Spot the Differential

Morata a tempting differential after four goals in as many games

It’s that time of the week again when we present the cases of three Fantasy Premier League differentials who are all owned by fewer than 3% of FPL bosses.

A much-maligned striker going through a purple patch in front of goal and two midfield gambles are our choices this week, with explanations detailed in the article below.

Alvaro Morata (£8.7m)

FPL ownership: 2.7%

Perhaps the most obvious differential pick for Gameweek 11, the in-form Chelsea striker looks set to return to the Blues’ starting XI for the visit of Everton after being rested in midweek for the Europa League tie against BATE Borisov.

Morata seems to have nailed down a starting spot in the Premier League in the short-term at least, having started the last three fixtures for Maurizio Sarri’s side in the top flight.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.9m) is the only FPL forward who has scored more goals than Morata (four) over the last four Gameweeks, while the Spanish striker has had more shots on target than any player in his position during this period.

No FPL forward has registered more big chances than Morata during the last four rounds of Premier League matches.

Chelsea as a club have also had more attempts on goal and big chances than any other Premier League side from Gameweek 8 onwards.

In Eden Hazard (£11.3m) and Willian (£7.4m), the Blues possess two of the statistically most creative midfielders in the Premier League this season – which could bode well for Morata’s rate of chances against the Toffees.

Marcos Alonso (£7.0m), meanwhile, has already registered as many assists in 2018/19 (seven) as any FPL defender did in the whole of last season.

Everton are one of five Premier League clubs yet to record a clean sheet on the road this season and only three other teams in the division have allowed more big chances than Marco Silva’s troops away from home.

Chelsea also welcome a leaky Fulham side to Stamford Bridge in Gameweek 14, for any FPL manager looking further ahead.

Xherdan Shaqiri (£7.0m)

FPL ownership: 2.3%

A risky pick this, underscored by the fact that our maverick friend Luke singled out Shaqiri as his differential on this week’s Scoutcast.

With James Maddison (£6.9m) ruled out of Gameweek 11 with a knee injury and a mid-price midfield spot up for grabs in many FPL squads in the Leicester City midfielder’s absence, Shaqiri potentially fits the bill as a short-term gamble.

For those Fantasy managers who have the rare luxury of a settled squad, perhaps two free transfers and few fires to put out elsewhere, Shaqiri could be an intriguing, one-week punt who could then be moved on in Gameweek 13, possibly for someone like Anthony Martial (£7.5m).

Those FPL bosses still sitting on their Wildcards and planning to use that chip in the coming weeks also have the fall-back of knowing that Shaqiri could be easily dispensed with without their squads suffering any long-term damage from such a nonconformist gamble.

The reason Shaqiri has entered out thinking for Gameweek 11 is that the Swiss midfielder wasn’t risked for the trip to Belgrade on Tuesday for personal/political reasons and offers Jurgen Klopp fresh legs in one of the attacking midfield positions.

It needn’t take the benching of Mohamed Salah (£13.0m), Roberto Firmino (£9.2m) or Sadio Mane (£9.8m) for Shaqiri to feature, either, as Klopp has rolled out a 4-2-3-1 formation for the Reds’ last two home fixtures against Red Star and Cardiff City.

Adam Lallana (£6.9m) would seem unlikely to feature in one of those positions as he did against the Bluebirds, having flattered to deceive against the Serbian side in midweek.

Shaqiri has delivered three assists in his two league starts for Liverpool this season and came off the bench to score against Neil Warnock’s side in Gameweek 10.

The former Stoke City player also has the best chance creation rate among his Liverpool midfield colleagues in 2018/19 and has a better minutes-per-shot average than Mane.

Liverpool’s opposition needs little introduction, meanwhile, with Fulham having conceded more goals than any other Premier League side this campaign. The Cottagers are also the only club in the top flight yet to keep a clean sheet.

Demarai Gray (£5.4m)

FPL ownership: 1.1%

Facing the Premier League’s leakiest defences in Burnley and Fulham in the next four Gameweeks either side of encounters with Brighton and Watford, Gray is a candidate for those FPL managers who want a Leicester asset for the visit of Sean Dyche’s porous Clarets this weekend.

With Maddison out, Gray’s place in the starting XI looks secure in the short-term – particularly after his goal against Cardiff last weekend.

Daniel Amartey‘s (£4.4m) injury may also aid Gray’s security of starts, with Ricardo Pereira (£5.0m) now seemingly no longer an option in midfield with his services needed at right-back.

Gray has the ability to play wide left as he did against Cardiff last weekend or, perhaps less likely, through the middle – possibly in behind Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) in Maddison’s absence – as he demonstrated against Liverpool in Gameweek 4.

Marc Albrighton (£5.2m) has the edge over Gray creatively and could stand to benefit from Maddison’s absence at set-piece situations, but Gray offers the bigger goal threat, averaging a shot on goal more often than Albrighton this season.

More impressive is his penalty box touch count – Gray has racked up more of those than any Leicester midfielder this season (including Maddison) by some distance and the same number that Ryan Fraser (£6.1m) has managed despite playing almost 400 fewer minutes than the Bournemouth winger.

Burnley, Fulham and Brighton have conceded more shots in the box than the other 17 Premier League sides this season.

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492 Comments Post a Comment
  1. DROP IT LIKE IT'S HART
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Martial was going to be my replacement for Maddison next GW. Now that he's out I'm thinking of bringing in another mid with a more favorable fixture and chance of scoring well this GW and get Martial over the international break with my 2FTs. Felipe Anderson?

    1. pressdpm
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I'm thinking of getting Shaqiri. Kind of short term though as his minutes aren't exactly guaranteed. Though I do think he'll start this week.

    2. *sigh*
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Huddersfield improving defensively so I would just get Martial in now.Could be there will be another fire to put out next week and you won’t be able to get him in.

    3. Sánchez
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      You scared me there. That sounded like Martial was out.

    4. pjomara
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      What's wrong with Martial?

      1. GREEN IS GOOD
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        This is like Chinese whispers.

        1. KingOllie
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 4 months ago

          Martial is now flagged on FPL due to this

    5. Dude1234
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Martial is out?

  2. Tsparkes10
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Was going to do H-Odoi to Kenedy but tempted to get in Gomez or Chillwell for TAA

    1. pressdpm
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Either of those are good options for TAA, I'd do that move.

  3. pressdpm
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    1FT and nothing in the bank, any advice?
    Some dead wood creeping in, Mitrovic > Ings sound good?

    Fabianski
    Alonso - Shaw - Robertson
    Salah - Hazard - Richarlison - Maddison
    Mitrovic - Aguero - Jiminez

    Stekelenburg - Bennett - Wan Bissaka - Biling

    1. GREEN IS GOOD
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Ings plays for Southampton so not for me. Success? As in the Watford player.

      1. pressdpm
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Ings with a couple of nice fixtures at least though, but I get your point.

    2. Don Van Vliet
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Murray is proven and has better fixtures. Avoid the Success bandwagon.

      1. pressdpm
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Hadn't considered Murray actually, thanks

  4. Dosh
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Sterling to Mane for free or Salah for a hit? Only other way to get one of them is to sell Kun.

    Got only Shaq from the Liverpool attack.

    1. french holiday
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Mane for free and captain

  5. Geoff
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • Has Moderation Rights
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    New Community Article from circusmonkey looking at betting odds:

    https://www.fantasyfootballscout.co.uk/2018/11/09/shouting-the-odds-who-the-bookies-back-in-gameweek-12/

  6. theodosios
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    There will be a lot of hits this week

    1. french holiday
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      hits dosent matter if you pick the right players

  7. TLF
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Bench 1

    1. Jiminez
    2. Knockaert
    3. Camarasa

    1. Runaway
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      2

      1. TLF
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        You know Knockaerts a starter this week right ?

  8. CelticBhoy1
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Hi guys, GTG? Got 1 FT and 0.1 ITB

    Ryan
    Robertson Mendy Alonso
    Mane(c) Rich Haz Fraser
    Vardy Aguero Wilson

    Subs: Speroni Bennett Wan-B Hojbjerg

  9. n-doggg
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Disappointing that Barkley played last night, probably won’t start weekend now. Who would you start out if these:

    A. Barkley (EVE)
    B. Success (sou)
    C. AWB (TOT)
    D. Bennet (ars)

    1. A.T
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      B

  10. Strchld
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Martial or Pogba if money no issue?
    And please, why?

    1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Martial

  11. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    What are chances of 1 of these playing (at least getting a cameo)?
    Rich,TAA

    1. Strchld
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      TAA won't come in If he doesnt start imo. I have same feelings with Richarlison

    2. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      TAA injured or doubt?

      1. ⚔★Vibudh★⚔
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Big rotation risk

  12. Lignja
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Fabianski
    Alonso, Robertson, Doherty
    Salah, Hazard, Richarlison, Madison
    Aguero, Wilson, Arnautovic

    Hamer, Hojberg, Wb, Bennett 1 ft 0.5 itb

    A. Madison, Bennet for Mendy and Diangana -4 ( I know it is -4 for City deff vs Utd but I'll get Mendy long therm and will have Diangana to step in for Richarlison if he miss)
    B. Madison to F.Anderson or Shaqiri

  13. Tsparkes10
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Gomez or Chillwell or other for TAA? Got 5.6 itb

    1. french holiday
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Yedlin long term

  14. IN SANE IN DE BRUYNE
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    With Richarlison a doubt I have possibly zero bench and not full starting XI. What should I do?

    Ederson
    Alonso Robbo Mendy TAA* Balbuena
    Salah Hazard
    Agüero Wilson Ings

    Richa* Maddison* Elneny*

    A) Maddison -> max 6.7 (-4)
    B) Maddison + Ings -> Brooks + Arnie (-8)
    C) Other option
    D) do nothing, hope for the best

    1. french holiday
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      B

  15. luke25
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Getting frustrated with Vardy now,

    Mahrez + Vardy --> Mane and Morata for -4?

    Thanks

    1. french holiday
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Yes. Acceptable moves with fixtures.

  16. WE GO FOR IT
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Foster | Patricio
    Robertson | Mendy | Trippier | AWB | Kelly
    Hazard | Mane | Maddison* | Hughes* | Billing
    Kun | Firmino | Wilson

    2FT and 0.4itb
    Maddison and Hughes out makes the most sense but who do I get to replace them? Will have 12.3 to replace both of them.

    Pick one of each:

    A. Felipe
    B. Lucas
    C. Richarlison

    1. Brooks
    2. Redmond

    1. Winston.
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      C1 but Rich a doubt this gw

      1. WE GO FOR IT
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Rich doubt is the only reason I was inclined towards Felipe

  17. French Gooner
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    I just did Sterling > Mane
    That was tough :S

  18. Turns
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Just brought Lamela in for Maddison as a punt. Worried about minutes once Alli and Eriksen back, but think he might grab a goal or two against Palace

    1. Oven Glover
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Thanks for letting us know.

      1. built_this_city
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        innit, no one cares

        1. Turns
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 4 months ago

          Funny lads you too. Was just throwing it out for comment.

    2. BOATIES FC
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Do you think he will start against Palace? I'm looking at the same move. Other options are fraser and pereya but not keen on either

      1. Turns
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        I think he will. Was rested in champs league

  19. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Best option?

    Mitro and Maddison to...

    A. Ings and Martial
    B. Wilson and Deulofeu/Pereyra

    Thanks.

    1. french holiday
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. pressdpm
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I'm thinking of doing A myself.

      -4 hit?

      1. french holiday
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        yeah if u got mitro and madd

    3. HNI
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Personally like A if you already have Jimenez and Arnie.
      Can advice me below mate?

      1. french holiday
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        If u have jiminez then dont get Ings

  20. Tsparkes10
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    TAA, Schurlle to VVD, playing 4.5 this week?
    Vardy, H-Odoi to Arni, Rich (-4) next week?

  21. #FPLBhuna
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Transfers done, thank you to all those that offered advice - good luck for the gw. May your arrows be green!

    Mitrovic, Barkley, Kane >> Arnie, Salah(c), Ings (-8)

    1. KingOllie
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Good luck mate

      1. #FPLBhuna
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks pal

    2. Oven Glover
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Fabulous. Just fabulous. Proper FPL guru.

      1. Oven Glover
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        I really like how you brought in Barkley gw11 just to ship him gw12. Guru by name, Guru by modus operandi.

        1. #FPLBhuna
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 4 months ago

          Yep it wasnt my best move

          Binned moura > barkley for a hit last gw

          Luckily Hazard > sterling(c) -4 saved my blushes somewhat

          1. Oven Glover
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 4 months ago

            Won’t be long until you’re in the HOF top 10.

            1. #FPLBhuna
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 4 months ago

              Lol yeah that won’t be happening anytime in the near future

              Sadly my overall ranking history

              A) doesn’t go back far enough
              B) isn’t the best

              But onwards and upwards never say never

    3. Dr. Mantis Toboggan
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      They look good, best of luck

      1. #FPLBhuna
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        cheers doc

    4. HNI
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      You were sure of Barkley losing his place?

      1. #FPLBhuna
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Im pretty confident yes. If he plays then so be it but Ive gone with my gut. Played a full 90 midweek while a number of players were hauled off early and he didnt look great.

        Plus I wouldnt want him for spurs away

        1. HNI
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 4 months ago

          Hmm interesting. Can advice me below mate. Have Barkley situation as well

      2. Ginola14
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        thank god

    5. Obi-1 Kenobi-0
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Have you seen Kane’s fixtures between GW15 to 27? Assume you’ll want him back for those.

      1. #FPLBhuna
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        I’ll bring him back, just recently he hasn’t passed the eye test for me and Eriksen and Dele aren’t 100% fit so are being phased back slowly. Don’t imagine they’ll both feature this week.

        Plus with Chelsea and arsenal on the horizon I didn’t want him for those games despite his good record against London clubs.

        Given he’s hardly owned amongst the top 100k it shouldn’t burn me too much even if he was to put together a run.

  22. Tabbara
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Save FT?
    Fabianski
    Zabelata,Doherty,Alonso Mendy
    Kennedy Salah Hazard Richarlison
    Aguero Arnautovic

    Button,Mitrovic,Camarasa,Bennett,

  23. George James
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Anything worth a hit or GTG?
    0.7itb

    Mcarthy
    TAA • Mendy • Alonso
    Hazard • Fraser • Rich* • Salah (c)
    Kun • Wilson • Arnie

    Hennessy / AWB / Billing / Bennet

    1. HNI
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Good for now. Probably do taa/Bennett to Doherty next gw

  24. HNI
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Currently around 1600 overall and need some advice of transfer to compete all the way post dec with 500 rank

    Team
    Fabianski 4mn
    Alonso Mendy Robertson Doherty cheapie
    Salah Hazard Richarlison Barkley* cheapie
    Kun* Wilson Arnie
    0mn ITB

    1) Save FT hoping Barkley starts but unlikely having played entire Europa match
    2) Kun + cheap mid to Jiminez + Mane -4
    3) Hazard to Mane and then get back Haz for fulham home
    4) Barkley to Murphy as Rich doubtful too so only Doherty bench cover

    I know 1st looks best but dont want to lose opportunity on Mane to rise in ranks like I did vs Cardiff

    1. Pat Bonner
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I would def save. Long way to go and you’ve got a fantastic rank so seems crazy to get rid of Aguero or hazard. Doherty is a decent sub

      1. HNI
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Thanks Pat. Barkley punt dint work but oh well at least got price rise. How your rank uphill going? 🙂

    2. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I think save mate.

  25. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    So what’s the deal with TAA then?

    Why are most sure he’s not starting v Fulham? Was anything mentioned in their press conference?

    1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Poor last couple of games, Gomez and Lovren fit.

      1. DaisyDaisyDaisyDaisy
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 4 months ago

        Its not the not playing that concerns me but a cameo appearance...

    2. KingOllie
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Gomez and Lovren fit. TAA played 45mins midweek and got hooked. He also played last GWK and was quite bad

    3. A.T
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      It’s just because he got taken off at half time midweek.

    4. HNI
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      We has been playing quite horrible lately and against Red star Belgrade he pulled a Karius. Can advice me above mate?

    5. J ⚒ Gimme ur Mané
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      Thanks all

  26. Merlinho
    • 14 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Mitro to Arnie and Maddison to ????

    £6.3m to spend, I have Barkley and Richarlison - prime options seem to be Fraser, Brooks, Gray, Gudmundson, Deulofeu.

    I'm tempted by Brooks, despite fixtures - frees up some cash which I can use to swap out of Barkley going forward and his stats are looking good with King out. Any thoughts?

  27. Smudger’s Dirty Dozen
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Ederson
    Robertson, Alonso, Mendy
    Salah (c), Fraser, Maddison*,Barkley
    Laca, Kun, Wilson
    Subs Hamer, Doherty, Guendouzi, AWB 1ft and 0.3mITB

    What to do this week?
    A Stick and play Doherty
    B Maddy to Richarlison
    C Maddy to Shaqiri
    D Maddy to Pereya

    1. SAKA AND EMILE SMITH ROWE
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      A, Richarlison is the only one I'd bring in and he's a doubt

  28. On your left
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Hi Folks. GTG? Got 0 FT and 2.6 itb to find Stirling move after the break.

    Ederson
    Rob, Alonso, Trip
    Haz, Shaq, Salah (c), fras
    Succ, Arnie, Jimenez

    Bench: Hen, WB, Lapo, Torrera

  29. Stevie B
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    What to do with this lot?

    Foster (Fabianski)
    Robertson, Alonso, Laporte (Balbuena) (Wan-Bissaka)
    Salah (C), Hazard, Fraser, Richarlison (Hudson-Odoi)
    Agüero, Arnautovic, Wilson

    Thank you!

    1. On your left
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      I would play Fab and Balbuena. Bench Laporte

  30. Mackans
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 4 months ago

    Pick one to start:

    A: Zabaleta (hud)
    B: Doherty (ars)
    C: Richarlison (che)

    1. french holiday
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      A

    2. Lambey
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 4 months ago

      A