Monitor – Romelu Lukaku

Think FH35 will still be a winner. There are 3/4 very good fixtures and 11 players from those teams could really pay off. Those fixtures certainly appeal much more than GW31 and there could be huge scores.

But after seeing how the fixtures are going to fall most likely according to Ben Crellin I quite fancy his strategy of FH34, WC36, BB37.

Was FH a success? I didn't FH, got a few DGWers in and ended up with 90 points. Anyone who captained Salah and had a couple of other performers did ok and still have their FH

Also why the early Hot Topic today?

Is the usual article slot kept for a much bigger announcement today? :p

Biased post:

I think free hit 35 will be a winner over the 31 crowd.

Whilst 31 people may have lost out on a few points by stinking up their team with Walcott and co, if we are looking at the one week alone, the 20 point drop difference is good, but can be beaten.

In 35 where someone can boomerang their wildcard team to include a heavy hitting side, and then get their assets back looks to me a real winner on paper, especially for someone you without City assets.

Got a ton net with a couple of hits but the lost opportunities in planning cost well over 20, maybe 40 or 50 over the weeks.

I asked about TCing Salah on here but the only response was that it was a terrible idea 🙁

My FH last week earned me 36 points, but I am not happy going forward (just had to be done since I only had Firmino, Richarlison and Salah)

Though I must add, that this result in me using my TC in GW34, WC in GW36 and BB in GW37 - somewhat different to all of those still having all the chips (and it could still work out just fine).

My team is looking quiet good going into the next few weeks, and I just have to make transfers for the DGW, but not too many, since I can't FH in GW35 😉

There has to be more difference with the value of different chips. TC is worth one extra player (the best one though) and with BB you can get 4 extra players. 4 > 1 imo.

The problem with the BB is that of all the WCs I have seen, most are not trying to maximise the boost and seem to think that having a playing bench of poor low scoring players is the way to go.

Of course you can’t load the bench with £££ with a WC in 32 for a BB in 34 and carry that cash onwards, the questions then arises ... why BB in 34 anyway ? But hey ho, this has been the FFS strategy that most are following 😉

I've still got all chips intact and am happy with the 100 points I scored without using a chip in GW31, whoever that ton has come at the expense of 4 red arrows in the previous 4 GW's when I was setting my team up for that blank GW. Not so good.

I'm just hoping I pick a decent option for TC in the double. That will ease the pain of not making the sensational gamble of TC Salah GW31.

I think the FH in 35 is going to be huge. Using 20 points over 1 week isn't the best way to measure success. Measuring it over the 2 weeks (34/35), where those with the FH do not need to worry about having GW35 players in there BB GW 34 team, is a better indication of its success.

Every chance that most of those with TC left will be using it on Kane in GW37 if he's fit. So how much of a difference it's going to make will be interesting. Maybe it's those that go Mahrez or something different in GW37 that will gain the most.
be interesting to see (if Kane injury lingers) how many will be brave enough to TC Salah at home to Bournemouth. Side that gives up chances and Liverpool already beaten them 4-0 this season.
Kind of hope Kane isn't back in time for GW37 just to see a wide range of selections.
It's the failure of the chip system by allowing their use in DGWs that kind of weakens their effectiveness anyway.
BB score of 20 (even in DGW) would be decent. Last year BB got me just 16pts in a DGW score of 174. I've already had that bettered that BB in 3 GWs this season.

So true! If most people use the TC on the same person the impact on rank won't be as big and also non TCers will presumably have them captain too

For what it's worth my big change would be only one wildcard and two triple captains (one to be used before Jan 1st).

As a rough guide, last season the top 12 in FPL averaged 20 extra points for the bench boost and 13 extra points for the triple captain. I think the figure for the triple captain is a tad lower than what could be expected, I'd say about 15 is a fair expectation.

Free hit is more difficult to assess, but I feel like about 30 points extra would be a good return.

I would prefer to have a triple cap chip that had to be used in the first half of the season like the first wildcard and one in the second.
At the moment the ranks are skewed in favour of people who used the chips early, only to see them fall backwards through the ranks in the last 6 weeks with all the chips used in the double gameweeks at the end.

If you FH in GW35, you can bench boost in DGW34 and TC in DGW37 (or visa versa), however if you FH in GW34 or GW37 it is unlikely that fixtures will allow you to also use the BB and TC chips in DGW's. This is a big factor in the favour of GW35 FH'ers IMO.

Exactly Mr Alonso, plus I spend far too long planning my initial squad only to see hundreds of thousand managers wildcard after 4 weeks to have the same squad. It's why the template exists!

Got a buddy in my ML who made up a lot of ground on his FH in 31. 121pts prob gave him something like 35-40 pts more than the average. He didnt manage to make any grounds on the planners leading up to the gw though.

15-25 is realistic with the TC, prob a ceiling of 35pts
BB has a higher realistic expactation than the TC imo. As long as you opt for nailed benchplayers you should at the very least expect 4*2*2= 16pts, having players with favourable fixtures might give 1 or 2 cs and maybe you also luck out with a mid or striker with getting attacking returns. I Believe 20-30 points is realistic expectations. Vey unsure about the ceiling though.

FH is probably the most lucrative chip, but i find it very difficult to judge what to expect from it, because you prob need to judge it by how you benefit leading up to using it, the gw you use it, and the gws after. Those who use the FH in 34/37 will prob benefit more from the use of the chip, but those with all chips left is prob somewhat "locked" to 35 at this point.

The norwegian chips are more lucrative.
Played in a DGW:
PTB would make it possible to have "captaincy" on 5 defender with 2 fixtures. Asumming some of the good teams with pricey defenders play, one can effectively captain 30million of funds.
SR: Prob equally as valuable as PTB. Makes it possible to Captain 3 striker with 2 fix and a value of 30-35Million depending on what teams have a DGW.

I got 37 extra points for my free hit = win

I got 3 extra points for my TC = fail

None of that will be relevant at the end of the season if the OR is poor.

A season lasts 38 weeks not just the 3 weeks you happened to use your chips, the only win (or loss) will be when you look at your rank.

was it "Individual" who came up with the floor and ceiling analogy?
my thoughts are the FHC is safer to use on a reduced fixture list
(higher floor).
some people will nail this on a reduced fixture list that has a better prospect of players with better fixtures - 35 has both higher floor and higher ceiling.I think they will be the ones who benefit most.
I myself pi$$ed the chip away on a week of fixture swings in gwk10 - went for higher ceiling.
my fhc got me 17 pts more which I was disappointed about.
in summary unless you are a top manager (which I'm not) you can use the fhc effectively and nail it an any week but the safer option is to use it on reduced gameweeks as theirs less risk of messing it up.

Great Hot Topic, even better replies and discussion 🙂

Bench Boost should have a minimum (floor) return: at leaat 16 points (4 playwrs on your bench playing 2x2 points matches).

So for Bench Boost, 20 points is really at the low end of success. I'd say at least 2 returns are needed ontop of appearance points, which puts it into at least 25, but realistically more like 30.

Triple Captain is different - your gain is simply the sum of a non-doubled captain score. So on a double that starts as 4 points, but given you'd hope for double digits per game for a captain then 20 is a reasonable success measure.

I gain 50pts with my FH chip the gw when Salah was out for just a week. Triple cap is the best chip to gain points just have be lucky enough to put it on the correct week.

2nd WC probably still remains the most valuable chip to those who have it.
was surprised how many in top 10k had used it already (40%).
Still a need to focus on GWs32 & 33 before the DGWs start. Would hope to be picking up an extra 10-15pts per GW over those who have used WC already.
Assuming most of WCing will have at least 11 DGWers that could be worth at least 20pts in the 1 DGW over the 60% who will probably be having to take hits to get out a decent number of players

I used FH in GW31 and am very happy with it (less happy with my 3 point return from TC on Kane!). I had very good weeks in GW30 and GW31 and have made a lot of ground on rivals. I only have the BB left to play, but with some uncertainty still surrounding the fixtures, I don't need to rush it. I can wait and see what happens. I don't think the FH will be as valuable in GW35 as I'm going to have quite a few players featuring in it anyway. Man City will be a complete gamble for me from now on - I can see a lot of rotation and I don't back myself to predict Pep correctly, so I'm staying well clear!

With my WC activated this week to be rid of the GW31 players I accumulated over a few weeks I was happy to collect 99 points with no hits.
However, I decided to TC Kane in GW22 at the last minute, one of many last minute moves that have backfired on me this season.
For me it's all about getting as many quality 2x DGW players in my team now for 34 & 37.
I was thinking of keeping the FH chip for GW37 but think it will be best used in GW35 for me with my current WC team.

I'm backing FPL Virgin's strategy - in what I think is the most audacious and inspiring post I've seen here - and FH37.

For me I gained a net 34 points on the FH chip when used in GW 22. This is by comparing the points I got on FH to what I would have originally got. Sure I lost out part of that again the following week when my original team (that had neither Kane nor Son) was restored. Don't know if that counts though. I am happy with my decision so far.

I played my free hit during a short term injury/suspension crises and got 40 points more than my current one did. I was about the weekly average by over 30 and it kick started my season. Never regretted it. Although week 35 might change that

I have yet to see anyone in my mini league use a successful triple or bench boost. Those that have played it have all wasted it.

I would argue only successful times to have used it would have been on Salah in 31 and Aguero in 27

What does winning and losing with a chip look like? It's very natural to judge all decisions - not just use of chips - based on the outcome, but is that really rational? How do you (or even can you) distinguish someone who did something irrational, but lucked out from someone who made an excellent rational decision, but was unlucky this time around?

Was using TC in 31 on Salah rational? Sure, in hindsight it was a great decision, but isn't it more rational to always use TC in a double gameweek when the player picked has double the opportunities? Or is the fact the Salah doesn't have a DGW this season and will be by far the highest scoring player in the game make TC on Salah in a home game against weak opposition a good choice?

Is success with a measured by the number of points you actually get from it in any one season or is it using the chips in a way that, if done consistently, maximises the outcome over a number of seasons? Can we assess how much the patterns of different seasons are similar to each other? Yes we tend to get around 2 DGWs and 2 blanks near the end of a season, but the individual fixtures and the strength and position of the teams involved can be very different.

Not sure I have any answers to these questions, but find it fascinating!

Used TC on Kane, but still at 44k even after many have TC’ed Salah and played their FH. Loads of mugs in ML’s are now chipless, so I expect to move up the ranks with the following strategy;

GW32 Aubameyang in
GW33 wildcard
GW34 BB
GW35 FH
GW36 roll FT
GW37 2 FTs

Last year in the run-in I went from 400k to a 109k finish!

20pts is very good for TC/BB. Realistically you're looking at around 12-18pts imo.