This week, Manchester City and Liverpool are very short priced favourites to win, score plenty and keep clean sheets, with Liverpool’s odds slightly shorter.
The only other sides that are odds on to win are Tottenham (70% chance) and Southampton (51%). The bookmakers price teams very evenly in the fixtures at Crystal Palace and Manchester United, with not much more between them at Leicester and Watford. These match result odds can focus our minds when looking for players.
Defensive returns
After the big two, Tottenham lead the clean sheet odds with a 44% chance of a clean sheet, followed by Brighton (40%), then Southampton and Watford (36%).
Those that kept Brighton players after their disaster have a decent chance of further reward. Shane Duffy (£4.8m) is a 21% any time goal scorer bet, the highest probability of all defenders.
Southampton’s clean sheet odds aren’t amazing at 36% but with their 51% win probability and their remaining fixtures, they catch my eye. There are plenty of cheap options in the Southampton defence, wait for an update on Jan Valery (£4.1m) though.
The bookmakers predict goals between Leicester and Arsenal. With clean sheet odds of 25% and 23%, they are the fifth and sixth least likely teams to keep it clean this weekend. Bournemouth have the fourth longest clean sheet odds, with a 22% chance. We’ll return to that when looking at Southampton’s attacking options.
Most likely goal scoring forwards and midfielders
There are 14 players that the bookmaker prices as even money or shorter to score at any time. If you are struggling for budget for Liverpool’s regular starters and want to punt on rotation or substitute appearances, Daniel Sturridge (£5.6m), Divock Origi (£5.0m) and Xherdan Shaqiri (£6.8m) all have a 55% chance of scoring. From Tottenham, Son Heung-min (£8.8m) (59%), Fernando Llorente (£5.1m) and Lucas Moura (£6.8m) are 51% chances. The forecast of goals at Leicester makes Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) a 51% chance and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.9m) an even money (50%) shot. Alexander Lacazette (£9.4m) is a 42% chance.
Southampton offer value in attacking positions, given Bournemouth’s clean sheet odds. Danny Ings (£5.4m) is a 48% goal scoring chance, whilst record breaker Shane Long (£4.6m) is at 40%, although the team news section currently has him not starting. In midfield, surprisingly to me, James Ward Prowse (£5.1m) (35%) has a higher chance than Nathan Redmond (£5.4m) (30%). You can do worse than playing your bench fodder Pierre-Emile Hojbjerg (£4.4m) (25%), the same chance as David Brooks (£5.1m) apparently.
Fulham host Cardiff and this fixture, along with their improved form sees Aleksandar Mitrovic (£6.3m) and Ryan Babel (£5.5m) priced as 48% goalscoring chances. Along with Danny Ings and Leroy Sane (£9.3m), these four players have the next highest goalscoring probabilities after the 14 players at even money or shorter. Fulham follow up with games at Wolves, who have struggled for clean sheets and at home to Newcastle. Maybe their better players are starting to play for a move.
Questions for you
Could you recruit Southampton players in any position or Fulham’s attacking options as cheap differentials for the last three weeks?
Can they replace mid-priced players, giving funds for an upgrade elsewhere?
Would you take a hit or could the upgrade wait until week 37?
4 years, 11 months agoI will add this: Short odds on reserve players make it obvious that bookmakers cover themselves for unexpected team news. They price players as if they are starting, that is easier for them than changing the odds quickly if there is unexpected team news.