Differentials

Differentials among the top 10k FPL managers

There are only two Gameweeks remaining of the 2018/19 season, with very little time left for Fantasy Premier League managers to improve their overall rank or claw back a mini-league deficit.

This is the time of the season when “differentials” really come to the fore, with a carefully chosen, low-owned Fantasy asset carrying the potential to boost an FPL manager’s OR.

While looking at overall ownership within the game is one way of filtering out differentials, the fact that there are now millions of inactive FPL teams skews the figures somewhat.

Ownership within the top 10k is therefore a more reliable barometer and also provides a clue for those in and around the top 10,000 as to who their rivals are currently backing – or overlooking – in the season run-in.

We have used data mined from Ragabolly‘s site, livefpl.net, for this analysis.

High-Owned Players

The players with an ownership of 10% or more in the top 10,000 are as follows:

Obviously there is something of a hangover from Gameweeks 34 and 35 within those figures, with the majority of the players in the list having had at least one Double Gameweek in the past fortnight.

Fixture Difficulty

Sorting clubs by fixture difficulty on our Season Ticker for Gameweeks 37 and 38 gives the following:

Differentials

Manchester United’s double-header against Huddersfield Town and Cardiff City is perhaps the most-appealing pair of fixtures in Gameweeks 37 and 38 but there would be understandable reservations about their players on current form.

Their Gameweek 36 match against Chelsea on Sunday can act as an audition of sorts but the nature of the fixtures beyond that may be enough to convince some FPL bosses to take one last punt on a United player.

Paul Pogba (£8.5m) and Marcus Rashford (£7.3m) are already above the 10% threshold and will likely see their ownerships rise further despite their indifferent form but Romelu Lukaku (£10.6m) is in genuine differential territory, currently only owned by 0.46% of managers in the top 10k.

Security of starts is an issue with the Belgian and he was indeed benched in midweek, while he is without a goal since Gameweek 29 – although he has had seven big chances in his last six appearances.

Luke Shaw (£5.0m), owned by just 0.53% of the top 10k, is perhaps a more appealing option given that United face the lowest-scoring teams in the Premier League in Gameweeks 37 and 38.

Cardiff pretty much have to win against Crystal Palace in Gameweek 37 to stand any chance of avoiding the drop, which will force the Bluebirds out on the front foot against Roy Hodgson’s side.

The likes of Wilfried Zaha (£6.9m) and Christian Benteke (£6.3m) – owned by 3.79% and 0.08% of the top 10k respectively – could have a field day against Cardiff then, particularly as Palace have been much better away from home this season.

Bournemouth are the visitors to Selhurst Park on the final day of the season and have conceded more away goals than all bar relegated Huddersfield and Fulham in 2018/19.

Spurs, Chelsea and Arsenal enjoy two “blue” fixtures in Gameweeks 37 and 38 but much uncertainty surrounds their respective managers’ team selections in the run-in, with those three clubs in Champions League or Europa League semi-final action around their remaining Premier League games.

Eden Hazard (£10.9m) is still an eye-catching omission from our above list, however, with the Belgian sitting in just 8.19% of top 10k squads.

The likes of Cesar Azpilicueta (£6.4m), David Luiz (£5.8m) and Gonzalo Higuain (£9.0m) also all have ownerships of less than 5% within this group of elite managers.

Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (£10.9m) would be a high-risk, high-reward punt.

The Gabonese striker is the second-highest-scoring FPL forward and sits in just 2.93% of top 10k squads but second-guessing Unai Emery’s team selections is nigh-on impossible and Aubameyang – for one reason or another – has only started in four of Arsenal’s last ten Premier League games.

Out of Europe, Manchester City’s focus is very much on the league.

Bernardo Silva (£7.7m) and David Silva (£8.5m) are cut-price routes into a City attack that has not failed to score in the last 19 Gameweeks.

Owned by 7.61% and 0.39% of the top 10k respectively, the two Silvas have posted modest returns this season but sit in the top 12 midfielders for expected goal involvement (xGI) in 2018/19.

Casting our net further, the in-form Ryan Babel (£5.5m) and Shane Long (£4.6m) are two budget options who have been racking up the returns of late and who both enjoy two “blue” fixtures in Gameweeks 37 and 38.

No midfielder under £8.5m has a better points-per-match average than Babel this season, while Long has scored four goals in his last five games.

The pair were owned by 1.86% and 3.16% of the top 10k respectively at the point of the Gameweek 36 deadline.

West Ham United have started delivering some much-improved performances recently and were excellent at Spurs on Saturday.

Not one of the Hammers’ players was owned by more than 4% of the top 10k as of this weekend, with Marko Arnautovic (£6.7m), Felipe Anderson (£6.9m) and Michail Antonio (£6.7m) all owned by less than 0.6% of these managers.

Anderson and Antonio sit in the top ten midfielders for shots in the box and efforts on target in the last four Gameweeks and face a now-safe Southampton and FA Cup finalists Watford in their last two games.

Finally, a word on Everton. While the Toffees still have a trip to Spurs to come, Marco Silva’s troops are one of the Premier League’s form teams at present and were much the better side against Palace yesterday.

Like West Ham assets, all of Everton’s players are owned by less than 4% of FPL managers.

Lucas Digne (£5.3m) is part of an Everton backline that has kept seven clean sheets in their last nine games, while Richarlison (£6.4m) and Gylfi Sigurdsson (£7.4m) have scored more goals this season (13 each) than any midfielder under £10.0m in FPL.

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239 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Bam Bam Bigelow
    • 3 Years
    22 days, 20 hours ago

    Lacazette banquet upcoming

    1. Brosstan
      • 4 Years
      22 days, 19 hours ago

      Auba chasing the golden boot!

    2. Fantasy Gold
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 4 Years
      22 days, 19 hours ago

      Leicester 2-1 Vardy brace

      1. No Mo Salah
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 1 Year
        22 days, 19 hours ago

        pereira assist

  2. Eddie`
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 6 Years
    22 days, 19 hours ago

    I like this Arsenal lineup. Just missing Kos and Ramsey.

  3. Jonny HOW SON?
    • 4 Years
    22 days, 19 hours ago

    Can you somehow check out which teams are still in the cup, ties and things like this?

    1. Ginkapo FPL
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 7 Years
      22 days, 19 hours ago

      Watford City Spurs Chelsea Liverpol and Arsenal

      1. Jonny HOW SON?
        • 4 Years
        22 days, 19 hours ago

        In fpl, not in real life...

        1. SPorting
          • 7 Years
          22 days, 19 hours ago

          No idea.

          This team is still in it though:

          https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/leagues/cup/310848

          1. Jonny HOW SON?
            • 4 Years
            22 days, 19 hours ago

            yeah I went through my opponents and found a so called quaterfinal too

            https://fantasy.premierleague.com/a/leagues/cup/217445

  4. Bielsa's Binoculars
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 4 Years
    22 days, 19 hours ago

    Which betting site offers something like:

    A player scoring one goal and either assisting or scoring another?

  5. dunas_dog
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 3 Years
    22 days, 19 hours ago

    Is Monreal injured as not even in squad?

    1. I love Spurs
      • 6 Years
      22 days, 19 hours ago

      He got an ego injury for being shite and exposed by balls over the top the last few games.

    2. rainy
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • Has Moderation Rights
      • 3 Years
      22 days, 19 hours ago

      Calf injury per the Guardian

  6. Lamplighters
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 5 Years
    22 days, 19 hours ago

    Thinking of Sterling to Salah and VVD to PVA for last two game weeks, but worried Salah might be rested? Any chance?

    1. fr3ddy
      • 1 Year
      22 days, 19 hours ago

      That’s called chasing points. He won’t be rested though

      1. Hakim Ziyech
          22 days, 19 hours ago

          Please score against Burnley and change the grav

          1. fr3ddy
            • 1 Year
            22 days, 19 hours ago

            Rough times for my boy Leroy 🙁

            1. Hakim Ziyech
                22 days, 19 hours ago

                Nah! Just like at Old trafford, he will tear one in

        • Hakim Ziyech
            22 days, 19 hours ago

            I wouldn't do those moves

          • GianniBanani
            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
            22 days, 19 hours ago

            Thinking of exact opposite move with Salah. What's done is done, thank you for 57 points, but Sterling EO next gw can really hurt me

          • TheDragon
            • 1 Year
            22 days, 19 hours ago

            Those transfers make zero sense

        • Fantasy Gold
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 4 Years
          22 days, 19 hours ago

          I own Foster and Ryan who have Chelsea and Arsenal away in GW37.

          With that in mind, which of these moves do you prefer?

          A) Ryan > DDG
          B) Duffy > Shaw and bench Valery, and play Ryan vs Arsenal away

          1. fr3ddy
            • 1 Year
            22 days, 19 hours ago

            I’m planning something like this too. But then I had a look at Shaw’s returns this season and you’d be surprised to see how bad it is. Also I might just play Foster both games

            1. YEAH PITCH!
                22 days, 19 hours ago

                Foster may not play 38. It was mentioned Gomes could get a run out ready for the final.

                1. Fantasy Gold
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  22 days, 19 hours ago

                  Right ok so I’ll get DDG then.

                  Thanks

          2. The Head-Ake
            • 2 Years
            22 days, 19 hours ago

            (Ryan) Lloris
            Robbo Laporte Doherty Valery (Cathcart)
            Mane Eriksen Son Jota (Deulofeu)
            Aguero Jimenez (Vardy)

            Vardy + Cathcart + Eriksen ---> Rashford + Kelly + Sterling (-4). Y or N? What other moves would you look at?

          3. I love Spurs
            • 6 Years
            22 days, 19 hours ago

            Mustafi playing so expect him to let Vardy in on goal a few times.

          4. Scotty B
            • 7 Years
            22 days, 19 hours ago

            Eye test on Auba today. Have exact funds to bring him in for Wilson next week

            1. "Marvin"
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 2 Years
              22 days, 19 hours ago

              Give Arsenal a wide berth mate.

              1. Zenith UK
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 2 Years
                22 days, 19 hours ago

                Once they choke today and lose top four they'll romp the last two games, typical Arsenal

          5. "DC"
              22 days, 19 hours ago

              Who is more important to own, I own right now Salah Mane Aguero, I want Sterling but need to transfer Salah out for that, worth it ?

              1. Hakim Ziyech
                  22 days, 19 hours ago

                  Salah Agüero Sterling in that order

                  1. "DC"
                      22 days, 19 hours ago

                      I was thinking Mane can cover Salah for those 2 remaining games, ideally I would want to keep Salah, but for next two games Sterling is much better option imo

                      1. Hakim Ziyech
                          22 days, 19 hours ago

                          Mané can do the trick

                      2. TheDragon
                        • 1 Year
                        22 days, 19 hours ago

                        I’d have those 3 in reverse order for these last 2 weeks

                        1. Hakim Ziyech
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Salah is a bit of a differential that is why that order stands for me but I believe If one can get Mané in as a cover then the reverse is better( Sterling Agüero Mané)

                            1. TheDragon
                              • 1 Year
                              22 days, 19 hours ago

                              Ye exactly - if you have Mane then no Salah Ian completely fine now

                      3. I love Spurs
                        • 6 Years
                        22 days, 19 hours ago

                        I’d say so - Newcastle away and Wolves are tough games. Might only win by the odd goal whereas City will put a few past Leicester and Brighton.

                        1. "DC"
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Salah is a nice little differential in top10k, I would keep him ideally, but cant afford Sterling otherwise and he could hurt me next gw

                        2. GianniBanani
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          22 days, 19 hours ago

                          Same problem, either Salah>Sterling for free or Mane > Sterling for a hit. Waiting for ucl to "solve" this problem for me tbh

                          1. TheDragon
                            • 1 Year
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Salah -> Sterling for free surely out of those 2 options.

                            Salah isn’t going to have expected points which are 4 more than mane over last 2 games

                            1. GianniBanani
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              22 days, 19 hours ago

                              That's my thinking. Another one is that im left with triple wolves and cash from Salah>Sterling would be invested in an upgrade of Jota or Jimenez

                          2. "DC"
                              22 days, 19 hours ago

                              Do you have Eriksen maybe, I do and I could even transfer him out for Dilva or Bilva or even Sane if Im feeling lucky, but still I wouldnt have Sterling, what do you think?

                          3. Fantasydreamer
                            • 1 Year
                            22 days, 18 hours ago

                            Salah to sterling for me

                        3. Colonel Shoe 肝池
                          • 7 Years
                          22 days, 19 hours ago

                          eriksen to siggy for free?

                          1. Karan14
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 3 Years
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Pogba & B.Silva better options imo.

                        4. Zenith UK
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 2 Years
                          22 days, 19 hours ago

                          I really can't decide whether Eriksen & Wilson > Pogba & Rashford is worth it now with Wilson's form.. ugh... But the Huddersfield effect!

                          1. TheDragon
                            • 1 Year
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Eriksen can go - no other way to get a united than Wilson? Can’t just do Eriksen to Pogba?

                            1. Zenith UK
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 2 Years
                              22 days, 19 hours ago

                              I can do Eriksen to Pogba but it's Rashford I want more than Pogba.

                              I have front line of Aguero, Jimi & Wilson

                              1. TheDragon
                                • 1 Year
                                22 days, 19 hours ago

                                What makes Rashford appealing? How many goals does he have in his last 10 prem games?

                                Pogba has penalties that’s the benefit of him. I’d want to see a lot more from united to double up even if it is HUD and CAR

                                1. TheDragon
                                  • 1 Year
                                  22 days, 19 hours ago

                                  Caveat - I’m probably getting Rashford as I want 1 united and I have Gray who can go but no easy way to get Pogba

                          2. Offs!de
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 6 Years
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Risk vs reward. Huddersfield effect is the answer to all

                          3. Victor6359
                            • 1 Year
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Take Wilson out for 1 game then bring him back for the last game

                        5. Sotamendi84
                          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                          • 2 Years
                          22 days, 19 hours ago

                          Best option to catch up a 25 point lead for the last 2 gws?
                          Haz or sterling or pogba?

                          1. Offs!de
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 6 Years
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Haz

                          2. TheDragon
                            • 1 Year
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            If your rival doesn’t have Sterling then 10000000% him

                          3. the_arrows
                            • 2 Years
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Sterling assuming your rival doesn't have him

                        6. Hakim Ziyech
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Alright boys the party is about to begin!

                            1. 007 [RoboKlopp]
                              • 2 Years
                              22 days, 19 hours ago

                              Come on Vardy!!

                          • Karan14
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 3 Years
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Lloris
                            Robbo - Doherty - Valery
                            Sterling - Mane - Son - Eriksen - Jota
                            Aguero - Jimenez

                            (Ryan - Ings - Duffy - Bednarek)
                            2 FTs & 0.5m

                            A) Eriksen to Pogba
                            B) Eriksen to B.Silva
                            C) Eriksen & Duffy to Pogba/B.Silva & Shaw
                            D) Anything else?

                            Cheers! 🙂

                            1. The Mighty Hippo
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 2 Years
                              22 days, 11 hours ago

                              C with B.Silva (or even Siggy)

                          • Victor6359
                            • 1 Year
                            22 days, 19 hours ago

                            Scores on the doors today?

                            Arsenal 3 - 1 Lec
                            Man U 1 - 1 Chelsea
                            Burnley 1 - 3 Man City

                          • dunas_dog
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 3 Years
                            22 days, 18 hours ago

                            Eriksen to Hazard and Son to Babel -4

                            Yes or No- ? Gives this team

                            Lloris
                            TAA Doherty Robertson
                            Sterling Mané Hazard Jota Babel
                            Aguero Jimenez

                            Foster Long Yoshida Duffy

                          • SantaCruz87
                            • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                            • 7 Years
                            22 days, 17 hours ago

                            Eriksen and Son ---> Hazard and 1) Mili 2) Siggy 3) B.Silva

                            Which 1 out of the 3 would be best for the last 2 GW?

                          • Captain Choice - Ag imirt &…
                            • 9 Years
                            22 days, 16 hours ago

                            On fantasy football fix it shows the predicted bonus. In this low scoring games westwood always seems in the mix.
                            Not only that he gets the odd goal and assist.
                            He is one the radar for me next season if Burnley have nice fixtures, McNeil is another good Burnley option.

                          • Ahmed Adam
                            • 1 Year
                            22 days, 11 hours ago

                            Sterling and Rondon to Pogba and Lukaku for Minus -4?

                            Man united will Face the next two Game Huddersfield and Cardiff.

                            Any Thoughts

                            1. The Mighty Hippo
                              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                              • 2 Years
                              22 days, 11 hours ago

                              I like the Lukaku pick, but I can't help thinking Pogba will go missing till the end of the season.