The Watchlist Updated – Forwards

After taking stock of the latest changes to the goalkeeper, defender and midfielder rankings over the past few days, we conclude with analysis of the forward options.

The Watchlist rankings can be found in your sidebar on desktop, or via your slide-in menu on mobile or tablet.

These highlight our current thinking on player selection for each position, listing the factors behind each player’s given rank.

We’re keeping faith in Harry Kane at the top of our standings.

Spurs manager Mauricio Pochettino has handily allayed any injury fears following Kane’s withdrawal from England duties, with the forward apparently fit for the Gameweek 12 derby trip to Arsenal next weekend.

Kane has now blanked in five of his six matches at Wembley in light of the 1-0 win over Crystal Palace but his form on the road has been relentless, with two goals in each of his last three away fixtures.

And that can only be good news for his 38% owners, bearing in mind that three of Spurs’ next four (ars WBA lei wat) are away matches.

Kane has averaged 10 points per match (ppm) on his travels, compared to 4.2ppm at home, while significantly, he registers 1.5 big chances per match away from home, compared to just 0.7 at Wembley Stadium.

Priced at 12.8 in Fantasy Premier League, the home blanks are a major concern given that he’s the primary captaincy option in most Gameweeks, while Spurs’ Wembley fixtures (WBA STK BHA SOT WHU EVE) are very kind for the next few months.

But still way out in front in almost every key statistic – shots (59), efforts in the box (39), attempts on target (22) and penalty area touches (72) – his potential far exceeds any other FPL forward.

As Spurs have already qualified for the last 16 of the Champions League, Pochettino could now take the opportunity to rest his star man in Europe, with the Premier League schedule becoming far more congested from late-November onwards.

The man on the move at the top of the rankings is Chelsea’s Alvaro Morata (10.3), who has been the best served FPL forward in terms of big chances this season, with 13.

A seventh league goal in the 1-0 victory over Manchester United was followed by a strike for Spain against Costa Rica as Fantasy interest gains momentum – he’s the most popular target in attack ahead of a trip to West Brom, with over 95,000 transfers in.

Another positive regarding Morata’s Gameweek 11 outing was that it was the first time he’d completed a full 90 minutes since Gameweek 6, with his match sharpness now up to scratch following a recent hamstring complaint.

The Blues’ upcoming schedule is the other key factor stacked in Morata’s favour.

After the Gameweek 13 trip to Liverpool, they play five of their following eight matches at home (SWA NEW whu hud SOT eve BHA STK), and avoid all of the current top six during that spell.

Eden Hazard’s (10.6) spot-kick duties make him the obvious alternative for those looking to invest in the Blues’ attack, though Morata makes a convincing case – he’s scored or assisted 71% of his side’s goals when on the pitch, more than any premium forward.

A promising short-term schedule (NEW BHA wat) means that Manchester United’s Romelu Lukaku (11.5) holds firm.

Without a goal in his last seven in all competitions for United, the Belgium international has suffered from a tough run of fixtures and has been stifled by Jose Mourinho’s tactics.

But a brace for Belgium against Mexico over the break could reignite his confidence levels ahead of a fine short-term schedule.

Over 224,000 managers parted company with Lukaku ahead of Gameweek 11 and, despite the fixture swing, he is once again the most sold forward since Saturday’s deadline, shedding a further 78,000 owners.

The next three matches are pivotal for the Man United forward, who still resides in 47% of FPL squads, to prevent perhaps even more significant sales, with Morata the major attraction.

The never-ending concerns over rotation somewhat dents the appeal of Manchester City duo Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus.

Pep Guardiola hasn’t started the pair together since Gameweek 5, favouring two from Leroy Sane, Raheem Sterling and, to a lesser extent, Bernardo Silva to flank one of the two central strikers.

Aguero does lead all FPL forwards for ppm with 8.4, though, and looks to again be the first-choice penalty taker after netting from the spot in the 3-1 win over Arsenal.

The Argentine also outperforms the 10.5-valued Jesus in terms of minutes per goal attempt (20.9 to 27.5) this season, so between the pair, he currently is our preferred option.

But many may baulk at a price of 11.8 for a player who still remains a rotation risk, and investing in two Man City midfielders (Sterling and Sane are our preferred picks) is perhaps the more prudent way to tap into their prolific attack.

The case for that approach will certainly be stronger if Morata continues to thrive and Lukaku gets back among the goals.

Looking at the budget options, Swansea City’s Tammy Abraham (5.9) is still our favoured route, despite blanking at home to Brighton & Hove Albion in Gameweek 11.

Like Morata, he has been directly involved in 71% of his side’s goals when he’s been on the pitch. Abraham also leads all FPL forwards for points per million value with a score of 8.1.

A trip to Burnley and a home meeting with Bournemouth over the next two Gameweeks appear reasonably promising, though given that he is ineligible to face parent club Chelsea in Gameweek 14 and faces Man City in Gameweek 17, his stock could soon plummet.

Glenn Murray (5.8) is the budget forward rising to challenge Abraham.

Over the last three Gameweeks, he has scored four goals and is top for shots in the box (eight) among forwards.

The Seagulls are unbeaten in their last four, and face home fixtures against Stoke City, Palace and Liverpool’s dodgy away defence over the next four Gameweeks.

Over 49,000 FPL managers have brought in the forward ahead of Gameweek 12, though he’s still part of just 2% of squads.

While Abraham remains the only valid option for Swansea, the likes of Pascal Gross offers a very strong alternative to Murray in the Seagulls’ midfield.

The mid-price battle between Jamie Vardy and Roberto Firmino is still evenly poised.

Over the last four Gameweeks, both players have registered six penalty box shots and two big chances apiece.

Unfortunately for the Liverpool forward, his stock suffers due to the phenomenal form of Mohamed Salah, while Vardy’s record against top six sides, having scored against Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool, means upcoming home fixtures against Spurs and Man City should not be discounted.

Around that spell, trips to West Ham United, Newcastle United and Southampton, along with further home match-ups against Burnley and Palace, look inviting.

One goal in eight hardly helps Firmino’s cause, yet Liverpool’s forthcoming run (SOT CHE stk bha EVE WBA bou) suggests that he cannot be ruled out.

Over in the blue half of Merseyside, Oumar Niasse (4.9) replaces Dominic Calvert-Lewin (5.0) as our preferred budget pick for Everton.

Handed his first 90 minutes of the season by David Unsworth, Niasse’s effort against Watford took his tally to four goals in the last six Gameweeks ahead of six favourable fixtures (cry cot WHUM HUD new SWA) in the next seven Gameweeks.

Further down, Josh King is worth monitoring on the strength of Bournemouth’s fixtures.

On the back of a morale-boosting 1-0 win at Newcastle, they face home clashes against Huddersfield Town, Burnley and Southampton, along with trips to Swansea and Palace, in the next five.

Priced at 7.0, he’s expected to recover from the back complaint that saw him withdraw from Norway’s recent internationals.

King has just one goal to his name so far and understandably sits in just 1% of FPL squads, but that schedule offers hope he can go some way towards reprising the form that delivered 16 goals and three assists in 2016/17.