Members

Tales of the Expected – Lukaku vs Kane

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

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1,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. PlayPercentage
      4 months, 10 days ago

      I can't see Pep rushing Aguero back.
      Next three PL games are against Stoke, Burnley and WBA.
      Not the best sides to face if you are recovering from a broken rib and don't want a physical battle.

      1. Fantasy Gold
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Could easily get 60 vs Stoke to get him ready for midweek

      2. Wild Rover
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        4 months, 10 days ago

        No way did he have a broken rib if he's even in contention

    • New Post
    • Lucio's Limelight
        4 months, 10 days ago

        Is Ritchie worth keeping?

        1. CSF150473
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          4 months, 10 days ago

          He's on spot kick duties if I'm not mistaking?

        2. thomashl
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          4 months, 10 days ago

          I don't think so, given that Shelvey has snatched a large piece of his set-piece responsibility. Richarlison a much better pick, along with the Choupo

      • pelle9
          4 months, 10 days ago

          Pick 1... ?

          a) silva
          b) sterling

          Tnks

          1. Albert_Luque
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            4 months, 10 days ago

            Silva most nailed if you have the cash.

        • Gregg Wallace
            4 months, 10 days ago

            So if Aguero is back what's the front 3? Sterling-Kun-Sané? Sterling-Kun-Jesus? Need to know wether I should invest in both Sané and Sterling

            1. Albert_Luque
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              4 months, 10 days ago

              No idea. The only person that knows is Pep. Even if aguero says hes back, will he start? No one that you've stated above is a nailed on, certain starter.

            2. shotgunnufc
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              4 months, 10 days ago

              look at theirs minutes played so far when both were fit - sterling

              1. Gregg Wallace
                  4 months, 10 days ago

                  Sterling for sure, but debating whether Sané as well

            3. Albert_Luque
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              4 months, 10 days ago

              Blimey, this Aguero news throws a right spanner in the works. This is why Man City are such a frustrating fantasy football team, unparalleled wealth of attacking options but picking one of their players is like a weekly Russian Roulette. Makes you appreciate the certainty of starts that Lukaku offers.

            4. shotgunnufc
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              4 months, 10 days ago

              kun kane morata front 3 to have in a gws time?

            5. The Asset
                4 months, 10 days ago

                Lets see if Kun gets through Friday night. Squeeze are playing down the Colston hall I fully expect to see him down the front belting out Cool for Cats....

              • Misteak
                  4 months, 10 days ago

                  KdB + Long > Sterling + Luiz (-4) ?

                • 30DaysOfHa(C)ard
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  4 months, 10 days ago

                  Trying again:

                  Lloris Elliot
                  Alonso, Monreal, Jones, Lascelles, Mbemba
                  Eriksen*, Silva, Jese*, Kante*, Carroll
                  Kane, Lukaku, Wood

                  1FT
                  0,9 ITB

                  A: Eriksen, Jese & Kante -> Hazard, March + 4,5 - 5,9 mid
                  B: Eriksen, Jese & Kante -> Sane, Sterling & March (0,2 ITB)
                  C: Other?

                  1. nalassimi
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    4 months, 10 days ago

                    Hazard March for me

                • nalassimi
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  4 months, 10 days ago

                  First time posting. I would appreciate some feedback. I really dont know if I should use my wildcard or not. I have 412 points and trust in the team. I just think I need some chelsea coverage instead of Mkhi but it will be at the cost of losing some of other premium players like DDG and Jesus.

                  MY team as it stands with 2.2 in the bank. I already transferred out Morata for Jesus.

                  DDG - Elliot
                  Dawson - Lejuene - Kolasniac - Cedric - Dunk
                  Mkhi - Richarlsion - Choupo - Atsu - Carroll
                  Lukaku Jesus Kane

                  This is what Im thinking

                  Elliot - Fabianski
                  Jones - Davies - Clark - Ward - Dunk
                  Hazard - Sterling - Richarlison - Chuopo - Carroll
                  Lukaku - Kane - Vardy

                  Cheers.

                • Abusive_Sgt_Daelrhos
                    4 months, 10 days ago

                    On WC, any obvious transfers right away? 1.2 ITB

                    Foster, Eliott
                    Alonso, Monreal, Davies, Mee, Rangel
                    Alli, Coutinho, Silva, Brady, Romeu
                    Lukaku, Jesus, Hemed

                    Cheers!

                    1. GreenShark1
                        4 months, 10 days ago

                        I'd lose Rangel, Alli, Brady, Romeu and Hemed.

                    2. poulteren
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      4 months, 10 days ago

                      Hi all,

                      PLEASE please please help me put my mind to rest. Big wager on the line!

                      I own Jesus upfront BUT do I:

                      A.) Sterling, Silva, Hazard with Maguire at the back

                      B.) Fabregas, Silva, Hazard with Stones at the back

                      c.) swap out Jesus for Lukaku and have Fabregas, Silva and Stones at the back

                      Thanks in advance!

                      1. AD2110
                          4 months, 10 days ago

                          A

                          1. poulteren
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            4 months, 10 days ago

                            thanks

                      2. Scotty B
                          4 months, 9 days ago

                          1 FT & 0 ITB

                          Fabianski
                          Bellerin Cedric Jones Alonso
                          Salah Eriksen Ritchie
                          Morata Kane Rooney

                          Elliot Shaqiri Carroll Tuanzabe

                          Really want a City but not Jesus as he is not certain to start.
                          Should I go with Morata > Abraham and get a good mid in?