Spot the Differential

Spot the Differential – Lacazette can match Aubameyang output

The Gameweek 1 deadline is now upon us which gives us a chance to have a look at some differential options for the start of the season.

We’ve pulled out three players currently under five percent ownership who represent viable alternatives to some of the more popular assets out there.

Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m)

Ownership: 4.3 percent

There is reason to believe that Alexandre Lacazette (£9.5m) could match Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£11.0m) in FPL this season, which could help Fantasy managers looking to save money.

The two strikers have scored the same number of goals in Arsenal’s public pre-season friendlies, with six apiece and Aubamayang just one ahead on assists (three to two).

As Lacazette’s involvements have come from slightly less time on the pitch, his minutes-per-goal involvement is remarkably similar to his Gabonese colleague. The Frenchman has averaged one every 31.37 minutes, with Aubameyang involving himself in a public pre-season strike every 32.22 minutes.

As for his position within the team, Lacazette looks likely to start as the central striker, with Aubameyang operating from an inside-left position, as has been the case this summer.

It must also be noted that Lacazette actually finished the end of last season in sensational form, as he began to develop a great relationship with Aubameyang. In his final six appearances of 2017/18 he found the net five times and produced one assist. By comparison, Aubameyang also scored the same number of goals in his last six outings of the campaign, edging the Frenchman only on assists (three to one).

In the last six Gameweeks, Lacazette also bettered Aubameyang for minutes-per-goal (90.3 to 103.6) and was close behind when it came to minutes-per-shot too (33.9 to 30.1).

Having one of the two Arsenal attackers looks to be a smart move for the beginning of the season. Their opening fixture against Manchester City has the makings of a high-scoring game and Gameweek 2 pits the Gunners against a new-look Chelsea side that look defensively vulnerable in the Community Shield final.

After those two fixtures, there are home meeting with West Ham, Everton, Watford and Leicester mixed with trips to Cardiff, Newcastle, Fulham and Crystal Palace before Liverpool come to the Emirates in Gameweek 11. That is certainly a run of matches where there are goals on offer.

In both the climax of last term and in friendlies this summer, Lacazette has demonstrated the ability to match his more esteemed colleague. This could prove hugely important for Fantasy managers as it gives them the potential to save £1.5m to use elsewhere in their squad if they were to opt for Lacazette over Aubameyang, while still investing in an attack with potential for goals.

ANDROS TOWNSEND (£6.0m)

Ownership: 2.6 percent

Andros Townsend (£6.0m) could prove to be a steady supplier of assists for Crystal Palace this season and offer a differential route into their attack, with just 2.6 percent ownership. The Englishman has impressed both in the back-end of last term and during pre-season, so considering the strength of the Eagles’ fixtures, there’s every reason to believe he is worth investing in.

In the final 10 Gameweeks of 2017/18, no midfielder in the league created more big chances than Townsend’s five. Furthermore, no midfielder from a club outside the top six managed more passes received in the final third between Gameweek 29 and 38, while only one (Riyad Mahrez) registered more touches in that area of the pitch. In that time-frame he laid on three assists, but more ruthless finishing from colleague Wilfried Zaha (£7.0m) at the start of this campaign could help improve on that.

In fact, that has largely been the case in pre-season with no Palace player involved in more goals than Townsend. He provided six assists during the summer months, which is actually more than any other Premier League player managed to accrue during their respective off-seasons.

The Eagles also have the fixtures to get the best out of Townsend. No team ranks higher for attack than them on our Season Ticker in the first six Gameweeks of 2018/19, with trips to Fulham, Watford and Huddersfield alongside home meetings with Liverpool, Southampton and Newcastle.

RYAN FRASER (£5.5m)

Ownership: 1.1 percent

Bournemouth midfielder Ryan Fraser (£5.5m) could prove a shrewd investment at the start of the season as an alternative route into the Cherries’ attack.

Eddie Howe’s men have some appealing fixtures in the early part of the season which has led to 7.2 percent of managers looking to Josh King (£6.5m) for their forward lines. They host newly-promoted Cardiff on the opening day of the season before Everton and Leicester come to the Vitality Stadium. Trips to West Ham, Chelsea and Burnley are a little tougher but could still offer goals for this particularly attacking side.

Fraser can provde a cheaper alternative to King while still being central to the Bournemouth attacking output.

In the last six Gameweeks of 2017/18, only four midfielders created more chances than Fraser. Across the course of the season, he was Bournemouth’s most creative player, with 38 key passes played, at a rate of 1.6 per game. He also topped the Cherries’ charts for touches in the final third (23.5m), passes received there (14.7), successful crosses (0.7) and successful passes in the attacking third (10.5).

There is also the potential for finding the net to go alongside his assist credentials. No Bournemouth player had a higher goal conversion rate. He scored 16.9 percent of the 30 opportunities that fell his way, with King behind him on 15.7 and Wilson on 15.1.

Fraser’s strength does largely lie in his ability to create goals, though. In pre-season he was the provider of four assists, adding one of his own strikes to take his goal involvement tally of five – the same as King.

The form of the Norwegian striker also heightens Fraser’s appeal. He found the net four times over the summer and looks set for a good spell now that the Premier League is back. If he does take his chances at the beginning of the campaign, there’s a good chance he’ll be helping Fraser register assist points.

Read more with Scout

Visit our PRE-SEASON PAGE to get the latest pointers from pre-season friendlies and read scout reports on new players by CLICKING HERE.

Pick your FPL team for 2018/19 using our list of best available players, sorted for your convenience by position and price:

Goalkeepers | Defenders: Budget | Defenders: Mid-Price and Premium | Midfielders: Budget | Midfielders: Mid-Price | Midfielders: Premium | Forwards: Budget | Forwards: Mid-Price |Forwards: Premium

Also check out our detailed statistical analysis articles on every team comparing data for the last two seasons to highlight the players to sign and the players to avoid:

Arsenal | Bournemouth | Brighton & Hove Albion | Burnley | Cardiff City | Chelsea | Crystal Palace | Everton | Fulham | Huddersfield Town | Leicester City | Liverpool | Manchester City | Manchester United | Newcastle United | Southampton | Tottenham Hotspur | Watford | West Ham | Wolves

Read them all in one place

Become a Member and access our data

Memberships for the 2018/19 campaign are now available for the pre-season price of just £12.50. This will increase to the regular price of £15 after the first Gameweek of the season.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 130+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

CLICK HERE TO BECOME A FANTASY FOOTBALL SCOUT MEMBER

3,777 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bleach †
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Lads,

    If we're thinking short-term only, is Darmian better pick over Shaw perhaps?

    1. cheekumz
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      I think Shaw is only a short termer himself

      1. Bleach †
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Yeah, both are, I was meaning who's more safe pick in short term

    2. Bleach †
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Actually never mind, that sounds silly..

  2. Mayor of Flair
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    I think what we should all do now is.....................tell a few ghost stories!!!

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Benteke last season

    2. Holmes
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Bhoooo....

    3. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Anything to be said for another mass?

  3. conew
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    1. Fabianski, rui patricio, Mendy, Neves
    2. Ederson, 4,0 Gk, Bednarek, Jota

    1. STEP rOVERS
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      1

  4. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Right, some difficult decisions left

    A) sanchez + jota
    B) mane + bilva...both good choices

    1) 5.5m def (Luis/pva) + jota
    2) Daniels (rotation with awb) + bilva
    3) Shaw + Moura/Mkhi

    # Pick one of Arnie / Zaha / Tosun (already have rich but don’t mind doubling up)

  5. PL Ball
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Which combo would you prefer?

    A) Mendy, Robertson + King (No Arsenal players)

    B) 4.5m Def, 4.0m Def + Lacazette

    1. conew
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      a

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      a look for arse gw3 onwards maybe

    3. Slumdog-Mignolet
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      A, comfortably

    4. The Yorkshire Pirlo
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      A

  6. cheekumz
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Sorry for the repost but..

    Any Southhampton fans about? .. How secure is Bednarek to start?

    Also, is Mata worth a punt think week over Townsend or Milivojevic?

    Cheers

    1. Prison Mike
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Mata will be playing RW this week so could get a return

  7. Prison Mike
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    A or B chaps?

    A) Mane & Zaha

    B) Firmino & Lucas Moura

    1. Chris_White
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      A

    2. Adro3
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      A

    3. jg7u
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      I asked exactly the same question but no replies yet, hopefully at least one of us will get some input 🙂

      1. Prison Mike
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Seems A is the favourite!

    4. bobby_bookah
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      b just, bit nervous on zaha output

  8. Adro3
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    3-5-2 with Aguero and Laca and Cairney 5th mid
    or
    3-4-3 with Aguero King Arnie. Cheers

    1. Marcin the Pole
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      B

  9. jimmy.floyd
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Hart or Foster?

  10. RIDZ
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    As Mendy won World Cup, will he start from gw 1?

    1. slove
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      He barely did anything during the world cup , if anything he's well rested

    2. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Probs

  11. MFPL
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Pros and cons for Ben Davies?

    Thanks!

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Poch rotates his full backs often

    2. slove
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Pros:
      - Attacking threat
      - Favoured over Rose
      - Tottenham have a solid defence

      Cons:
      - Played CB a lot of pre season
      - Tottenham do not have a full strength team at the moment
      - May lose more game time this season to Rose
      - Tottenham's fixture aren't fantastic long term

  12. jg7u
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Repost since no replies: which pair is better?

    A) Mane + zaha
    B) Moura + Firmino

    No other Spurs assets.

    1. Prison Mike
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      I just asked the same haha leaning towards Mane Zaha as both are nailed on whereas I’d have BSilva and Moura who both aren’t nailed if I went for B.

  13. Holmes
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Bernard and Richarlison play in same position?

    1. cheekumz
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Doesn't mean they have to play in the same position. Its not unprecidented for a player to actually play better when moved. I personally dont think thtey spent that much to rotate two players when they are weak ellsewhere.

    2. Siggy in the Middle
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Silva talked up Bernard's versatility so he'll probably rotate for the CAM and RW spot.

  14. It's only Carlton Cole…
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Is Chambers likely to start for Fulham? Is he a regular first team player?

  15. TAT
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Bad idea going with Mitrović instead of one of the 7.0s?

    1. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      I am tempted to do it but I don't want to miss out on Arnie points

      1. TAT
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Sure Arnie will deliver in those difficult matches?

    2. Adro3
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Was thinking of that myself but settled on Arnie.

      1. TAT
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Is he THAT fixture proof?

    3. bobby_bookah
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Mitro good option, currently on Tosun though

      1. TAT
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        It's between Mitro, Tosun and Zaha at the moment. Upsides and downsides in choosing all three.

  16. Saint & Reevesy
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Who starts in Utd’s back 4 tonight?

    1. It's only Carlton Cole…
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      I personally think Jones will start but no one agrees with me

      1. Saint & Reevesy
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        He’s who I’ve got in at the moment but I’ve got the wobbles

      2. PL Ball
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Very possible. Depends if Bailly is fit or not.

        Although Smalling would probably come before him atm, since he played some preseason.

    2. PL Ball
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Shaw, Bailly, Lindelof, Darmian is my guess.

      1. Saint & Reevesy
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Thanks I think avoiding the centre back spot makes sense, might go Shaw for a short term approach

  17. flippetyflop
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Best 4.5 defender that isn't Tomkins?

    1. Saint & Reevesy
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      I’m on holbase

      1. bobby_bookah
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        im on wolves def, Holebas if def fit though

    2. Slumdog-Mignolet
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Adam Smith or Kabasele

    3. The_Adam
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Boly
      Kabasele

  18. Ronnies
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Pick 1 please.... ?

    a) steve cook
    b) adam smith
    c) charlie daniels

    Tnks guys.

    1. nikolalfc
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      c

    2. KINGVIZO
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Steve Cook - defo starter!!

      Other 2 could lose their places after a few weeks!!

      Good luck PELLE9!!

    3. STEP rOVERS
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      A

  19. Bielsa's Blue Bucket
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    The best 4.5 rotating keepers are?

    1. Mr. Funny Name
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Foster and patricio

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Fab and Mccarthy rotate perfectly but not convinced about saints def or west ham opening fixtures.

  20. Manumana
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Umm

    A. Laca
    Or
    B. Firmino

    Thx very much

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      don't believe in "cover" but would make that decision on make up of the rest of the team

  21. nyron
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Anyone considering Hart? Heaton and Pope both scored well (partly) due to the way Burnley set up and they have decent fixtures in the first 8 weeks

    1. Dacra
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Yep, in my team.

      Was either Hart + Coleman or Pickford + 5m BUR defence, Hart playing last night made me stick with him (so far)

      1. Kippers
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Harts in my team just to free up cash.

  22. Dacra
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Is Joe Hart nailed now then after playing last night?

    1. bobby_bookah
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      i think dyche will keep him in until he messes up, so probs not

  23. Smurf
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Any news from Klopp on TAA/Clyne?

  24. nikolalfc
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Ben Foster or Begović,
    and,
    will KDB play first game?

    1. DDD909
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Begovic
      KDB not match fit. Doesn't look likely

      1. nikolalfc
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 8 months ago

        Ty

    2. bobby_bookah
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Foster for me and probs not

  25. Please Help I Don't Kn…
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Anyone feel that Vardy is criminally underrated? I think he's one of the best in the world.

    1. AriseSirGiggsy
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Said no one ever

    2. DDD909
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Put down the bong!!

    3. cheekumz
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Trolling?

    4. Andy_Social
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Even now he's Mahrez-free?

    5. Tshelby
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      That's criminally overrated

    6. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      That you Jamesie.

  26. AriseSirGiggsy
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    A) Bilva, Zaha
    B) Cairney, Firmino

    1. Slumdog-Mignolet
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      A, that's what I have any way

  27. KINGVIZO
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    An idea to consider is to have players who take penalties and free kicks in the first 2-3 weeks as there is usually a high number of penalties/free kicks due to tiredness and 2nd string players.

    Is there a more accurate penalty/free kick list we can have access to?

  28. De Gea Van Dijk. 10
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Is Az a Robertson owner.

    This information could be crucial guys.

  29. Danny Fischarge
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Best 6m or less Forward pick out of these?

    A) Austin
    B) Wilson
    C) Gray
    D) Jimenez
    E) Ings
    F) Gabbiadini

    Currently on A.

    1. AriseSirGiggsy
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Reid for me

  30. FCSB
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 8 months ago

    Poll:

    1. Zaha
    2. Arnie

    Ta..

    1. Maximus Bonimus Pointimus
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      Arnie all the way
      Zaha is a frustration merchant
      Nah OJ they’ll both do well
      But Arnie

    2. DV8R
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 8 months ago

      If you can get both then do it, otherwise Arnie