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The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

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1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Epic Fail 墅 ⚽ Bolivia G…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    2 months, 15 days ago

    D'you think Poch will keep faith in Llorente for the weekend after his hattrick and 2 assists tonight?

    1. LarryDuff
        2 months, 15 days ago

        in my opinion regardless of how he plays Kane is still first choice

        1. Fantasy Gold
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          2 months, 15 days ago

          lol

      • Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        2 months, 15 days ago

        Oh, yes! 😉

        1. Epic Fail 墅 ⚽ Bolivia G…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          2 months, 15 days ago

          Cheers. Just did Kane -> Llorente for a hit before the inevitable price rise.

          1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            2 months, 15 days ago

            😯 Aaargggh! 😆

            1. Gnu - Bolivia Giroud :- Met…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              2 months, 15 days ago

              😆

      • ZeBestee
          2 months, 15 days ago

          Maybe playing him together with Kane. Kane should start.

      • ZeBestee
          2 months, 15 days ago

          Regret not ditching Sane for Coutinho before the price changes.
          Have Salah and Sane currently. Do:

          1) Sane 》Coutinho
          2) Sane 》Sterling

          1. Chicken Bhuna FC
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            2 months, 15 days ago

            1

            1. ZeBestee
                2 months, 15 days ago

                Thanks. I will wait till Friday and make the move.

          2. Strchld
              2 months, 15 days ago

              Change that D.Silva play weeekend?

              1. Netley Lucas
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                2 months, 15 days ago

                Many think he's not injured at all

                1. Strchld
                    2 months, 15 days ago

                    Yep, would like to be "sure". Im i gonna let him go for a hit or keep.

              2. Scotty B
                  2 months, 15 days ago

                  That's Sane on the bench Sunday then

                  1. _sidney_will
                      2 months, 15 days ago

                      He's played literally every game for City that he's been fit for, he's Peps fave

                    • Ode
                        2 months, 15 days ago

                        Are you actually serious?

                        1. Scotty B
                            2 months, 15 days ago

                            Yeah he was awful as well Sunday and he's in the B team

                            1. _sidney_will
                                2 months, 15 days ago

                                With that theory do you think Jesus will be on the bench too? 3/4 of Sane Sterling Jesus Aguero are going to start on Sunday

                        2. Mateja
                            2 months, 15 days ago

                            From now to the end of season what do you think how much games CalvertLewin will start? in % answer 🙂

                            1. Reinhold
                                2 months, 15 days ago

                                65%

                              • Epic Fail 墅 ⚽ Bolivia G…
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                2 months, 15 days ago

                                %? I'm not Carol Vorderman.

                                He'll start about 7.

                              • Kuntheman(c)-★Balegium★
                                  2 months, 15 days ago

                                  Don't rely on a 5.1 striker mate haha

                                  1. Epic Fail 墅 ⚽ Bolivia G…
                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                    2 months, 15 days ago

                                    Especially when they 'should' buy a striker in Jan.

                                  2. Mateja
                                      2 months, 15 days ago

                                      Well if he would start atleast 60% of games i would pick him and dont have headaches about 3rd striker 🙂

                                  3. GAMBIT
                                      2 months, 15 days ago

                                      I'm 100% sure Big Sam will get a striker in Jan if that helps you any

                                      1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                        2 months, 15 days ago

                                        Yep. He is gonna buy Andy Carroll!!! 😆

                                        1. GAMBIT
                                            2 months, 15 days ago

                                            Yikes. Might as well try to get Kevin Nolan out of retirement too.

                                            1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                              You haven't heard? 😉

                                            2. Gnu - Bolivia Giroud :- Met…
                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                              England in waiting apparently.
                                              According to his chairman who is new to football ownership.
                                              Already marking himself down as King of the clowns imo.

                                              1. Gnu - Bolivia Giroud :- Met…
                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                2 months, 15 days ago

                                                Darn.
                                                *England manager*

                                                1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                  2 months, 15 days ago

                                                  😀

                                                  1. Dreams - Bolivia Giroud
                                                      2 months, 15 days ago

                                                      Hello there senior player and manager. Looks like you fellas are having a nice time here.

                                                      1. Gnu - Bolivia Giroud :- Met…
                                                        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                        2 months, 15 days ago

                                                        Just chillin'
                                                        Captains lurking somewhere - think he's at the bar!

                                                        1. Dreams - Bolivia Giroud
                                                            2 months, 15 days ago

                                                            He's always at the bar when he's posting here I reckon.

                                                            1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                                              😆

                                                            2. Gnu - Bolivia Giroud :- Met…
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                                              Well done on top score this week, edged the victory I reckon. 🙂

                                                            3. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                                              Yep. Bolivian Bandit!

                                                            4. Dreams - Bolivia Giroud
                                                                2 months, 15 days ago

                                                                Got lucky with the Couti pick. I'm just relieved that I didn't fook up the midweek game with my terrible score.

                                            3. Athletico Timbo
                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                              • Has Moderation Rights
                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                              They'll but someone in Jan and that'll be it.

                                          • Reinhold
                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                              I've realized I have got to get Kane in for Jesus

                                              To fund that, either I go Vardy to a max 7.2 million forward, or Otamendi to a max 4.4 million defender.

                                              Suggestions as to what and whom?

                                              1. Chicken Bhuna FC
                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                2 months, 15 days ago

                                                Why would you be getting kane in right now.. bit silly. Stick with vardy

                                                1. Reinhold
                                                    2 months, 15 days ago

                                                    Not really silly, is it? Next two fixtures are great. Beat Stoke 4-0 three times in a row, where he scored six. Great captaincy option imo

                                                2. Ode
                                                    2 months, 15 days ago

                                                    Kane & Spurs look bad, get him for the Dgw

                                                3. Fantasy Gold
                                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                  2 months, 15 days ago

                                                  Seems a bit silly of Klopp to play his full allocation tonight considering the game on Sunday.

                                                  An injury to one of Cout/Mané/Salah/Firmino would make the decision look a tad silly

                                                  1. Kuntheman(c)-★Balegium★
                                                      2 months, 15 days ago

                                                      Not as silly as if he were to play a rotational squad and lose

                                                      1. Klopptomist
                                                          2 months, 15 days ago

                                                          This

                                                      2. GAMBIT
                                                          2 months, 15 days ago

                                                          We want to top the group to avoid Barcelona so they can't come to Anfield and tap up Coutinho

                                                        • Clump
                                                            2 months, 15 days ago

                                                            Disagree. Champs league qualification at stake.
                                                            We could cope without 2 of the above at the weekend.

                                                        • Fantasy Gold
                                                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                          2 months, 15 days ago

                                                          As an Alli owner, I’m not feeling too good that he’s playing tonight with mainly second string players.

                                                          Time to ship him out if he is crap tonight I guess

                                                          1. Chicken Bhuna FC
                                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                            2 months, 15 days ago

                                                            Don't be silly. He's missed first few games of champions league and there's nothing like a goal from him tonight to get the momentum going again

                                                          2. ZeBestee
                                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                                              Yeah there are other better cheaper options. Alli has regressed a bit this season unfortunately

                                                          3. Knuckles the one who Knocks
                                                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                            2 months, 15 days ago

                                                            How many West Ham and Spurs players are people planning to get for the DGW?

                                                            I am thinking Hart / Sanchez / Cresswell / Kane and one more

                                                            1. Netley Lucas
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                                              More than none and less than two 😆

                                                            2. Epic Fail 墅 ⚽ Bolivia G…
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                                              Between 3 and 6.

                                                            3. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                                              1 & 3.

                                                            4. I Member
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                                              Just Kane and a goalkeeper I think. 48 days between games, rotation will be fierce. Alli and Eriksen would have to show some serious form for me to even consider ditching the midfielders I have now.

                                                              1. KingOfLuck
                                                                  2 months, 15 days ago

                                                                  48 days should be enough for professionals

                                                            5. COK3Y5MURF
                                                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                              2 months, 15 days ago

                                                              Kane 100% blank this weekend

                                                              1. Fantasy Gold
                                                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                2 months, 15 days ago

                                                                Four goals

                                                            6. john terrys dog
                                                                2 months, 15 days ago

                                                                New article
                                                                Find it yourself I ain't a guide dog

                                                                1. Doosra - ☭Bolivia Giroud…
                                                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                  2 months, 15 days ago

                                                                  Woof.

                                                              • Daviek212
                                                                  2 months, 15 days ago

                                                                  Which two would you pick for this weekend?

                                                                  Richarlison (bur)
                                                                  Ward (WAT)
                                                                  Naughton (WBA)

                                                                  1. Pat Bonner
                                                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                    2 months, 15 days ago

                                                                    Bench ward

                                                                • LaCazettio
                                                                    2 months, 15 days ago

                                                                    Sane & Jesus out for Hazard and Andre Gray?

                                                                  • Whits
                                                                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                                                    2 months, 15 days ago

                                                                    Brady and Kolasinac to Coutinho and Femenia?

                                                                    A) YES
                                                                    B) NO

                                                                    Other defenders I have are Otamendi, Mee, Naughton and Mbemba.

                                                                    Thanks

                                                                  • JoeSoap
                                                                      2 months, 15 days ago

                                                                      Which 2 would you bench? assuming Moreno is fit.

                                                                      A. Moreno (EVERTON)
                                                                      B. Ward (WATFORD)
                                                                      C. Daniels (c palace)
                                                                      D, Duffy (hudders)
                                                                      E. Maguire (newc)