Members

Tales of the Expected – Lukaku vs Kane

Our next members’ article of the week starts a series of pieces based on our expected goals (xG) data, which is scheduled to be available from Monday.

In this first analysis article, we take time out to assess the two most popular forwards in Fantasy Premier League, Romelu Lukaku and Harry Kane, checking out their numbers both home and away over the first seven Gameweeks.

Both had had somewhat contrasting starts to the season.

Lukaku has settled in seamlessly up front for the Red Devils, scoring in all but one of his seven outings.

Whereas both of his double-digit returns have arrived at Old Trafford, all three of Kane’s were delivered on the road.

The Spurs striker has bagged two goals in each of his last trio of road trips but has yet to find the net at his temporary home, Wembley Stadium.

We take a close look at the data now to get a better idea of how they should be performing in accordance with the expected goals (xG) and expected assist (xA) statistics.

We have also added in our own new metric, expected goal involvement (xGI) to incorporate both goals and assists so far.

If you are new to the notion of expected goals, here’s a of handy explanation from the guys at OptaJoe.

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1,541 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Scotty B
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Fabianski
    Bellerin Cedric Jones Alonso
    Salah Eriksen Ritchie
    Morata Kane Rooney
    Subs:Elliot Shaqiri Carroll Tuanzabe

    Which one? Got to be done tonight due to prices
    A Jones/Ritchie/Morata > Ward/Sterling/Vardy -8 (exact funds)
    Or
    B Morata/Rooney > Jesus/Chicharito -4 (exact funds)

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Plenty are selling Chich so it's weird that you are thinking of buying.
      A out of those.

    2. BAMBAA
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Don't get that Chicha fellow, I have spent two weeks now trying to get him out of my team.

  2. Denis Tueart on the wing
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Will Fernandinho play this GW

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Fernandinho only played eight minutes off the bench for Brazil in the early hours of Wednesday morning, and should retain his place his front of the back four.

      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        One of the best differentials of the week. The other is Iwobi.

        1. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Do you have both?

          1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            No, not any more. To my great joy, I managed to fit in Silva.

            1. TorresMagic™
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • Has Moderation Rights
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 5 months ago

              Nice 🙂

              1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                6 years, 5 months ago

                🙂 I have a proper midfield, now.

                1. TorresMagic™
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • Has Moderation Rights
                  • 14 Years
                  6 years, 5 months ago

                  So the rest is rubbish 😛

                  1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 14 Years
                    6 years, 5 months ago

                    Well, what do you think?

                    WC, GW 8:

                    Ryan
                    Otamendi, Monreal, Duffy
                    Eriksen, Coutinho, Silva, Sterling(vc)
                    Kane(c), Vardy, Rashford

                    Elliot; Stephens, Lascelles, Mbemba … 0, 0.2 ITB, TV: 101.8, SV: 100.9

                    1. Denis Tueart on the wing
                      • 14 Years
                      6 years, 5 months ago

                      Should I get rid of Lukaku on WC and get in Rashford for a better midfield, yours is mega-bucks

                      1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                        • 14 Years
                        6 years, 5 months ago

                        Maybe. 🙂

        2. Denis Tueart on the wing
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Thanks to both,

  3. Krafty Werks
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    A toughie but which of these defenders would you bench this week?

    A - Ward home to West Ham.
    B - Maguire home to West Brom.
    C - Cedric home to Newcastle.

    Thanks.

    1. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. Team Bobcat
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Unfortunately neither. Gun put to my head....a or b

    3. Denis Tueart on the wing
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Ward seems to be in vogue, but WH must be scoring soon

    4. Aston-villain
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B

    5. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Currently on A or actually thinking of changing my defence from :

      Bavies, Stones, Maguire, Cedric (Ward)

      to

      Bavies, Maguire, Van Dijk, Ward (Wimmer) and keeping 0.8 ITB for surgery the following week....make more sense? Thanks for replies all.

  4. BrockLanders
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Evening chaps.

    Should I sell Ake for Bavies -4??

    1. Nani R U OK? R U OK ? R U O…
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      i would want to see your other defenders first

      1. BrockLanders
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Kola, Yosh, Dawson & TAA

    2. Team Bobcat
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Nah

    3. Team Bobcat
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I would shift dawson to a budget option for the time being. Davies may ne rested this weekend. Doubt it but you never know. Owner

  5. Melania
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    (A) Sterling & Dave
    (B) Silva & David Luiz

    1. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B

  6. eoan
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    What happened to Fuchs? He was such a great pick 15/16

    1. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Leicester died

    2. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      So were Schmeichel, Simpson, Huth, Morgan, Albrighton and Mahrez.

      1. eoan
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Fuchs was their highest scoring defender and the best option then.

  7. DV8R
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Which one?

    A) Kola -> Luiz (-4)
    B) Play Lowe

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Or maybe Otamendi instead of Luiz

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Agree Otamendi over Luiz

      1. DV8R
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Would you take the hit?

        1. dunas_dog
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Yes Kola possibly got injury and not looking so attacking with Sanchez in side

    3. TaiwanHC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Why would you get rid of Kila now?

      1. DV8R
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Injury doubt?

        1. TaiwanHC
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          He will play.

  8. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Team A or B on WC- which do you think best ? 2 very different sides. On A for now but midfield not so strong as B which would normally be. 4-4-2

    Team A
    Pope
    Azpilicueta Cedric Fernandez Davies
    Hazard Sterling Richarlison
    Kane Jesus Vardy

    Elliot Ward Davis RLC

    Team B
    Fabianski
    Alonso Cedric Davies Ward
    Eriksen Sterling Fabregas Richarlison
    Lukaku Kane

    Elliot Joselu Wimmer RLC

    1. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

    2. Team Bobcat
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I prefer b

    3. Naboo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A with Wimmer over Fernandez

      1. dunas_dog
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        If Wimmer then would need to play Ward and Pope home to West Ham this week which could be fine

  9. F4L
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Those Kun quotes not send a shiver up the spines of Jesus/Sterling/Sane owners?

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      No.

      1. F4L
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        he wont play this GW, but sounds like he will be ready for Burnley though

    2. eoan
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Jesus was never a long term pick. Once Morata is fit, he's out. I am worried about Sterling but Pogba and Richarlison are options to go to in a couples weeks.

    3. Team Bobcat
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      It has done enough to deter my salah sterling move....need to keep space for that man

  10. BrockLanders
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Hazard or Coutinho then?

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Coutinho.

    2. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      one of the Spurs boys for me. Coutihno out of those 2

      1. Flynny
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Hazard

      2. BrockLanders
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Love Coutinho but fear for Hazard may become essential

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          GW 10.

        2. F4L
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          idk. I'd like to see Chelsea improve and show that they can deal with their tough CL group first before taking the plunge

    3. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Hazard

    4. Fire Chief Moe
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Hazard

  11. Team Bobcat
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Bottomed
    Best budget replacement for Hegazi...

    a) Simpson
    b) Wimmer
    c) Holding
    d) Ward
    e) Mee

    Davies Otamend Naughton Mbemba blank

    Cheers

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Mee

      1. Team Bobcat
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        He is the one I would pick. Good taste...

  12. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Who do the cows support?

    1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Uddersfield.

      1. Reedy
        • 13 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        It's true. I hear them cheering Mooy on all the time.

        1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          We should write xmas crackers.

          1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 5 months ago

            Yeah. You can Dunk the crackers in the milk ...

            1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
              • 6 Years
              6 years, 5 months ago

              We are not hiring at this present time.

              1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 14 Years
                6 years, 5 months ago

                😆

    2. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      The team playing Swansea.

      1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Just a smeg too late. 🙂

  13. Drogba Legend
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Current squad:

    Fabs

    Kola - Azpi - Jones - Naughton
    D Silva - Atsu - Salah
    Kane (C) - Morata - Jesus

    (Elliot - TC - King - Hune)
    1 FT
    1.4 ITB

    A) Morata > Vardy
    B) Morata & Atsu > Vardy/budget forward & Hazard (if budget forward) / Sterling/Fabregas/etc
    C) Atsu/midfielder > upgrade
    D) Save

    Help appreciated.

    1. BrockLanders
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

      1. Drogba Legend
        • 6 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        How long until you think Morata is back? 3 Chelsea players is a must.

  14. camarozz
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Hear me out please.

    I want sterling so
    Antonio âž¡ sterling??
    Need 0.4 million for this so

    Suttner to Mbemba for -4 to fund this??

    I know Suttner has OK fixtures but I can play Ryan instead of Elliot for those fixtures and bench Mbemba if I want.

    Thoughts appreciated.

    1. Squeazy
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Mbemba didn't even make the squad for the last game though...

    2. Naboo
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      You'll kick yourself when Antonio scores

  15. Kingtekkerz
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Chicha, Mkhi, Kola-->Vardy, Fabregas, Otamendi (-4)

    Is this worth the hit?

    1. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      aye, for sure

  16. Kalou
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    What to do with Lacazete?
    A.hold( roll ft)
    B.sell for vardy
    C.chill have a beer.

    1. F4L
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Watford missing a bunch of CBs again. Just go with C

    2. Reedy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A & C

    3. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      C

      1. Kalou
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Thanks all !

    4. Team Bobcat
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I am on c. Owner might need a fee beers

  17. Garlicbread
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Hey folks, help needed choosing which WC team to go for if you'd be so kind......

    A)
    Fabianski, Elliot
    Bavies, Azpi, SWard, Wimmer, (Suttner or other 4.4)
    Eriksen, Silva, Sterling, (RLC, TCarroll or similar)
    Kane, Jesus, Vardy

    B)
    Fabianski, Elliot
    Bavies, Azpi, Jones, SWard, (Wimmer)
    Silva, Sterling, Coutinho (RLC, Lewis Cook)
    Kane, Jesus, Vardy

    I know there similar but the losing of Eriksen for this week is kind of worrying me! Thanks!

    1. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      B as you will want to change Eriksen for Coutinho next week anyway so save the need for transfer

  18. F4L
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Alonso not being overlooked big time on WC with all these Azpi picks?

    1. Team Cruel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Ban incoming soon.

      1. F4L
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Conte will have a word in his ear like he did with Diego last season

    2. makaveli123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Need every penny 🙂

      1. F4L
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        not with Shaqiri Richarlison Choupo-Moting all knocking about 😛

    3. Delhidynamo
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      You can have both

    4. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Last years man.

      1. F4L
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        I think he'll exceed last years points

    5. Squeazy
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I think so. One's a defender, the other's a midfielder that gets clean sheet points.

  19. SuperMario
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Fabianski - Elliot
    Davies - XXX - XXX - Mee - Wimmer
    Silva - XXX - Richarlison - Choupo - RLC
    Kane - Vardy - Jesus

    A. Cedric, Luiz & Hazard
    B. VVD, Alonso & Sterling (leaving 0.7 in the bank)

    1. SuperMario
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Any final WC feedback greatly appreciated..

    2. dunas_dog
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      A

  20. Demel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Best move?

    Bertrand & Morata > Cedric & Jesus

    Foster - Elliott
    Bertrand - Jones - Trippier - Alonso - Mbemba
    Eriksen - Silva - Ramsey - RLC - Carroll
    Kane - Morata - Vardy

    1. Delhidynamo
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Cedric might drop tonight

      And Jesus could rise lol

      1. Demel
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Cedric on -44% on FPL Fix.

        1. Delhidynamo
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          -98.3 on fplstats

        2. TorresMagic™
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • Has Moderation Rights
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          FPL Fix is useless for price changes.

  21. BAMBAA
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Still trying to get rid of Chicharito. Is Abraham ok option, would free up some fund too..

    1. Sandy Ravage
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Who would you rotate Abraham with?

      1. BAMBAA
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        This would be Brady / in couple of weeks Richarlison.

    2. Demel
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Joselu is better imo.

      1. F4L
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        yeah this. Newcaslte's fixtures are pretty decent as well

        1. Kalou
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 5 months ago

          Ville thinks so too!

      2. BAMBAA
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Cheaper better, I will consider this too. Thanks!

    3. FPL Bielsa
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Prefer Joselu more nailed and nice fixtures too.

      His stats on chances good too, might actually start taking some soon !

  22. rdamjan
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    I have Stephens (4.5 mid) in my team on WC. Or better go with RLC?

    1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Go to transfers page, set to mids at 4.9, and then set to minutes played.

    2. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      RLC is better. Much more potential of goals/assists if needed. Plus, Palaces fixtures look good going forward. Zaha back too.

    3. Jersey
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      RLC for his potential. when he's played, he looked like he should be priced at 7.0

      starting next GW, he should be on for 90 every game.

  23. bel24
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    2FT - Do I just leave alone.... Any suggestions

    Gomez Elliot
    Bavies Jones Kiko Lowton Dunk
    Hazard Coutinho Ritchie Choupo King
    Jesus Kane Vardy
    0.8 itb. It'd be only midfield I would tinker with if at all ???? Cheers

    1. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      If your just going to burn a transfer maybe swap Gomez out. Dicey upcoming fixtures and they are without Prodl and Kaboul again.

      1. bel24
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Sound. Never thought of GK's . Ta

  24. MiguelAngel
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Happy Friday Eve lads. What to do here? 1 FT. £1.3m itb

    Eliot 4.0
    Davies Monreal Jones Naughton Mee
    Silva Salah Atsu Carroll RLC
    Kane Lukaku Lacazette

    Thinking..
    A) Laca > Jesus
    B) Laca & Atsu > Vardy & Sterling -4

    1. Squeazy
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      I'm not a big fan of taking hits but B would tempt me.

      1. MiguelAngel
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        Me too dude. Anyone else?

  25. CFC96
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    On wc, need help to choose one thats gtg
    a) eliott
    fernandez - ward - otamendi - davies
    eriksen - salah - choupo
    lukaku - kane - jesus
    krul/rlc/surman/mbemba

    b)same as a but eriksen to sterling, choupo to richarlison, and mbemba to jones or improve krul

    c) same as a but eriksen to sterling, choupo to silva and jesus to vardy?

  26. dannyhesse
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Team A or B on WC?? Expecting Jesus or Sterling or both to rise tonight but can't decide.

    Team A
    Fabianski
    Otamendi Maguire Van Dijk Bavies
    Sterling Coutinho Hazard Richarlison
    Jesus Kane
    Elliott Ward Carroll Ladapo £0 ITB

    or

    Team B
    Fabianski
    Stones Maguire Van Dijk Bavies
    Sterling CoutinhoD Silva Richarlison
    Lukaku Kane
    Elliott Ward Choupo Ladapo £0.1 ITB

    1. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Basically i prefer a 4-3-3 over a 4-4-2 formation with preference for Vardy over Coutinho for the upcoming run of fixtures...but if you've defo decided you wanna go with 4-4-2 then A.

  27. Kaneyonero
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    What's the story on Morata? Morata out for Jesus for a hit?

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      No one knows under the press conference tomorrow which is frustrating as I want to do that move but might be priced out tonight

    2. Sandy Ravage
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      sometimes no news is good news

  28. JogaSemmedo
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    If you're on Wildcard are you keeping Lukaku?

    Yes or No

    1. sambyy
      • 13 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Nah

    2. CFC96
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      yes

    3. makaveli123
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      Yes. Will swap for Morata after Huddersfield

      1. Naboo
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 5 months ago

        This

    4. Krafty Werks
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      No.

  29. CFC96
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    On wc,
    A) jesus, eriksen, choupo and mbemba(sub)
    b/ vardy, silva, sterling and lascelles(sub)

  30. Monkey Hanger
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 5 months ago

    Are fplstats likely to be wrong two days in a row about Morata dropping in price?

    1. TorresMagic™
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 5 months ago

      More than 35K out today so likely drop.