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The Technical Area – Expected Goals Prevented

Regular readers of the Technical Area articles will no doubt be familiar with expected goals (xG), a key metric introduced to the Fantasy Football Scout Members’ area this year as a means of estimating goal scoring returns on the basis of chance quality.

This week, however, we are flipping our focus to examine the top goalkeepers over this year’s campaign and to introduce, for the first time, our related keeper-specific metric: expected goals prevented (xGP).

In brief, this data tallies the quantity and quality of chances a goalkeeper is faced with, in order to calculate a baseline of their expected goals conceded. From this number, we subtract the true number of goals that have beaten each goalkeeper, in order to determine the expected goals they have personally deterred.

This week’s Technical Area will be running the rule over how FPL’s highest-owned goalkeepers have performed in this particular metric thus far.

We also take a wider view of the position as it now stands, in light of the recent uncertainty surrounding the pitch time of budget-friendly options such as Rob Elliot and Julian Speroni.

1,215 Comments Post a Comment
  1. UnitedXCI
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Courtois Speroni
    Otamendi Smalling Daniel Mee Mariappa
    Haz salah Gros Sterling RLC
    Niasse kane Morata
    0.0ITB 2FT

    Any suggestions on transfers ? Thank you

    1. Alex_thekid
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Daniels to moreno and Niasse to Dcl

  2. OBAMA
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Please help me pals..

    Fab / Elliot

    Mustafi / Naughton / Daniels / Ward / Mbemba

    Salah / Sane / Silva / Alli / Stephens

    Diouf / Kane / Firm

    (0.6m in the bank)

    Team is very shakey I know... thinking of getting in Hazard as have no Chelsea cover atm.

    Do you think I need to get Mustafi and Silva out or should I monitor?

    Thanks!

    1. OBAMA
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      please people... help this poor poor man!

    2. fishnil
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Why do you think Alli is better than Silva? Spurs are not setting any grounds on fire this season that it warrants to have 2 attackers. Alli + Silva -> Richarlison+ Hazard

      1. OBAMA
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        silva plays 90 mins, sane doesnt

  3. The Royal Robin
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Any hits necessary (Wilson > Austin for -4?) or GTG?

    Pope
    Maguire Christensen Alonso
    Salah (V) Zaha Sterling Richarlison
    Kane (C) Morata Wilson

    Foster Moreno Carroll Cedric

    1. OBAMA
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I'm no Fantasy pro but don't do Wilson -> Austin for a hit

      1. gwitbrock
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        I thought your stance was supposed to be Yes We Can!

  4. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Just asked Siri to pick my WC team 😮 wtf...

    1. The Big Fella
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      and the result..............?

    2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      What did it say? 😆

    3. The Wise Owl
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Hazard can't play in goal

  5. ooooo
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Hazard safe to captain this week? Not sure how likely he is to get rested.

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Won’t get rested. 99% start

  6. AFC49
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Pope
    Azpi, Kolasinac, Ward
    Salah, Sterling, Groß, Richarlison
    Morata, Kane, Vardy

    Elliot, RLC, Daniels, Mariappa

    1FT, 0.2 ITB

    Azpi > Christensen, Groß > Hazard, Vardy > 5.1 worth a -8? Still have my WC.

    1. OBAMA
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      WC Bruh

      1. AFC49
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Instead of a -8? Still like most of my squad.

      2. zotter
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Save wc for gw 20 and get a dgw plan.

    2. gwitbrock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I don't think there's a 5.1 worth getting tbh. As Gross has a good fixture this week maybe save for one week and do Azpi/Elliot/Vardy/Gross to Christensen/Speroni/DLC/Hazard for -8 after Saturday.

  7. Maddi Son
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Recon Pogba will go down to 7.9 over the next couple of weeks?

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Yes

    2. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Yup.

    3. Dannyb
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Hope so

  8. Carcaju
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Bottomed

    Ben Davies + Niasse -> Christensen + Calvert Lewin

    Yes or no? If any of the prices change I won't be able to do this, so I'm seriously considering doing it tonight

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Go for it

      1. Carcaju
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        You know if any of these 4 players are likely to drop or raise tonight?

        1. Red Dagger ✪
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Doesn't look like it.

        2. OBAMA
          • 9 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Calvin Lewin could rise fo sho

        3. We Will Klopp you
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          This is your best guide when it comes to price rises/falls

          http://www.fplstatistics.co.uk/

          1. Carcaju
            • 8 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Thanks a lot guys. Cheers!

    2. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Definitely. No injury risk as Chelsea have played and dlc won’t play tomorrow

      1. Carcaju
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks! And even if Christensen isn't 100% nailed, I have 3 defenders that play for sure so I guess it's worth the shot

  9. Jafooli
    • 12 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Who's been your favourite Secretary General of the United Nations?

    1. Deano
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      That guy from the Moon.

      1. Jafooli
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Wanky-Spoon?

  10. FPLAdmiral
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Is Alonso worth the money chaps? Undecided on A or B -

    (A) Better XI - Alonso, Mustafi, Mbemba (Bench), Niasse (Bench)
    (B) Better Squad - Christensen, Otamendi, Kiko (Rotate), DCL (Rotate) +0.2m

    Pope (Elliot)
    __, __, __, Moreno, Mee
    Hazard, Salah, Sterling, Richarlison, RLC
    __, Kane, Morata.

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      B

  11. Atimis
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Hey mates:

    TC to RLC and play him or Dann to Kiko and play Kiko?

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I would do the latter this week

      1. Atimis
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Leaning towards this

  12. Monkey Hanger
    • 10 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Any word on Andy and his shit internet connection? Is it the end of 'Lets Talk FPL'? Hoping someone has some good news.

    1. CloudSky
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Only whats on his twitter.

      "I think the YouTube stuff is likely going to have to stop.

      I used to record the videos after streams / Scoutcast and get it uploaded the same night to save time. Took about 10-15 mins to upload.

      Think I've missed maybe 2 Scoutcasts in total since I started doing them. Unfortunately tonight I had to miss another as the connection just won't hold up so that will have to stop too.

      I will look into alternatives to get back on track but I don't think there are any..."

      1. The Wise Owl
        • 8 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Where is he uploading from? A well?

        1. CloudSky
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Galway. So yeah.

      2. Monkey Hanger
        • 10 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers Cloudsky. That doesn't sound at all hopeful. Shame.

  13. zotter
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    How am I looking ??

    Foster
    Ward. Naughton. Alonso
    Rlc. Richarlison. Hazard. Salah. Mane
    Morata. Kane c

    Elliott. Mariappa. Kenny. Niasse

  14. Iceball
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Watford, Leicester and Crystal Palace with good fixtures, who to get max 4.9?
    A) Sakho
    B) Zee or Femenia
    C) Simpson/Morgan

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Ferminia

    2. OBAMA
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      zee for me

    3. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Femenia or Sakho

    4. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I don't think Leicester's fixtures are good.In the next 6 only New,Cpal are good on papers.Sou(A),Wat(A) are tricky.Kiko for me in gw19.

  15. OBAMA
    • 9 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Please help me pals..

    Fab / Elliot
    Mustafi / Naughton / Daniels / Ward / Mbemba
    Salah / Sane / Silva / Alli / Stephens
    Diouf / Kane / Firm

    (0.6m in the bank)

    Team is very shakey I know... thinking of getting in Hazard as have no Chelsea cover atm.

    Do you think I need to get Mustafi and Silva out or should I monitor?

    Thanks!

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Sane Alli to Richarlison Hazard ?

      Sane will be rotated more than silva imo

      1. OBAMA
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        but silva and mustafi on 75% ...?? or no need to worry?

    2. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Alli out for sure and probably Sane / Silva. Bring in Haz and Sterling and you are GTG.

      1. OBAMA
        • 9 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        why is sterling suddenly nailed on ahead of Sane?

        I originally took sterling out for sane 2 weeks ago :O

        1. Red Dagger ✪
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          So did I and that was a mistake. He just gets in better areas and is playing sort of as a second striker. Plus he is less money.

          1. OBAMA
            • 9 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            hmm ok, would you take out silva or sane?

            1. OBAMA
              • 9 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              also can't afford to bring in haz and sterling

              1. fishnil
                • 9 Years
                6 years, 4 months ago

                Get Richarlison instead

  16. Maddamotha
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Good evening!
    I have 2 fts. 0itb

    Foster (Elliot)
    Otamendi, Ward, Daniels, Jones (Mbemba)
    Salah, Hazard, Sterling, Chopou, Carroll
    Lukaku - Kane

    A) Lukaku, Daniels to Morata, Christensen (leaves me with 0itb)
    B) Lukaku, Chopou, to Firmino. Ramsey (leaves me with 0.3itb)
    C) Other

    1. OBAMA
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Lukaku -> morata

      Chopou -> rambo

      ????

      1. Maddamotha
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Dont have the cash mate

    2. gwitbrock
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      A for me. Choupo could easily come good the next few weeks.

  17. Carcaju
    • 8 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Hey! Any of you know if Davies, Christensen, Niasse or Calvert Lewin are likely to drop or raise tonight?

    Cheers!

    1. KingOfLuck
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      No, doesn't look like it.

    2. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      fplstatistics.co.uk

      Reliable for rises 90% of the time, reasonable for drops. Best out there currently.

  18. Zinedine Kilbane
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Good to see the English keepers performing so well

    1. The Wise Owl
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Joe Hart for England

    2. Zinedine Kilbane
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 11 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Who you think should be number 1?

      1. The Big Fella
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Pope on current form

  19. AzzaroMax99
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Guys, should I play:

    A) RLC
    B) Daniels
    C) play them both but bench Dunk

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      C

      1. AzzaroMax99
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        thx

  20. KingOfLuck
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    I will do a repost but add an alternative C!!! 😉

    Would you rather have A, B or C?

    A Courtois and Kabasele = 10m
    B Gomes and Christensen = 10m
    C DDG and Kabasele = 10.3m

    Why did Kabasele go of at 63 min last game? (Is it worth finding 0.1 to pick Kiko instead?)
    What does Value (form) and Value (season) stand for when sorting transfer objects?

  21. Gudjohnsen
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Best City attacker to have and why?

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I would say kdb

    2. CloudSky
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Otamendi.

    3. Sandy Ravage
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Sterling or Jesus

      1. zotter
        • 14 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Not Jesus. Can’t captain him. Sterling or kdb

    4. Emp
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      sane

      1. Emp
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        or sterling

    5. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Coutinho 😉

    6. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Depends if you can deal with how frustrating Sterling is, how streaky Sané is, how expensive kdb is. The strikers are a no go atm with Jesus acting as a super sub and Aguero all out of form.

  22. JurgenRodgers
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Which players would you like to see emerge over the next month or so?

    Going to throw a few out there!!

    Shaw at £4.9

    Deeney £6.3 (At Everton)

    Lamela £6.3

    Pereyra £5.8

    Any thoughts?

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Maybe deeney.

      Perhaps Lallana?

    2. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Lamela. Always liked him. Must be those eyes 😉

  23. Geoff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 11 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    How is everyone?

    Would you prefer:

    1. Ramsey + Christensen
    2. Gross + Alonso

    Cheers in advance

    1. Sandy Ravage
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      1 by a distance

    2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I'm pukka, Geoff! 😉

      1).

      1. Geoff
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 11 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        😀

        Not happy that someone already took Geoff

        1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          Naughty people!!! 😆

    3. Kun Tozser
      • 8 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      2

    4. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Both Groß and Ramsey are great... I guess Ramsey is more assured to keep up performance levels.

    5. Clifford☯
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      1

  24. Ballistics
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Aguero Chopo Surman Bavies
    To
    Quaner Ramsey Hazard Kenney
    For -8?

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Seems a worthy -8 to me

  25. We Will Klopp you
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Pope (*Elliott)
    Azpi Otamendi *Ward Dunk *Daniels
    Salah Sterling Hazard Richarlison RLC
    Kane Morata *Niasse

    Plan is: Daniels to Sakho -4 for this gw and Ward to Femenia free gw17. This will leave 0.3m itb for either switching out Elliott for a Palace keeper or to go towards the Heaton fund. Niasse can also be replaced with Crouch soon enough but that and the Elliott upgrade aren't a priority.

    A) Good plan
    B) Bad plan
    C) Would change some aspect of it (please state which)

    1. The Overthinker
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I like Daniels to sakho.
      Doubling up on palace defender is not what I would ideally want . So heaton funds it is

      1. We Will Klopp you
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Cheers

    2. The Big Fella
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      B) because I think you should be a lot more conservative with points hits given your hit gamble a short while back. Can you not do Daniels to Kiko Femenia now and then use the difference in cash to do the keeper thing? Or just save a transfer.

    3. Red Dagger ✪
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      I like Daniels to Sakho... Hadn't thought about it before but it sounds tasty..

  26. The Overthinker
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Kane gonna fall down tonight?

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Hope not, if he gets flagged as a result of that he might drop in price

      1. We Will Klopp you
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        All joking aside, he's at 97.2% atm, so it's possible but don't think it will happen until the last minute if at all personally

        1. The Overthinker
          • 7 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          if at all he falls, I hope he repays it over the weekend

    2. Speédy
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Been there for 3 days now. I think he falls Friday/Saturday

      1. The Big Fella
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Hopefully Saturday

  27. The Overthinker
    • 7 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Best defender below 5.5 for next 3 ?

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Sakho, Moreno, Femenia/Zeegelaar all good options

      1. The Overthinker
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Moreno with two home games is tempting .

    2. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Gomez, Moreno or Mustafi?

      1. The Overthinker
        • 7 Years
        6 years, 4 months ago

        Tempted to do Francis to Moreno for ft

        1. zotter
          • 14 Years
          6 years, 4 months ago

          I would do Gomez over Moreno

          1. The Overthinker
            • 7 Years
            6 years, 4 months ago

            Why is that?

            1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 14 Years
              6 years, 4 months ago

              Better at earning baps.

              1. The Overthinker
                • 7 Years
                6 years, 4 months ago

                Ah okay cheers .

                One more thing doos, will you do Francis to say Gomez or Moreno this week and bench rlc ?

                1. Doosra - ☭DeclanMyGeniusâ…
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 14 Years
                  6 years, 4 months ago

                  Yes. I am not Loftus-Cheek's biggest fan. He flatters to deceive.

    3. Speédy
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Sakho,Kiko, Christensen,Mustafi

  28. Lanley Staurel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Anyone know why Silva is flagged?

    1. We Will Klopp you
      • 7 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Pep said he's a doubt for the Derby

  29. royals forever
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    Pick one to play from

    Daniels (cry)
    Moreno (EVE)
    Dunk (hud)

    &

    Gross (hud)
    Richarlison (bur)

    Any ideas would be welcomed

    1. zotter
      • 14 Years
      6 years, 4 months ago

      Moreno

      And can’t you play both ?!

  30. FCExpectedToulouse
    • 6 Years
    6 years, 4 months ago

    DDG / Elliot

    Nacho/Ota/Daniels/Ward/Rangel

    Salah/Sane/GroB/Hazard/Davis

    Vardy/Lukaku/Ayew

    2FT/ 1.4 ITB

    Thinking of
    A} Daniels => Kabasele
    Lukaku => Morata
    Davis => Ramsey
    B} Daniels => Zeeglar
    Wait a week
    Lukaku => Kane
    C} Daniels => Valencia
    Davis => random