Spot the Differential

Three FPL differentials for Gameweek 29 and the blanks ahead

This regular series puts the spotlight on three players whose ownership in Fantasy Premier League is below 5% – or in one case this week, just slightly above it.

We’ve looked at a defender, a midfielder and a forward with appealing matches this weekend as well as guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Michail Antonio (£6.8m)

FPL ownership: 1.6%

There was a mad rush on Felipe Anderson (£7.2m) ahead of West Ham’s match against Fulham in Gameweek 27, with Fantasy managers also perhaps having one eye on the weeks ahead when snapping the Brazilian up – the Hammers have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33 as well as some appealing matches beforehand.

While Anderson has struggled for form (one assist in nine matches), his team-mate Michail Antonio (£6.8m) has quietly been more impressive.

Antonio has two goals, one assist and two bonus points in the last four Gameweeks.

The former Nottingham Forest midfielder has started 11 of the last 12 Premier League matches and while the return to fitness of Manuel Lanzini (£6.4m) and Samir Nasri (£5.3m) is perhaps cause for concern, both those players shared game-time in the “number ten” role – rather than wide on the right, where Antonio generally plays – on Wednesday evening in Manchester.

When filtered by last six home matches, only three midfielders – all of them premium ones – have recorded more shots in the box than Antonio.

Antonio’s ability in the air could also be an advantage when Newcastle visit the London Stadium on Saturday: Antonio has recorded more headed goal attempts than any other FPL midfielder when again filtered by last six home matches.

The Magpies, meanwhile, have conceded more headed chances than all Premier League teams bar Burnley this season.

Jamie Vardy (£8.8m)

FPL ownership: 5.3%

We’ve slightly bent the rules on this one.

Jamie Vardy‘s FPL ownership was hovering just below the 5% mark at the planning stage of this article but a modest number of inbound transfers has tipped him over the edge of our usual cut-off point for differentials.

The impact of Claude Puel’s exit is still yet to be fully determined but there was seemingly no love lost between the now-departed Frenchman and Vardy, with the Leicester City striker having previously said Puel’s style didn’t suit him.

Similarly, we are yet to see how the appointment of Brendan Rodgers as Leicester manager affects Vardy’s output.

The “new manager bounce” could be the catalyst for Vardy’s renaissance as a Fantasy asset, however, with the ex-England striker having previously enjoyed a purple patch (five goals in as many matches) when Craig Shakespeare replaced another alleged “adversary” in Claudio Ranieri in February 2017.

Vardy, indeed, was on the scoresheet against Brighton on Tuesday night in Mike Stowell’s sole game in charge.

Certainly, Leicester have some appealing fixtures ahead, starting with a trip to a Watford side that rank in the bottom five for attempts on goal, shots in the box and big chances conceded over the last six Gameweeks.

The Foxes also avoid any of the “big six” from now until Gameweek 36 and have guaranteed fixtures in Blank Gameweeks 31 and 33.

Vardy’s underlying stats aren’t great over the last six Gameweeks but the calibre of the Foxes’ opposition (Liverpool, Manchester United, Spurs) and the Leicester striker’s benching at Wembley have to be taken into account.

Only two FPL forwards have been presented with more “big chances” than Vardy in 2018/19.

James Tarkowski (£4.7m)

FPL ownership: 4.4%

Burnley’s eight-match unbeaten run came to an end on Tuesday night but there is little argument that the Clarets have massively improved following their well-documented struggles earlier this season.

Over the last nine Gameweeks, only four clubs have shipped fewer goals than Sean Dyche’s side.

Just five sides have allowed fewer big chances in that time.

Burnley now have three home matches in the next four Gameweeks – one of which is in Blank Gameweek 31.

Tarkowski recorded three attempts on goal on Tyneside in midweek: Shane Duffy (£4.7m) is the only FPL defender who has registered more shots in the box over the last six Gameweeks.

Only three FPL assets in any position (let alone defence) have registered more efforts than Tarkowski from inside the opposition six-yard box this season.

2,163 Comments Post a Comment
  1. moment
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Help me choose:
    a) Auba + Hojberg > Barnes + Hazard
    b) Auba + Son > Vardy + Hazard

    Basically can't work out whether to keep Son for the derby or not

    1. bhh
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Keep son bin Hojberg. Southamptons games are poor through to 34 and blank in 31

      1. Latch86
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 12 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        Agree

  2. Delta Varane'iant
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Etheridge
    VVD, Periera, Doherty
    Salah, Haz (C), Pogba,
    Higuain, Jiminez

    Jota
    Barnes
    Arnie

    Bench. AWB, Bendarek

    Stuck on which 2 to pick. Head says Barnes has to play with Jota being poor last 3 games and Arnie back from lay off / illness. Heart says Barnes hasn't been turning his form into points so to stick with the other two.
    Thoughts?

  3. pressdpm
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Son/Aguero > Sterling/Higuain

    Yay or nay?

    1. Barca_Rover
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      yay .. me doing same

    2. bhh
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      I'd look at Mane over Sterling (although I'm guessing you either already have him or have 3 Pools already)

    3. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Yes, I'm doing the same but probably going for Vardy instead of Higuain

  4. Sc007
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Got 2ft this good moves?
    Auba to Vardy
    Sane to either hazard/ sterling or mane

    Current team

    Foster
    Doherty Kolasinac Robertson
    Pogba son Salah Sané
    Auba Jimenez Rashford

    Hamer Hayden Bednarek wan bissaka

  5. THFC4LIFE
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Save ft here?

    Fabianksi
    Robbo Doherty AWB
    Salah Sterling(c) Pogba Son F.Anderson
    Vardy Jimenez

    Hamer Rondon Kolasinac Digne

    Cheers all

    1. Tauruspt
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Lots of simalrities to my team

      Looks g2g

    2. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Yeh I would

  6. Whats the Mata?
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    kepa in for patricio?

    no 2nd playin keeper

    1. The 5% Team
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      sure he starts?

    2. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      risky

    3. Mysterion
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Could still end up with no 2nd playing kepa

    4. bhh
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      I'd go for Dubravka

    5. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Heaton

  7. bhh
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    I'd keep son and get rid of Hojberg, Southampton's fixtures are poor through to 34 and blank in 31

  8. Whazza
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 11 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Why are everyone removing Son and Auba?
    North London derby should be high-scoring

    1. Robson-Canoe
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Because there's better options than them, not only for this GW but for the coming weeks as well. MCI and CHE assets look to good to ignore.

      1. Robson-Canoe
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        too*

    2. bhh
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Long term frustration and ARS (H) and TOT(A) don't look like good fixtures on the team page

    3. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Agreed, spurs at home Vs a poor arsenal defence who are likely to attack could go well for Son. Both teams struggle to keep teams out, so probably 0-0 😉

    4. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Could be high scoring, but it could also be low scoring with a lot riding on the game and both teams playing their 3rd game in 7 days in what is an early kick-off.

    5. Bobby Digital
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      I'm keeping.. will do a double next week or the week after. Higuain and Hazard look like good replacements.

  9. Tauruspt
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    -4

    Pereira and Anderson out
    For
    Robertson and pedro

    Is it worth the hit?

    1. bhh
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      No. You can do it in two stages. I'd do Pedro this week and wait on Robbo

    2. The 5% Team
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      I like Pedro, but a bit scared by Sarri comments about rotation.

      He's always a rotation risk with Willian of course, he played 90 min last match so you would think Willian starts this GW. Wouldn't feel good getting a player who is benched.

  10. Don Kloppeone
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Seriously considering
    Kun, Son > Higuaín, Sterling (-4)

    To give me:
    1.0itb
    Fab
    Robbo, TAA, Doherty, Luiz
    Salah, Sterling (C), Pogba, Jota
    Higuaín, Jimi
    (Hamer) (Barnes, Pereira, JWP)

    FH32, WC34

    I need rank gains. I’m languishing around 200k OR so a risk may be worth it. Mad?

    Cheers

    1. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      I'm doing something similar. Aguero's played a lot of minutes recently and i'm not prepared to captain him with Pep's comments and Jesus seen in training. Jesus last played less than 2 weeks ago so won't be lacking match fitness

  11. Lh909
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    I honestly don't think City are going to go to Bournemouth and turn them over as much as people think, have Aguero and I'm going Son to Haz.

    1. Tauruspt
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      With Jesus fit there is talk Aguero may be rested

      1. Lh909
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        I'm not bothered about Aguero getting rested, but I won't be getting sterling

      2. bhh
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        Always talk Aguero will be rested and often never happens. I reckon they'll play him for 60 then bring on Jesus

    2. potatoace
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      I fear that if Bou come out to attack at all they are going to get smashed, and thats exactly what they do at home.

      1. Lh909
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        I don't think howe will go that route, catch them on the counter maybe with the space city leave behind them at the times, but at home Bournemouth are a different beast

    3. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Same problem at Fulham though and new manager factor. Also, Sarri said he's going to make 4-5 changes to the starting XI

      1. Lh909
        • 6 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        New manager isn't going to revitalise Fulham, and Hazard won't get dropped

        1. ScratchingTheMud
          • 13 Years
          5 years, 28 days ago

          Agree but there could well be an improvement in performance on Sunday, at least in effort and desire with the focus on the manager change and the fact it's a derby. Fulham fans hate Chelsea and they generally put a performance in against them. Are Chelsea even that good? The jury is out. And Sarri will make changes for the game

          1. Lh909
            • 6 Years
            5 years, 28 days ago

            Chelsea are a quality side on their day, took city to penalties in the cup with a strong performance and Chelsea fans hate Fulham just as much. Think Chelsea now have a change in focus and desire also and with that im going with a Chelsea win. Haz (c).

            1. ScratchingTheMud
              • 13 Years
              5 years, 28 days ago

              "On their day" - that's the problem, they're inconsistent and Hazard, at least from an fpl perspective, is inconsistent.

              Could work out well but I'm not so sure. Good luck for the weekend and the remainder of the season

              1. Lh909
                • 6 Years
                5 years, 28 days ago

                Cheers mucker, you too

  12. Winners900
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Help with the bench please, which two would you start? Appreciated!

    A) AWB (Burnley A)
    B) Digne (Liverpool H)
    C) Westwood (Crystal Palace H)
    D) Fraser (City H)

    1. bhh
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Westwood and Fraser (more likely to get attacking returns from Fraser than you are a clean sheet from AWB)

      1. Winners900
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        its tough, maybe a case to start AWB to hold the variance down since most managers in my league will start him...

  13. Winston.
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Maddison (wat) or Almiron (whu) for this GW? Might get later both. Thanks.

    1. bhh
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      For this week, Maddison. I'd wait until Almiron actually proves himself to be capable of goals and assists before buying him. Also think Watford will have been knocked by the Liverpool game and Leicester often do well first match with a new manager

      1. Winston.
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 10 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        Thanks. What about H. Barnes?

        1. Eytexi
          • 5 Years
          5 years, 28 days ago

          Barnes the best of the three imo.

  14. dbuk87
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Son captain anyone? I have a feeling he will do something.

    1. Garlana
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Would be a huge rank boost if he does well as a lot of ppl are getting rid...too many more obvious options this week though for most to even consider that.

      1. dbuk87
        • 5 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        I have pogba and Aguero...
        Aguero prob won't start tomorrow. And pogba is as much as a risk as son. I would love to have sterling this week. As he is the only only 1 stand out captain this week in my opinion

    2. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      This is the predicament. I have both Aguero and Son, two players I will be selling before gw31. Aguero captain is too risky and Son could work out, but clearly he's not as strong an option as an in form Sterling against an injury ravaged Bournemouth.

      I think I'll be doing a -4 for Vardy and Sterling

  15. A guy
    • 9 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Should I bench boost with Guaita, PVA (bur), Bennett (CAR), Deulofeu (LEI), Camarasa (wol).

    One of those players can also be sold, I burn a transfer if I don’t.

    1. bhh
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      NOOOOOOOO. Hold bench boost for double game weeks in a few weeks time

    2. Regin
      • 6 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      why not? I am also bench boosting after playing my WC in gw 28.
      i got fab (NEW), taylor & mcneil of burnley (crystal palace) and yedlin

      1. Fantasyamateur
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        Why not? Because you can get 8 games of bench boost instead of only 4. Thats why.

        1. Regin
          • 6 Years
          5 years, 28 days ago

          assuming u have 15 players with dgw.

  16. klavan
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Captian:
    A) Higuain
    B) Salah
    C) Pogba

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      B

    2. bhh
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      A

      1. Winners900
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        I got the exact same candidates and currently I'm on C.

        C-A-B as a ranking right now for me.

  17. Regin
    • 6 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    is aguero likely to be rested as some reports suggest? ManC dont have a midweek game.

    1. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      He will surely. May get a cameo max.

    2. hustler7
      • 11 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      No one knows. I think he starts and comes off with half hour to go depending on the score.

    3. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      There's a good chance he will, yes. Played Schalke 10 days ago in Germany, 120 mins on Sunday, 85 mins on Wednesday. In the red zone now. Was "exhausted" in the second half v West Ham.

  18. UnitednationsXI
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Who would you prefer to play in gw30, gw31, gw33:

    A: Digne (new, CHE, ARS)
    B: Schindler (BOU, cry, LEI)

    - Schindler with the better fixtures, whilst digne with the attacking threat
    - Reason i am asking is coz i am deciding between doing Digne >> TAA this gw or waiting till next gw to Schindler >> TAA.

  19. aleksios
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Captain Pogba or Kun?

    1. melvinmbabazi
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 10 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      pogba

    2. frogman
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Same question here; KUN (BOU), POGBA (sou) or SALAH (EVE)… who would you have as C? And VC?

    3. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Pogba

  20. Pep's Money Laundry
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Start one

    A. Chilwell (wat)
    B. Digne (LIV)
    C. Schindler (bri)

    All 3 will probably get max 2 points anyway

    1. Now I'm Panicking
      • 9 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      A

    2. BAMBAA
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      A

  21. El-Kloppico
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    When Sarri mentioned rotation, is he including Hazard in that?
    Took a hit to get him in.

    1. SADIO SANÉ
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      hoping he's talking about Kante/Rudiger or something but no idea

    2. Fantasyamateur
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Apparently a small thigh tightness before the game on Wednesday that decided the early transfer. After the game he said that is was all ok.

      Im considering bringing him in to captain him myself.

    3. ScratchingTheMud
      • 13 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      I think it includes everyone who played 120 mins on Sunday and started against Spurs. Hazard is one of those, but poss' less likely he'll be rested after playing an hour midweek. Important EL game coming up on Thursday followed by Wolves next weekend

  22. Manani
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    save FT?

    Fab
    Robertson Pereria Dohetry
    FAnderson Mane Salah Pogba Son
    Kimenez Barnes

    4.5mITB. but not sure what transfer to make so planning to save

  23. bangers and M*A*S*H
    • 12 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Who to play? Pick one.

    A) Ricardo (wat A)
    B) Dendoncker (car H)
    C) Fraser (city H)

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      C

  24. melvinmbabazi
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 10 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Best patricio replacment?

    A) Fab
    B) Heaton
    C) Boruc
    d) Dubravka

    1. bangers and M*A*S*H
      • 12 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Heaton or Dubravka

    2. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      B

    3. CliveTilds
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      A

  25. Yellin' in my Ear
    • 8 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Hi all. Can you help with the below benching dilemma, three to bench
    A) Brooks (MCI)
    B) AWB (bur)
    C) Pereira (wat)
    D) Moutinho (CAR)
    E) Bennett (CAR)
    Currently on ABC. Many thanks.

    1. BAMBAA
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Abc

    2. Eytexi
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Easily abc

    3. Yellin' in my Ear
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Thanks both

  26. BAMBAA
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Bench one please:

    Son, Jota, Mane, Rashford, Arnautovic

    Currently Son but rrreally not feeling it.

    1. FlytzoBazooka
      • 5 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Son

    2. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
      • 7 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Jota. No questions. I personally think Cardiff will embarass Wolves.

      1. Winners900
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 7 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        lol Jota ofc

  27. FlytzoBazooka
    • 5 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Who should I captain?
    A) Pogba
    B) Sterling
    C) Jimenez
    D) Salah

    1. Pep's Money Laundry
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      B

  28. Plagued by indecision
    • 13 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Seems getting rid of Aguero all the rage. Now i’m tempted. Anyone want to convince me to get Higuain?

    1. El-Kloppico
      • 8 Years
      5 years, 28 days ago

      Higuain will score 5

      1. El-Kloppico
        • 8 Years
        5 years, 28 days ago

        Hope its enough to convince you 😉

  29. Witty Pun: Not good at this…
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    I'm considering benching Aguero...

  30. Legohair
    • 7 Years
    5 years, 28 days ago

    Few opinnions please?

    Patricio
    Robbo-Doherty-TAA-Pereira
    Salah-Son-Pogba-Andersson
    Aguero-Rondon

    Guaita,Wilson,WB,Romeu

    1 FT 1.9 itb
    A. WB to Rice
    B. Son&WB to Hazard&Zabaleta -4
    C. Something else