Members

Tales of the Expected – Lukaku vs Kane

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

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1,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. The Tinkerman
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Chances of starting this GW?

    A) Jones
    B) Atsu

    1. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Pressers tomorrow I have both players myself

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A) High
      B) no idea

  2. Numb
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Aguero to start and Jesus rested this weekend then?

    1. Reedy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I would break my own ribs laughing

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Jesus could be rested yeah 🙂

      1. HamezMace
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        For who?

        1. Numb
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Aguero

          1. HamezMace
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            Serious?
            From what I've read he starts back training with the group tomorrow at the earliest, no way he's fit for the weekend, he cracked a rib right?

            1. Ronnie Hotdog
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              6 years, 5 months ago

              Man City have put up a video on youtube today showing Aguero in training. He looks to be ok.
              https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lg90j-WjIQo&t=0s

    3. Krionos
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Either Aguero did crack ribs as stated and he will NOT play at all, or it's all bullshit and he didn't really injure himself, in which case I think chances are high both of them will play.

  3. ONE PUNCH MAN
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    when is sterling rising?

    1. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Tonight.

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Predicted in just over 6 hours.

      1. ONE PUNCH MAN
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        should I do mkhi to sterling then?

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          If Sterling wasn't rising, would you do it?

          1. ONE PUNCH MAN
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            was going to do it anyway,just wanted to wait for city pressers just in case.

            1. TorresMagic™
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 5 months ago

              Depends how much you value 0.1 info wise.

              1. ONE PUNCH MAN
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 5 months ago

                might as well do it. important for my future transfers. cheers mate.

        2. Red Dagger ✪
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Yes

          1. ONE PUNCH MAN
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            thanks mate.

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      needs some agreement in the Brexit talks

      1. ONE PUNCH MAN
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        way to go then.

    4. FPL Kangaroo
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      2.15am

  4. French Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Bottomed
    Hazard on WC yay or Nay ?

    1. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      on a WC I would do it yes.

    2. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yay.

  5. Henning
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    2 ft

    Elliot Foster

    Davies Kolasinac Yoshida Lascellec Zanka

    Silva Eriksen Mkhitaryan Gross Choupo-moting

    Kane Lukaku Abraham

    Should i do Mkhitaryan and Kolasinac to Sterling and Monreal?

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Mkhi to sane

  6. Turns
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    G2g?

    Fabianski
    Naughton - Cedric - Maguire
    Alli - Miki - Salah - Carroll
    Kane - Lukaku - Vardy

    Subs: Elliot - Jones - Mbemba - Chalobah

    1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      gtg

    2. THFC4LIFE
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Nice team

    3. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Needs City.

    4. Turns
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Ta fellaa

  7. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Will Aguero be wearing a chest mask?

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      *bullet proof vest

  8. Turns
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Mistake on last post. g2g?

    Fabianski
    Naughton - Cedric - Maguire
    Alli - Sterling - Salah - Carroll
    Kane - Lukaku - Vardy

    Subs: Elliot - Jones - Mbemba - Chalobah

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah, GTG

    2. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Ok now has City. G2G.

      1. Turns
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks chaps

  9. gilean
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Answers appreciated
    Should I get rid of Mane in draft?
    Could get Fabregas in. Other midfielders are Ozil, Pedro, Richarlison and Hazard

    1. Emre Can Pie
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I am getting rid. I would get Fabregas if I could.

    2. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I would probably keep him in the Draft. I have him and I'm holding. My other mids are Sterling, Eriksen, Ritchie and Martial.

    3. gilean
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Cheers guys

  10. jaybradlights
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Pick two for the Draft:
    A) Ritchie
    B) Arnautovic
    C) Shaqiri

    So much flair I'm struggling to think rationally...

  11. zotter
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Right starting xi?? Could feasibly bench boost this week !

    Foster
    Kola. Alonso. Bavies. Ward
    Richarlison. Silva. Salah
    Firmino. Kane c. Jesus

    Elliott. Naughton. Atsu. Carroll

    1. Naboo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Go for the bench boost!

  12. Totti
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    elliot
    kolasinac otamendi naughton
    eriksen mikhitaryan silva groß
    kane lukaku wood

    krul atsu cresswell hünemeier

    A) mkhi to sane or sterling
    B) mkhi to shaquiri/Choupo and wood to vardy (-4)
    C) other suggestion

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B but to Richarlison

      1. Totti
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        leave mkhi?

        1. Totti
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          ohh sorry
          i was mistaken
          thanks

  13. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    The most surprising thing from a FPL perspective this international break is how Alli and Hegazi haven't dropped in price.

    1. johnnys balloons
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah, Alli was in around 35% of the teams in gw1. Now he is in less than 27% but still at 9.5 ! I guess its because WC transfers out dont count

  14. Lecky Legs FC
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Choose one of the following options for this GW:

    A) Mkhi > Silva ( -4 hit)

    B) Mkhi > Sane ( -4 hit)

    C) Play Mkhi don't take a hit

    1. Bellerinmondo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      C

    3. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

      1. Lecky Legs FC
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Ok A it is cheers lads.

  15. Bellerinmondo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    A. Salah > Sterling
    Free

    B. Keep salah
    Kola > cheapie
    Chalobah > Sterling
    -4

    ?

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B

    2. Lecky Legs FC
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B

    3. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B. easy.

  16. RAFA THE GAFFA
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Coutinho or Silva likely to Rise before the deadline?

    1. Big boy Bowen
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Fplstatistics.com

      They're at around 34 and 17 as not long risen so highly doubt it.

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Doubtful

  17. Big boy Bowen
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    SCENES on here if Aguero starts on Saturday

    1. HamezMace
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      He cracked a rib two weeks ago, no chance he plays Saturday.

      If Jesus is rested it'll be for Sterling.

      1. Krionos
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Did he really crack a rib?

  18. H Dog
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Do you guys think Danilo is going to play?

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Don’t think so

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yeah he should play, but not sure on minutes

    3. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      pass

  19. skindogg
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    any news on Kolasinac ?

    1. Numb
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      No, Wenger didn't know anything as he's only just got back from Internationals

  20. Bobby Digital
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Best defender 5.1m and under?

    1. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      To play every week? Cedric

      If you can rotate, I Like Burnley. Lovely home fixtures, where they at reliable, and tough away fixtures, where they are rubbish so it minimises bench headaches

      1. Bobby Digital
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        They clash this week though

    2. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Maguire.

    3. ZeBestee
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Jones, Maguire, Ward

  21. gilean
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Kevin Long, Mkhi, Mounie, Lukaku -> Otamendi, Silva, Jesus and Quaner for -8. Yes or no?

    1. Reedy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Honestly I'd just content myself with Mkhy -> Silva of that lot.

      1. gilean
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        I need to get rid of Mounie though. Haven't produced anything since GW 1 and marked orange

        1. Reedy
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          I'm not sure but wasn't there a tweet or something about Mounie being in contention again? Worth checking out

        2. Boxwoods
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Mkhi > Silva
          +
          Mounie > [Best budget striker you can afford]

          If you need funds for the Mounie replacement, could consider Sterling or Sane instead of Silva.

  22. French Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Rate my WC Team

    Fab / Elliott
    Bavies / Ward / Wimmer / Fernandez / Mbemba
    Haz / Sterling / Silva / Choupo / Surman
    Kane / Jesus / Vardy

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Better than most. 8/10. But you will have a big problem, GW 10.

      And your goalkeeper:

      BRI/NEW: EVE 79 CPL 222 SOU 27 BOU 193 STK 178 WAT 250 CPL 213 LIV -138 LEI 236 EVE 88 BUR 219 WAT 241 - 8 light blues
      OR:
      NEW/BOU: sou 4 CPL 222 bur 15 BOU 193 HUD 198 WAT 250 BUR 215 SOU 23 LEI 236 EVE 88 LIV -142 whm 100 WHM 103 - 6 light blues
      OR:
      BUR/NEW: WHM 60 CPL 222 bur15 BOU 193 SWA 188 WAT 250 wha -47 lei -185 LEI 236 STK 131 bri -219 whm 100 - 5 light blues
      OR:
      SWA/NEW: HUD 27 CPL 222 BUR 15 BOU 193 bur-188 WAT 250 wha -47 stk -159 LEI 236 EVE 88 ars -304 whm 100 - 4 light blues

      1. French Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Doosra the voice of knowledge !
        According to your stats what's the best rotation pair
        Of GKs for 8.5 then ?

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Ryan/Elliot.

          1. French Gooner
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            2 CS in 7 for Brighton. Really don't fancy Ryan :/
            Meh

            1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 5 months ago

              OK. 🙂

              I am doubling up - Duffy and Ryan.

          2. Billingstad Broilers
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            What are your thoughts about Krul, may he replace Ryan?

            1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 5 months ago

              Unlikely. He has not played for nearly two years, and Ryan is doing well.

              http://members.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/my-stats-tables/view/1867/

              1. Hairy Potter
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 5 months ago

                He played for Alkmaar last season, but he does look very much backup at Brighton.

    2. Numb
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I would steer away from Sterling and Jesus, both are rotation risks again now
      Vardy been playing on the wing, may have lost pens to Mahrez now
      Mbemba probably won't play now

      1. Numb
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        I'd want to keep Lukaku for next week, everyone will be captaining

        1. French Gooner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Personally I m captaining Kane ahead of Kaku majority of GWs - Ok kaku had Huddersfield but the fixtures coming up are hideous for united. Now is the time to ditch rly

      2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Eh? 🙂

        1. Numb
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Eh what?

          1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            Well, your info on Sterling is wrong, Jesus is unlikely, and Vardy is showing form again.

            Nobody knows about Mbemba.

      3. French Gooner
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Mbemba is dead wood basically
        I m currently on Lukaku Kane jesus up top but makes the midfield so weak using the "double pivot"

  23. goriuanx
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    5 - Romelu Lukaku has failed to land a shot on target in five of his last seven games against Liverpool.

    🙄

    1. You want sum?
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Whilst playing for Everton...

    2. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I never pay much heed to these kind of historic stats, especially when the player has moved clubs. However in this instance it conforms to what I want to hear so I'll gladly accept!

      1. Thiga
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Haha this 😆

    3. Reedy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      😀

      10 - number of different teammates Lukaku will have surrounding him this time

      1. goriuanx
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        He'll get chances for sure if Utd decide to try and attack.

        1. Reedy
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          In fairness I don't see this being a goalfest - but yeah, a Lukaku goal wouldn't be a huge surprise

      2. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Knowing Mourinho in big games, those other ten teammates will be entrenched in their own box...

        1. Reedy
          • 13 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          This is true!

        2. French Gooner
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          This

    4. FPL Kangaroo
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Absolute pointless/irrelevant stat...

  24. Legohair
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Firmino to Vardy worth to -4?

    1. You want sum?
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      What is this hype around Vardy?

      1. Numb
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        He's about the same price as Firmino

    2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Nearly. Touch and go.

    3. Pork Pie Sausage Roll
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I'd say yes. Vary in form, has nice fixtures, is definitely on pens, and only has domestic stuff to worry about. Firmino has none of those things

      1. You want sum?
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Touche.

    4. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Meh it's 50/50

    5. Numb
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Nah

    6. Legohair
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Only need to decide which pair is better,lukaku&vardy or morata&lacazette.

    7. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Don't think you will get anything out of the move this week. Long term you might.

  25. The Gambler.
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Anyone on WC going with Holding?

    1. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      No. A transfer waiting to happen, and fixtures aren't that good

    2. Jersey
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      no

  26. FPL Pillars
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Hi lads,

    DDG / Elliot
    Bavies Yoshida Mee Dawson / Mbemba
    Mhki Eriksen Carroll / RLC Chabolah
    Kane Lukaku Laca

    1 FT 1.2mil itb

    Was thinking Mhiki to Sterling?

    And hope Yoshida starts, anyone know what Japan line up will be vs Brazil?
    If he plays that no way he starts.

    1. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Lots making that exact move this week.

  27. burkeyoa
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Off topic but does anyone know where you can watch the full FPL show rather than the short videos they put out on the official FPL twitter?

    1. goriuanx
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Type FPL Show in the videos tab on the site.

    2. The Gambler.
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      There's a full show?

      1. TorresMagic™
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Yeah, starts in 15.

  28. Delhidynamo
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    RMWCT

    Pope Elliot
    Alonso Azpi Jones Davies Ward
    Sterling Silva Coutinho Richarlison King
    Jesus Kane 4.5

    I'm quite satisfied with that

    Will be tough to get Kun when he's fit again though

  29. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    FFS Injury tab at the top of the page.

    2nd opinion http://www.physioroom.com/news/english_premier_league/epl_injury_table.php

  30. kysersosa
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    RMT please

    Bavies, Luiz, Maguire (Ward, Mbemba)
    Fabregas, Silva, Sterling, Richarlison, (Carroll)
    Vardy, Jesus, Kane

    1.2m ITB - for easy switch to Aguero/Morata

    Thanks