Differentials

Morata a tempting differential after four goals in as many games

It’s that time of the week again when we present the cases of three Fantasy Premier League differentials who are all owned by fewer than 3% of FPL bosses.

A much-maligned striker going through a purple patch in front of goal and two midfield gambles are our choices this week, with explanations detailed in the article below.

Alvaro Morata (£8.7m)

FPL ownership: 2.7%

Perhaps the most obvious differential pick for Gameweek 11, the in-form Chelsea striker looks set to return to the Blues’ starting XI for the visit of Everton after being rested in midweek for the Europa League tie against BATE Borisov.

Morata seems to have nailed down a starting spot in the Premier League in the short-term at least, having started the last three fixtures for Maurizio Sarri’s side in the top flight.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.9m) is the only FPL forward who has scored more goals than Morata (four) over the last four Gameweeks, while the Spanish striker has had more shots on target than any player in his position during this period.

No FPL forward has registered more big chances than Morata during the last four rounds of Premier League matches.

Chelsea as a club have also had more attempts on goal and big chances than any other Premier League side from Gameweek 8 onwards.

In Eden Hazard (£11.3m) and Willian (£7.4m), the Blues possess two of the statistically most creative midfielders in the Premier League this season – which could bode well for Morata’s rate of chances against the Toffees.

Marcos Alonso (£7.0m), meanwhile, has already registered as many assists in 2018/19 (seven) as any FPL defender did in the whole of last season.

Everton are one of five Premier League clubs yet to record a clean sheet on the road this season and only three other teams in the division have allowed more big chances than Marco Silva’s troops away from home.

Chelsea also welcome a leaky Fulham side to Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 14, for any FPL manager looking further ahead.

Xherdan Shaqiri (£7.0m)

FPL ownership: 2.3%

A risky pick this, underscored by the fact that our maverick friend Luke singled out Shaqiri as his differential on this week’s Scoutcast.

With James Maddison (£6.9m) ruled out of Gameweek 11 with a knee injury and a mid-price midfield spot up for grabs in many FPL squads in the Leicester City midfielder’s absence, Shaqiri potentially fits the bill as a short-term gamble.

For those Fantasy managers who have the rare luxury of a settled squad, perhaps two free transfers and few fires to put out elsewhere, Shaqiri could be an intriguing, one-week punt who could then be moved on in Gameweek 13, possibly for someone like Anthony Martial (£7.5m).

Those FPL bosses still sitting on their Wildcards and planning to use that chip in the coming weeks also have the fall-back of knowing that Shaqiri could be easily dispensed with without their squads suffering any long-term damage from such a nonconformist gamble.

The reason Shaqiri has entered out thinking for Gameweek 11 is that the Swiss midfielder wasn’t risked for the trip to Belgrade on Tuesday for personal/political reasons and offers Jurgen Klopp fresh legs in one of the attacking midfield positions.

It needn’t take the benching of Mohamed Salah (£13.0m), Roberto Firmino (£9.2m) or Sadio Mane (£9.8m) for Shaqiri to feature, either, as Klopp has rolled out a 4-2-3-1 formation for the Reds’ last two home fixtures against Red Star and Cardiff City.

Adam Lallana (£6.9m) would seem unlikely to feature in one of those positions as he did against the Bluebirds, having flattered to deceive against the Serbian side in midweek.

Shaqiri has delivered three assists in his two league starts for Liverpool this season and came off the bench to score against Neil Warnock’s side in Gameweek 10.

The former Stoke City player also has the best chance creation rate among his Liverpool midfield colleagues in 2018/19 and has a better minutes-per-shot average than Mane.

Liverpool’s opposition needs little introduction, meanwhile, with Fulham having conceded more goals than any other Premier League side this campaign. The Cottagers are also the only club in the top flight yet to keep a clean sheet.

Demarai Gray (£5.4m)

FPL ownership: 1.1%

Facing the Premier League’s leakiest defences in Burnley and Fulham in the next four Gameweeks either side of encounters with Brighton and Watford, Gray is a candidate for those FPL managers who want a Leicester asset for the visit of Sean Dyche’s porous Clarets this weekend.

With Maddison out, Gray’s place in the starting XI looks secure in the short-term – particularly after his goal against Cardiff last weekend.

Daniel Amartey‘s (£4.4m) injury may also aid Gray’s security of starts, with Ricardo Pereira (£5.0m) now seemingly no longer an option in midfield with his services needed at right-back.

Gray has the ability to play wide left as he did against Cardiff last weekend or, perhaps less likely, through the middle – possibly in behind Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) in Maddison’s absence – as he demonstrated against Liverpool in Gameweek 4.

Marc Albrighton (£5.2m) has the edge over Gray creatively and could stand to benefit from Maddison’s absence at set-piece situations, but Gray offers the bigger goal threat, averaging a shot on goal more often than Albrighton this season.

More impressive is his penalty box touch count – Gray has racked up more of those than any Leicester midfielder this season (including Maddison) by some distance and the same number that Ryan Fraser (£6.1m) has managed despite playing almost 400 fewer minutes than the Bournemouth winger.

Burnley, Fulham and Brighton have conceded more shots in the box than the other 17 Premier League sides this season.

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492 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Atimis
    • 2 Years
    3 days, 1 hour ago

    Next week would you do Hart Maddy to Button Martial or Wilson Maddy to Jimenez Martial??

    1. mikess
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      3 days, 1 hour ago

      First for me providing you have a sound gk

  2. mikess
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    3 days, 1 hour ago

    Fabianski
    Alonso, Robertson, Mendy
    Salah(c), Hazard, Sigurdsson, Kenedy, Murphy
    Aguero Arnautovic

    Patricio, Doherty, Yedlin, Kamara

    A) Siggy > Shaqiri

    B) Murphy & Aguero > Mane & Wilson - 4

    1. Paulinho14
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 1 Year
      3 days, 1 hour ago

      would save transfer

      1. mikess
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 days, 1 hour ago

        Cheers

      2. mikess
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        3 days, 1 hour ago

        Not feeling my last 3 mids

        1. TRASH BOAT
          • 5 Years
          3 days, 1 hour ago

          I'd keep Siggy tbh, will get a few points next week for sure...

          1. mikess
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            3 days, 1 hour ago

            Yeah hopefully

    2. JustPark
      • 2 Years
      3 days, 36 mins ago

      Save

    3. WYD_11
        2 days, 13 hours ago

        I would save Siggy. Has Cardiff at Home next week.

      • WYD_11
          2 days, 13 hours ago

          Gameweek* (after IB)

      • premierglaser
        • 5 Years
        3 days, 1 hour ago

        Here's the squad... 0.2 ITB, 2FT. Thinking -4: Mitro + Maddison + Foster --> Laca + 4.4 mid + 4.0 gk, madness? This is a pretty short term move, haven't WCd yet.

        Fab-Foster

        Alonso - Robertson - Mendy - Doherty - WBA

        Haz - Mane - Maddison - Rich - 4.4

        Aguero - Arnie - Mitro

        Alternatives?

        1. mikess
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          3 days, 1 hour ago

          No for me

      • gryffsonofarthur
          3 days, 1 hour ago

          For all those Salah triple captainers, what's the most likely outcome
          :
          A) Blank
          B) 6
          C)10
          D)12)
          E) MONSTER HAUL!

          1. mikess
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            3 days, 1 hour ago

            D

          2. Paulinho14
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            3 days, 1 hour ago

            D

        • Paulinho14
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 1 Year
          3 days, 1 hour ago

          play two out of these 3:

          a) Mendy
          b) Doherty
          c) Success

          1. mikess
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            3 days, 1 hour ago

            A c

        • Weasel51
          • 2 Years
          3 days, 1 hour ago

          Worth a -8 (over 2 weeks) ?

          Hennessey, Trippier, AWB, Bilva and Fraser

          >>>>

          Fabianski, Doherty, Mendy, Felipe Anderson and Hojberg

          1. Paulinho14
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 1 Year
            3 days, 1 hour ago

            no. never do a -8 before international week

          2. mikess
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 8 Years
            3 days, 1 hour ago

            Difficult to say

          3. gryffsonofarthur
              3 days, 1 hour ago

              No

            • TRASH BOAT
              • 5 Years
              3 days, 1 hour ago

              Why not I've done it over one, but it's for Arnie and Anderson so injury permitting its for two months...

          4. Santa Monica love
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            3 days, 1 hour ago

            Sterling + Fraser to Salah + diangana for s hit ?...can't resist Salah tbh

            1. mikess
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              3 days, 1 hour ago

              Alternative captain choice?

              1. Santa Monica love
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                3 days, 1 hour ago

                got kun haz Arnie

          5. Shifty
            • 5 Years
            3 days, 1 hour ago

            Really struggling with this one and need some help!

            Foster - Patricio
            Alonso VVD Mendy Doherty AWB
            Salah Hazard Fraser Richarlison Stephens
            Aguero Arnautovic Ings

            2 FT but 0 in the bank

            Can't see anything obvious and I really want to have 2 FT over the international break because I could make some nice swaps and some time to mull over Salah, Mane and Sterling.

            Any thoughts? Or burn the FT.

            Thanks!

            1. mikess
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              3 days, 1 hour ago

              Burning feels right I think

              1. Shifty
                • 5 Years
                3 days, 52 mins ago

                yeah...just needed a sense check. thanks

            2. Laurenzo
              • 3 Years
              3 days, 19 mins ago

              Depending on your international break swap plans - you could take out Ings for 4.5 and bank the cash

            3. RamaLangaDingDong
                2 days, 22 hours ago

                Foster to Ryan or Fabianski...?

            4. The Big Fella
              • 2 Years
              3 days, 1 hour ago

              I am debating shifting Mendy out for Laporte. On the surface, it may seem sideways but I missed his hauls at the beginning of the season and now his attacking potential is lessened depending who Pep plays on the wing whereas they both get CS points. I have earnt 1 or 2 assists with him only. It will get me a precious 0.3m. Does anybody have an opinion on this?

              1. MTPockets
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 9 Years
                3 days, 58 mins ago

                Maybe if/when you need the 0.3m, but wouldn't do it for the sake of money itb

                1. The Big Fella
                  • 2 Years
                  3 days, 43 mins ago

                  Hmmmm I will think about it. I have 0ITB and STILL have Peltier. I wanted to sell Salah after this week for Sterling (keeping Mane) and then upgrade Wilson to Morata but I think Morata has gone up 0.1 because I am now just short. If Salah scores 1 or 2 though, he will go up in value (as will Mane if he does)

              2. VeryHairyBabyParade
                  3 days, 35 mins ago

                  Basically weakening your team unless that 0.3 is needed for a massive upgrade.

                  1. The Big Fella
                    • 2 Years
                    3 days, 32 mins ago

                    How is it weakening it though? Laporte has more points than Mendy (although Mendy did miss 3 games) and his attacking points have dried up a little

                    1. VeryHairyBabyParade
                        3 days, 22 mins ago

                        He's got one point less than Laporte, with less game time, and has outscored Laporte by a few points since his return. It's a downgrade to swap these players.

                        1. The Big Fella
                          • 2 Years
                          3 days, 20 mins ago

                          Hmmm I will think on it. It won't be this week anyway. I am looking to use my WC in a couple of GWs

                • Occupational Hazard
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 1 Year
                  3 days, 56 mins ago

                  Maddison and Fraser to Mane and Diangana for -4? Already have Salah and Wilson.

                • Niho992
                    3 days, 55 mins ago

                    Whos on penalties in Newc?

                    1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
                      • 8 Years
                      3 days, 36 mins ago

                      Kenedy

                  • Hart Ake
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 2 Years
                    3 days, 47 mins ago

                    Is Bilva > Martial worth it this week for FT?

                    Or just wait til next week?

                    Cheers.

                    1. The Big Fella
                      • 2 Years
                      3 days, 40 mins ago

                      It is going to be a low scoring game in my opinion so I would wait unless you think there may be price changes between now and then

                    2. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
                      • 8 Years
                      3 days, 35 mins ago

                      Do it martial will score

                      1. The Big Fella
                        • 2 Years
                        3 days, 21 mins ago

                        I don't think either will and I think both will get 2 points so he may as well as wait to see if Martial gets injured or whatever

                  • Rinseboy
                    • 6 Years
                    3 days, 41 mins ago

                    who would you bench from
                    Doherty Yedlin Brooks or Success?!

                    currently on Yedlin but worried Success won't even start!

                    1. VeryHairyBabyParade
                        3 days, 38 mins ago

                        Doherty

                        1. Rinseboy
                          • 6 Years
                          3 days, 37 mins ago

                          if I'm honest I actually really wanna play him!

                          1. VeryHairyBabyParade
                              3 days, 20 mins ago

                              Odd. Yedlin then I suppose.

                      • Lignja
                        • 1 Year
                        3 days, 41 mins ago

                        Can I get some help on this team, have no idea what to do...

                        Fabianski
                        Alonso, Robertson, Doherty
                        Salah, Hazard, Richarlison, Madison
                        Aguero, Wilson, Arnautovic

                        Hamer, Hojberg, Wb, Bennett 1 ft 0.5 itb

                        1. WYD_11
                            2 days, 13 hours ago

                            Could get Felipe Anderson for Maddison for a punt. Nice run of fixtures except Man C in GW13.

                        2. Chelsea Psycho
                          • 3 Years
                          3 days, 35 mins ago

                          AWB or Billing first sub?

                          1. korbendallas82
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 5 Years
                            2 days, 13 hours ago

                            Billing. Palace to poor.

                            1. korbendallas82
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 5 Years
                              2 days, 13 hours ago

                              Billing first sub. Sorry.

                              1. korbendallas82
                                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                • 5 Years
                                2 days, 13 hours ago

                                Billing.

                                1. korbendallas82
                                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                  • 5 Years
                                  2 days, 13 hours ago

                                  Bling.

                        3. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
                          • 8 Years
                          3 days, 35 mins ago

                          Takeout

                          A kfc
                          B fish n chips

                          1. Chelsea Psycho
                            • 3 Years
                            3 days, 34 mins ago

                            KFC chicken with chip shop chips. Easy

                            1. Harry Ball Bag™⚽⚽…
                              • 8 Years
                              3 days, 30 mins ago

                              Good idea never thought of doing that

                        4. Gamer18
                            3 days, 8 mins ago

                            Should I make any changes?
                            Rui
                            Robertson Trippier Mendy
                            Willian Maddison Richarlison Salah
                            Aguero Lacazette Wilson

                            Speroni WB Peltier Stephens
                            2 FT
                            0.2 ITB
                            wildcard still available.

                            1. zm82
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 3 Years
                              2 days, 19 hours ago

                              Maddison is injured and I would replace him, but then he will likely return for the next game week so it is not an easy choice. Maybe bring someone cheaper this week to enable you to get Martial after the international break as he has some good fixtures and is scoring goals in almost every game.

                          • jp1
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 5 Years
                            2 days, 21 hours ago

                            Anyone see the ‘bollocking on bbc’!