating the ODTS

How do we work out the 2014-15 ODTS? We need players who score a lot of points  and are good value for money.

The FPL Overall Dream Team (which contains all the highest total points scorers in a valid formation) is a good place to start:

Fabianski (SWA) 151

Ivanovic (CHE) 179 – Terry (CHE) 177 – Jagielka (EVE) 142

Hazard (CHE) 233 – Sanchez (ARS) 207 – Silva (MCI) 191 – Cazorla (ARS) 168

Aguero (MCI) 216 – Kane (TOT) 191 – Austin (QPR) 176.

Most of these players were well ahead of their rivals on total points, and it was only necessary to downgrade three of these (Lucazs Fabianski, Phil Jagielka and Santi Cazorla) in order to bring it within budget.

This is probably easier than usual because of the success of the two bargain forwards Harry Kane and Charlie Austin, and because no club had more than three players in the Dream Team.

Captaincy: The best combination was Sergio Aguero (C) & Harry Kane (V). Aguero missed five Gameweeks (16-20), and Kane scored 48 points before doubling in these, which beat Hazard’s 44. Hazard only missed one Gameweek, so would have been a less effective captain. The Costa (C) & Aguero (V) combination scored slightly more but was far too expensive.

Goalkeepers: Fabianski/Tom Heaton (166 points for 9.5) was a good try, since Burnley man Heaton scored 15 points in the only Gameweek that Fabianski missed. And Heaton with any old 4.0 (150 points for only 8.5) was good value.But Costel Pantilimon/Heaton (173 points for 9.0) turned out to be the bestm option. Sunderland stopper Pantilimon scored 123 in only 27 Gameweeks, and Heaton scored 50 in the other 11.

Defence: Branislav Ivanovic and John Terry’s high scores place them firmly in the ODTS. In the search for a third defender the choice is between Phil Jagielka and Southampton’s Nathanial Clyne, who both scored 142 points. It was worth noting that Jagielka made the Dream Team because his final cost was 5.8 compared with Clyne’s 5.9, but Jagielka had started at 5.5 and missed only one Gameweek, averaging 3.8 points per game (ppg), whereas Clyne started at 5.0 and missed three Gameweeks, averaging 4.1 ppg, so it was Clyne rather than Jagielka who made the ODTS.

Midfield: Eden Hazard, David Silva and Alexis Sanchez’s scores were in a league of their own, which makes them a shoo-in for the ODTS. But at a starting price of 8.5 Santi Cazorla is too expensive. The other candidates were Sigurdsson, who scored 154 at 4.8 ppg for just 6.0, missing only six Gameweeks. Others are Spurs man Nacer Chadli (160 FPL points at 4.6 ppg for 6.0, missing four Gameweeks), Liverpool’s Jordan Henderson (162 at 4.4 ppg for 6.0, missing two Gameweeks) and West Ham’s Stewart Downing (160 at 4.3 ppg for 5.5, missing one Gameweek). The six missed Gameweeks for Sigurdsson, which allowed higher scoring auto-subs to come off the bench, eventually swung it for him as the Swansea man takes the final midfield slot in the ODTS.

The Bench: This left 14.0m for our other three bench players. First substitute is Ryan Bertrand (140 points at 4.1 ppg for 5.0m, missing only four Gameweeks). He nearly made the starting eleven and scored 87 points in 20 auto-sub appearances. Arsenal’s Hector Bellerin (77 points at 3.9 ppg for 4.5) would have only made five auto-sub appearances but contributed 28 points during that run. Burnley’s George Boyd (110 points at 3.1 pph for 4.5, missing two Gameweeks) was the best 4.5 midfielder and was available whenever required, scoring 33 in eight auto-sub appearances.

The 2014/15 ODTS

So the Optimal Dead Team Squad that resulted was:

Pantilimon (4.5m, 123)

Ivanovic (7.0m, 179) – Terry 6.5m, 177) – Clyne (5.0m, 142)

Hazard (10.0m, 233) – Sanchez (10.5m, 207) – Silva (9.0m, 191) – Sigurdsson (6.0m, 154)

Aguero(C) (12.0, 216*2) – Kane(V) (5.0m, 191 + 48) – Austin (6.0m, 176)

Heaton (4.5m, 50) – Bertrand (5.0m, 87) – Bellerin (4.5m, 28) – Boyd (4.5m, 33)

RESULTS And Further Thoughts

This ODTS would have scored 2,451 points and finished second overall, 19 points behind the champion. Others may be trying to improve on this, but I would be very surprised if it could be improved sufficiently to catch FPL champion Simon March.

The ODTS is also pretty similar to the Fantasy Football Scout Team of the Season, the only differences being Pantilimon instead of Forster and Sigurdsson instead of Bertrand. We were able to vote for four defenders and four midfielders in constructing the FFS Team of the Season , so I assume that Bertrand was included because he received a higher percentage of the votes for defenders than Sigurdsson did of the votes for midfielders. This may have been because there was more competition for the fourth midfielder spot than for the fourth defender one, but I suspect that many of us would rather play 3-4-3 with Bertrand on the bench than 4-3-3 with Sigurdsson on it. Perhaps next year for the FFScout Team of the Season poll an initial vote to opt for the community’s favoured formation could take place.

Note: I would like to thank Billy Gilmore for suggesting the Pantilimon/Heaton goalkeeper combination. At the time of writing Billy Gilmore was also conducting research that suggested Daryl Janmaat of Newcastle may have scored more as a first substitute than Ryan Bertrand. I’m sure he’ll keep us posted on that in the comment section of this article.