Digest

The FPL Digest: The pros and cons of in-form Son

Our regular critique of a player, team and discussion point that attracted our interest in the weekend’s matches returns – even though, of course, we still have one fixture of Gameweek 25 outstanding.

The most-transferred-in Fantasy Premier League asset of Gameweek 26 is the focus of our player profile, while the side taking on Mohamed Salah and co. this weekend are also analysed.

We also stress the importance of FA Cup fifth round weekend on the blanks and doubles ahead.

The Player – Son Heung-min

While The Digest generally strays away from the obvious candidates when it comes to player analysis, it seems perverse to continually ignore a Fantasy asset who has delivered attacking returns in 11 of his last 12 Premier League starts and who is at the centre of more transfer activity than any other FPL player ahead of Gameweek 26.

Son Heung-min (£8.7m) has ten goals and seven assists from Gameweek 11 onwards, with not even Mohamed Salah (£13.6m) able to match those 17 attacking returns during the period in question.

The Korean’s latest double-digit haul owed a lot to luck, of course, with Newcastle United goalkeeper Martin Dubravka (£5.0m) making a complete hash of Son’s well-hit but eminently saveable 20-yard effort that ended up securing the Lilywhites all three points.

Still, Son’s underlying statistics suggest the goal didn’t come completely out of the blue: no FPL midfielder had more attempts on goal than the South Korea international in Gameweek 25 (so far), with Son ranking third among his peers for touches and passes received in the final third.

Despite Son playing the bulk of the win over Newcastle on the left flank, only four midfielders had more penalty box touches than the in-form Spurs player at the weekend.

When FPL midfielders are filtered by their last four matches, Son sits second for attempts on goal, third for penalty box touches, joint-third for shots on target and joint-fourth for efforts in the opposition area.

It should be noted, however, that Son has only had one big chance in Gameweeks 21-25 and sits 22nd among players in his position for expected goals (xG) when midfielders are filtered by their last four matches.

According to the Opta numbers, no FPL midfielder is overachieving more than Son when compared to their expected goal output during the above timeframe.

Certainly, Son hadn’t really looked like scoring before his 82nd-minute strike on Saturday: three of the Korean’s preceding four attempts on goal were blocked, with the other 25-yard effort sailing harmlessly off-target.

All four of Son’s shots before his goal came from the left side of the pitch and it was perhaps no coincidence that his match-winning strike only happened after a tactical reshuffle from Mauricio Pochettino late on.

Son had initially lined up on the left-hand side of a 4-2-3-1, with his touch heatmap below showing how wasted he was out on the flank:

The 78th-minute introduction of Danny Rose (£5.8m) on the left wing was a game-changer, with Pochettino switching to a 3-5-2 and pushing Son alongside Fernando Llorente (£5.7m) up front.

The hope for existing and prospective owners of Son is that Pochettino has learned a lesson about his initial team selection on Saturday, with the Korean’s previous Fantasy success coming almost exclusively when played centrally in a 4-4-2 diamond or variations thereof.

The fact that Llorente has assisted both of Son’s strikes over the last two Gameweeks perhaps indicates that Harry Kane‘s (£12.4m) availability isn’t integral to the Korean midfielder’s FPL appeal – but where Pochettino plays him is.

It could be argued that Spurs’ fixtures aren’t actually that great in the coming two Gameweeks ahead of a double-header against Chelsea and Arsenal.

The 4-3 anomaly at Wolves aside, Leicester have proven to be tough cookies against both Liverpool and Manchester United in the last seven days, restricting their “big six” opposition to one goal apiece and a combined two big chances.

Only the current top four have conceded fewer goals than the Foxes in 2018/19, with Claude Puel’s side sitting in the top six for fewest attempts on goal, shots on target and big chances conceded this campaign.

Burnley, meanwhile, have tightened up considerably after their early-season struggles: only Manchester United have conceded fewer goals in the last six Gameweeks.

The Clarets’ improved performances had started in December and Sean Dyche’s side came within minutes of frustrating Spurs at Wembley in Gameweek 17, only for a last-gasp Christian Eriksen (£9.3m) strike to break the deadlock.

Son remains an undeniably excellent prospect, of course, and those “unsustainable” returns have, as it turns out, sustained for the best part of three months now.

The sheer numbers drafting Son into their teams – over 400,000 before Gameweek 25 and another 200,000 already this week – is a scary prospect too, for those daring to go without the Korean based on any of the doubts expressed above or elsewhere.

One final caveat for those steadily building a team ahead of Blank Gameweek 31 (more on which below): despite having been knocked out of the FA Cup, Spurs will still be without a Premier League fixture in Gameweeks 31 and 33 if Crystal Palace and Brighton progress to the quarter-finals and semi-finals of the domestic cup competition respectively.

The Team – Bournemouth

Owners of Liverpool’s defensive assets will be getting twitchy given that the Reds are on a run of only one clean sheet in the last six Gameweeks, with injuries having seemingly taken a toll on their hitherto reliable solidity.

Liverpool’s fallibility at set plays is of particular concern, with Jurgen Klopp’s side having conceded three goals in as many Gameweeks from dead-ball situations.

Owners of Ryan Fraser (£6.1m) will be particularly encouraged by that statistic, as well as the fact that the Reds allowed eight chances from corners and free-kicks against West Ham United on Monday.

The Cherries are something of a Jekyll-and-Hyde team, however, having followed up their comprehensive thrashing of Chelsea in Gameweek 24 with a limp 2-0 defeat at Cardiff on Saturday.

Fortunately for us Fantasy managers who like neat patterns and predictable form, Bournemouth’s performances have become formulaic.

Eddie Howe’s side remain a force to be reckoned with on their own soil, having lost only once in their last six league matches at the Vitality Stadium, winning four.

Away from home, however, the Cherries are diabolical, losing their last seven successive Premier League fixtures on the road and conceding more goals (20) than any of their divisional rivals along the way.

Howe’s side have hit the back of the net on only three occasions in those fixtures, which would be of some encouragement to owners of Andrew Robertson (£6.8m) et al ahead of the two clubs’ meeting at Anfield on Saturday.

When Premier League sides are ranked by their last half-dozen away matches, the Cherries sit joint-17th for big chances created.

It should be pointed out, however, that only Brighton have carved out more opportunities from set plays away from home than Bournemouth in the period studied.

The Cherries didn’t even hit double figures for attempts on goal against Cardiff, with only two of their shots forcing a save.

The loss of David Brooks (£5.1m) to injury has further neutralised Bournemouth’s goal threat, with Callum Wilson (£6.4m) also currently on the sidelines with a knee problem.

Liverpool have struggled to carve out many chances in the last two Gameweeks but the omens are positive for this weekend: Howe’s troops have conceded the most goals and big chances when Premier League sides are filtered by their last six away fixtures.

Nathaniel Clyne (£4.4m) has impressed since making a loan move from Anfield but he will be ineligible to face his parent club this weekend, leaving a void at right-back.

Adam Smith (£4.3m) would seem likely to move across from left-back to cover in his usual position, but the prospect of Salah – if stationed right – up against veteran Charlie Daniels or the unproven Diego Rico (both £4.1m) is an appetising one.

And, lest we forget, Bournemouth’s only home defeat in the last two months was a 4-0 thrashing at the hands of Liverpool – Salah posting his highest score (21 points) of the season in the process.

The Talking Point – The FA Cup Fifth Round

The most important weekend of the FPL season might be one in which no Premier League matches are held.

The fifth round of the FA Cup takes place from Friday 15 to Monday 18 February and, given that replays have now been abolished from this stage of the competition, we will finally learn the extent of the second – and possibly most crucial – Blank Gameweek of the season once the full-time whistle blows at Stamford Bridge in little under two weeks’ time.

Gameweek 27 was/is viewed as something of a navigable mini-blank as only four teams – Manchester City, Everton, Chelsea and Brighton – will be without a Premier League fixture.

Gameweek 31 was always likely to be the most destructive Gameweek of the season, given that it clashes with the FA Cup fifth round, but the frequent giant-killings of 2018/19 have reduced the number of top-flight clubs left in the competition to seven (that will become six if Brighton fall to West Brom this evening).

At the time of writing, we can still have anything from four to nine FPL fixtures in Gameweek 31.

Chelsea v Manchester United is the only all-Premier League tie in the fifth round, with Crystal Palace, Wolves, Watford, Manchester City and Brighton (if they progress at the Hawthorns tonight) all facing sides from the Football League.

Six blanks is still a very real possibility in Gameweek 31, then, but any Fantasy manager who thinks they have their chip strategy already sorted for the coming months ahead may be perhaps advised to hang fire until the FA Cup quarter-final draw has been made.

Those who were planning on free-hitting in Gameweek 31, for example, may suddenly find that they are able to put out a competitive starting XI without the use of this chip, particularly if the likes of Wolves, Chelsea and/or Crystal Palace – whose assets are well-owned in FPL – are eliminated (we are taken it as almost a given that Manchester City will see off Newport County).

Similarly, those who were planning on building a Gameweek 31 team from this point onwards, possibly with a view to free-hitting or wildcarding in Gameweek 32, may find themselves stuck with some undesirable assets or overlooking several premium options in the weeks leading up to the blank if the following fixtures (the ones confirmed for Gameweek 31 so far) remain the only ones standing:

Bournemouth v Newcastle
Burnley v Leicester
Fulham v Liverpool
West Ham v Huddersfield

The number of blanks in Gameweek 31 will then of course directly affect the magnitude of Double Gameweek 32, Blank Gameweek 33 and Double Gameweek 35.

Chip strategy is something we have already discussed in the last few weeks but we will return to the subject in earnest once the FA Cup fifth round has been staged, as so much could still happen in the last 16 of that competition.

Flexibility seems to be the key for now, at least.

785 Comments Post a Comment
  1. TheSteel
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Agueroooooo!

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Aggeeeeeeeurroo

    2. Richd
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      AGUEROOOO
      AGUEROOOO
      AGUEROOOO

      (X3)

      1. FPL Pillars
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Kun Kun Kun train

    3. JELLYFISH
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Another hatty would be immense

  2. Je suis le chat
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    A nice au revoir to Kun if he brings up the tonne tonight, switch to Aub for a few weeks.

  3. fr3d
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Who cares if Richarlison is benched. He will come on and get 1 point instead of 2

    1. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      My thoughts exactly

    2. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      but .... but ....

    3. Homer21
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Of the two players I have, I'm glad it was Rich benched rather than Kun:)

  4. SweeSwee
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    To be fair, no one could have foreseen Aguero starting 2 matches in one week.

    1. Supersonic Marv'
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      I took a hit to bring him in. I think it's the first time a hit has ever paid off for me.

      1. Milk, 1 Šuker
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Well done. He was in my thoughts but unless you haven’t played your wildcard or have a free hit chip available (played both of mine), I couldn’t face having to clear out Everton, Man C, (Brighton and Chelsea) players when it comes to GW27 which I suspect is a situation facing a fair number of players now.

    2. Yank Revolution
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      They couldnt? He didnt play that much and was getting hooked early this season, so he's ready.

      1. Homer21
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        And showing some form

  5. Vlad Tepes
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    I am cheering for Aguero to miss atleast one penalty and a TC. But I guess he will haul.

    1. Vlad Tepes
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      RC

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Back behind the sofa

  6. Revival
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Danilo, Sterling, KDB, Mahrez and Jesus. That is some bloody bench!!

  7. Farke in hell
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Lol, Even Sky Sports have given up trying to guess the formation.

    https://imgur.com/a/nM77zmW

    1. Hazz
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      If only

  8. Wild Rover
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Klopp has already made a complaint to Prem re Everton team selection 😀

    1. Old Man
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      I might join him.

    2. Peter Ouch
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Klopp knows

  9. FPL DONKEY
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Rich against tired legs

    1. IAWC ( It's a Wonderfu…
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Loll

    2. FPL Pillars
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Rich is benched

      1. Hazz
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Hence his fresh legs being subbed on against tired legs

        1. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Brace imminent!!!

        2. FPL Pillars
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          I think desperation has kicked in.

      2. Kiwivillan
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Against tired legs usually implies coming off the bench late sub

      3. Fingerspitzengefühl
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        That's what he meant, coming on as sub vs tired legs

      4. BigCoupes
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        hence the against tired legs comment

    3. Sim Simma
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      That's a bit Rich don't you think

    4. Aldershot Gas
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Bless - a 21 year old professional sportsman, who last played 4 days ago....must be knackered..... he should try working a 60+ hour week, like the rest of us,,,,,

      1. Salah’s Sonnet
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        60+ hours?! Jesus, you work on the Amistad?

  10. The Train Driver
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Whatever the lineup there will always be some a-hole saying "yeah, obvious that is the lineup bla bla bla, because bla bla bla" oh please shut up!

    1. George Sillett
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Did you used to drives buses ?

      1. Sim Simma
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 13 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Train drivers don't get grief from the great unwashed

      2. The Train Driver
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        No, I'm not the bus driver for the 58th time....

  11. Sim Simma
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 1 month ago

    Team News: EVE vs MCI
    Referee: Craig Pawson

    EVE: Pickford, Zouma, Digne, Kenny, Keane, Bernard, Davies, André Gomes, Walcott, Gueye, Calvert-Lewin
    Subs: Stekelenburg, Coleman, Sigurdsson, Schneiderlin, McCarthy, Tosun, Richarlison

    MCI: Ederson, Otamendi, Walker, Laporte, David Silva, Fernandinho, Gündogan, Stones, Bernardo Silva, Agüero, Sané
    Subs: Muric, Danilo, Zinchenko, De Bruyne, Jesus, Mahrez, Sterling

    1. brianutd-why always we? 20
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Scenes no Richarlison or Sterling or Siggy

  12. Party time
      5 years, 1 month ago

      Who is the real winner Pep Guardiola or Marco Silva?

      1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Certainly not Jurgen

      2. Business Cat
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        If Everton get hit for six and Silva is seen as putting out a weakened team, surely his job comes under extreme scrutiny?

        1. Party time
            5 years, 1 month ago

            I do not think he has a job anymore. Tonight Kun and Sane will spank the tactics out of his brain

          • The Ejiptian King
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            I think possibly gone if they lose to Watford next.

      3. Peter Ouch
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Traffic at the exit of M62, please be cautious, lot of Fpl managers are leaving Richa.

        Aka Richaexit

      4. jimmyabs1987
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Oh pep you have broken my heart! Raz to come on for Sané hammy

      5. shirtless
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Two Aguero(c) DGW starts is the stuff of dreams! Season defining , nearest rival went for Salah.

      6. fr3d
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Imagine being Riyad Mahrez

        1. Dr Dream
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Imagine being Jesus...

          1. The Ejiptian King
            • 5 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            Mahrez is worse, not even considered first choice deputy for either Sane or Sterling now it seems.

          2. Supersonic Marv'
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            I've been told not to do that.

            1. VanDijksToWatchOutFor
              • 6 Years
              5 years, 1 month ago

              Funny

        2. Rainer
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          250k a week and training with some of the best players in the world, I can imagine.

          1. fr3d
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            😛

          2. Sim Simma
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            spends his time on FIFA anyway

        3. Yank Revolution
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Id be sleeping well on top of millions of dollars each night...

        4. FPL Pillars
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          150k a week, I wouldn’t mind.

      7. Aldershot Gas
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Coleman, Siggy and Rich on the bench ?!?!? - Everton obviously wanting to lose to scupper Liverpool.… hope they get smashed 8-0 (with Augero missing a first min pen and getting sent off)…...

        1. Amey
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          😀

      8. Brosstan
        • 9 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        There should be a rule about featuring players who are bought from other teams in the PL a certain amount of games. Its ridiculous what City are doing with Mahrez.

        1. Supersonic Marv'
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Spare a thought for Danny Drinkwater.

          1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            No

            1. Supersonic Marv'
              • 7 Years
              5 years, 1 month ago

              Oh go on.

              1. THE SHEEP HUNTERS
                • 6 Years
                5 years, 1 month ago

                No

        2. Alan The Llama
          • 14 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          He's been terrible this year

          1. Brosstan
            • 9 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            He would play every game for every other team bar Liverpool.

      9. Je suis le chat
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        At least Jurgen has the car sales gig to fall back on. End it tonight Kun!

      10. Planet Jo
        • 11 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Who do you think is most likely to make an appearance from the bench?

        A. KDB
        B. Sterling
        C. Richarlison

        (Need to know who to captain in the Sky game)

        1. Musicholic
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          KDB and Rich

        2. Baps hunter
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          C

        3. Yank Revolution
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          C

        4. SweeSwee
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          C

        5. Paul Psychic Octopus
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          I would expect Rich; followed by KDB unless the game is already safe.

          Always expected Sane in for Sterling with Chelsea at the weekend.

          Surprised Jesus and Mahrez not given run outs.

        6. Aldershot Gas
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          C - and then does sweet FA, apart from getting booked = 0 points.....will be the most transferred out player this week....

      11. Big boy Bowen
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Captain Sterling not looking good

      12. SADIO SANÉ
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        didn't realise Siggy too!? damn lucky Aguero owners 😉

      13. Srv210
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Damn! Kun has always been in my side for DGW ,this is the first time I guess I'm without him and he is wreaking havoc on my rank (which was already on a free fall) but now I do not think I can even crawl up to a decent rank...bald fraud pep!!

        1. Yank Revolution
          • 12 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Is he the fraud, or is it you?!

          1. Srv210
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            Yeah man ..I should have kept my faith in kun ..but just got blown away by rotation theories ..hoping sane recovers some points

            1. Yank Revolution
              • 12 Years
              5 years, 1 month ago

              GL

      14. Amey
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 1 month ago

        Come on Aguerooooooooo
        Keep your away form going 😀

        1. Party time
            5 years, 1 month ago

            Pep must have him in his fantasy team

            1. Amey
              • 5 Years
              5 years, 1 month ago

              😀

        2. Sim Simma
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Digne to troll sellers tonight ?

          1. Old Man
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 12 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            Spare a thought for the guy in 2nd place (now 8th) who captained Digne.

          2. TheSteel
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 11 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            I played him over AWB for fun

        3. Revival
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 11 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          As a Sane owner and Aguero captainer in the Top 10k this is the best team news!

          1. JELLYFISH
            • 11 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            Agreed,but as a Rich owner I am going to miss his 2 points 🙁

          2. Baps hunter
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            With help of hindsight I would have TC:d Kun, but glad I st least ditched Trollmino for him 😉

        4. SweeSwee
          • 9 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          So if I don’t have Aguero TC, every point he scores pushes me down the rankings - that right?

          1. Epic Fail
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 13 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            Depends where you are ranked.

          2. Pierce34
            • 8 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            No.

        5. Sim Simma
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Shame Sane was named in the lineup. Lots of sub-bench points derailed

          1. Rainer
            • 7 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            Still 40 minutes to get injured.

        6. Bubz
          • 10 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          Sterling never comes on does he

          1. jimmyabs1987
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            It’s devastating news!

          2. g40steve
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 1 month ago

            No, plays or stays on the bench.

        7. 'Broadsword Calling Da…
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 7 Years
          5 years, 1 month ago

          I need an SAS squadron guarding & making sure my (C) Sane does not stub his toe or twist an ankle in warp up, otherwise it's Salah (VC) for me, whilst my rivals reap Kun (VC's)..it was an oversight on my part.