Members

The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. ryacoo
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Will be playing double Burnley defence (Pope & Mee) if Mustafi doesn't make it. Which midfielder should l play:

    A) RLC (BOU)
    B) Richarlison (bur)

    1. Over Midwicket
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      B

    2. RAFA THE GAFFA
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      B

      1. RAFA THE GAFFA
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        But spoils the fun a bit I guess

    3. Stef rocks
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I have exactly the same dilemma, but I dont have Burnley defenders. So imo your answer is clear - play RLC (when you will play him if not at home vs BOR)

  2. Rik Waller
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Bottom 3 keepers in these stats are English... We still believe.

    1. redbeard
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Pour yourself a stiff drink 😉

  3. Dheeraj Amarnani
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Wildcard week

    DDG
    Sakho Dunk Mee
    Sane Salah Hazard Richarlison RLC
    Morata Kane(c)

    (Speroni Otamendi Zeegelaar Calvert-Lewin)
    Nothing in the bank.
    Good to go?

    1. Gruu
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Sane to Sterling and upgrade Sakho/Dunk.

  4. Boris Bodega
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    All this fuss over getting Kane in for the DBL GW, are there not better options in Spurs to consider when you look at the fixtures?

    1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      LLoris

    2. FPL ZB
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Name one? Alli and Eriksen are dreadful atm, the wingbacks rotate, Vert gets booked every game, and they're conceding

      1. Boris Bodega
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Personally thinking about defence and Eriksen.

        1. Boris Bodega
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          oh and Son, but only if he looks like playing both games.

        2. ryacoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          2 games in less than 2 days - will any Spurs play them both other than Kane, Lloris, etc?

    3. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      That week is a long way away - if say Rose gets injured in the run up (or goes off on one again) I'd be all over Bavies

      1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        ...maybe even Kane, in comes Llorente

    4. Rik Waller
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      No

    5. Gommy
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      No. I wouldn't advise trying to overthink it either.

      If everyone's fit, Kane/Lloris will be the only two that you could say are nailed for both. After that, you would probably consider Vertonghen/Alderweireld.

      Injuries between now and then may enable others.

  5. stat
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Thoughts on this move for a 4 pt hit?

      Azpi -> Kiko Femenia
      Surman -> Ramsey
      Abraham -> DCL

      Would give me this team:
      Fabianski / Elliot
      Dunk / Daniels / Kolasinac / Mee / Kiko
      Salah / Ramsey / Hazard / Sterling / RLC
      Kane / Morata / DCL

      1. DA Minnion (Former great)
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Those are the 3 players I took in this week.

        1. stat
            6 years, 4 months ago

            I'm also considering Richarlison and Christensen instead of Ramsey and Femenia. Chelsea are likelier to keep CS than Watford and there's not much in it between Richarlison and Ramsey.

      2. Davidinho
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Can anyone give me the lowdown on the Everton striker situation? If DCL plays he seems like a no brainer to accommodate Hazard.

        1. ryacoo
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Niasse was inform and looked first choice, then he got banned for 2 games. DCL did well in that time and has kept his place for now.

          1. Davidinho
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Thanks. It seems inconclusive then 🙁

            1. Albrightondknight
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Thing is I assumed Niasse would be the Big Sam type player but DCL is the one with all the headed attempts.
              Time will tell but I own Niasse 🙁 not looking good now but hope he gets his place back.

        2. Mini Mane Mo
          • 8 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          New striker coming in Jan

          1. Pocky
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Also own Niasse...I think he'll get minutes over the next 2 fixtures, so I'm gonna hold for now and hope things become a little clearer after next Wednesday night.

      3. stat
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Would you rather have:

          A) Kiko + Ramsey
          B) Christensen + Richarlison

          1. tafrère
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            B

          2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            B

        • tafrère
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Zeegelaar (4.4 soon 4.5) or Kabasele (4.5) ?

        • jdogg
          • 12 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Lukaku and sane

          To

          Hazard and vardy

          Worth-4?x

          1. tafrère
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Yes.

          2. Stef rocks
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Get rid of both but I would choose Firmino over Vardy

        • wulfrunian
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          From gw17 who is the best defender pick from Manutd?

          1. stat
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Jones, he should be back soon

            • SUPER 11
              • 6 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Valencia

          2. Saïss Doesn't Mat…
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            "Warning – fans of the English national team may wish to pour themselves a stiff drink before making it to the bottom of this list:"
            Hahahaha nice touch.

          3. Albrightondknight
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Sorry bit out of the loop.
            The Spurs and West Ham blank in 21 and dgw in 22 is caused just by the way the fixtures fall during fixture congestion?
            Has this happened before at the same time of year I can't remember.

            1. tafrère
              • 7 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Nope it's because of logistical problems.

              1. Albrightondknight
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 4 months ago

                Thanks

          4. Sims
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Looks like this is true. 🙁

            http://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/comment/17114883

            1. Bury94
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 6 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Oh dear, bad week to have my worst week of the season, knocked out of LMS and not qualified for this

            2. johnnys balloons
              • 6 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              When we will know for sure? I got 56 points

          5. PocketZola
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            So close to selling kane

          6. HurriKane
            • 11 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Nobody considering Shaqiri ?

            - 4 goals and 5 assists in last 11 pl starts.

            - Only 6.1m price and has (bur WHU WBA hud NEW) in 5 of next 6 after spurs

            1. Holmes
              • 10 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Probably going to drop Zaha for him in couple of weeks

            2. Fpldonny
              • 8 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              shhhh

            3. Kryten
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              He seems to clash with richarislon at that price difficult to afford in the current template.

            4. Stats Don\'t Lie
              • 9 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Shhhhhhh

          7. PocketZola
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Daniels to zeeglar before the price rise?

            1. tafrère
              • 7 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              I'm a bit in the same position, if it's not for a hit I say yes.

            2. SUPER 11
              • 6 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Yes ....

            3. Pierce34
              • 8 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Don't think so, I'd rather keep Daniels for this week and sell next.

            4. Stef rocks
              • 6 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Yes

          8. Sillet Bang
            • 14 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Fabianski
            Azpi Kolo Ward Valencia
            Gross Salah KDB
            Kane@ Morata Gray

            Ryan RLC Ferminia Cork

            Can’t make my mind on subs! Any opinions appreciated

            1. redbeard
              • 7 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              You have Gray vs Ward so bench Ward and start RLC?

          9. Pierce34
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Assuming they both start, would you captain Ben Yedder or Salah in UCL tonight?

            1. Kryten
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Salah

          10. SUPER 11
            • 6 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Play Pope or Lloris?

            1. Kryten
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Lloris as Watford look decent this year

          11. boc610
            • 12 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            If you want a short rundown of what Pep did to Joe Harts career, find an empty coke can, crush it and toss it in the bin.

            1. Kryten
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 10 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              To be fair didn't Pellegrino bench Hart first?

            2. Fpldonny
              • 8 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              tbf joe hart is not a top class keeper

              1. Kryten
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                6 years, 4 months ago

                He was a few years ago

            3. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
              • 6 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              I've never bought Head and Shoulders since he started advertising it.

          12. RAFA THE GAFFA
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Benching headaches! Which 3 would you Bench? Thinking Ota, Ward and DCL.

            Fab
            Ota / Christensen / Kiko / Ward / Duffy
            Salah / Richarl / Hazard / Coutinho / RLC
            Kane / Morata / DCL
            (Elliot / XXX / XXX / XXX)

            1. stat
                6 years, 4 months ago

                I agree with benching Ward and DCL but I'm not sure if I'd start Otamendi or Kiko.

              • Stef rocks
                • 6 Years
                6 years, 4 months ago

                I would bench RLC DCL and Ward, e.g. play Ota

            2. leonickroberts
              • 7 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Start:

              a) Ota (mun)
              b) Kenny (liv)
              c) Mariappa (bur)

              1. tafrère
                • 7 Years
                6 years, 4 months ago

                C

              2. Kryten
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 10 Years
                6 years, 4 months ago

                C

            3. stat
                6 years, 4 months ago

                Thoughts on these moves for a 4 pt hit?
                Azpi -> Christensen
                Surman -> Richarlison
                Abraham -> DCL

                Will give me the following team:
                Fabianski
                Dunk - Kolasinac - Christensen
                Hazard - Salah - Sterling - Richarlison - RLC
                Kane - Morata

                Bench: Elliot, DCL, Daniels, Mee

                1. Kryten
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  Looks a good idea to me

                2. RAFA THE GAFFA
                  • 8 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  Good moves

              • DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
                • 10 Years
                6 years, 4 months ago

                I have Duffy, Dunk, Naughton and Mee into 2 spots.

                Big Brighton gamble, one of them or none at all?

                1. The Rumour Mill
                  • 7 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  I would double down on Brighton!

                  1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
                    • 10 Years
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    Thanks for feedback - I think one of them is due a goal too so may well gamble, maybe Dunk in the right net!

              • Iceball
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                6 years, 4 months ago

                Defender up to 4.9
                A) Sakho
                B) Zee
                C) Simpson/Morgan

                1. Kryten
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  Sakho bonus and attacking potential with out dann in the lineups

                2. Football Weekender
                  • 7 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  From that list - C

                  Off list - Femenia

                3. Live Lad
                  • 9 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  I went J Ward myself. 0.1 short of Sakho.

              • XABI 15
                • 8 Years
                6 years, 4 months ago

                Bench one of:

                Richarlison (Bur A, have Mee)
                Gross (Hud A)
                Wilson (Cry A)
                Abraham (WBA H)

                Thanks

                1. Kryten
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 10 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  What's you team look like?

                  1. XABI 15
                    • 8 Years
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    DDG Elliot

                    Mee Azpi Kola Hegazi Jones
                    Hazard Salah Ramsey Gross Richarlison
                    Abraham Wilson Kane

                2. stat
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    I'd probably bench Abraham, but I have no idea which one of Defoe and Wilson Howe will start so that's something to consider too.

                  • The Head-Ake
                    • 7 Years
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    C

                3. Daniel Exeter
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 11 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  Admittedly I don't really know anything about Zeeglar - I see he's on the rise.

                  He's only played 4 games all season, yes the last 4 .. but where has he been the rest of the season? Is there a worry he'll be fall back to not playing?

                  1. czechow
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    I have the exact same concerns..

                  2. Football Weekender
                    • 7 Years
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    There’s always the risk of wingbacks being rotated due to the physical exertion the position requires. The only one who seems immune to it is Alonso. I’d expect Zeegelaar to be rested for Holebas at some point and the same with Femenia and Janmaat on the other side. Won’t stop me from getting Femenia though.

                    1. czechow
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 8 Years
                      6 years, 4 months ago

                      Does similarly priced Kabasele prevent the risk? 2 goals in last 7 or something

                      1. Football Weekender
                        • 7 Years
                        6 years, 4 months ago

                        Centrebacks are less prone to rotation but as to who Silva’s preferred three are, I don’t know to be honest. The insight of a Watford supporter would be helpful at this point!

                4. czechow
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  Pope - Elliott
                  Mee - Daniels - Christensen - Azpi - Dunk
                  Richo - RLC - Salah - Sterling - Sane
                  Kane - Morata - Wilson

                  A) Sane > Coutinho
                  B) Sane + Azpi > Hazard + Kabasele / Zeeg / Mariappa (-4)
                  C) something else?

                  Dead weight I am looking at Elliott, Sane (due to Utd away), Wilson. Would like Hazard above all else.

                  Help please guys?

                5. Stef rocks
                  • 6 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  Repeating post, but still don’t have answers to myself!

                  Need to play 3 - Who would you play out of these:
                  A)Gomez vs EVE.
                  B)Maguire vs new
                  C)Gross vs hud
                  D)Richa vs bur
                  E) RLC vs BOR
                  F) Wilson vs cry

                  Currently heading to A, B & C but that would mean playing 5-3-2 which seems kind of weird but could be beneficial at the end of the day?!

                  I really want to avoid having 6pts playing and 15+ on bench 🙁

                  1. Ajax Hamsterdam
                    • 9 Years
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    A clean sheet
                    C great fixture
                    E palace should score worth a wee gamble

                  2. dunas_dog
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    C D F

                  3. Surfeit of Lampteys
                    • 6 Years
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    Damn that's tough. The only two I'd be comfortable benching are Maguire and Wilson. If Gomez plays tonight there's a chance he plays Trent vs Everton anyway.

                    1. Stef rocks
                      • 6 Years
                      6 years, 4 months ago

                      Yeah pretty clear with Gomez situation - so there comes the question of 1st sub if I play him and he didn’t play 🙂

                      1. Surfeit of Lampteys
                        • 6 Years
                        6 years, 4 months ago

                        I say go ACD with EBF your bench order. V tough call tho so good luck.

                  4. Stef rocks
                    • 6 Years
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    Rest of the team if this will help you 🙂

                    Fab
                    Azpi Kola Tripier
                    Salah Ozil
                    Morata Kane

                6. KingOfLuck
                  • 7 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  I have 2 FT and 1.0 M itb, but not sure were to use them?

                  Fabianski
                  Daniels - Monreal – Ward – Naugton
                  Hazard – Salah – Zaha
                  Firmino – Kane – Morata
                  Subs: Elliot – Doucouré – Cork - Mbemba

                  A) Elliot -> Gomes
                  B) Elliot + Fabianski -> Speroni + Courtois
                  C) Zaha -> Ramsey
                  D) City coverage?
                  E) Other?
                  F) Waste a FT?!

                  1. justlikehoney
                    • 7 Years
                    6 years, 4 months ago

                    Team looks good for this week. I'd do Elliot to Gomes or Mbemba to a Watford defender.