Digest

The FPL Digest: Marko Arnautovic, Brighton and goal conversion rate

Our Gameweek 9 coverage ends with this regular look back at a player, team and discussion point that attracted our interest in the weekend’s matches.

Marko Arnautovic hasn’t rewarded investment in his services over the past two Gameweeks in registering one-point returns against Brighton and Spurs, but with West Ham’s fixtures set to take a turn for the better, there is plenty of encouragement for those sitting on – or considering buying – the talismanic Austrian.

After seven Gameweeks without a clean sheet, Brighton and Hove Albion have registered shut-outs in their last two Premier League matches – but there are few signs of improvement in their underlying defensive statistics despite this.

We also explore perhaps one of the more underappreciated key performance indicators for midfielders and forwards: goal conversion rate.

The Player – Marko Arnautovic

West Ham United and Marko Arnautovic (£7.0m) haven’t found the back of the net in their last two league fixtures but there is little wrong with the Austrian’s underlying attacking statistics.

No FPL forward has had as many penalty box touches, attempts on goal and shots on target than Arnautovic over the last two Gameweeks, with only Joshua King (£6.4m) having had more efforts from inside the opposition box among players in his position.

Hugo Lloris (£5.4m) kept Arnautovic at bay on four occasions at the London Stadium on Saturday, with another of the Austrian’s efforts creeping just wide of the French goalkeeper’s post.

Over the course of the season, Arnautovic ranks second among FPL forwards for penalty box touches and fourth for attempts on goal and shots on target – this despite missing the Gameweek 6 draw against Chelsea, being substituted around the hour mark in three of his eight appearances and managing an underlying knee problem that sometimes prevents him training.

In those three starts that he has made since that stalemate against the Blues, only two strikers have created more chances than Arnautovic.

One slight concern is the injury to Andriy Yarmolenko (£6.8m), who is set to be sidelined for almost the whole of 2018/19 with an Achilles tear.

Arnautovic had started to develop a good understanding with the Ukrainian midfielder and Felipe Anderson (£6.8m), who flanked the Austrian forward either in a 4-3-3 or the 4-2-3-1 that Manuel Pellegrini rolled out on Saturday.

The good news is that Yarmolenko’s inclusion in the starting XI has actually had minimal effect on Arnautovic’s output, with the former Stoke City player’s minutes-per-chance average and rate of big chances actually deteriorating (only slightly) since Yarmolenko started in the Premier League for the first time in Gameweek 5.

The minor worry would perhaps be over who replaces Yarmolenko in his absence.

Grady Diangana (£4.5m) was brought on as a like-for-like replacement for the injured Ukrainian on Saturday, but with Anderson putting in a particularly poor display, Pellegrini subsequently turned to the services of Javier Hernandez (£6.2m) for the first time since Gameweek 4.

The medium-term concern for Arnautovic’s owners was that when Hernandez was fit and firing, the Mexican striker might take Arnautovic’s place as the spearhead of the Hammers’ attack, with the Austrian forward perhaps moved to a slightly more withdrawn supporting role.

The positive news on Saturday was that Arnautovic had more shots on goal (three) in the 33 minutes that “Chicarito” was on the field than in the 57 minutes (two) preceding Hernandez’s introduction.

Pellegrini could, of course, just as easily turn to Diangana, Michail Antonio (£6.8m) or Robert Snodgrass (£5.3m) to take Yarmolenko’s place and retain Arnautovic as the focal point of the Hammers’ attack. There would certainly seem little sense in unsettling West Ham’s biggest goal threat in order to accommodate another asset in attack.

Even if Hernandez was to be given a start, it could be alongside Arnautovic in a 4-3-1-2/4-4-2 rather than as the new central striker.

Whatever happens, there will be plenty of interest in Arnautovic’s services despite his successive blanks: West Ham sit top of our Season Ticker between now and Gameweek 21, with Manchester City the only “big six” club that the Hammers have to face between now and early 2019.

The Team – Brighton and Hove Albion

After recording back-to-back clean sheets, there is plenty of interest in Brighton’s defensive assets for their forthcoming run of fixtures – a sequence of matches that see the Seagulls avoid any of the “big six” until Gameweek 17.

Look a little closer, though, and the south coast side are far from watertight at the back.

29.3% of the shots that Newcastle United have registered this season came in Brighton’s 1-0 win on Tyneside, with no club in Gameweek 9 conceding more goal attempts (27) than Chris Hughton’s troops.

Just two sides allowed more shots in the box, with only Burnley (who were away at Manchester City) allowing more attempts on target.

Brighton’s excellent run of fixtures began just before the international break with a home match against West Ham United, but in the last two Gameweeks, the Seagulls have allowed more shots on goal than any other Premier League club.

While only three of those opportunities were deemed “big chances”, Brighton have the sixth-worst expected goals conceded (xGC) total for Gameweeks 8 and 9 despite the favourable nature of their fixtures.

The Seagulls’ xGC is actually worse than that of Fulham and Newcastle, who have conceded nine and four goals respectively over the last two Gameweeks.

Matthew Ryan (£4.5m), Shane Duffy (£4.5m) and Lewis Dunk (£4.4m) have, of course, benefitted from both the successive shut-outs and the saves and blocks they have had to make en route to those clean sheets.

No goalkeeper has made more saves than Ryan over the last two league matches, while Dunk and Duffy top the CBIs (clearances, blocks and interceptions) table for defenders during this period.

While this is excellent news for their appeal on the Bonus Points System, it does betray the fact that the Brighton backline have allowed a lot of shots on goal in two fixtures against teams in the bottom seven of the Premier League table.

Up next for Brighton are two matches that are not quite as appealing as they seemed in August: Wolves at home and Everton away, with both clubs currently sitting in the top half of the table.

Duffy is attracting particular interest given that he has been involved in four of Brighton’s goals this season, but the Irish defender’s underlying attacking statistics are far from inspiring: 35 FPL defenders have recorded more attempts on goal than Duffy, who has mustered only one shot in five matches against non-“big six” opposition.

While we wouldn’t deter any Fantasy manager from investing in the Brighton backline (particularly given their fixture run from Gameweeks 12-16), the statistics detailed above should at least provide some context as to the Seagulls’ shut-outs in Gameweeks 8 and 9 and act as a caveat to those expecting more clean sheets in the coming weeks.

The Talking Point – Goal Conversion Rate

As Fantasy writers and managers, we at FFS tend to place a lot of emphasis on underlying statistics. Some FPL bosses will, indeed, think that we perhaps focus too much on KPIs such as penalty box touches and attempts on goal.

This has particularly come to the fore this season regarding Arsenal’s attacking assets.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.8m) has scored six goals from as many shots on target in the last half-dozen Gameweeks, repeatedly defying those of us who say his goal-scoring form isn’t sustainable.

Mesut Ozil (£8.4m) has scored three goals from as many shots in his last four league starts, while in the three weeks leading up to Gameweek 9, Alexandre Lacazette (£9.7m) had scored with every one of his three shots on target.

Is goal conversion rate something we should pay more attention to, then?

It is certainly relevant – the “big six” all sit in the top ten for goal conversion among Premier League sides, underscoring the obvious point that better quality players convert a higher proportion of their chances, no matter how many or few.

One only has to look at poor Christian Benteke‘s (£6.3m) KPIs last season – ranked fifth and above the likes of Lacazette, Aubameyang, Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) and Roberto Firmino (£9.3m) for big chances among FPL forwards, the Crystal Palace forward found the back of the net on just three occasions and had the worst goal conversion rate of any first-team striker in 2017/18.

Which brings us back to Aubameyang. Of the FPL forwards who played more than 300 minutes in the Premier League last season, the Gabonese striker had the best goal conversion rate in the division.

Aubameyang’s goal conversion rate in this campaign is remarkably similar to what it was in 2017/18, only behind Glenn Murray (£6.6m) among FPL forwards this season.

Murray’s goal conversion rate was commendable in 2017/18 too and a reminder to us Fantasy managers that a striker needn’t be racking up the shots to break the ten-goal barrier in FPL.

Vardy’s goal conversion rate has been above the magic 20% mark in each of the last three seasons and the Leicester striker scored 20 goals in 2017/18 despite having an average minutes-per-chance rate inferior to that of Benteke, Joselu (£5.0m) and Steve Mounie (£5.8m).

While attacking KPIs such as shots in the box and big chances still play significant roles in our decisions as Fantasy managers, the goal conversion rate is, perhaps, one statistic that we ought to pay more scrutiny to going forward.

Members can view goal conversion rates on the Goal Threat tabs under Players Stats.

Become a Member and access our data

Memberships for the 2018/19 campaign are now available for the price of just £15.

Join now to get the following:

  • Plot your transfer strategies using the fully interactive Season Ticker.
  • Get projections for every Premier League player provided by the Rate My Team statistical model.
  • Use Rate My Team throughout the season to guide your selections and transfers.
  • Get access to over 130+ exclusive members articles over the season.
  • Analyse our OPTA-powered statistic tables specifically tailored for Fantasy Football Managers.
  • Use our exclusive tool to build custom stats tables from over 100 OPTA player and team stats.
  • View heatmaps and expected goals data for every player.
  • Use our powerful comparison tool to analyse players head-to-head.

CLICK HERE TO BECOME A FANTASY FOOTBALL SCOUT MEMBER

448 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Fantasy Gold
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Man City to destroy Spurs at the weekend.

    Might even go Aguero captain.

    1. Nascimento
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Could be a masterstroke

  2. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Eriksen starts. Interesting to see if Kane returns to his old ways in a 4-2-3-1 formation

  3. Emiliano Sala
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Going to have 2 hits in 2 coming weeks 🙁
    This gw to get salah and next gw maybe alonso to mendy and wilson to arnie !

  4. Eddie
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Phew, that is a provocative post pic. Thought Arnie must be injured. No need for the clickbait, I'm going to read it anyway.

    1. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Employ journalists and this is what you get. Can't help themselves.

      1. Skonto Rigga
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • Has Moderation Rights
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 5 months ago

        Im just sitting here chuffed that someone called me a "journalist".

  5. olly:)
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Pat Hart
    Mendy TAA Digne Doherty WB
    Salah Richarl Maddi Fraser Hoj
    Kane Aguero Mitro

    0.3 itb and 2 FTs

    really stuck as what to do with my transfers, want Kane out but unsure who to bring in. Think i should finally get hazard but with this injury think i may hold out for now. Not sure whether TAA is a priority to remove or not as well...

    Maybe something like Kane > Arnie and WB > Robertson (Banking rest of cash) is a good idea? could mean i potentially get Eden in for GW11

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Kane > Arnie is a no brainer

  6. Collie01
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Was hoping to see Aurier starting tonight.

  7. Alan The Llama
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    PSV v Ajax castoffs

  8. Ronnies
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Current defence: Ederson - Hamer - Alonso - Mendy - TAA - WB - Bennett

    I really want Robertson and the only way I can get him is by doing Alonso >>> Robertson otherwise i have to take a hit and im not doing that.

    My plan wud be for GW 10 alonso >> robertson, GW 11 Ederson >> Kepa

    This way I have mendy for city cover, robo for liverpool and kepa for chelsea

    Good idea or bad idea guys ?

    Thanks.

    1. Baps hunter
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Did you now that your username means "clown" in finnish language 😉 Bad idea imo. Robbo plays away vs Arsenal gw11. Find a better solution and downgrade elsewhere.

  9. Monkey Hanger
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Van Bommel a coach now. Can remember him scoring an absolute screamer for the Dutch at the old Wembley.

  10. Could Have Ben Mee
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Thoughts on WC team please. Any obvious changes?

    Ederson (Hamer)
    TAA, Rudiger, Gomez (Doherty, WB)
    Maddison, Salah, Haz, Rich (Biling)
    Arnie, Aguero, Mitrovic

    1. Kun Tozser
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Not feeling the defence
      Maddison a bit meh for me

      1. DAZZ
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 5 months ago

        Why is Maddison 'meh' to you?

    2. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      I've thought of double cheap Liverpool defence too. That pair has at least one starting i guess. Similar team to what i'm planning.

    3. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      All the easy pts coming from the back. I'd want three 6mil plus defenders. TAA currently looking out of the first eleven.

  11. Kun Tozser
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Sterling or KDB?

    1. Kun Tozser
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Not both as I have Mahrez

    2. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Sterling

    3. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      KGB

      1. PAs lag
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 5 months ago

        Sterling

  12. Pukki Party
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Drop one mid-priced player from WC:

    A) Alonso
    B) Maddison
    C) Richarlison
    D) Mitrovic
    E) Arnautovic

    1. Kun Tozser
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      B

      1. Pukki Party
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 5 months ago

        Interesting, passing eye test every time i watch him play.

    2. Dreaming of glory
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      C or D

      1. Pukki Party
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 5 months ago

        Cheers

    3. Brosstan
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      C sucks

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 5 months ago

        C sucks, but D will certainly suck even more when fixtures turn worse.

        1. Goat
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 5 months ago

          Stop talking about sucking please

        2. Pukki Party
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 5 months ago

          My thoughts too (regarding fixtures), but still two good ones coming up.

    4. Emiliano Sala
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Si

  13. SuperMario
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Patricio
    Alonso - Robertson - Doherty
    Salah (c) - Hazard - Richarlison - Maddison
    Aguero - Wilson - Mitrovic

    Button - Zabaletta - Obiang - Bennett

    1 FT, 0 in the bank.

    1. SuperMario
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Roll the transfer yeah???

    2. Pukki Party
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Good team, save

    3. Digital-Real
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      i'd move Rich on

      1. Baps hunter
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 5 months ago

        To whom?!? I would wait and see and consider that later with 2 ft:s if needed.

        1. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 5 months ago

          Downgrading Rich and doing Wilson to Arnie next week might be an option. So save now.

    4. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      yes

  14. Pirlø's Pen
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    This look like a save?

    Patricio
    Mendy Robertson TAA Doherty
    Salah (c) Sterling Hazard Sigurdsson
    Arnautovic Mitrovic

    Button Jiminez Kenedy Balbuena

    1. wulfrunian
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      yes

  15. Dreaming of glory
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Thought on below

    Henessay & ings > lossl & Arnie

    Cant afford hen to a 4.5 keeper unless ings rises or arnie drops and both seem unlikely so lossl is the enabler.

  16. Fantasy Gold
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Kane off the crossbar

  17. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    It is the availability of Eriksen that seems to be the issue with Kane.

    When Eriksen is not available, Poch seems to think that the rest of the midfielders (Moura, Lamela, Son) are crap and can't create anything so gets Kane to go deep and set them up.

    When Eriksen is available, Poch reverts back to playing Kane up front with two of Moura, Son, Lamela pushing on from deep.

    1. Digital-Real
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Has Harry Kane been playing to his level since April this year?

      1. diesel001
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 5 months ago

        Played well at the World Cup at the beginning of the tournament. Did well when he hauled against Huddersfield. Maybe he needs a little rest, but I think Moura, in particular, is an issue for Kane.

  18. Simply Loveleh
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Need help, Murray, trippier or another at 6.7m or less

    1. Goat
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Murray

  19. Maddi Son
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Don't know how I've only just found out about Hazard's back injury. Not heard much about it so I'm guessing it's not that serious? This is all I could find:

    "Tomorrow [he] is out for sure," Sarri told a news conference on Wednesday. He has a back problem and we are trying to solve the problem for Sunday. It's not very easy."

    1. Monkey Hanger
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Back problems always difficult.

  20. My heart goes Salalalalah
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    PSV goal

  21. Monkey Hanger
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Toby dopey.

  22. Am sorry to say again it�…
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Spurs! Sterling triple captain on the weekend it is then 😀

  23. Cilly Bonnolly
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    That's so poor by Alderweireld.

  24. LarryDuff
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Big mistake from Toby

  25. Pierce34
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    I love flashscore commentaries: "The ball hits the back of the net and Moussa Sylla (Monaco) is the one who put it there!"

  26. Giovanni Giorgio
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    TAA owners. What should we do?

    1. fclackless [Brazil Nuts]
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      hang on for 31 minutes

  27. Woy_is_back
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Spurs are an embarrassment in the champions league as always 😀

    1. badgerboy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Gareth Bale shredding Inter says hello.

      1. badgerboy
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 5 months ago

        The Crouch shot at 1:15 always makes me chuckle 😀

    2. Zilla
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      I mean 10-2..

  28. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    With Spurs looking shaky it worth noting Kun already has 2 goals at Wembley this season

    1. Netley Lucas
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      It's worth noting citeh can rip anyone bar pool a new one atm

  29. diesel001
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Spurs goal wrongly disallowed IMO.

    1. Pasqualinho
      • 14 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      No fuss about it from Spurs - do they care?

  30. ⭐ Bemba_Da ⭐
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 5 months ago

    Spurs lauded as this incredible team but have achieved absolutely nothing

    Probably finishing bottom of their group. Embarrassing

    Arsenal were hounded in the press for getting to the last 16 or quarters and beaten by better sides like Bayern or Barcelona in their prime but spurs will be given the unlucky underdog tags

    1. DAZZ
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      I can guarantee you they wont finish bottom of the group.

    2. Woy_is_back
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Spot on!

    3. diesel001
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Spurs are a crap team historically - what have they won in their history?

      Arsenal are a very good team historically, won PL titles, got to a CL final (and other European finals, including a UEFA Cup when it was decent). And under Wenger their standards dropped significantly in the latter third of his tenure.

      All about historical context.

    4. Touré De Force
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      I'll get your coat

    5. Infamy, Infamy
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 5 months ago

      Better to be thought a fool than to open your mouth and confirm it.