Market Forces – Gameweek 10

Uncertainty is the buzzword in the current Fantasy Premier League market, as Pep Guardiola’s rotation once more led to widespread face-palming in Gameweek 10.

The feeling is only reinforced by the tricky match-ups on offer in the Gameweek ahead.

Under normal circumstances, we’d be grateful for a home fixture for Spurs with Crystal Palace – it would surely lead to heavy Harry Kane transfers and a captaincy. However, with the striker’s starting role in doubt following his Gameweek 10 absence, the market mirrors the dilemma we face heading into Saturday’s deadline: he’s been ranked in the top five for both transfers-in and transfers-out ever since.

Continuing our series of weekly articles, we at whogottheassist.com assess the patterns and behaviours in the Fantasy Premier League market and give our view on the viability of the transfers taking place.

Sane is the Man

Having played all but seven minutes of the last five matches, Leroy Sane looks to be Pep Guardiola’s current new favourite, with the rest of his attacking midfielders having their minutes managed.

Flying slightly under the radar a couple of weeks ago when his team-mate Raheem Sterling was all the rage, the German winger now seems to have been identified as the next must-own City target.

He’s seen over 163,000 transfers-in – almost 100,000 more than any other player this Gameweek.

This much appears to make sense. Sane was the most creative player on the pitch for the Citizens and came away with a goal and an assist from their visit to The Hawthorns, providing owners with a 12-point haul. He also goes into the Gameweek 11 clash with Arsenal on the back of four successive double-figure tallies in home matches.

Indeed, Sane has now registered an eye-watering four goals and five assists in his last four outings and is the top scorer in FPL.

It seems the leading man making way for Sane is his team-mate David Silva, as managers make the sideways move.

Arguably, this is a far more questionable tactic. It may be partly because many have already tripled up on City assets, but also because the Spaniard’s early season consistency has waned, with just one return from his last four Gameweeks.

Accordingly, Silva to Sane is the most popular direct trade at present, with over 44,000 managers making this transfer.

Henrikh Mkhitaryan is another being sold in high numbers to acquire Sane – more than 52,000 managers have dropped him so far, with 18,000 swapping to the German.

In parallel with Silva, but perhaps to a greater degree, the Armenian has faded dramatically after a bright start. He has now failed to register attacking returns in five consecutive Gameweeks and is losing pitch-time on or around the hour-mark.

It’s also worth acknowledging City’s unsung hero from Gameweek 11 at this point. At only 5.1, Fernandinho has also been getting involved in the all-out attack regime and now has two goals and two assists to his name.

That has been enough to convince some to fill a City slot with the deep-lying midfielder, who has gained more than 32,000 transfers-in. However, this is surely a flawed exercise, with Fernandinho’s defensive role meaning goals and assists may be the exception rather than the norm.

Confusion reigns with forward heavy hitters

While Sane is attracting acquisitions in midfield, managers seem at a loss with their premium forward slots.

Sergio Aguero, Gabriel Jesus, Harry Kane and Alvaro Morata all figure highly in the lists for both transfers in and out, encapsulating the current confusion in the market.

Spurs arguably have the best fixture of the Gameweek, meaning that Kane has attracted over 39,000 early transfers.

However, injury doubts – perhaps now calmed by today’s return to full training – has also led to a further 53,000 sales.

Mauricio Pochettino’s press conference today indicated that these managers might live to regret that manoeuvre, with Kane seemingly likely to return to the fray and get a run at a Palace defence that could be without Mamadou Sakho once again.

Notably, Kane’s acquisitions have increased markedly since the press conference this afternoon, indicating that the striker’s ownership may now start increasing once again , while sales slow.

Elsewhere, Aguero’s no-show against West Brom, after playing 120 minutes in the EFL Cup midweek, has also been a source for erratic market behaviour.

Combined with the match-up against Arsenal, the Argentine has lost over 31,000 owners. But this is counterbalanced by 36,000 transferring him in. Again, evidence that managers seem very unsure on where to invest their big striker funds.

Despite starting at The Hawthorns, Aguero’s team-mate Gabriel Jesus failed to muster a single shot on goal, adding to the alarm surrounding his current Fantasy stock.

Over 47,000 managers have now sold Jesus, with 8,000 making the direct trade to Aguero and almost 10,000 moving to Morata. However, there is again a sizable counter-movement in play as 14,000 have signed him up.

Chelsea’s Morata scored more than most big-ticket strikers this weekend with his modest five-point return, meaning he has attracted big interest this Gameweek. Over 36,000 acquisitions make him the fifth most bought player.

Nonetheless, over 22,000 have removed the Spaniard ahead of the crunch visit from Manchester United on Sunday.

Around all this confused activity, Romelu Lukaku’s ownership has managed to remain fairly stable.

Some 25,000 have sold the United striker after his three Gameweeks without a goal. However, with 20,000 acquisitions ahead of the weekend’s deadline, Lukaku’s ownership remains at the 52% mark.

While he has hit a dry spell in terms of goals and big returns, there has been no clear and established contender to steal a significant slice of his managers.

Abraham value turning heads

Tammy Abraham has surely benefited from the lack of faith in the premium striker options.

The Swansea City man is continuing to attract a great deal of attention and, at only 5.8, represents strong value.

He returned an unexpected assist away at Arsenal in Gameweek 10, helping to prompt another 66,000 managers to swoop ahead of vastly improving short-term fixtures.

However, it is a testament to the chaos in the current forwards market that it only took a five-point return to elevate him as the second most bought player.

Some of those selling on Kane and Jesus are turning to Abraham to free up funds. This could be contributing to a trend toward bulking up in the midfield, with the likes of Sane, Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah or even Eden Hazard planned as the destination for the liberated cash.

Jamie Vardy and Roberto Firmino also both scored strongly at the weekend, offering further alternatives to the top bracket forwards.

Over 30,000 managers have drafted in Vardy following his eight-point return from a goal and two bonus, and some 34,000 have seen fit to invest in the streaky Firmino, irrespective of the pair’s recent goal droughts.

More points in Jones’ locker

Another clean sheet for the Manchester United defender, plus all three bonus, has brought Phil Jones back to prominence as the man to own in Jose Mourinho’s stubborn backline.

Still only 5.3, he remains a bargain and seems vital to United’s defensive solidity – they’ve only conceded two goals in the ten matches that Jones has completed, while they capitulated at Huddersfield after he was forced off early in Gameweek 9.

Managers appear confident enough to ignore the perpetual anxiety over his fitness (stoked in part by his own manager), with over 61,000 managers snapping him up ahead of Gameweek 11.

The route to Jones seems to be through selling an array of different options, such as early season favourite Ahmed Hegazi and also Spurs’ uncertain starter Kieran Trippier.

Despite the visit to Chelsea looming, United have “parked the bus” effectively in other big matches, meaning that these new Jones investors will be expecting immediate returns, even from the testing Stamford Bridge encounter.

The swift fall of last week’s flavour of the weekend, Nicolas Otamendi, is also worth noting among defenders. His zero-point return against West Brom has elicited purchases (18,000+) and sales (19,000+) in almost equal measure.

Could this lack of faith in the combative defender be due to his Gameweek 10 tally? More likely he is being used as a makeweight to free up a City slot and funds to enable a swoop for Sane.

In Conclusion

Managers often complain about an early-season template forming, or even that they are spoon-fed their transfer decisions by fixtures and form. But the current market forces indicate that this certainly isn’t the case right now.

Up front, there is clearly mass confusion, with the selection of premium forwards seemingly interchangeable and little long-term confidence on show.

Kane’s return could change that and introduce some much-needed stability.

Midweek Champions League fixtures may also offer us some further clues as to Guardiola’s intentions with Aguero and Jesus – again, a much-needed ingredient which would steady transfer activity.

But should the uncertainty continue, it will inevitably slow down the market in the short-term as managers pause for clarification before committing to trades.

In the interim, the consensus seems to be that Jones is the man to own in defence and Sane the midfield favourite.

However, with some tough fixtures this weekend, some managers may choose to hold fire and roll their transfer ahead of the upcoming international break.