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Can Redmond be trusted in Gameweek 38 finale against Huddersfield?

The arrival of Ralph Hasenhüttl at Southampton has brought the best out of FPL midfielder Nathan Redmond (£5.5m).

For that reason, many are considering him for inclusion in their squads for Gameweek 38.

With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, and Son Heung-min (£8.7m) suspended, he looks an easy option for Fantasy managers this weekend.

However, the midfielder has become renowned for not living up to his potential from an FPL perspective in recent seasons.

So this article will try to assess whether he is finally a trustworthy investment as the 2018/19 season comes to a close and we look forward to next year.

Fantasy Football Scout members can read on and look at the full analysis.

This season has been Redmond’s fourth consecutive in the top-flight and with one match remaining he has already surpassed his previous best points tally of 126 achieved in 2016/17.

In fact, it was that season, his debut campaign for Southampton that many were convinced that his potential would finally materialise.

However, after netting in Gameweek 1 he only managed a further six strikes and a solitary assist.

Under Mark Hughes, Redmond was very far away from our Fantasy radars

Last term things got even worse as he saw his minutes reduced and only finding the net once.

It must be said that, on the face of it, five goals and as many assists in 37 appearances for Redmond hasn’t exactly set the Fantasy world alight.

However, this does not tell the full story as it has really been a season of two parts for the Saints.

They were seriously struggling under Mark Hughes but Hasenhüttl’s arrival on the south coast has triggered a much-needed resurgence at St. Mary’s.

What impact has Hasenhüttl had on Redmond?

Hasenhüttl’s first match in charge was a 1-0 defeat to Cardiff in Gameweek 16, but since then Southampton powered themselves out of the relegation battle with consummate ease.

In order to see what impact the Austrian has had on the style of play, we will compare the data prior to his appointment (Gameweeks 1 to 15) and afterwards (Gameweek 16 onwards).

Nathan Redmond attacking statistics
GWs 1-15  GWs 16-37
FPL Goal Involvement % 0 34
Touches per match 55.3 45.2
Pen box touches 3.4 4.1
XG per match 0.1 0.3
Goals per match 0 0.2
Shots per match 1.7 2.2
Shots on target per match 0.3 0.7
Big chances 0 0.4
Assists 0 0.2
Chances Created 1.5 1.1
Big Chances Created 0.1 0.2

The above table highlights three key findings since Hasenhüttl’s hire.

Firstly, Redmond is less involved in the overall play, averaging 10 fewer touches per match.

This is also the case when you look at touches in the opponent’s half and the final third.

However, secondly, Redmond’s goal threat has significantly improved.

This is hardly surprising given that under Hughes, Redmond failed to deliver an attacking return.

Even still, there is a huge increase in almost every goal threat metric since the Welshman’s departure.

Redmond has been averaging 0.5 more shots per match, 0.4 more shots on target and 0.4 more big chances per match.

This could be partly explained by the fact he is having more touches in the penalty box, hence he is getting into more threatening positions.

It does seem as if Redmond’s owners will be less frustrated than in the past

Finally, we see that Redmond is creating 0.4 fewer chances per match.

What is noticeable, however, is that he is now creating better quality chances as illustrated by the 0.1 increase in big chances created.

The quality of these opportunities has seen him assist four goals for his team-mates since Gameweek 16.

The overall impact on FPL points has been dramatic, increasing from 2.3 per match prior to Gameweek 16 to 4.2 afterwards.

So what has changed since Hasenhüttl’s arrival? One key thing is Redmond’s position.

Rather than playing as an orthodox winger where he started the majority of matches during Hughes’s reign, he has started to take up a more central berth.

Redmond has only started out wide on two occasions under Hasenhüttl, with the Austrian favouring him as a central attacking midfielder or second striker.

This is also backed up by his heat maps (see below).

Hasenhüttl gave some further insight during in an interview with Sky Sports just weeks into his tenure.

“Before I came here he had one assist and no goals. Then in the last two games, he has one assist and one goal. That’s what I expect from such a player. When he works like the last two games it’s not surprising he has scored more because he deserves to. First work for the team and then you will see you get more chances. It’s all about also being in the net if we win the ball because then in the perfect position to get the ball otherwise if he is parking outside then we have no chance to bring him in to play. When in play, he is real quality.” – Ralph Hasenhüttl

So Southampton’s manager puts Redmond’s importance to the team down to an increased work rate and winning the ball back in the correct areas of the pitch.

It is clear that he favours the former Norwich City man in a more central and advanced role where he can be more influential.

How Does Redmond compare with other mid-priced midfielders?

I am sure it comes as no surprise that, between Gameweeks 1 and 15, Redmond did not compare favourably to other midfielders in the same price bracket.

He was only ranked in the top 20 for two statistics – shots and penalty box touches. In relation to the former, whilst he registered 25 attempts, only 7 were in the box.

However, there is a significant improvement from Gameweek 16 onwards.

The below table shows how Redmond compares with similarly priced midfielders (below £7m).

He is now top for expected goals (xG) with 6.88, expected goal involvement (xGI) with 10 and shots on target with 16.

Redmond also ranks second for penalty box touches, third for shots and fourth for big chances.

The above has resulted in him achieving 10 attacking returns in 22 matches which is also marked improvement.

The only players to surpass this figure are Diogo Jota (15), Gerard Deulofeu (12), Ryan Fraser (11) and Luka Milivojevic (11).

The only area in which Redmond noticeably falls short is in his goal conversion.

Whilst he is clearly getting quality chances he has only converted 10% of his shots.

Jota (21%), Deulofeu (19%) and Ryan Babel (19%) are examples of similar players who have approximately double the conversion rate.

Redmond’s finishing also comes in to question when analysing his big chance conversion rate as he has only scored three of his nine opportunities considered to be big by Opta (33%).

Babel is also lagging in this category, having only converted 36% of his big chances.

Jota and Deulofeu have been demonstrating more ruthlessness in front of goal converting 58 and 67% respectively.

What does the future hold for Redmond?

Having been crowned the Southampton ‘Player of the Year’ the future is looking bright for Redmond. In recent matches, his underlying statistics remain impressive and it is just a question of whether he can convert his opportunities into FPL points.

As highlighted above there are several players who are more clinical in front of goal. With Huddersfield at home on the final day of the season, I am sure he will be a popular selection this week.

As for whether he can be a key option for 2019/20 campaign, it will ultimately depend on his price and whether he can build on the improvements made since Gameweek 16 of 2018/19.

783 Comments Post a Comment
  1. Gegenpress
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 16 days ago

    What order would you rank the below 3 for GW38? (Who will get the highest points).

    1) Arny
    2) Bilva
    3) Redmond

    1. Jᴀʀᴠish
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 16 days ago

      3 1 2

  2. #FPLBhuna
    • 2 Years
    1 month, 16 days ago

    Bottomed

    Thoughts on

    eriksen + robertson > salah + 4.5m def(-8)

    would captain salah over mane and bench the 4.5m def and play valery

    1. Retro
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 16 days ago

      You'd have to be very lucky for that to pay off. Absolute best case, Salah goes crazy for you. I've rarely seen a -8 pay off like that. Having said that, I'm considering Salah myself for -4...

      1. #FPLBhuna
        • 2 Years
        1 month, 16 days ago

        Yeah you’re probably right mane but a Salah brace and mane blank would hurt!

  3. Orion
    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 16 days ago

    Hazard to Sterling for a hit, yes or no? Have Kun and Bilva as well...

    1. HollywoodXI
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 16 days ago

      No

    2. SoShy
      • 3 Years
      1 month, 16 days ago

      Have Kun and Bsilva as well, cant decide between Salah & Raz

  4. SoShy
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 16 days ago

    Any stats to decide between Sterling and Salah?

    1. Wild Rover
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      • 8 Years
      1 month, 16 days ago

      You really need stats for that? You really need both but if not possible go with your gut.

      1. Syd.
        • 10 Years
        1 month, 16 days ago

        To be fair it could go anyway

        1. Wild Rover
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 16 days ago

          Exactly why stats are irrelevant.

    2. Syd.
      • 10 Years
      1 month, 16 days ago

      Comparison tool in the members area

      1. Wild Rover
        • Fantasy Football Scout Member
        • 8 Years
        1 month, 16 days ago

        I’ll see you there 😉

        1. Syd.
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 16 days ago

          Can you lend me a fiver

    3. svg53
      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
      1 month, 16 days ago

      Not a stats man but eye test says Salah in good form and at home.Sterling gone off a little lately and away.

  5. Bohemian Rhapsody
      1 month, 16 days ago

      4 points behind to win the league. 0FT with 0.6.
      I did already do Son to Pogba.
      Appreciate your insights.

      Foster
      TAA / Valery / Kelly
      Hazard / Sterling / Mane / Pogba
      Jimenez / Long / Aguero

      (Ryan / Jota / Boly / Dunk)

      1. BEATaroundDEBUCHY
        • 1 Year
        1 month, 16 days ago

        Looks fine... other than pogba 😉

        1. Bohemian Rhapsody
            1 month, 16 days ago

            Pogba... you think its mistake?
            I guess i wasted my FT.

      2. Bruce Lee
          1 month, 16 days ago

          Rashford, Son, Tripper ➡ Long, Sterling, Shaw

          -4 and Sterling (c)

          Yay or nay?

          1. BEATaroundDEBUCHY
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 16 days ago

            Utd have shown they can rarely keep a clean sheet.

        • rnrd
          • 4 Years
          1 month, 16 days ago

          Would you play
          A - gray (WHU)
          B- Jiménez (liv)

          ?!

        • TeddiPonza
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 16 days ago

          Which option?

          A. Son, Jota and Jimenez out for Pogba, Redmond and Rash (-4)
          B. Kola and Son out for TAA and Moura (play Jota and Jimi)

          A. Seems more fun at least....

        • HD7
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 16 days ago

          Long or Ings bigger chance to start ?
          or both ?

          1. abaalan
            • 3 Years
            1 month, 16 days ago

            Wondering the same. Own Ings but not sure whether to take a hit to get Vardy or wood instead

        • Syd.
          • 10 Years
          1 month, 16 days ago

          The question in the article should be - Can Southampton be trusted

          1. Pad Randa
            • 7 Years
            1 month, 16 days ago

            Defense: yes (mainly because I can't trust HUD to score). Everything else - eeehhhh...

        • Jimmy Boy
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 2 Years
          1 month, 16 days ago

          Son to:
          A) Fraser
          B) Deulofeu
          C) Lucas Moura
          D) Pogba
          E) Ozil/Mkhi

          1. HollywoodXI
            • 4 Years
            1 month, 16 days ago

            D - I have a gut feeling he’s going to haul.

            1. Dthinger
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 16 days ago

              I have a gut feeling he's going to get benched

              1. HollywoodXI
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Maybe. OGS didn’t suggest that’s likely during his presser - “one or two of the kids will play”.

              2. Hazardous Matarial
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                His last utd game. Won't be benched

            2. Syd.
              • 10 Years
              1 month, 16 days ago

              If he did it would certainly defy all form as he has been awful of late

              1. HollywoodXI
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Agreed. But had both shots gone in (rather than hitting the bar) last week do you think people would be looking at him differently?

                1. Hazardous Matarial
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Has best stats of all utd attackers

        • Wild Rover
          • Fantasy Football Scout Member
          • 8 Years
          1 month, 16 days ago

          A lot of hits flying around, nice to have the big six without a hit 😎

          1. Syd.
            • 10 Years
            1 month, 16 days ago

            Does the big six include Luke Shaw?

            1. Wild Rover
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 8 Years
              1 month, 16 days ago

              Only going by waist size

          2. Amey
              1 month, 16 days ago

              Actually, I've started to love this idea of swapping big hitters for favorable fixtures since my second WC.
              Might go heavy on defense next season & keep swapping big hitters according to © needs.
              Mane, Hazard worked out well for last two gw's.
              So I'm spoiled & taking hit again this gw 😛

              1. Wild Rover
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Laporte, Sterling, Aguero, TAA, Mane, Salah

                I’m benching Son, nothing worth a hit imo

                1. Amey
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    Wow. That's great.
                    I'm very impatient.
                    But i enjoy going for boom or blast 😀

                    1. Wild Rover
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 8 Years
                      1 month, 16 days ago

                      So do I, Ive made 69 transfers but hits are rarely worth it for one week unless you can’t put out a decent team

                  • #FPLBhuna
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    Damn you. 🙁

                    I’m considering a -8 to complete the big 6...

                    Have sterling, kun, laporte, robbo, Trent, mane

                    The -8 would including binning robbo and Eriksen 🙁

                    It’s probably a no go isn’t it?

                    1. Wild Rover
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 8 Years
                      1 month, 16 days ago

                      I think Robbo will play if that helps

                      1. #FPLBhuna
                        • 2 Years
                        1 month, 16 days ago

                        I know pal, still feel like I want salah

                        Ah this game. Grr lol

              2. Burger
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                20pt hit here, I'm coming for all you bishes! 😀

            • dunas_dog
              • Fantasy Football Scout Member
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 16 days ago

              Son and Jimenez with free transfers to- quite liking A as Tielemans being overlooked a bit- but which do you think?

              A Tielemans Wilson
              B Redmond Vardy
              C Fraser Vardy
              D Pogba Wilson

              1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 16 days ago

                I like the Tielemans idea myself I’m thinking about him over Pogba

              2. SomeoneKnows
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                I'm also contemplating between Tielemans and Fraser. My second transfer is Vardy so I'm not sure I want two Leicester players

            • ZAWAd25
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 16 days ago

              Play Long or JWP?

              1. Wild Rover
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 8 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Surely if you own both you play both?

                1. ZAWAd25
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Have to bench one my front 8 are

                  Salah Moura Mane Bilva JWP
                  Aguero Wilson Long

                  1. Gnu
                    • 9 Years
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    Has to be Long imo.

            • Miguel Sanchez
              • 2 Years
              1 month, 16 days ago

              Bring in:

              A) Kompany
              B) Redmond

              1. Amey
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  B 😉

              2. HD7
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Are there any Gray owners out there?
                Will you start him, mates?

                1. Garth Marenghi
                  • 3 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Yes

              3. tg04
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Hojberg for Babel/Deulofeu for a -4? If so, which one - I’m undecided, hence this post. Thanks.

              4. Daghe Munegu
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Vardy or Wilson?

                1. Dakes.
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Jamieeee

                  1. Daghe Munegu
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    But why? Is Chelsea that bad?

                    1. Lord in Wengerland
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 16 days ago

                      This ganes has Leicester 2-0 written in the stars. Why should Chelsea be arsed?

                    2. AuFeld
                      • 2 Years
                      1 month, 16 days ago

                      Tired legs bodes well for Vardy.

              5. Revival
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Play Llorente or Jimenez?
                I have double Liverpool defence.

              6. AYLD28
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                What’s everyone’s transfers for Son? Are we overthinking the straight swap for Pogba?

                1. RECKLESS
                  • 6 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Frased. Form over fixtures alaays. Thats only thing that helped me get to top 700. Only time form doesnt matter is when we think of Sterlin amd salah. If had been lucky with them, could have challenged all the way

                  1. RECKLESS
                    • 6 Years
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    Fraser always*

                  2. AYLD28
                    • 3 Years
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    You mean Fraser right?

                    1. RECKLESS
                      • 6 Years
                      1 month, 16 days ago

                      Half drunk after great friday night so mistype

                2. Oscar Slater
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Au contraire. Getting him instead of the likes of Babel is overthinking things. He and his team just haven't been doing it for a while.

              7. pelle9
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Best pick:

                A) Play Jimenez

                B) Do Son > Pogba and bench Jimenez

                Thanks guys.

                1. Boz
                  • 7 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  B if free, A if it would be for a hit

              8. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
                • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                • 1 Year
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Any Holberg owners playing him this week??

                1. Dakes.
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Would have but am replacing Son instead and playing his replacement who’s probably bernardo

                  1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    Yeah that’s what il do Holberg first sub I have Bilva already Son wil become Pogba or Tielemans I think

                2. Oscar Slater
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 4 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  I suppose if you own him then there's absolutely no better time to play him than at home against Huddersfield.

                  1. 1912 F.A Cup Winners
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    Yeah I guess so mate not inspiring tho he will be my first sub probably

              9. Lexi2014
                • 4 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Robertson fit? Sorry I’d repeat question been out of the loop!

                1. Dakes.
                  • 2 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Klopp said and I quote, that he’s “fine”. Whatever that means!!

                  Hope he plays and outscores Trent

              10. RECKLESS
                • 6 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Looking to end in top 500. Currently 678. Is Valery to TAA worth a -4? Or valery has as much chance of cleanie/attack vs Hud as TAA vs Wolves

                1. Boz
                  • 7 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Stick with Val

              11. Dakes.
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Shouldn’t play Højbjerg over Jimenez... right?

                1. Wild Rover
                  • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                  • 8 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Right

                  1. Dakes.
                    • 2 Years
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    Good 😆

                2. Gnu
                  • 9 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Hmmm.
                  I might go for Saints guy but I'm no wild Rover

                  1. Wild Rover
                    • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                    • 8 Years
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    They’ll both likely get 2pts but Jimi could be a consolation for losing your Pool cleanses 🙂

                    1. Gnu
                      • 9 Years
                      1 month, 16 days ago

                      I'm beyond consolation thus season 😉

              12. ASAP Rocky
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Does Hazard > Mane make sense?

                Salah - Hazard - Sterling - Brooks - Moura

                Jimenez - Rondon - Rashford

                1. RECKLESS
                  • 6 Years
                  1 month, 16 days ago

                  Brooks 100% out so first replace brooks to fraser

                  1. ASAP Rocky
                    • 7 Years
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    I likely won't play Brooks. Thinking of also doing Jimenez > Wilson

                    1. ASAP Rocky
                      • 7 Years
                      1 month, 16 days ago

                      Meaning, no need to transfer him out if I'm starting 3 forwards.

              13. Dakes.
                • 2 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Bednarek G and CS this Sunday would be splendid

              14. Boz
                • 7 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Start:

                A) Jota
                B) Jiménez
                C) JWP

              15. Jedi_Reed
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                A) Risk it for a biscuit and start Andre Gray?

                B) Play Jiménez and enjoy those sweet 2 points?

              16. MFC86
                • 3 Years
                1 month, 16 days ago

                Hazard to Salah for -4 then TC Salah???

                1. "DC"
                    1 month, 16 days ago

                    go for it,Hazard might not start