Scout Picks

Gameweek 38 Scout Picks – Goals expected outside Man City and Liverpool games

We’ve included three attacking players from Liverpool and Manchester City for our final Scout Picks of the season.

The two title-chasing clubs may be the only ones with anything left on the line to play for other than proud, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be goals elsewhere.

Using the Scout Squad submissions by Paul, Neale, Az and Peter, and an analysis of the Fantasy Football Scout members data, we have come up with a XI for you.

For the last time in 2018/19, we line up in a 3-4-3 formation and at a total cost of £82.8m, we are £0.7m inside our budget.

Goalkeeper

Sergio Rico (£4.4m) finds himself in the Scout Picks at just the right time to make sure we didn’t go the whole season without including one of Fulham’s defensive assets. Name-checked by three of our pundits, and selected as the best option by Paul, the Cottagers’ shot-stopper faces a Newcastle attack that has managed just three big chances in their last six away matches, the worst of any team in that time. Meanwhile, no goalkeeper has more saves than Rico in their last six at home.

Defender

Aymeric Laporte (£6.3m) was an easy inclusion for the Gameweek 38 Scout Picks. Manchester City have kept 10 clean sheets in their last 12 Premier League outings and travel to Brighton on the final day of the season. The Seagulls are bottom of the league for shots on target, big chances and goal conversion over their last six at home. Laporte himself has added two attacking returns in the last six Gameweeks and his threat from set pieces is always in his favour.

Trent Alexander-Arnold (£5.8m) is once again our chosen representative from the Liverpool defence. Price continues to be on the right-back’s side as well as his attacking potential. Compared to colleagues Andrew Robertson and Virgil van Dijk, the England international has the superior minutes per chance and minutes per chance created in the last six home matches. In that time, Liverpool are in the top two for fewest shots allowed in the box and big chances conceded.

Luke Shaw (£5.0m) completes our three-man defence ahead of Cardiff’s trip to Old Trafford. Manchester United may not be in the best form right now but the Bluebirds have been sufficiently poor on their travels this season that we believe a clean sheet at least is on the cards. In their last six away matches, Cardiff have been in the bottom two for shots inside the box and big chances. Meanwhile, Shaw himself has created more big chances than any other defender in the last six matches.

Midfielders

Mohamed Salah (£13.3m) should be back in the Liverpool side on Sunday afternoon for the visit of Wolves following his concussion and he comes into Gameweek 38 as the Scout Squad’s unanimous best midfield option. The Egyptian remains on an incredible run of form that has seen him get at least one attacking return in each of his last six matches in a row – his longest stretch without a blank all season. In those fixtures, no player has registered more shots on goal, efforts in the box or shots on target than Salah either. Wolves might have a good record against the top-six but considering they rarely keep clean sheets, Liverpool’s Egyptian star certainly has what it takes to reward his owners in Gameweek 38.

Raheem Sterling (£11.7m) is our chosen Manchester City attacker for the trip to Brighton. In the last six away matches, none of his colleagues has managed more shots in the box or efforts on target, while he also has the best expected goals (xG) score among Manchester City players in that sample. That has translated to 11 attacking returns on the road this season, more than any of his team-mates in 2018/19.

Sadio Mané (£10.3m) has been one of the most reliable attacking options in home matches this season. The Liverpool man has 12 goals in his 11 Premier League outings at Anfield, which have come from some encouraging underlying statistics. In the last four at home he has the second-highest number of big chances among all players, as well as the second-best xG too. Just as is the case with Salah, Wolves’ have asked tough questions away at top-six sides in 2018/19 but are yet to keep a clean sheet.

Nathan Redmond (£5.5m) looks like one of the most appealing budget midfielder for Gameweek 38 as Southampton host Huddersfield on Sunday afternoon. The Terriers are bottom of the league for shots allowed in the box over the last six away matches, as well as for their 18 goals shipped. Meanwhile, Redmond currently ranks fourth for big chances and third for xG out of all players in their last four at home.

Forwards

Jamie Vardy (£9.0m) looks set to enjoy the final day of the 2018/19 season. In the last four home matches, no player has registered shots inside the box, more efforts on target or more big chances. That has yielded five goals and an assist ahead of a meeting with Chelsea at the King Power Stadium. The Blues are still without a clean sheet on the road in 2019, will be without the injured N’Golo Kanté and Antonio Rüdiger while doubts hang over the fitness of Andreas Christensen too. Furthermore, Chelsea come to Leicester just a few days after playing 120 minutes against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League, which will have almost certainly drained them physically and mentally.

After Bournemouth’s troubles on their travels earlier this season, Callum Wilson (£6.8m) has all of a sudden become the king of football on the road in the closing stages of the campaign. In the last four away matches, no fit player has been afforded more big chances or a higher xG score. Furthermore, in such games, Wilson is also second-best for shots on target, so he stands a good chance of converting his opportunities. His Gameweek 38 opponents Crystal Palace are in the bottom four for goal attempts conceded in the box over the last four home matches, are without centre-backs James Tomkins and Mamadou Sakho while Scott Dann is now a doubt.

Shane Long (£4.7m) completes our Scout Picks team for Gameweek 38 as another option who gets to enjoy facing that travel sick Huddersfield side. We’ve already covered how vulnerable the Terriers will be when they come to Southampton, as Redmond also has decent points potential this week. Long himself has actually been afforded more big chances than the midfielder in his last four home matches, ranking third best in the whole league. His accuracy of 57% over that period suggests his chances of converted more big opportunities are quite high.

Substitutes

Budget man Yan Valery (£4.1m) gets a place on the bench for Gameweek 38 ahead of Huddersfield’s visit to Southampton. The Saints have not exactly been adept at keeping clean sheets under Ralph Hasenhüttl but their visitors on Sunday remain the division’s joint-lowest scorers on the road in 2018/19.

Like his colleague Wilson, Ryan Fraser (£6.3m) has been impressive on the road of late with six attacking returns in his last Premier League away trips. He will also get to play against a potentially makeshift Crystal Palace side who have struggled at home this season.

Marcus Rashford (£7.3m) is probably one of the few attacking Manchester United options we can be confident will get a start against Cardiff on Sunday afternoon. There is not a great deal of form to go on for the forward but given the Bluebirds are in the bottom three for shots conceded in the box over the last six away matches, he should get plenty of chances.

Community Champion

Representing the community against the Scout Picks in Gameweek 38 is Karan14. He has opted for a 3-4-3 of Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Van Dijk, Kompany, Laporte; Redmond, Bernardo Silva, Pogba; Wood, Mitrovic, Zaha

The community member who beats our picks by the biggest margin over the campaign will win a £100 Amazon Voucher and a place in our Contributors and Moderators League for the following season.

It was a win for the Scout Picks over Greyhead in Gameweek 37 by a 46-45 scoreline. fclackless‘s winning margin of 33 points (77-44) in Gameweek 10 is still the current target to beat.

3,966 Comments Post a Comment
  1. fridge
    • 7 Years
    1 month, 6 days ago

    I'm 31 points behind 1st in my ML, with 0.1 ITB and 1FT which would you do?

    Lloris
    Robbo. Bednarek. Doherty
    Salah (c) Mane. Pog. JWP
    Kun. Ings. Jiminez

    A) Duffy > AWB
    B) Doh & Jimi > AWB & Wilson (-4)
    C) Duffy & Jota > AWB & Fraser (-4)
    D) something else?

    1. 420king
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 6 days ago

      Depends on how many good differentials you have already, if you feel like you need more then B or C look reasonable because of the bigger ceiling.

  2. pol
    • 8 Years
    1 month, 6 days ago

    Which 2 do you think score the most this week:

    A- Fraser
    B- Pogba
    C- Zaha
    D- Wilson
    E- TAA
    F- Vardy

    1. zm82
      • 4 Years
      1 month, 6 days ago

      My guess is E and F or D and F. Pogba might score big, even though United look very out of form.

  3. Yiod14
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 6 days ago

    Percentage chance Lacazette starts? Shall I do Laca to Rashford?

  4. Nightf0x
    • 3 Years
    1 month, 6 days ago

    Bottomed
    Team (Loris Robbo taa valery Sterling mane redmond deulofeu Aguero rash X*) bench (Foster - bednarek & 2 of these doherty jimy son)

    Which??

    A- doherty to laporte, 442
    B- son to pogba/fraser/bsilva, 352
    C- jimy to wilson/zaha, 343
    D- doherty son -4 to laporte pogba/fraser, 352 valery bench
    E- doherty jimy -4 to laporte wilson/zaha, 343 valery bench

  5. Would Ed Woodward
      1 month, 6 days ago

      I'm gonna end up with double Southampton defence tomorrow, great.

      1. RobertoBaggio
          1 month, 6 days ago

          Bednarek subbed on for Shaw? Ha we are in similar spots

          1. Would Ed Woodward
              1 month, 6 days ago

              Strangely similar it seems, lol.

          2. FlockofSeagulls
            • 1 Year
            1 month, 6 days ago

            I'm confident Shaw will start unless he has an injury we aren't aware of. Just won player of the year and fans player of the season so can't see Ole dropping him for the final home game.

        • Tsparkes10
            1 month, 6 days ago

            Right then... A top 50k first season finish is in the horizon. Somehow depending on Lucas M, Rondon, Fraser and Origi to name a few.

            Sorry for being an annoying little noob at times, especially to TM ;). GL everyone and if I'm not bragging tomorrow then you'll know I failed.

            1. RobertoBaggio
                1 month, 6 days ago

                Best of luck!

            2. St. Joseph
              • 3 Years
              1 month, 6 days ago

              Play one :
              A) Jota
              B) A. Gray
              C) Bednarek

              *Already playing Valery

            3. Niho992
                1 month, 6 days ago

                I would like to thx everyone for help in this season. My first year on this site and personally the best OR for me ever.

                1. Tsparkes10
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    How you set up and what's OR? GL mate 🙂

                    1. Niho992
                        1 month, 6 days ago

                        OR 5.5 K

                        Still didnt set up. I will make transfer before games 10-15 minutes 😀
                        Thx, and GL to you too

                  • 420king
                    • 4 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    Need your help. Have a 3 point lead in my ML so I'd at least try to play it smart even if it doesn't go my way in the end.
                    Still have my TC but not feeling too optimistic that it'll make the difference.

                    His team:
                    Gauita
                    TAA Robertson Duffy
                    Sterling Mane BSilva Moura Fraser
                    Agüero Rashford
                    (Boruc Jimenez Lindelöf* Shaw*)
                    0 FT, 0.0 ITB

                    He might take a hit to replace Shaw and bench Duffy since he thinks City are going to score big, same reason he might C Sterling/Agüero.

                    My team:
                    Foster
                    TAA Laporte Valery
                    Sterling Mane Pogba JWP Son*
                    Agüero Zaha
                    (Ryan Jimenez Doherty Duffy)
                    1 FT, 0.0 ITB

                    1. Son replacement? Cover his Fraser or go something else like Redmond?
                    2. Who to TC? Agüero has best odds but I'm worried about his away form, Sterling also only has 1 assist in last four.
                    3. Anyone from starting 11 a doubt/anything worth a hit?

                    1. 420king
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      Hopeless?

                  • Afghanistanislas
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    Which would you go for:

                    A) Pogba and Fraser
                    B) Pogba and Redmond
                    C) Vardy and Redmond

                    1. Afghanistanislas
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      (I have Long as well if it makes any difference)

                    2. Ojpsan1
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      A

                    3. 420king
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      A probably, although bookies think B.

                  • K_UN_DE_BRU_YNE
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    I am gonna end my season with:
                    3*Liverpool
                    2*city
                    1*spurs
                    1*Watford
                    2*SOTON
                    1*bournmouth
                    1*chelsea

                    Bench:
                    2*wolves
                    1*palace

                    Have a wonderful break to you all.
                    GL for the last GW !!!
                    Cheers!!!

                  • Ojpsan1
                    • 1 Year
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    A) Foster + Laporte

                    B) Ederson + Valery

                    1. 420king
                      • 4 Years
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      Based on just CS odds, B.

                    2. Afghanistanislas
                      • 1 Year
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      B

                    3. Yank Revolution
                      • 7 Years
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      B

                  • Scotty B
                    • 7 Years
                    1 month, 6 days ago

                    De Gea
                    Cathcart VVD Bednarek
                    Salah Son Babel Mane
                    Lacazette Jimenèz Wilson

                    Gunn Richarlison Doherty Dunk

                    Which moves to make today?
                    A Richarlison & Son > Pogba & Moura
                    B Son & Jimenèz > Moura & Vardy
                    C Son & Jimenèz > Alli/Pogba & Rashford
                    D Something else?

                    1. Mince n Tatties
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      D. You need some Man City in your team

                      1. Scotty B
                        • 7 Years
                        1 month, 6 days ago

                        None really appeal who I can afford now

                    2. RobertoBaggio
                        1 month, 6 days ago

                        Laca and Son out for City coverage? 2 ft?

                        1. Scotty B
                          • 7 Years
                          1 month, 6 days ago

                          No it's for a hit

                    3. Mince n Tatties
                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                      • 5 Years
                      1 month, 6 days ago

                      Morning Lads n Lassies

                      Who will score more?

                      A. Rashford & Long
                      B. Wilson & Ings

                      Cheers!

                      1. RobertoBaggio
                          1 month, 6 days ago

                          Close but prefer Wilson so B.

                      2. Dakes.
                        • 2 Years
                        1 month, 6 days ago

                        Transfers done! (Haz Son to Salah Fraser) How does it look?

                        Lloris (speroni)
                        Robertson* Laporte Bednarek (doherty kelly)
                        Salah(c) Mane Pogba Fraser (højbjerg)
                        Aguero Vardy Jiménez

                        Slightly worried losing Haz but oh well! Good luck all

                        1. RobertoBaggio
                            1 month, 6 days ago

                            Decent

                            1. Dakes.
                              • 2 Years
                              1 month, 6 days ago

                              Cheers. “It’ll do” then 🙂

                        2. Viper
                          • 9 Years
                          1 month, 6 days ago

                          Do you think it would be mad to start this front 7 and bench Son?

                          Salah Sterling Redmond Jota

                          Wilson Aguero Llorente

                          Son out would be a -4, wouldn't be able to afford Pogba

                          1. RobertoBaggio
                              1 month, 6 days ago

                              I like it

                          2. RobertoBaggio
                              1 month, 6 days ago

                              For anyone who fancies a punt, who scores more?

                              A) Lloris Valery Delf Rashers + 30points

                              B) Ederson Rico Kelly Doh Awb Robbo Babel Wilson Jimmy

                              1. RobertoBaggio
                                  1 month, 6 days ago

                                  Roll up, roll up and pick you winner folks!

                              2. rohaansunil
                                  1 month, 6 days ago

                                  Redmond, Fraser or Moura ?

                                  1. RobertoBaggio
                                      1 month, 6 days ago

                                      Fraser for me

                                      1. rohaansunil
                                          1 month, 6 days ago

                                          Thanks!

                                    • Powers106
                                      • Fantasy Football Scout Member
                                      • 3 Years
                                      1 month, 6 days ago

                                      On my WC this week, trying to save money, what about going Forster (SOU) with bench Travers (BOU)?

                                      Will they both play? seemed like they both played last GW

                                      Thanks!

                                      1. Hart-ake
                                        • 2 Years
                                        1 month, 6 days ago

                                        Gunn is definitely playing so don’t get Forster! Manager said so on Fri.

                                      2. Niho992
                                          1 month, 6 days ago

                                          Forster wont play.

                                        • RobertoBaggio
                                            1 month, 6 days ago

                                            Gunn plays

                                        • Hart-ake
                                          • 2 Years
                                          1 month, 6 days ago

                                          Quite worried as an owner of both Robbo and Shaw!

                                          1. RobertoBaggio
                                              1 month, 6 days ago

                                              Backups?

                                              1. Hart-ake
                                                • 2 Years
                                                1 month, 6 days ago

                                                Kola and Dunk.

                                          2. valuewizard
                                              1 month, 6 days ago

                                              1FT

                                              Son > Pogba 4 free (rival has him) or any other mid ?
                                              or Son and Jimmy > Fraser & Vardy -4 ??

                                              Bench is horrible

                                              1. RobertoBaggio
                                                  1 month, 6 days ago

                                                  Ahead or chasing? I like the hit

                                                  1. valuewizard
                                                      1 month, 6 days ago

                                                      i can do the hit. But it is vardy + fraser or pogba + wilson.

                                                      1. RobertoBaggio
                                                          1 month, 6 days ago

                                                          Prefer Vardy over Pogba but it's close

                                                    • Team Bobcat
                                                      • 2 Years
                                                      1 month, 6 days ago

                                                      Think watford are completely overlooked om here. Deulofeu my pick as a son replacement and capable of everything others have to offer

                                                  2. Niho992
                                                      1 month, 6 days ago

                                                      Son to

                                                      A:Pogba
                                                      B:Fraser
                                                      C: Moura

                                                      or

                                                      Jimenez to Rondon

                                                      1. RobertoBaggio
                                                          1 month, 6 days ago

                                                          B

                                                        • Hart-ake
                                                          • 2 Years
                                                          1 month, 6 days ago

                                                          I’m doing b I think.

                                                      2. nibby
                                                        • 6 Years
                                                        1 month, 6 days ago

                                                        Chasing my leauge leader by 5 points. He is going to cap Sterling or Mane. Who should i cap?

                                                        A) Kun
                                                        B) Redmond
                                                        C) Pogba
                                                        D) Sterling (dont want to as my opponent will cap him)

                                                        THANKS IN ADVANCE

                                                        1. RobertoBaggio
                                                            1 month, 6 days ago

                                                            5 points not much just got with your gut

                                                        2. Felice
                                                            1 month, 6 days ago

                                                            Ings in???

                                                          • iL PiStOlErO
                                                              1 month, 6 days ago

                                                              Hey guys any suggestions what to do with this crew?

                                                              Foster
                                                              Robertson Shaw Valery
                                                              Salah Son Jota Delofeu
                                                              Kun Laca Jimenez

                                                              bench: Ryan Hojbjerg Bennet Duffy

                                                              1.1 itb, 1ft

                                                              I was thinking maybe Son&Laca to Sterling&Zaha for -4. Or maybe not?

                                                            • ⚒Jay⚒ American Dycho
                                                              • 4 Years
                                                              1 month, 6 days ago

                                                              Greenwood or Long?

                                                              1. Hart-ake
                                                                • 2 Years
                                                                1 month, 6 days ago

                                                                Long.

                                                              2. FlockofSeagulls
                                                                • 1 Year
                                                                1 month, 6 days ago

                                                                Greenwood. Live a little.

                                                            • SAY MY NAME
                                                              • 1 Year
                                                              1 month, 6 days ago

                                                              Why are people worried over Shaw? I've not read anything

                                                              1. 420king
                                                                • 4 Years
                                                                1 month, 6 days ago

                                                                Didn't make the squad according to MEN.

                                                                1. SAY MY NAME
                                                                  • 1 Year
                                                                  1 month, 6 days ago

                                                                  wow that really screws my team, I've got woeful backup this week, cheers for the info

                                                            • Scotty B
                                                              • 7 Years
                                                              1 month, 6 days ago

                                                              If getting a Spurs mid which one would you get?

                                                              A Eriksen
                                                              B Alli
                                                              C Moura

                                                            • Grounderz
                                                              • 7 Years
                                                              1 month, 6 days ago

                                                              I am one point behind the ML leader as we are both on course to winning iPhone X.

                                                              What is your suggestion with this team? Go all in for a (-4) or stay safe with the only FT?

                                                              My Team:
                                                              Gunn/ Ryan
                                                              TAA/ Vert*/ Valery/ Duffy/ Dunk
                                                              Sterling/ Hazard/ Son*/ Jota/ Camarasa
                                                              Kun/ Rash/ Jimenez

                                                              1 FT only and 1.4 ITB

                                                              His team:
                                                              Leno/ Boruc
                                                              TAA/ Doherty/ Boly/ Valery/ AWB
                                                              Salah/ Sterling/ Mane/ Son/ Elliott
                                                              Kun/ Jimenez/ Long

                                                              He has used his FT.

                                                            • ANDERSON 2000
                                                                1 month, 6 days ago

                                                                GTG? Captain who?

                                                                Foster
                                                                TAA Laporte Shaw
                                                                Salah Mane Sterling Lucas
                                                                Aguero Wilson Long
                                                                (Boruc Valery Jota Doh)